Is Josh a mediocre QB right now? And does it matter?

[Beck Water]

Now hear me out 😈

 

I started out 'salty' about the "Josh Allen most interceptions in last 2 years".  I said, said I, "but Josh has the most continuous starts of any player, let alone QB - so how does that play into it? And also, he throws a ton of passing TDs, so surely that compensates".   Since I'm a datageek, here's what I did:

-pulled regular season data from 2021, 2022, and 2023 out of pro-football-reference

-Excel pivot table to sum data by QB

-calculate interceptions, TD, 1D, and Yards per game, to normalize data for different numbers of starts

-multiply by 35 games to get it out of decimal form that is hard to interpret when we're used to thinking about integer numbers

 

This actually isn't what  I thought I was going to find.  I thought when normalized by starts, Josh Allen would NOT be leading in # of INT.  And he isn't - but he's one behind Davis Mills, tied with Sam Darnold, and one ahead of Matt Stafford and Andy Dalton.  Yikes!!!!!  That is not actually company you want your 6 yr vet, big-$$ QB to keep!  Or, I thought if he was still "up there", he would also be "up there" in passing TD to compensate.
 

So here are the data.  (Click to make it readable).  Sorted by TD/INT, Josh Allen is currently 17 on the list.  Now obviously, this isn't the be-all end-all of QB evaluation, since some of the QB listed above him by this metric, are literally unemployed at the moment (Trevor Siemian, Carson Wentz), are backups (Case Keenum) or are retired (Brady). 

I recall Mike Tomlin benching Mason Rudolph after a multi-interception game, saying "we just need someone who won't kill us" (with turnovers).  So as a metric for how much a QB contributes to scoring vs. how much a QB hurts the team by ending possessions with the other team in position to score, I thought this was worth looking at.  And by this metric, allen is below starting Rodgers, Purdy, Goff, Cousins. Mahomes, Geno Smith, Burrow, Herbert, WILSON (!!!!!), Hurts, Prescott, and Tua.

 

Thoughts?  (I can sort it by other parameters if anyone cares).

 

FWIW, my thoughts are that Josh's offensive contributions are still strong enough to allow a team to win with him provided they have a good run game and top defense.  But if we're taking Josh out of the run game, and with aging safeties and a new MLB, I'm not sure we have enough of those last two to get there.  So if we want to win, Josh, Joe Brady, and Ken Dorsey better figure it out - and fast.

Edited September 16, 2023 by Beck Water

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Et tu, Beck Water? 🤔

[Billl]

His running is such a huge part of his game that anything omitting those stats is lacking.  He’s got 13 TDs and 23 fumbles over that period.

[Beck Water]

4 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Et tu, Beck Water? 🤔

 

These are the data.  They didn't take me where I expected they would when I started crunching, or where I wanted them to.

"De rules are de rules and de facts are de facts and when the Cheese Drawer opens, ya gotta pay the tax"

 

3 minutes ago, Billl said:

His running is such a huge part of his game that anything omitting those stats is lacking.  He’s got 13 TDs and 23 fumbles over that period.

 

As stated elsewhere, the last time I looked almost all of Josh's fumbles of the last 2 seasons involve the passing game, not the run game.

 

It's a fair point that I could include fumbles, but we'll be including fumbles for every QB - and the way data is stored on the free sites I use, that's non-trivial for me to add.

 

His running is a huge part of the Bills run game, but Dorsey has publicly stated they are limiting designed runs, so....

Edited September 16, 2023 by Beck Water

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

These are the data.  They didn't take me where I expected they would when I started crunching, or where I wanted them to.

"De rules are de rules and de facts are de facts and when the Cheese Drawer opens, ya gotta pay the tax"

Not denying or disputing your facts.  I just have a case of ATA. (Allen Thread Aversion.)

[Chaos]

Replying to Headine:

No. 

[Beck Water]

Just now, Chaos said:

Replying to Headine:

No. 

 

Fair

2 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Not denying or disputing your facts.  I just have a case of ATA. (Allen Thread Aversion.)

 

Feel free to ignore thread and me

[Coach Tuesday]

Josh Allen is, on many Sundays, the best player for both teams.

[julian]

Wtf is going on with this fan base

[Billl]

4 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

These are the data.  They didn't take me where I expected they would when I started crunching, or where I wanted them to.

"De rules are de rules and de facts are de facts and when the Cheese Drawer opens, ya gotta pay the tax"

 

 

As stated elsewhere, the last time I looked almost all of Josh's fumbles of the last 2 seasons involve the passing game, not the run game.

 

It's a fair point that I could include fumbles, but we'll be including fumbles for every QB - and the way data is stored on the free sites I use, that's non-trivial for me to add.

 

His running is a huge part of the Bills run game, but Dorsey has publicly stated they are limiting designed runs, so....

Fair enough, but I don’t really see how it matters if the fumble occurs on a pass or a run. Either speaks to the level of ball security.  

[Teddy KGB]

What a question 🤦🏼‍♂️🤣🤣

[Beck Water]

Just now, Billl said:

Fair enough, but I don’t really see how it matters if the fumble occurs on a pass or a run. Either speaks to the level of ball security.  

 

I thought you were pointing to the problem (both positive and negative) of omitting run game contributions.

[Low Positive]

1 minute ago, julian said:

Wtf is going on with this fan base

Fear that the dream is over. If Josh has really morphed back into his rookie self, this franchise is absolutely screwed for the next decade. Josh has a 99 million dead cap hit. 

[Beck Water]

2 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Josh Allen is, on many Sundays, the best player for both teams.

 

That's actually, and sadly, not an unreasonable way of looking at some (we can argue about what is meant by "many") of Josh's games.

[julian]

1 minute ago, FrenchConnection said:

Fear that the dream is over. If Josh has really morphed back into his rookie self, this franchise is absolutely screwed for the next decade. Josh has a 99 million dead cap hit. 

Hahahaha this is amazing 

[Beck Water]

7 minutes ago, julian said:

Wtf is going on with this fan base

 

What do you want?  The fan base should only fart unicorns and rainbows while singing "everyone is beautiful in their own way?"

 

Look, I'm the first in line to shoot down random verbiage criticism "he sucks" "he looks frantic" blah blah or unsubstantiated crap "he can't read defenses" "he doesn't prepare".

 

But I'm not going to ignore Cold Hard Football Facts.

 

We all hope Allen gets whatever advice and mentoring he needs and makes whatever mental alterations he needs to rein it in.  But right now it's not good.

Edited September 16, 2023 by Beck Water

[Low Positive]

4 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

What a question 🤦🏼‍♂️🤣🤣

I read this in Yakov Smirnoff's voice.

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

Fear that the dream is over. If Josh has really morphed back into his rookie self, this franchise is absolutely screwed for the next decade. Josh has a 99 million dead cap hit. 

 

Yea I am not that level of concern yet. But I do think the fact we have seen elite Josh just once in 13 games going back to Green Bay suggests there is more than just "he had a bad day" going on. 

 

There are issues with his game right now that need fixing and I think most of the issues are in Josh Allen's head.

[Low Positive]

3 minutes ago, julian said:

Hahahaha this is amazing 

I'm not saying that I agree, but that's what is going on with the board.

[ColoradoBills]

I was a data geek in my job and now that I'm retired, I still have spreadsheets giving me "directions" in my personal life.

 

While I enjoy the data and statistics in football, there are so many variables that go into numbers like this.  When you add in the play

of the complete team rosters, scheduling, team placements in divisions and conferences, weather, coaching and simple good or bad luck

(just to name a few) I have to beware of their results.

 

Josh Allen is an elite athlete and is still young enough for none of us to know what his ultimate career results will be.

We all know how close the team (and by extension) Josh Allen was 2 years ago from winning it all.

My opinion FWIW (and that isn't much).