Can we talk about Gabe Davis's performance?

[HappyDays]

Most of the focus this week has been on Josh Allen's struggles. Rightfully so. He almost singlehandedly lost us the game. But evaluating other players on offense shouldn't be ignored.

 

The biggest question on offense coming into the season was how Davis would step up in his second season as the presumed #2 WR. Against the Jets he finished with 2 catches on 4 targets (50% catch percentage) and 32 receiving yards.

 

Despite playing on 94.2% of snaps, he finished with equal or less catches than:

 

Damien Harris (13% of snaps)

Deonte Harty (21.7% of snaps)

James Cook (59.4% of snaps)

Dalton Kincaid (80% of snaps)

Dawson Knox (84% of snaps)

 

The obvious caveat is that is based on exactly one game. But the presumed #2 WR who was on the field for all but 4 snaps is catching the ball less than guys that are supposed to be role players. And it continues a worrying trend of Davis only catching 50% of the targets that come his way which is bottom of the barrel efficiency. He was also at least partially to blame for Allen's 3rd interception because of a lazy route that gave Jordan Whitehead easy leverage.

 

Davis had the longest catch of the night at 26 yards and it was a big one. But right now the common complaint is that our passing offense was way too inefficient against the Jets and that Allen needs to get the ball out faster. We have a 50% catch WR where every meaningful target is 3+ seconds after the snap, playing almost every down on offense and operating as our presumed #2 receiving target. He can't separate quickly and he's almost useless as a pass catcher within 10 yards of the LOS. Isn't it possible that such a glaring problem is contributing to a good chunk of that inefficiency?

[julian]

I’m ready to make this a Diggs Kincaid offense as far as amount of targets. I’m not paying Davis.

[MasterStrategist]

Not ready to put anything on any WR, until we see Josh improve his decision making & play other defenses.

 

Jets were practically giving 5 yard passes all game, Josh started to go away from taking those.

 

Not taking any honus off Gabe or others, just not the right time.

 

It's basically the same as trying to put too much praise on the secondary, yet.  Very hopeful, but we need to see a quality passing attack.

[Scott7975]

Tough to say.  I don't have game film and it could be Josh not going his way or Davis not being open. Even if it's Davis not being open is it his fault?  I know that Int, like you said was part on him. Crap route.  Also on his big catch, who was in the wrong place?  I doubt the offense schemed two receivers that close together. I seen that a lot since last year too.

[Jerry Jabber]

14 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Most of the focus this week has been on Josh Allen's struggles. Rightfully so. He almost singlehandedly lost us the game. But evaluating other players on offense shouldn't be ignored.

 

The biggest question on offense coming into the season was how Davis would step up in his second season as the presumed #2 WR. Against the Jets he finished with 2 catches on 4 targets (50% catch percentage) and 32 receiving yards.

 

Despite playing on 94.2% of snaps, he finished with equal or less catches than:

 

Damien Harris (13% of snaps)

Deonte Harty (21.7% of snaps)

James Cook (59.4% of snaps)

Dalton Kincaid (80% of snaps)

Dawson Knox (84% of snaps)

 

The obvious caveat is that is based on exactly one game. But the presumed #2 WR who was on the field for all but 4 snaps is catching the ball less than guys that are supposed to be role players. And it continues a worrying trend of Davis only catching 50% of the targets that come his way which is bottom of the barrel efficiency. He was also at least partially to blame for Allen's 3rd interception because of a lazy route that gave Jordan Whitehead easy leverage.

 

Davis had the longest catch of the night at 26 yards and it was a big one. But right now the common complaint is that our passing offense was way too inefficient against the Jets and that Allen needs to get the ball out faster. We have a 50% catch WR where every meaningful target is 3+ seconds after the snap, playing almost every down on offense and operating as our presumed #2 receiving target. He can't separate quickly and he's almost useless as a pass catcher within 10 yards of the LOS. Isn't it possible that such a glaring problem is contributing to a good chunk of that inefficiency?

In the offseason, I posted concerns about the receivers on offense outside of Diggs. Most importantly, Davis. I felt Davis is a good #3 WR, but a below average #2. Had a bunch of people disagree with me, and had some rave about “Playoff Gabe,” make excuses about his ankle, and that I didn’t know what I was talking about. Well, it’s another year, had another game against a division opponent and had another below average game.

 

You are 100% correct in your assessment about Davis. A #2 WR should be getting about 6-8 receptions a game and be able to take the pressure off the #1 WR, but Davis hasn’t been able to do that. 
 

I was really hoping for a legit #2 WR like Hopkins or someone else. IMO, Diggs’ best years are being wasted. If Diggs goes down with an injury, the Bills offense is toast. 

[HappyDays]

19 minutes ago, julian said:

I’m ready to make this a Diggs Kincaid offense as far as amount of targets.

 

I am right there with you. I believe Kincaid is ready for that kind of role right now. He had a 100% catch percentage on Monday night and he plays in the area of the field that everyone agrees Josh should pay more attention to. I think just by giving him the featured #2 job, that alone would solve a lot of our inefficiency problems. That being said he's a rookie so it remains to be seen if he's actually ready to take on that kind of responsibility but it's worth a shot.

[Royale with Cheese]

Gabe Davis is the kid when you played backyard football where you forget to draw a play up for, he asks what he should run and you say “just go long.”

 

Then when everyone else is covered, you just throw it downfield to him and he will catch it 50% of the time.  
 

Those kids did have value and that’s Gabe’s value.  Just a few big chunk plays a game, not targeted very often.

Edited September 14, 2023 by Royale with Cheese

[ngbills]

This was Davis stat line in the majority of games he has played. Fur some reason people think it will all the sudden change. He should be a 3 that once every few months goes off when the things go right for him. Kincaid and a WR not on this roster should be the secondary targets. 

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I am right there with you. I believe Kincaid is ready for that kind of role right now. He had a 100% catch percentage on Monday night and he plays in the area of the field that everyone agrees Josh should pay more attention to. I think just by giving him the featured #2 job, that alone would solve a lot of our inefficiency problems. That being said he's a rookie so it remains to be seen if he's actually ready to take on that kind of responsibility but it's worth a shot.

I think so too. But the 100 catch rate were literally like handoffs so a meaningless stat. 

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I am right there with you. I believe Kincaid is ready for that kind of role right now. He had a 100% catch percentage on Monday night and he plays in the area of the field that everyone agrees Josh should pay more attention to. I think just by giving him the featured #2 job, that alone would solve a lot of our inefficiency problems. That being said he's a rookie so it remains to be seen if he's actually ready to take on that kind of responsibility but it's worth a shot.

 

I'm not saying Kincaid doesn't have this kind of talent.  I'm not even really saying that I think you'll be proven wrong or anything.  But don't you think that taking one game where a rookie caught 4/4 targets with minuscule depths of target and suggesting he should now be game planned around as the second best option is premature?  Do you want a 13-3 team from the previous year making snap personnel decisions based on Monday when there are 4 months to go?

It just feels like everyone is reaching for a different panic button after Week 1 when we're already seeing evidence that Week 1's are just going to be weird in this age where starters barely take preseason snaps.  

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

27 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Most of the focus this week has been on Josh Allen's struggles. Rightfully so. He almost singlehandedly lost us the game. But evaluating other players on offense shouldn't be ignored.

 

The biggest question on offense coming into the season was how Davis would step up in his second season as the presumed #2 WR. Against the Jets he finished with 2 catches on 4 targets (50% catch percentage) and 32 receiving yards.

 

Despite playing on 94.2% of snaps, he finished with equal or less catches than:

 

Damien Harris (13% of snaps)

Deonte Harty (21.7% of snaps)

James Cook (59.4% of snaps)

Dalton Kincaid (80% of snaps)

Dawson Knox (84% of snaps)

 

The obvious caveat is that is based on exactly one game. But the presumed #2 WR who was on the field for all but 4 snaps is catching the ball less than guys that are supposed to be role players. And it continues a worrying trend of Davis only catching 50% of the targets that come his way which is bottom of the barrel efficiency. He was also at least partially to blame for Allen's 3rd interception because of a lazy route that gave Jordan Whitehead easy leverage.

 

Davis had the longest catch of the night at 26 yards and it was a big one. But right now the common complaint is that our passing offense was way too inefficient against the Jets and that Allen needs to get the ball out faster. We have a 50% catch WR where every meaningful target is 3+ seconds after the snap, playing almost every down on offense and operating as our presumed #2 receiving target. He can't separate quickly and he's almost useless as a pass catcher within 10 yards of the LOS. Isn't it possible that such a glaring problem is contributing to a good chunk of that inefficiency?

 

I'm not really sure where your going with this, there are so many options on this team.....Harty, Knox, Harris, Cook, Diggs, Kincaid and Davis. Can you imagine the quick passes Brady and McDaniels in NE would have done with those weapons? Can you imagine what Mahomes/Reid would do with all of them at his disposal. I still have no clue why we have to get 25 yards a pop, dink and doink down the field, wear defenses out, utilize every weapon at your disposal, Dorsey is clueless and i guarantee if it's long ball again all season long it's game over, teams now realize we are force feeding Diggs, it's time for 6 yard passes to Harty and make him earn his paycheck, same with Knox, Kincaid and the rest. I was so dissapointed when we completely stopped throwing to Harty, isn't he supposed to be able to take passes to the house from anywhere on the field with his electrifying speed?

[HappyDays]

7 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

But don't you think that taking one game where a rookie caught 4/4 targets with minuscule depths of target and suggesting he should now be game planned around as the second best option is premature? 

 

I'm not just basing it on this one game. I have felt this way about him since before the Bills drafted him, and my confidence has only grown from there through all the glowing reports from training camp, his performance in preseason, and now his first real NFL action against a nasty defense. I am a little more reserved about the idea than my post may have seemed, and I recognize it may fail, but I think it's worth a shot.

 

I hate the idea of having 3-4 different players all acting as the co-#2 pass catchers. Every Super Bowl participant from the past 6 years or so had a legit #2 pass catcher where everyone knew that was his role. You can look if you don't believe me. So eventually we need someone to take up that mantle. I have totally lost faith in Davis to perform that role at a championship level. Kincaid is the only other player on the roster that I believe to be capable of possibly being that guy. So I'd rather find out ASAP. If he doesn't pass the test I'd be looking at trade options.

[HappyDays]

15 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

minuscule depths of target

 

One other thing I forgot to mention - in 2020 our #2 pass catcher was Cole Beasley. That year I think we did have a championship caliber WR corps, and no coincidence that playoff run was the furthest we've made it in the Josh Allen era. So I'm not asking for Kincaid to be Devonta Smith or Tee Higgins. 2020 Cole Beasley is all I really need for him to be. Just be a chain mover with a high catch percentage. Beasley had a 76.6% catch percentage that year. That's how you keep an offense moving.

 

I would still like to see how Kincaid fares on seam routes and other intermediate/deep throws when facing physical coverage. It is a legitimate question about his game which will determine his ceiling as a #2 target this year. But IMO the floor is quite high.

[Pirate Angel]

26 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

 

I'm not really sure where your going with this, there are so many options on this team.....Harty, Knox, Harris, Cook, Diggs, Kincaid and Davis. Can you imagine the quick passes Brady and McDaniels in NE would have done with those weapons? Can you imagine what Mahomes/Reid would do with all of them at his disposal. I still have no clue why we have to get 25 yards a pop, dink and doink down the field, wear defenses out, utilize every weapon at your disposal, Dorsey is clueless and i guarantee if it's long ball again all season long it's game over, teams now realize we are force feeding Diggs, it's time for 6 yard passes to Harty and make him earn his paycheck, same with Knox, Kincaid and the rest. I was so dissapointed when we completely stopped throwing to Harty, isn't he supposed to be able to take passes to the house from anywhere on the field with his electrifying speed?

Thats exactly what was being called mixed in with some runs, was working great until Josh decided to heave it down field into coverage, Josh refuses to play smart football.

[Mikie2times]

Davis just can't run the full route tree. That has always been more of a problem than his hands. How nice would it be if we had a guy that could body up on a hitch with a little separation. Davis just can't fool anybody that he is running a route inside of 10 yards. The league didn't know this about him his rookie year, but the book is out. I love what I saw from Kincaid. Silky smooth, instincts. He seems pretty destined to take on the #2 role here. In such, I wouldn't mind Knox being #3. WR is not catching any breaks we hoped we might get.   

[uticaclub]

Yeah, he’s not good consistently. Real boom or bust type of player. It’s been discussed extensively since 13 seconds.

Edited September 14, 2023 by uticaclub

[AuntieEm]

51 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm not just basing it on this one game. I have felt this way about him since before the Bills drafted him, and my confidence has only grown from there through all the glowing reports from training camp, his performance in preseason, and now his first real NFL action against a nasty defense. I am a little more reserved about the idea than my post may have seemed, and I recognize it may fail, but I think it's worth a shot.

 

I hate the idea of having 3-4 different players all acting as the co-#2 pass catchers. Every Super Bowl participant from the past 6 years or so had a legit #2 pass catcher where everyone knew that was his role. You can look if you don't believe me. So eventually we need someone to take up that mantle. I have totally lost faith in Davis to perform that role at a championship level. Kincaid is the only other player on the roster that I believe to be capable of possibly being that guy. So I'd rather find out ASAP. If he doesn't pass the test I'd be looking at trade options.

You followed Gabe Davis"  catch abilities before we drafted him?  So u follow his college team closely?

[Dr.Sack]

Allen has a rocket arm, with a 1995 Intel processing chip. He needs a RAM & Processor upgrade. 

[billsfan_34]

1 hour ago, MasterStrategist said:

Not ready to put anything on any WR, until we see Josh improve his decision making & play other defenses.

 

Jets were practically giving 5 yard passes all game, Josh started to go away from taking those.

 

Not taking any honus off Gabe or others, just not the right time.

 

It's basically the same as trying to put too much praise on the secondary, yet.  Very hopeful, but we need to see a quality passing attack.

When your D is playing good, and your up against possibly the best D in the league, it is ok to nickel and dime your way down the field. Josh didn’t get the memo…

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

1 hour ago, Pirate Angel said:

Thats exactly what was being called mixed in with some runs, was working great until Josh decided to heave it down field into coverage, Josh refuses to play smart football.

 

Then design a playbook or series of short plays specifically for this where everyone who's in the play goes no more than 15 yards, it's really that simple. I'm also not saying take the long plays completely out but this trying to air it out 15 times a game just isn't working any longer.

[John from Riverside]

So you wouldn’t pay Davis based on what he did on Monday night but it is only game one
 

You half to judge Gabe Davis on how well other number twos are doing on other teams and how much they’re being paid number twos on other teams also have games where they don’t produce can’t overlook that

 

As of right this moment, I’m not paying Gabe Davis. I would rather draft the first round receiver in the next year and next year’s draft and get them on a cost control contract since we’re paying Stefon Diggs so much.