Bills are adjusting to a lot and are going to get better

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

With respect, this post really doesn't make a whole lot of sense. 

 

The offense and Allen were terrible. Yes, the Jets D had something to do with it. 

 

I fail to see how the Bills "new look offense" negatively effected the Bills O. Frankly, I didn't see a "new look offense." I saw a disjointed, frantic, out of rhythm, no synchrony, lack of run game, little motion, and a predictable offense.  I barely noticed 12 personnel and it had really no significant impact on the Jets defense.

 

Kincaid catches two balls and Bills fans are googly eyed over his performance. Really? Lots of Bills fans just see things through a weird lens. That performance was not anything to get excited about. Lions TE Sam Laporta on a real offense looked 5xs as good as Kincaid. Not because he's better but because the Lions offense with a mediocre  QB Goff and OC Johnson is better. That says a lot about the Bills and not in a good way. 

 

Allen sucked! It had nothing to do with a new offense. The crowd noise and 911 had nothing to do with it either. The crowd was stunned and in shock after the Rodgers injury. It sucked the life right out of the Jets. The Bills failed to pounce on the "mentally injured" Jets. 

 

Sure there were a few bright spots but overall this game was a collosal failure by the Bills. A failed opportunity to win. A game Allen gave away. An offense that looked anything but dynamic and innovative. It looked predictable, uncreative, and anything but explosive. The oline got pushed around pretty good. Dorsey did nothing to combat the Jets D. Little motion, little deception, didn't commit to the run game, etc...

 

This opening game was the opposite of encouraging. Hard to see how the most optimistic fans can see a lot good from this offense. Besides Diggs there wasn't much else to like. Cook looked OK but he's far from elite or a game changer, the WR core stinks, and Knox and Kincaid doesn't scare any defense. The oline is still subpar. The offense was painful to watch. 

 

It's one game and a lot has to change for the good. Sure it's possible and likely to happen. It's nothing but upwards because it can't get much worse. 

 

This team needs a new offensive philosophy and a new coaching regime from top to bottom. Monday night showed the flaws of the team, players, and coaching. 

 

It wasn't the loss it was the way they lost. It was the examination of a lack of player talent and a flawed roster. It was a lack of coaching adjustments . It was a lack of killer instinct and the sighting of a soft team. It was the epiphany of a coach McD team. 

 

While there are some fair points in here, its also a bit over the top and exaggerative.  Our WR group stinks why?  Because Allen made bad choices and didn't throw to a number of open targets on each the plays he threw an INT on?  What is your evidence the WR group stinks, because the film showed our guys getting open.  Kincaid and Knox don't scare defenses?  You know this how?  Because of one game?  You don't think teams are coming into Bills games seeing a good TE in Knox who has 15 TD's the last 2 years despite his low use rate and a first round rookie TE that has shined all preseason and camp that the Bills have been saying will be a big part of the offense?  I assure you, defenses are preparing to see looks of 12 personnel and Kincaid in the slot because it creates mismatches.

 

NOW...its up to the Bills and Allen to go out and use these weapons and formations, but to say that everyone stinks is just a ridiculously over the top statement that does not reflect the game at all.  

 

However, I will say the complaints you have about the system and the way the game was called are more warranted.  Dorsey's offense did not look to me to be much different from the last years offense that made everything harder.  Even though guys were getting open short and underneath, on all these drop backs you can see right away they are late in the reads, not one of the early reads, making them harder for Josh to get to in his progressions.  All our drop backs are deep and you can see the focus is on giving the downfield stuff to develop rather than drop back and look for a quick strike ball.  To me, that is the BIGGEST issue with Dorsey and this offense.  

 

So people get frustrated when on the replay of an incomplete pass, turnover, or sack they see guys in the shorter zones running open and blame Allen.  But if we have 5 recieving targets, and his first 4 reads are all downfield, he won't always get to his 5th read before he fires a ball in tight coverage, gets pushed out of the pocket or tries to run.  

 

There needs to be a major shift in our passing attack philosophy because right now, the priority is too push push push downfield and all teams need to do is take that away because we don't have a great OL and the time it takes for those guys to get downfield, the DL can get through and disrupt the passing lanes and pocket.  We need to see a LOT more of what we saw on the first play of the game, quick drop slant to Diggs for an easy completion on Sauce to open the game.  

 

As much as I love seeing Allens cannon pick up chunk yards, we need to simplify the game more and give Allen easier and quicker targets.  There is a reason Mahomes is so efficient, something like 30% of his yards come from throws around or behind the LOS.  If we don't attack short, they will cheat deep and that always disrupts our offense.  Its bad enough we arent a big rushing team, but neither is KC, they extend the run game into the pass game with all these short area passes they get chunk yards on.  We need to incorporate a LOT more of that.

[newcam2012]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

While there are some fair points in here, its also a bit over the top and exaggerative.  Our WR group stinks why?  Because Allen made bad choices and didn't throw to a number of open targets on each the plays he threw an INT on?  What is your evidence the WR group stinks, because the film showed our guys getting open.  Kincaid and Knox don't scare defenses?  You know this how?  Because of one game?  You don't think teams are coming into Bills games seeing a good TE in Knox who has 15 TD's the last 2 years despite his low use rate and a first round rookie TE that has shined all preseason and camp that the Bills have been saying will be a big part of the offense?  I assure you, defenses are preparing to see looks of 12 personnel and Kincaid in the slot because it creates mismatches.

 

NOW...its up to the Bills and Allen to go out and use these weapons and formations, but to say that everyone stinks is just a ridiculously over the top statement that does not reflect the game at all.  

 

However, I will say the complaints you have about the system and the way the game was called are more warranted.  Dorsey's offense did not look to me to be much different from the last years offense that made everything harder.  Even though guys were getting open short and underneath, on all these drop backs you can see right away they are late in the reads, not one of the early reads, making them harder for Josh to get to in his progressions.  All our drop backs are deep and you can see the focus is on giving the downfield stuff to develop rather than drop back and look for a quick strike ball.  To me, that is the BIGGEST issue with Dorsey and this offense.  

 

So people get frustrated when on the replay of an incomplete pass, turnover, or sack they see guys in the shorter zones running open and blame Allen.  But if we have 5 recieving targets, and his first 4 reads are all downfield, he won't always get to his 5th read before he fires a ball in tight coverage, gets pushed out of the pocket or tries to run.  

 

There needs to be a major shift in our passing attack philosophy because right now, the priority is too push push push downfield and all teams need to do is take that away because we don't have a great OL and the time it takes for those guys to get downfield, the DL can get through and disrupt the passing lanes and pocket.  We need to see a LOT more of what we saw on the first play of the game, quick drop slant to Diggs for an easy completion on Sauce to open the game.  

 

As much as I love seeing Allens cannon pick up chunk yards, we need to simplify the game more and give Allen easier and quicker targets.  There is a reason Mahomes is so efficient, something like 30% of his yards come from throws around or behind the LOS.  If we don't attack short, they will cheat deep and that always disrupts our offense.  Its bad enough we arent a big rushing team, but neither is KC, they extend the run game into the pass game with all these short area passes they get chunk yards on.  We need to incorporate a LOT more of that.

Nice post Alpha. I don't disagree with much here. 

[mjt328]

Every team is adjusting to new things.  It's Week 1.  Not an excuse in the slightest.

The problem is that our star QB no longer seems to know what he's doing.

 

There was a noticeable drop in Josh Allen's play after the bye week last year (starting about halftime of the Green Bay game).  10 interceptions and 3 fumbles lost in the final 10 games of the season, along with several substandard performances.  He followed that up with 2 interceptions and 3 fumbles (1 lost) in the Wild Card Round, almost costing us a postseason game against Miami's third-string quarterback.  That of course was followed up an embarrassing team performance against the Cincinnati Bengals, including another clunker from Allen, that officially knocked us out of the playoffs.

 

We heard all the excuses in the offseason about Damar Hamlin, his UCL joint and the weather.  The team upgraded the interior O-Line and added new weapons.  And with an entire offseason to refocus and get his head right... we are treated to possibly the worst game of his career to kickoff the 2023 season.

 

Coming out of college, the big knock on Allen was his mechanics.  He had all the athletic talent in the world.  By fixing his throwing motion and improving his accuracy, Allen was able to develop into a Top 5 NFL quarterback.  But over the last year, we've seen him hit a mental plateau.  In Year 6, he still lacks patience and composure.  And until he breaks through that ceiling, the Bills will have no chance at winning a Super Bowl.

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

The atmosphere was DEAD after Rogers went down. That place was as silent as a morgue.  Oh and they were up 13-3 at half and no need for hero ball.

 

The truth is Allen just layer a big old fat egg on Monday night. IMO the Jets D either scares him or confuses the heck out of him. It also didn’t help him focusing on 1 receiver, hard see all the others when you just look at one.

 

All and all Allen will probably come out this week and throw for 400 yards and 4 TDS.. he just had a bad bad game all QBs have them.. 
 

 

 

 

This is what it looked like to me. Just a really bad game.

 

But I do think it's a legit concern that he doesn't lean into the work in the offseason these days the way he used to in his first few years. 

 

He's always going to be really good. But he still needs to make some changes. Folks assume it's impossible. It's not. But it's also not easy at all.

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

 

The talent level on the Bills is better than NE right on offense at least? (I don’t think anyone would disagree here on that fact)  Well I’d dare say Allen with the Pats this year with O’Brian as OC and BB would not only win the division they would go to the SB! Again only swapping Jones and Allen nothing else.  Why? Because BB and O’Brian would be on him every time he tried to do hero ball.. he probably been benched by BB after the 3rd pick so the fumble never happens. 

Absolutely agree here.

 

BB + OC OBrien + NE+ Allen = Lombardi Trophy.

 

McD + OC Dorsey+ Bflo + Allen = Early playoff exits. 6 equations to look at. 

 

Coaching matters people. 

[uninja]

Remember that season when the Chiefs started 3-4, Mahomes was throwing all sorts of picks all over the place and their offense was getting stymied by the 2 deep shell and their offense looked limp and lifeless?

 

Remember how they sorted that out? I remember.

 

I'm gonna chill and let the season develop, there's 16 more games and I've watched enough football that what September shows you is rarely the truth.

[newcam2012]

4 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

If that's how you want to think, go ahead.

It it logical or illogical thinking? 

[BillsUberAlles]

Until Allen gets it in his head that it's OK to win games 17-6 or 20-10 when the game situation dictates it, we are still going to have issues in these types of games because Allen is going to try and force a big play to turn the game into a blowout.

 

We would have easily won that game if he could have accepted it. He couldn't and so we lost.

[PBF81]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Have we all taken our deep breaths yet?

 

Let's be honest, the Bills have wildly shifted their offensive philosophy. I understand it didn't necessarily look like that in the game against the Jets, but the Bills went from being the team with the lowest percentage of 12 personnel in the NFL last season to being the highest in week 1.

 

That signals a massive offensive philosophy shift.

 

Given that the Jets with Wilson at QB will be among the least balanced offenses that we'll see all season, IMO the defense won't be nearly as good going forward.  

 

However, as you imply, the offense should be fine, particularly this week against last season's 26th ranked D and 29th ranked pass D that did little to improve.  ... and contrasted with last season's 4th/3rd ranked Ds in that way.  

 

It'll be a great re-group game.  We should win easily as long as Jacobs isn't allowed to post a huge game.  We'll see what McD has up his sleeve for that.  

 

 

[newcam2012]

4 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

You are being extremely dramatic.

 

Allen is going to watch the film and see the multiple missed opportunities and he's going to point the finger at the OC and his lack of weapons?

If they are open and Allen doesn't throw it to them, you're blaming the WR's?  He's lost trust in the offense when HE is the one not doing his part?

Allen hasn't been good in quite some time. Come game time I have to hope and pray we get the good to great version of Allen. That's not what you want in a franchise QB . You need and want consistency. That doesn't mean he's always going to be on and play great. That's not realistic. However, his bad is just unacceptable and inexcusable. You just can't give games away in the NFL. It usually comes back to haunt a team. 

17 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

Every team is adjusting to new things.  It's Week 1.  Not an excuse in the slightest.

The problem is that our star QB no longer seems to know what he's doing.

 

There was a noticeable drop in Josh Allen's play after the bye week last year (starting about halftime of the Green Bay game).  10 interceptions and 3 fumbles lost in the final 10 games of the season, along with several substandard performances.  He followed that up with 2 interceptions and 3 fumbles (1 lost) in the Wild Card Round, almost costing us a postseason game against Miami's third-string quarterback.  That of course was followed up an embarrassing team performance against the Cincinnati Bengals, including another clunker from Allen, that officially knocked us out of the playoffs.

 

We heard all the excuses in the offseason about Damar Hamlin, his UCL joint and the weather.  The team upgraded the interior O-Line and added new weapons.  And with an entire offseason to refocus and get his head right... we are treated to possibly the worst game of his career to kickoff the 2023 season.

 

Coming out of college, the big knock on Allen was his mechanics.  He had all the athletic talent in the world.  By fixing his throwing motion and improving his accuracy, Allen was able to develop into a Top 5 NFL quarterback.  But over the last year, we've seen him hit a mental plateau.  In Year 6, he still lacks patience and composure.  And until he breaks through that ceiling, the Bills will have no chance at winning a Super Bowl.

Fantastic post! You said it much more clearly and elegantly than myself. 

 

Home run post here! 

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

It it logical or illogical thinking? 

 

If it wasn't the very first game of the season, it would be logical.

 

I remember you saying the Bills offense was "exposed" after the Steelers opening day loss in 2021.  Was that logical thinking being that they finished 3rd in points at the end of the year?  

 

 

[Captain_Quint]

The only thing I care about at this point is improving as the season goes on, and we hit our stride at the middle/end of the year. 

 

The AFC will not have a bunch of 12 and 13 win teams this year. I foresee alot of 10-11 win teams fighting for a playoff spot in the last quarter of the season. 

[BullBuchanan]

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

No offense, but that would be a you problem if you haven't come to terms with it by now. 

 

How did Josh look last year against the same Jets defense? OP said this was probably Allen's worst NFL game in his six year career. That's probably true and the two games last year against the Jets are probably in the top 10 of worst games of Allen's career. 

 

Nothing we saw Monday night should have surprised anyone. 

 

We should all be surprised if Allen doesn't put up MVP Allen type games against the Raiders, Commander and Dolphins coming up. He should get back to that high level of play in at least two out of the three upcoming games. 

 

Hopefully people have come to terms with Allen's play against elite defenses is a huge problem and there is nothing we can do about it other than hope the turnovers can be manageable, like one or two instead of 4. But it is what it is at this point. 

 

If this is acceptable to you, than you must be content with the fact that Allen will likely never reach a Super Bowl (barring a miracle), let alone win one.

He doesn't struggle against just elite defenses, either. He struggles again anyone who understands that all yopu have to do is run disguised coverages that give allen reads that he has a 1:1 matchup with a WR running deep. You give him that and he'll take it every time - hence the hail mary throws into double coverage while he has wide open receivers underneath.

If he's as good as he's ever going to be, he's not good enough.  I don't think that's true, but if it is, you have to find a new solution.

Edited September 13, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[newcam2012]

13 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

This is what it looked like to me. Just a really bad game.

 

But I do think it's a legit concern that he doesn't lean into the work in the offseason these days the way he used to in his first few years. 

 

He's always going to be really good. But he still needs to make some changes. Folks assume it's impossible. It's not. But it's also not easy at all.

Maybe I'm wrong here. Perhaps Allen has gotten a bit complacent in the off season. He seems more consumed by outside activities, public appearances, girlfriends, commercials, and the limelight. 

 

This off season I didn't hear anything about him working with Palmer, training, or throwing the ball on his off time. 

 

To my naked eye, it almost seems like he's putting in less work. The results showed on Monday night for sure. 

 

If anyone has input here please do so. Like I said I could be totally off here. 

[CincyBillsFan]

5 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

 

Allen is feast or famine; mostly feast. There will be games he just gives away each year. Allen isn't going to change folks. 

Exactly so you embrace what Allen is:  a HOF level elite talent that plays the game like Favre.  You design your offense & offensive philosophy to best exploit Allen's style of play and you surround Allen with the kind of players that thrive in his Helter Skelter world.

 

Or you try to take the edge off Allen and get him to not throw those 50 yard bombs into double coverage or try to run over safeties and maybe if you're lucky he'll turn into a big Drew Breeze or a Kirk Cousins!  More likely though you'll ruin what Makes Allen great and we'll see more and more games like last night.

 

And if Allen's play is incompatible with how defensive minded GM's and head coaches like McD & Bean need in their franchise QB then we can trade Allen now and get multiple 1st, 2nd & 3rd round picks over multiple years from 15 - 20 NFL teams.  Imagine how many stud D linemen & corner backs we could accumulate.

 

And I'm not being facetious on trading Allen ( well maybe a little) but all I'm seeing are people slamming Allen for playing like he does.  Sure maybe lightening can strike and he can turn into Brady or Breeze.  I just think that is a long shot with the downside risk of ruining Allen.  So IMO you choose the 1st option and go all in on Allen being Allen.  I really believe there is at least one Super Bowl in our future if we do.  Like the one we should have gotten in 2021.

 

8 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Maybe I'm wrong here. Perhaps Allen has gotten a bit complacent in the off season. He seems more consumed by outside activities, public appearances, girlfriends, commercials, and the limelight. 

 

This off season I didn't hear anything about him working with Palmer, training, or throwing the ball on his off time. 

 

To my naked eye, it almost seems like he's putting in less work. The results showed on Monday night for sure. 

 

If anyone has input here please do so. Like I said I could be totally off here. 

Mahomes says hi.

 

Can we at least give the Jet's D some credit here.  They may have been boasting about being the 85 Bears but their defense is one of the best in the NFL.  They might have 2 of the top 5 corner backs in the league, superior safety's & LB's and a fierce defensive line.

 

 

 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Have we all taken our deep breaths yet?

 

Let's be honest, the Bills have wildly shifted their offensive philosophy. I understand it didn't necessarily look like that in the game against the Jets, but the Bills went from being the team with the lowest percentage of 12 personnel in the NFL last season to being the highest in week 1.

 

That signals a massive offensive philosophy shift.

 

But obviously it didn't look like that on the field, which was really just because of poor choices by Josh yesterday.

 

Josh played what I think was his worst game in the NFL yesterday.

 

So what? Disregard his previous 5 years? It took 5 years, but suddenly he's figured out?

 

Idiotic.

 

Josh will have bad games in the future obviously, but I think he needs to get his feet under him in this offensive philosophy. The Jets, in hindsight, may have been the worst team to trot out a new offensive philosophy and try to get comfortable against.

 

It was Monday night on September 11th in the general metropolitan area and the atmosphere was clearly electric. Hero Ball from Josh seemed almost inevitable looking back on it.

 

On top of all this, Sean McDermott is calling the defense (with a brand new young MLB) for the first time ever as Head Coach... mighta been an issue... particularly on an 83 yard run where everyone was misaligned.

 

I was actually impressed with the play of Bernard and especially Benford on our D.

 

 

I just think this idea that this national narrative in the offseason that "the Bills didn't improve because they stayed the same" is, at best, half true.

 

We still have to wait to see if the Bills improved... but a lot has changed:

 

Shift to 12 personnel 

All the offensive philosophies that go with that

Shift to HC as DC (How much is he in Josh's ear)

2 new OL

New QB of the Defense in Bernard 

New CB2

etc.

I remember when we picked Brady off 4 times when Fitz finally beat them and Aaron Rodgers had a 4 pick game against us as well. Burrow threw for 81 yards on Sunday…81! At least Allen could muster up more than 3 points against an equally hard defense. If Buffalo somehow pulled it off in OT then all sins would’ve been forgiven and we would be taking about how spectacular the defense looked. The fact that it was the 1st game of the season makes it much worse as we’ve waited months for this only to **** the bed. The Raiders and Commanders should be nice “get right” games so bring Buffalo back to a winning record and bring this board a little more optimism. 

[LABILLBACKER]

7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Fair question because I would also like to see Allen under Center a lot more. That's a Dorsey issue. 

 

But I think you could see the shifts in alignment and run philosophy as well. Just don't love all the shotgun habdoffs.

I hate shotgun handoffs and delayed draws because it immediately neutralizes the speed of your RB1.  It makes no sense. Cook receives the ball from a stopped position and must re-accelerate.  Just dumb playcalling. 

 

And this idea that we're in a traditional 12 personnel is not true. Kincaid is in the slot. More like 11 1/2 personnel. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

19 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

If this is acceptable to you, than you must be content with the fact that Allen will likely never reach a Super Bowl (barring a miracle), let alone win one.

He doesn't struggle against just elite defenses, either. He struggles again anyone who understands that all yopu have to do is run disguised coverages that give allen reads that he has a 1:1 matchup with a WR running deep. You give him that and he'll take it every time - hence the hail mary throws into double coverage while he has wide open receivers underneath.

If he's as good as he's ever going to be, he's not good enough.  I don't think that's true, but if it is, you have to find a new solution.

 

i’m sorry but again, you are way over reacting.

 

 

he’s definitely good enough to win a Super Bowl. We already know that.

 

am I content with him not being the best quarterback in the game today? Heck yeah. I’m also content with him still being a top three or top five quarterback. That’s completely reasonable.

 

until he is solidly, not a top quarterback, and for more than just one year, then we can say we have an issue. 
 

 

[BullBuchanan]

Just now, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

i’m sorry but again, you are way over reacting.

 

 

he’s definitely good enough to win a Super Bowl. We already know that.

 

am I content with him not being the best quarterback in the game today? Heck yeah. I’m also content with him still being a top three or top five quarterback. That’s completely reasonable.

 

until he is solidly, not a top quarterback, and for more than just one year, then we can say we have an issue. 
 

 

How do we know that? He's never come remotely close.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

7 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

How do we know that? He's never come remotely close.

Ha!

 

9 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

How do we know that? He's never come remotely close.

if a top three quarterback in the league isn’t good enough to win the Super Bowl then who is?

 

And what the heck are we complaining about?