Jordan Palmer on Allen - It’s more about the loss Brian Daboll, who Bellicheck says is elite

[Matt_In_NH]

I really think this is about impulse vs being calculated in your decisions.  Josh has had many instances of not making good down and distance decisions in his career.   They frequency comes and goes and when he is humming along, he can eliminate the bad decisions.  The 2021 playoffs (patriots/chiefs  13 seconds) are a good example of that, when Josh is at his ceiling, there is almost no limit.  My beef with Josh is that he talks about making the right decisions, he understands it but when it is time to execute he just goes on impulse too often for a 6th year guy.   Teams use preparation, film study and even psychologists to manage this type of thing.  I have no idea what Josh is taking advantage of or not but he should have all the resources one could need.  But some of his comments on podcasts make me raise my eyebrows a little....."I don't study film endlessly".   "I don't manage my diet all the time, I can just fast" and other things.  Taken individually thee could mean nothing but in the ultra competitive nature of the NFL, everything/every detail matters.  I wish that was his mentality.   Sometimes you have to be boring, take the short passes, throw a ball away, just fall on the ball after a fumble, every play cannot be superman Josh.   Ultimately I think Josh probably needs some reminders in the Helmut about key down and distance info.   Each play he should have a plan A, plan B and maybe a plan C and those can change a lot depending on situational football.

 

Dabol vs Dorsey:  People have re-written history with Dabol because of how it ended but the 2021 season was a big challenge, similar to this year, week 1 was a disaster and in week 2 they won 35-0 and if you look back at the aftermath people were saying "it didn't look right".   It took most of the season to get the offense humming.    Something similar could happen this year, we would all rather these guys peak in the playoffs than week 1.  People routinely were calling for Dabol's head previous to the 2021 playoffs....I am sure we can find if if you use the search function.

 

Thanks, had to get that off my chest.

[Big Blitz]

On 9/13/2023 at 11:50 PM, Beck Water said:

 

This.  Any field - if you're lucky enough to have a top mentor, you need to take all you can get from them, and take it to heart, and meld it into your heart and mind as much as you can.  Because things change.  Mentors retire, get promoted, leave to take different positions elsewhere - all kinds of things change.

 

You're absolutely right.  If a team is successful, the coordinators will get offers. 

 

If a QB can't adjust to different coordinators in today's NFL, he's got a problem.

 

But they do.  They absolutely do struggle going thru OC after OC.  

 

The elite ones have offensive guys as HC.  Correlation?  

 

Herbert right now is being completely wasted.  

 

Maybe Pickett is?  Maybe Zach Wilson needed that instead of Saleh.       
 

 

Tua has been saved by McDaniel. 
 

Kevin O’Connell is getting the most out of Cousins - and a rookie WR.  

 

Shanny.  McVay.  Sirianni.  Reid.  Taylor.  Pederson.     
 

The new coaches in Indy and Carolina knowing they were getting rookie QBs - offensive guys.  
 

McCarthy in GB with Rodgers - maybe now in Dallas we’ll see.  

Edited September 15, 2023 by Big Blitz

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

But they do.  They absolutely do struggle going thru OC after OC.  

 

The elite ones have offensive guys as HC.  Correlation?  

 

 

 

Do they? Brady didn't. Manning didn't. Ben didn't. 

[Saxum]

2 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

I do think that a big thing that isn't really being talked about is the fact that Dorsey calls it from the box unlike Daboll who was on the field for a large portion of his time here (I feel like there was a time he called from the box as well? Can't remember). Josh needs someone to reel him in when he starts getting wild. Daboll was not afraid to do that. I remember multiple times seeing Josh getting his butt ripped by Daboll on the sideline. I don't recall ever seeing Brady do this, but I do think Dorsey would if he were on the field. I wonder if having that OC presence on the field would help reel Josh in a little more. On the flip side - how much does that impact Dorsey's ability to call a game though.

 

Daboll originally was calling from the sideline and was overheated and frequently criticizing / arguing with Josh. He almost did a Beli-CHEAT once he was so mad. After that he moved to the booth and communications were better with Josh for he would not do the same things from the box and he relied on QB coach and other QBs to help him to communicate with Josh.   When Josh and Daboll became good buddies it was not an issue whether he called from box or sideline.

[Big Blitz]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Do they? Brady didn't. Manning didn't. Ben didn't. 

 

Ben did, at many times.  

The other 2 are arguably the 2 best QBs ever.  
 

Who both had defensive HCs for most of their careers - it’s worth noting that maybe - maybe - Manning wins more SBs with an offensive OC or had more playoff success earlier in his career.  He did lose a SB to Sean Payton.   
 

And Brady had the same one most of his career.  

 

 

[Beck Water]

16 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

But they do.  They absolutely do struggle going thru OC after OC.  

 

The elite ones have offensive guys as HC.  Correlation?  

 

Herbert right now is being completely wasted.  

 

Maybe Pickett is?  Maybe Zach Wilson needed that instead of Saleh.       
 

 

Tua has been saved by McDaniel. 
 

Kevin O’Connell is getting the most out of Cousins - and a rookie WR.  

 

Shanny.  McVay.  Sirianni.  Reid.  Taylor.  Pederson.     
 

The new coaches in Indy and Carolina knowing they were getting rookie QBs - offensive guys.  
 

McCarthy in GB with Rodgers - maybe now in Dallas we’ll see.  

 

I'm a little confused here.

 

Are you saying elite QB struggle with OC changes?

I think we can find examples of a number of elite QB who had different OCs (and quite different offenses, even if under the same HC) and remained elite.

 

I'm a little puzzled by the rest of your argument.  I think it's perfectly correct that sometimes rookies and young QB struggle because they're matched with an OC that doesn't maximize their talents, or because they cycle through OCs like revolving doors.

 

But how does that argue that elite QB who have been coached and successful with one OC, can't handle a change to a different OC, especially within the same system?

[Beck Water]

7 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

And Brady had the same one most of his career. 

 

Not quite

Charlie Weis (5 years)

- (1 year - probably de facto Josh McDaniel, who was QB coach)

Josh McDaniel (3 years)

- (2 year - probably de facto Bill O'Brien, who was QB coach)

Bill OBrien (1 year)

then we do go back to Josh McDaniel for 7 years

 

But in the first 12 years of Brady's career, he had 3 different OCs for 5, 4*, and 3* years

And yes Bill Belicheck was the HC for all of those years, but the offense definitely looked different under Weis vs McDaniel vs O'Brien

 

 

[Mango]

21 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

Agree...

 

Wrong thread (kind of) but since I have your attention and I do (most of us do) trust your insight...

 

And comments or thoughts on this? I literally just had this pop up on Twitter. I want to go back and watch the entire thing...

This feels like a nothing burger “our QB has a tendency to be reckless with the ball and his body. We limited plays that exacerbate this problem.”

 

Josh has a very real fumbling problem and has a propensity to risk his body in moments that don’t need it. I don’t think limiting that but using it situationally is controversial. 
 

Also, if teams like the Jets can befuddle Allen by only rushing 4 the QB power seems like it would be less effective since there’s enough players committed to cover that off. 

[Mango]

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It's a fair point - that the last 19 games (i.e. the Dorsey era) is an arbitrary mark. But even if we count Jacksonville as the starting point, he had 4 multiple INT games in his last 12 under Daboll's coaching and since then it is 7 in 19. That is an uptick. It might feel like it is a relatively small change ratio wise but given the small numbers here that matters. But as you are aware, I am not particularly arguing that it is Dorsey's fault. And even if the pattern starts with Jax 2021 I would say the pattern escalates (not the right word but you take my point) with Green Bay last year. It is 6 multiple INT games in 13 since that day. That is where it basically goes from 1 in 3 or close thereto (5 in 18 post between Jax 2021 and GB 2022) to 1 in 2. 

 

I think they have to look at everything and Dorsey and his game planning is part of it, but I have to say I think it is mostly (not exclusively) Josh. I don't think he is the same guy. I didn't think he was down the stretch last year, but because the game after Green Bay was the Jets and the elbow injury I just put it down to that. I am worried now. Genuinely worried. Because I think there is something else going on. Nothing would give me greater pleasure than seeing an elite Josh Allen performance on Sunday. Then we can take a breath and say okay it's still there let's build his confidence back up and make sure he has the right support. My concern is we will see another scratchy day where things just don't look right with our Quarterback and the people saying the fix is to give him more easy throws.... well you are right to say they were all there for him on MNF. Dorsey didn't call a perfect game, but there were plenty of chain movers there for Allen on every drive. He just was either not seeing them or deciding not to take them as he bailed clean pockets and forced balls into double / triple coverage. 

 

I think some of the emotional reaction from the fan base isn't hate, or even frustration, it is fear. I think there is a fear that maybe Josh Allen's hot streak was the anomaly, and this very erratic and turnover prone guy is the baseline.

 

Allen has always been a turn over machine. He has more than anybody since coming into the league, which is why there is such a nuanced discussion around these small shifts in ratio. And we want it to be Dorsey, or the lack of runs, or some change in offensive philosophy.

 

I think there is a bit of a come to jesus moment for a lot of people who have to accept that their 1a/1b QB is maybe 2, 3, or even 5th on the list at the moment. This team burned so so hot for a minute there, it is a little bit of a scary pill to swallow. 

 

I think we are at a point where this is an issue Josh needs to fix on his own. His decision has been consistently inconsistent for 6 years.

 

My honest scale for Josh Allen's career  right now is that if he can get his game right his ceiling can be Favre-esque. But his career progression is pretty (very?) far behind right now. His floor is Matt Stafford with the Lions. Somewhere in between is Eli Manning, which is starting to feel like a decent career trajectory. Some very hot moments, some very cold moments, a rollercoaster for the fan base, and if we are lucky a couple random SB wins (hopefully). 

[Mr. WEO]

[Big Blitz]

47 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I'm a little confused here.

 

Are you saying elite QB struggle with OC changes?

I think we can find examples of a number of elite QB who had different OCs (and quite different offenses, even if under the same HC) and remained elite.

 

I'm a little puzzled by the rest of your argument.  I think it's perfectly correct that sometimes rookies and young QB struggle because they're matched with an OC that doesn't maximize their talents, or because they cycle through OCs like revolving doors.

 

But how does that argue that elite QB who have been coached and successful with one OC, can't handle a change to a different OC, especially within the same system?

 

I still see him going into last year as a young QB - year 5 - not a well seasoned vet.  Especially a guy who was always going to take 1-2 years to get going a “project” if you will.   
 

And he did under Dabol for 3 full seasons.  
 

The last 16 games are either - he was hurt or it’s a decline.  
 

If you think it’s a decline it is on the coaches to figure it the ***k out.  

[GunnerBill]

59 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

Ben did, at many times.  

The other 2 are arguably the 2 best QBs ever.  
 

Who both had defensive HCs for most of their careers - it’s worth noting that maybe - maybe - Manning wins more SBs with an offensive OC or had more playoff success earlier in his career.  He did lose a SB to Sean Payton.   
 

And Brady had the same one most of his career.  

 

 

 

I mean sure, if you allow yourself to create your own exclusions, then you can come to any conclusions you like.

[Mango]

2 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

I still see him going into last year as a young QB - year 5 - not a well seasoned vet.  Especially a guy who was always going to take 1-2 years to get going a “project” if you will.   
 

And he did under Dabol for 3 full seasons.  
 

The last 16 games are either - he was hurt or it’s a decline.  
 

If you think it’s a decline it is on the coaches to figure it the ***k out.  

 

I think this is far too over simplified. Andy Reid is suddenly considered maybe the greatest coach ever. He has always been excellent, but never won anything with a very talented McNabb. Carson Wentz flashed, and nobody got him back on track. Nick Foles lit the league on fire, won SB MVP, and did nothing again. 

 

There are a lot more variable in the formula than you think. 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

Josh has a very real fumbling problem and has a propensity to risk his body in moments that don’t need it. I don’t think limiting that but using it situationally is controversial. 
 

Also, if teams like the Jets can befuddle Allen by only rushing 4 the QB power seems like it would be less effective since there’s enough players committed to cover that off. 

 

Agree on the "risk his body in moments that don't need it", and that trying to limit that is wise.

 

On the fumbling problem - I did a detailed breakdown of this a couple times (in 2019 and in 2022 I think). The conclusion was that Josh's fumbles have changed since 2019.  His first 2 years in the league, he tended to fumble most often on runs, and it was bad. 

 

For the most part, he cleaned the fumbles while running up.  Since early 2019, his most common fumbles are not running - they're strip sacks, often strip sacks after Josh has been flushed out of the pocket and is trying to extend the play. I believe that has held true more recently as well.  I have data on FF and FL per game, same as I did the INT and total TO, but of course that doesn't provide info on "what was he doing when he fumbled?"  Some source probably has this compiled, but I'd have to go through the game logs and I'm not energized for that.

 

I expect it wouldn't be a shock to you to learn that forced fumbles (overall) have flared up on about the same timeline as his interceptions: ~ the Jets game on last season? IMO they stem from the same root cause, not seeing and/or not being willing to take the safe throw, trying to buy time to hit the big play.  Just as that can result into heaving the ball into coverage with a DB who is ready to jump the play, that can result in holding the ball until a pursuing DL or LB catches up to his right arm.  I don't *think* Josh is fumbling more when he runs these days.

 

Edited September 15, 2023 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

 

I think some of the emotional reaction from the fan base isn't hate, or even frustration, it is fear. I think there is a fear that maybe Josh Allen's hot streak was the anomaly, and this very erratic and turnover prone guy is the baseline.

 

Allen has always been a turn over machine. He has more than anybody since coming into the league, which is why there is such a nuanced discussion around these small shifts in ratio. And we want it to be Dorsey, or the lack of runs, or some change in offensive philosophy.

 

I think there is a bit of a come to jesus moment for a lot of people who have to accept that their 1a/1b QB is maybe 2, 3, or even 5th on the list at the moment. This team burned so so hot for a minute there, it is a little bit of a scary pill to swallow. 

 

I think we are at a point where this is an issue Josh needs to fix on his own. His decision has been consistently inconsistent for 6 years.

 

My honest scale for Josh Allen's career  right now is that if he can get his game right his ceiling can be Favre-esque. But his career progression is pretty (very?) far behind right now. His floor is Matt Stafford with the Lions. Somewhere in between is Eli Manning, which is starting to feel like a decent career trajectory. Some very hot moments, some very cold moments, a rollercoaster for the fan base, and if we are lucky a couple random SB wins (hopefully). 

 

I think the "always been a turnover machine" trope is overdone, and the "more than anybody" is overinterpreted.  One thing to consider is that Allen has been effectively the Bills best RB AND their QB most of his time here.  So he has the turnovers of an RB, AND the turnovers of a QB.  Add in that he's apparently currently the league leader for continuous game starts (avert any jinx here), and well, Yeah.

 

The thing about Josh Allen's hot streak is that by my reckoning, the bulk of it was 39 games, with a couple stretches after that.  He's played 87 games.  When you have two numbers that are almost equal, it's very fair to ask which is the baseline and which the anomoly.

 

Ultimately, it's 'up to' Josh Allen to answer that.

 

Edit to add: I think you've nailed the emotional reaction from us fans very accurately.  We are fearful that the "avoid idiocy!" Josh of part of 2019/2020/part of 2021 is indeed, the anomoly.

Edited September 15, 2023 by Beck Water

[Wayne Arnold]

Palmer is laying it on thick for some reason. Daboll's a solid coach but he's no magician.

[Beck Water]

16 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

Palmer is laying it on thick for some reason. Daboll's a solid coach but he's no magician.

 

yeah, the whole thing was just weird IMHO.

 

I truly think it may be time and past time for Josh to switch off-season QB coaches.

[Wayne Arnold]

50 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

yeah, the whole thing was just weird IMHO.

 

I truly think it may be time and past time for Josh to switch off-season QB coaches.

 

Josh still works with him?

[Scott7975]

9 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I really think this is about impulse vs being calculated in your decisions.  Josh has had many instances of not making good down and distance decisions in his career.   They frequency comes and goes and when he is humming along, he can eliminate the bad decisions.  The 2021 playoffs (patriots/chiefs  13 seconds) are a good example of that, when Josh is at his ceiling, there is almost no limit.  My beef with Josh is that he talks about making the right decisions, he understands it but when it is time to execute he just goes on impulse too often for a 6th year guy.   Teams use preparation, film study and even psychologists to manage this type of thing.  I have no idea what Josh is taking advantage of or not but he should have all the resources one could need.  But some of his comments on podcasts make me raise my eyebrows a little....."I don't study film endlessly".   "I don't manage my diet all the time, I can just fast" and other things.  Taken individually thee could mean nothing but in the ultra competitive nature of the NFL, everything/every detail matters.  I wish that was his mentality.   Sometimes you have to be boring, take the short passes, throw a ball away, just fall on the ball after a fumble, every play cannot be superman Josh.   Ultimately I think Josh probably needs some reminders in the Helmut about key down and distance info.   Each play he should have a plan A, plan B and maybe a plan C and those can change a lot depending on situational football.

 

Dabol vs Dorsey:  People have re-written history with Dabol because of how it ended but the 2021 season was a big challenge, similar to this year, week 1 was a disaster and in week 2 they won 35-0 and if you look back at the aftermath people were saying "it didn't look right".   It took most of the season to get the offense humming.    Something similar could happen this year, we would all rather these guys peak in the playoffs than week 1.  People routinely were calling for Dabol's head previous to the 2021 playoffs....I am sure we can find if if you use the search function.

 

Thanks, had to get that off my chest.

 

I was not a big fan of Dabol as an OC. I thought he had some really great games but I also thought he had some really lowsey calls even in some of those great games as well as many others.  I do think he is a good coach though.  In any case, I feel like Daboll had a way of reeling Josh back in.  Maybe not in the same game but through the season. I think it's too early to tell if Dorsey can do the same or not.  I will say that I don't think Josh has been the same since Daboll left. That could be many more factors than just Daboll leaving though.

[k2mountain]

Daboll.. he's above average, not uber special.

 

I'm not a Dorsey fan by any measure. But I gotta say: it wasn't Dorsey who forced that ball into triple coverage, or who fumbled.