A few topics/stats/info that have not been mentioned

[Einstein]

We have done a wonderful job covering Allen, Dorsey, Cook, etc. Here are a few different items:
 

1) When the Jets went 13 personnel, McDermott put Rapp into game as a nickel CB to essentially play a LB role. This often resulted in our DB's getting easily blocked and once the Jets rusher made it past the d-line, it was chunks of yardage. The Jets led the league in Week 1 in EPA/rush while in 13 personnel as a result Thoughts on this strategy? Seems... not ideal. Shouldn't we be matching 13 personnel with 3 LB's - especially with an aging defensive backfield of Hyde (32), Poyer (32), and Tre (turning 29 this season)?

 

2) According to PFF,  the RT (Spencer Brown) and LG (McGovern) accounted for a combined 47.4% of the pressures Allen faced. Nearly half of the pressures came from these two positions. Josh Allen accounted for 26.3% of his own pressures. Brown, McGovern and Allen were responsible for iover 70% of the pressure. The other 3 players on the line faired very well. 

 

3) Bernard was better than many (including myself) thought. His average depth of run-tackle was only 1 yard. Same as Milano. 

4) Lastly, just for fun, how do you feel the game would have unfolded if Rodgers hadn't been injured? Do we lose by multiple scores? Do we perhaps do better, knowing that we have to be more careful?

[zow2]

To your point #4,  I actually think the Bills would've sacked Rodgers 7-8 times in that game.  He can't move and the plan wasn't to sit back and get nickel and dimed to death.  Not sure if the outcome would have changed.  NY likely would have had more passing yardage, but the sacks could've resulted in turnovers or more 3 and outs.

[Mango]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

We have done a wonderful job covering Allen, Dorsey, Cook, etc. Here are a few different items:
 

1) When the Jets went 13 personnel, McDermott put Rapp into game as a nickel CB to essentially play a LB role. This often resulted in our DB's getting easily blocked and once the Jets rusher made it past the d-line, it was chunks of yardage. The Jets led the league in Week 1 in EPA/rush while in 13 personnel as a result Thoughts on this strategy? Seems... not ideal. Shouldn't we be matching 13 personnel with 3 LB's - especially with an aging defensive backfield of Hyde (32), Poyer (32), and Tre (turning 29 this season)?

 

2) According to PFF,  the RT (Spencer Brown) and LG (McGovern) accounted for a combined 47.4% of the pressures Allen faced. Nearly half of the pressures came from these two positions. Josh Allen accounted for 26.3% of his own pressures. Brown, McGovern and Allen were responsible for iover 70% of the pressure. The other 3 players on the line faired very well. 

 

3) Bernard was better than many (including myself) thought. His average depth of run-tackle was only 1 yard. Same as Milano. 

4) Lastly, just for fun, how do you feel the game would have unfolded if Rodgers hadn't been injured? Do we lose by multiple scores? Do we perhaps do better, knowing that we have to be more careful?

2. Our starting 5 OL all played 100% of snaps. 40% (2/5) allowing 47% of QB pressures isn’t bonkers. 
 

Here is a stat line nobody will want to see. Allen has averaged about 2 turnovers per game since week 1 2022. 
 

https://x.com/getnickwright/status/1701425069946220651?s=20

[78thealltimegreat]

Just now, Mango said:

2. Our starting 5 OL all played 100% of snaps. 40% (2/5) allowing 47% of QB pressures isn’t bonkers. 
 

Here is a stat line nobody will want to see. Allen has averaged about 2 turnovers per game since week 1 2022. 
 

https://x.com/getnickwright/status/1701425069946220651?s=20

Do you know who is second Patrick Mahomes and who is third Dak Prescott and who is 4th Matthew Stafford. 
 

[BarleyNY]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

We have done a wonderful job covering Allen, Dorsey, Cook, etc. Here are a few different items:
 

1) When the Jets went 13 personnel, McDermott put Rapp into game as a nickel CB to essentially play a LB role. This often resulted in our DB's getting easily blocked and once the Jets rusher made it past the d-line, it was chunks of yardage. The Jets led the league in Week 1 in EPA/rush while in 13 personnel as a result Thoughts on this strategy? Seems... not ideal. Shouldn't we be matching 13 personnel with 3 LB's - especially with an aging defensive backfield of Hyde (32), Poyer (32), and Tre (turning 29 this season)?

 

2) According to PFF,  the RT (Spencer Brown) and LG (McGovern) accounted for a combined 47.4% of the pressures Allen faced. Nearly half of the pressures came from these two positions. Josh Allen accounted for 26.3% of his own pressures. Brown, McGovern and Allen were responsible for iover 70% of the pressure. The other 3 players on the line faired very well. 

 

3) Bernard was better than many (including myself) thought. His average depth of run-tackle was only 1 yard. Same as Milano. 

4) Lastly, just for fun, how do you feel the game would have unfolded if Rodgers hadn't been injured? Do we lose by multiple scores? Do we perhaps do better, knowing that we have to be more careful?

 

Regarding point 1, you mean they took Tauron Johnson off the field and put Rapp on? They would be a true Big Nickel package. That’s better than a standard Nickel, but still light going against 13 personnel. So I agree, a base 4-3 would be as light as I’d want to see. 

[Einstein]

3 minutes ago, Mango said:

 40% (2/5) allowing 47% of QB pressures isn’t bonkers. 

It is when the QB is accounting for 26% of the pressure.

Therefore, the line accounted for 74%. An equal pressure rate per linemen would be 14.8% - Or 30% for two of them. 47% is highly disproportionate. 

[Simon]

11 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Bernard was better than many (including myself) thought. His average depth of run-tackle was only 1 yard. Same as Milano.

 

Curious where you saw this?

[Mango]

2 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Do you know who is second Patrick Mahomes and who is third Dak Prescott and who is 4th Matthew Stafford. 
 

That isn’t true once you calculate fumbles. 
 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-turnovers-by-a-nfl-player-from-2022-to-2023

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:

 

They would be a true Big Nickel package. That’s better than a standard Nickel, but still light going against 13 personnel. 

Correct. Rapp played big nickel against 13 personnel. 

[Jauronimo]

2 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

Curious where you saw this?

I guess when Bernard made tackles they were close to LOS.  And when Bernard hit the wrong hole, couldn't shed blockers, and was taken for a ride as the Jets gashed us in the run play, that was a neutral in the proprietary formula.

[78thealltimegreat]

1 minute ago, Mango said:

That isn’t true once you calculate fumbles. 
 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-turnovers-by-a-nfl-player-from-2022-to-2023

That’s on you to trash Josh not me 

[Einstein]

3 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

Curious where you saw this?

Sure. If you have an account, you can sort it here: https://premium.pff.com/nfl/positions/2023/REG/defense-run?position=LB

"AVDT" is average depth of tackle. 

 

For those who don't have a subscription: 

 

 

[Mango]

1 minute ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

That’s on you to trash Josh not me 

It’s not trashing. It was a bad game. A very bad game with a lot of turn overs for a guy who is prone to a huge amount of turnovers.

 

Talking about our QB averaging 2 turnovers a game for the last 365 days is a very reasonable talking point without you getting all upset about it. 

[MasterStrategist]

13 minutes ago, Einstein said:

We have done a wonderful job covering Allen, Dorsey, Cook, etc. Here are a few different items:
 

1) When the Jets went 13 personnel, McDermott put Rapp into game as a nickel CB to essentially play a LB role. This often resulted in our DB's getting easily blocked and once the Jets rusher made it past the d-line, it was chunks of yardage. The Jets led the league in Week 1 in EPA/rush while in 13 personnel as a result Thoughts on this strategy? Seems... not ideal. Shouldn't we be matching 13 personnel with 3 LB's - especially with an aging defensive backfield of Hyde (32), Poyer (32), and Tre (turning 29 this season)?

 

2) According to PFF,  the RT (Spencer Brown) and LG (McGovern) accounted for a combined 47.4% of the pressures Allen faced. Nearly half of the pressures came from these two positions. Josh Allen accounted for 26.3% of his own pressures. Brown, McGovern and Allen were responsible for iover 70% of the pressure. The other 3 players on the line faired very well. 

 

3) Bernard was better than many (including myself) thought. His average depth of run-tackle was only 1 yard. Same as Milano. 

4) Lastly, just for fun, how do you feel the game would have unfolded if Rodgers hadn't been injured? Do we lose by multiple scores? Do we perhaps do better, knowing that we have to be more careful?

1. Thought we didn't align properly on 2 big runs.  Coach partially addressed during post game presser. I'd rather have Rapp than say Dodson

 

2. Seems right.  McCovern had a lot of Quennin to deal with, thought he did fairly well.  Josh didn't help himself out and playcalls seemed to be designed to get the ball out faster...thought he held it too long several times

 

3. Bernard looked fine to me, he's got to rely on his instincts/beat blockers with quickness to the hole.  He did this as the game went on.  I think he'll continue to be better, and didn't look like a liability

 

4. Impossible to say, depends if Josh plays the same.  He turned it up a notch when needed, then lost that "urgency" immediately in OT.  If I had to guess, it's a 8-10 point loss at most.  I thought Rodgers was holding the ball too long and Zach Wilson, outside of his 1 INT actually played game manager OK.  

[78thealltimegreat]

Just now, Mango said:

It’s not trashing. It was a bad game. A very bad game with a lot of turn overs for a guy who is prone to a huge amount of turnovers.

 

Talking about our QB averaging 2 turnovers a game for the last 365 days is a very reasonable talking point without you getting all upset about it. 

That’s fine I just don’t care for Nick Wright as a man

[MJS]

It's an interesting question regarding Rodgers. For one thing, I think the Bills would have gotten more sacks and QB hits. Wilson is pretty quick and he avoided a lot of sacks. He was being chased all around the field. Rodgers is not as mobile, especially given his advanced age.

 

However, there is no way Rodgers throws that horrible INT that Wilson did.

 

I think the Bills still would have lost, for sure, but I don't know how different the score would be. Maybe the Jets win in regulation instead of overtime.

 

The issue was mostly Josh Allen, plus a few bad play calls. The defense were out of alignment a couple of times and they could have done better on certain plays, but they ultimately did their job. They held the Jets to one TD after being continually hung out to dry by Josh Allen's turnovers.

[ngbills]

20 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Sure. If you have an account, you can sort it here: https://premium.pff.com/nfl/positions/2023/REG/defense-run?position=LB

"AVDT" is average depth of tackle. 

 

For those who don't have a subscription: 

 

 

This is deceiving because it only takes into account if he made the tackle. Plays he was blocked and the guy runs 50 yards have no impact here.

 

Bernard did not get his first tackle vs run until the midway in the third quarter...says something. Half his tackles came when the Jets were just running the clock down.

 

QTR 1

0 tackes

QTR 2

0 tackles

QTR 3

First tackle was a 9 yard run

Second tackle was a 1 yard run that Oliver stuffed

QTR 4

Third was a 5yd run 

4th was a 2 yd QB sneak setting up FG w/ 2 min left running clock on 4 and 1

5th on a 1 yd run setting up FG w/ 2 min left running clock on 2 and 13

6th on a 6yd run setting up FG w/ 2 min left running clock on 3 and 12

 

23 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

I guess when Bernard made tackles they were close to LOS.  And when Bernard hit the wrong hole, couldn't shed blockers, and was taken for a ride as the Jets gashed us in the run play, that was a neutral in the proprietary formula.

I want to see stats on how many times he was pancaked. I saw at least a few. 

Edited September 12, 2023 by ngbills

[BillsUberAlles]

It's week 1. Stuff still needs to be ironed out. I wouldn't read much into it until week 4 or 5.

[chongli]

35 minutes ago, zow2 said:

To your point #4,  I actually think the Bills would've sacked Rodgers 7-8 times in that game.  He can't move

 

He moved well enough to avoid Rousseau on his first scramble. Ugh. [Still annoyed Groot didn't get the sack.]

[Einstein]

42 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

He moved well enough to avoid Rousseau on his first scramble. Ugh. [Still annoyed Groot didn't get the sack.]

I'm confident that he will have many sacks this year. I was concerned about him as a draft pick, but he looks primed for an excellent season.