JA’s big time throw % vs turnover worthy play % since 2020

[BillsFan619]

No one’s denying that JA didn’t have a bad game. He did.

 

Like some say though, it’s typically not as bad as it seems when you’re going through the bad time.

I remember (i’m sure we all do) when he went through a slump in 2021 for a stretch and many were concerned as well. But, he got out of that slump and that slump helped change his game in-year. That’s the same year he went on a tear in the playoffs.

 

While he needs to cut down on the turnovers, here’s an encouraging stat when it comes to his big time throws vs turnover worthy plays since 2020.

 

Go Bills!

 

@Success, @Freddie's Dead, @NewEra

Edited September 16, 2023 by BillsFan619

[balln]

Meaningless without comparative norms

[TheyCallMeAndy]

The turn over narrative after a certain point last year is also false. I though he was an INT machine after the GB game, numbers prove otherwise. 
 

He had more INT in his first 8.5 games than he did the final 8.5 (I believe the totals was 9 before, 5 after)

 

Allen had a tough game, but INTs have never really been a huge issue. He had an awful 3 game stretch last year where he threw 6, but that was in the early-middle of the season. 
 

Allen will be fine. 

[Scott7975]

3 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

The turn over narrative after a certain point last year is also false. I though he was an INT machine after the GB game, numbers prove otherwise. 
 

He had more INT in his first 8.5 games than he did the final 8.5 (I believe the totals was 9 before, 5 after)

 

Allen had a tough game, but INTs have never really been a huge issue. He had an awful 3 game stretch last year where he threw 6, but that was in the early-middle of the season. 
 

Allen will be fine. 

Josh had 2 more Ints last season than Burrow and Mahomes.  Nobody say crap about those two though.  Year before tied with Herbert, one more than Burrow, two more than Mahomes and Jackson, and 3 more than Tom Brady.  It's not that big of a deal.  Most of the bulk of Allens ints are in one or two games. The rest of the season he is pretty much fine.

[Old Coot]

Someone with a better memory than me: Does Josh throw more interceptions than heroic plays against better teams, particularly in the playoffs?

[CSBill]

But the fumbles are the one thing that separates him, and this is where the recklessness shows up.

 

Mahomes, in one more season than Josh, has 10 career lost fumbles. Josh has 21.

                   Games . Fumbles / Lost  .  Interceptions  . Total Turnovers  . Turnover % Pr Game

Allen              78               54 / 21                   63                       84                            1.08

Burrows        43                20 / 9                    31                       40                              .93

L Jackson      71              44 / 16                    39                       55                              .77

Mahomes      81               31 / 10                    50                       60                              .75

 

I realize there are other variables. For example, the number of passes attempted will give you another view of the interception rates. Or total snaps/plays might be a better point of reference for total turnovers. Or fumbles versus running plays. Or touchdowns to turnovers, etc.

 

But the bottom line is our boy commits more turnovers.

 

If he can improve that, he could dominate this league.

 

 

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

what constitutes a turnover "worthy" play?

[TheyCallMeAndy]

15 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Josh had 2 more Ints last season than Burrow and Mahomes.  Nobody say crap about those two though.  Year before tied with Herbert, one more than Burrow, two more than Mahomes and Jackson, and 3 more than Tom Brady.  It's not that big of a deal.  Most of the bulk of Allens ints are in one or two games. The rest of the season he is pretty much fine.

The fumbles are definitely a larger issue, but there was also more of those last year in the first 8.5 games.

 

Of the QBs who throw 550+ times in a season, I’m willing to bet none of them run even half as much as Allen, and none have even a fraction of the ground production. 
 

When you throw more than most, and run more than most, you’re going to have more opportunities for turn overs.

 

More opportunities for scoring too, he’s always in the top 3. 

Edited September 16, 2023 by TheyCallMeAndy

[NewEra]

16 hours ago, BillsFan619 said:

No one’s denying that JA didn’t have a bad game. He did.

 

Like some say though, it’s typically not as bad as it seems when you’re going through the bad time.

I remember (i’m sure we all do) when he went through a slump in 2021 for a stretch and many were concerned as well. But, he got out of that slump and that slump helped change his game in-year. That’s the same year he went on a tear in the playoffs.

 

While he needs to cut down on the turnovers, here’s an encouraging stat when it comes to his big time throws vs turnover worthy plays since 2020.

 

Go Bills!

 

@Success, @Freddie's Dead, @NewEra

I wonder his ratio is over the last 13 games played.  Seems like the turnover worthy plays double the great throws.

 

time to turn things around 17.

[TNBills]

8 hours ago, CSBill said:

But the fumbles are the one thing that separates him, and this is where the recklessness shows up.

 

Mahomes, in one more season than Josh, has 10 career lost fumbles. Josh has 21.

                   Games . Fumbles / Lost  .  Interceptions  . Total Turnovers  . Turnover % Pr Game

Allen              78               54 / 21                   63                       84                            1.08

Burrows        43                20 / 9                    31                       40                              .93

L Jackson      71              44 / 16                    39                       55                              .77

Mahomes      81               31 / 10                    50                       60                              .75

 

I realize there are other variables. For example, the number of passes attempted will give you another view of the interception rates. Or total snaps/plays might be a better point of reference for total turnovers. Or fumbles versus running plays. Or touchdowns to turnovers, etc.

 

But the bottom line is our boy commits more turnovers.

 

If he can improve that, he could dominate this league.

 

 

 

 

Mahomes only played in 1 game in that season before Allen was drafted, so it's the same amount of time. Allen runs the ball more than Mahomes as well. When was the last designed run for Pat?

[Freddie's Dead]

22 hours ago, BillsFan619 said:

No one’s denying that JA didn’t have a bad game. He did.

 

Like some say though, it’s typically not as bad as it seems when you’re going through the bad time.

I remember (i’m sure we all do) when he went through a slump in 2021 for a stretch and many were concerned as well. But, he got out of that slump and that slump helped change his game in-year. That’s the same year he went on a tear in the playoffs.

 

While he needs to cut down on the turnovers, here’s an encouraging stat when it comes to his big time throws vs turnover worthy plays since 2020.

 

Go Bills!

 

@Success, @Freddie's Dead, @NewEra

 

WTF is Big-time throw % and Turnover Worthy Play %?  Sounds like some made up statistical bullsh to me.

[Simon]

The problem with this foolishness is assuming that the Big Time Throw to Turnover ratio should be 2:1 for balance.

 

It should be more like 5:1

[BillsFan619]

48 minutes ago, Simon said:

The problem with this foolishness is assuming that the Big Time Throw to Turnover ratio should be 2:1 for balance.

 

It should be more like 5:1

Do you know what the ratio should be or is 5:1 wishful thinking? Not being snarky at all, just asking if you know.

 

You would think when talking about big time throws, that the likelihood that it’d be completed, that percentage would naturally be lower.

 

Thanks, Simon. Go Bills!

[CSBill]

13 hours ago, Calidiehard said:

Mahomes only played in 1 game in that season before Allen was drafted, so it's the same amount of time. Allen runs the ball more than Mahomes as well. When was the last designed run for Pat?

 

YEAH ???

[TNBills]

4 hours ago, CSBill said:

 

YEAH ???

You made a point of saying 1 more season which is technically true but skewed in that he only played in 1 game to have a chance at fumbling. Also comparing quarterbacks who are asked to do 2 different things skews the stats as well. If Mahomes is only running to avoid pressure Josh is asked to be the running game as well, his chances of fumbling go up significantly and the proof is that it happens more. In your comparisons Jackson is the most comparable to Allen in the fumble department.

[CincyBillsFan]

8 minutes ago, Calidiehard said:

You made a point of saying 1 more season which is technically true but skewed in that he only played in 1 game to have a chance at fumbling. Also comparing quarterbacks who are asked to do 2 different things skews the stats as well. If Mahomes is only running to avoid pressure Josh is asked to be the running game as well, his chances of fumbling go up significantly and the proof is that it happens more. In your comparisons Jackson is the most comparable to Allen in the fumble department.

Another thing about the "Mahomes & Allen" played the same number of games argument is the FACT that the Chiefs were a high level playoff team with or without Mahomes.  The 2018 Bills team that a rookie Allen played 11 games for was a team that had dissolved its offense as part of a rebuild.  Part of Allen's career statistical TO woes date from that season when he was playing with arguably the worst talent on offense in the NFL that year. In that year Allen had 18 TD's and 17 TO's.

 

And let's not forget that Allen, who hardly took 1st team reps in preseason & training camp that year was thrown to the wolves in game 2. Mahomes had the huge advantage of spending almost his entire rookie season learning the game from Andy Reid and Alex Smith.

 

 

 

 

[CSBill]

20 minutes ago, Calidiehard said:

You made a point of saying 1 more season which is technically true but skewed in that he only played in 1 game to have a chance at fumbling. Also comparing quarterbacks who are asked to do 2 different things skews the stats as well. If Mahomes is only running to avoid pressure Josh is asked to be the running game as well, his chances of fumbling go up significantly and the proof is that it happens more. In your comparisons Jackson is the most comparable to Allen in the fumble department.

 

That's why the number of games is what the stats are based on, not seasons. Mahones has played 81 regular season games, and Josh has played 78 games—almost the same.

 

And as I said, there are a lot of variables and ways you can read and interpret stats (see Mark Twain, "There are lies, damn lies, and statistics"). I do agree, style-wise, that Lamar is a better comparison. The point here is he fumbles too much, no matter what type of plays are being called.

[Dopey]

Big-time throw percentage!?!?! WTH!?!?