Where is the data to suggest that things will change?

[The Frankish Reich]

Not so long ago everyone was talking about Mahomes getting frustrated by teams taking away the big play; he was trying to force it because he was tired of all those boring 11 play run/pass drives. For example:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/10/16/patrick-mahomes-chiefs-struggles/

He fixed it. Now, he did have Andy Reid. Can Ken Dorsey fix Allen? Ken Dorsey is no Andy Reid. I don't know yet whether Josh Allen is a Patrick Mahomes. Those are the big questions.

Edited September 12, 2023 by The Frankish Reich

[corta765]

1 minute ago, Virgil said:

 

I agree that he will win more than he loses.  I still expect playoffs and a double digit win.  

 

However, I still expect him to have one of these games in the playoffs to end our season.  I was hoping to see something to prove me wrong in the opener against a team he's struggled against, but didn't see it.  He actually played worse.  Which is why I'm not optimistic that we can push further in the postseason

 

Agree and it is why I said he has regressed or peaked in a sense like you said. At his best 2020, 21 playoffs, 1st half of last year he is patient and just waits before striking. Right now he feels more like a super improved 2019 version that is reckless but more boom then bust. Fine for regular season but it is fire come post season. Maybe it is his final learning to complete his growth OR maybe it is who he is. I have said forever that he will get them to a SB, but after that and how many more chances really depends. Play like yesterday makes me think he gives us one incredibly hot ride through a post season and we have a bunch others that go sideways.

[Success]

1 minute ago, Virgil said:

 

I completely agree.  But why do you believe we will win the whole thing?  What's different than the last 3 years?

 

A few things:

1) To me, the D-line is kind of a revelation this year.  Groot looked like a beast yesterday. Oliver was really good. Floyd is a great addition.  Even Epenesa chipped in. When Von comes back, we could have one of the better pass rushes in the league. That's a big change.

 

2) Upgrades on offense:  Kincaid is going to be a good one, and you can see what kind of problems he & Knox can create for opposing D's.  Cook & Harris are the best RB tandem we've had in quite awhile (Dorsey should use Harris more, imo).  The O-line was clearly better, which is huge.

 

3) Winning a SB is as much about getting hot at the right time as it is about talent. We sort of did the opposite last year - we were crazy hot early in the season, and just fizzled, for a variety of reasons which have been rehashed here often.  Who knows - maybe this is the year we start slow, and finish off fast (kind of like the Hail Murray year, where we really should have won it all).

 

I said it all offseason: this is the best team we've had in the JA era.  Beane addressed almost every need and deficiency in the offseason. The only area I think we're weaker is MLB, and Bernard did okay yesterday.  

 

We just need Josh Allen to play better than he did yesterday.  And that's a good bet.

 

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

The first week of the season was interesting, to say the least.  There were some scores and performances that were truly head scratchers.  While I could use the term "any given Sunday" for a lot of those games, the Bills game just feels different.  This didn't feel like a fluke game for Josh, the players, and the coaches.  No, this felt like the game right after the Bengals loss.  For me, that's why this game hurts so much.  I don't care that it was against the Jets or on MNF, I care that there is no data to suggest that this team has taken any type of step forward in the areas that matter.  

 

Now, there were positives in this game

• James Cook was clearly the number one back and did well enough in the role.  
• Defensive pass rush with Floyd and Groot looked really good.  However, isn't the Jets offensive line not that great?
• Milano looked like a beast and a true disrupter.  The PF was stupid on his part
• Bass continues to be solid
• Diggs got his touches and broke 100 yards

 

But here's where I'm just plain depressed and am hoping it wears off over the next few days, because right now...I have no reason to be optimistic about this upcoming season

• Dorsey actually looked decent in the first quarter.  Used Harty in a way that made me realize why we signed him.  Ran some power formations that he passed out of.  Overall had some good looks.  Once he ran through his scripted plays, is when things went off the rails
  • Did we run a single 12 man, basic line-up?  I'm talking 5 lineman, 1 TE on both sides, Diggs and Davis on the alternate sides out wide, and Cook in the backfield.  Very simple, very vanilla, just run formation with our guys against yours.  The Jets stayed in the same 4 lineman, 7 in coverage almost the entire game.  The linebackers, 2 or 3 at times, were 4-5 yards off the ball.  Why not just use basic match and say, our 7 guys are going to take out your front 4 and get an easy 3-5 yards each rush.  Run it to every possible gap, and repeat.  Sure, we may not get a first down every time, but do it until the Jets adjust because they would eventually have to.   That's when Josh eats.  This also sets up the play action, so we can use that guy we just spent a number one pick on.  Also, on the game tying drive at by Josh, that was one of the few drives that Josh did well because the Jets started to blitz.  This all seems so obvious to me, but maybe I'm missing something
  • The draw play on the last drive.   Should one play define a coordinators entire game?  No.  But when you run the ball against their best defensive lineman behind your worst offensive lineman, you need to explain that.  Again, maybe I'm stupid, I'm betting on that play to lose 10 times out of 10.
  • Where were the bunch formations?  Jets were in a spread zone and don't move Sauce around.  Bunch the other side of the field and run the tosses, quick screens to that side.  Again, basic math
• For the first time in Josh's career, I feel like he's peaked.  Great, elite QB's, don't do what Josh did tonight.  It's not the 3 interceptions and fumble, but it kind of is.  It's the fact that everyone knew how the Jets were going to play him.  Hell, even Josh knew and admitted it.  What does he do with this information?  The same thing he always does against defenses like this.  Take the underneath stuff to start the game, get frustrated, and then start pushing it downfield.  The first interception, I gave a pass.  He couldn't have ran with it like some people think because alternate camera angles showed a player waiting for him 7 yards downfield.  That interception was basically a punt.  The second interception was just plain stupid and potentially cost us at least 3 points, as we were a first down away from being in range.  The last two turnovers were all Josh and his lack of concentration.  You want to be elite?  We can't be talking about your ability to think in the 4th quarter.
• The big play ratio.  Count the big plays between teams?  The Jets had at least 2 and we had zero.  I'm talking chunk yardage plays.  No matter how much the defense changes we are good for at least two a game and it never changes.
• The big needs.  I've said all offseason that we needed to address OT, MLB, and pass catcher.  We got a pass catcher, but didn't feel the need to use him.  Brown was an absolute liability out there and Dorsey had to give him help on multiple plays.  Bernard got tackled as much by his own feet and teammates as he did the other team.  Dude got absolutely absorbed or blown up on multiple plays.  He did have one good tackle that showed promise, but McD finally stepped up and started bring Rapp into the game more.  Again, I wouldn't be so mad if the obvious weaknesses weren't so damn obvious and we all saw them coming.

 

So here we are, only 0-1 with a whole season ahead of us.  My problem is, what data is there to suggest that this season is going to be any different from the last 6.  Josh isn't taking the next step and adjusting his issues.  Dorsey doesn't know how to call plays to his players strengths, what is happening on the field, or make second half adjustments.  The defense is great, but gives up enough big plays to keep the other team in it.  We are good enough to beat 70% of the teams, but we can't step up in the big games when it matters.  13 seconds might be the best game of this teams era, but we still lost.  Because that's what we do in the big games.  Some part of our team finds a way to lose. 

 

I can't get excited for the Raiders and Commanders, because I still expect to win and it will mean nothing.  There's just no data to suggest that this team is going to take the next step and it became obvious in the first game of the season.  There's no data to suggest that this team can make adjustments.  Until further notice, I'm just meh about it all.  

 

And here's the only truly extreme comment I will make about changes.  I like McD and the culture he created.  But he's also no absorbed in the defense and hands off with the offense.  He's allowed Josh to surround himself with a coordinator that Josh likes and back-ups that are Josh's friends.  Josh needs someone who is going to bench his ass, punch him in the mouth, and make him actually accountable in the moment.  That doesn't exist right now except for Diggs.  That's not enough.  Josh isn't going to change on his own and right now, I don't know who else is going to push him.  If there is a downfall of McD, it will be that.

 

Go Bills

OK be honest, you wrote that out in word or something and cut and pasted it into this holy Christ

[RiotAct]

28 minutes ago, dgrochester55 said:

I was really down after the game but am trying to be more positive today.    Buffalo actually looked good in the first half.      The running game was better when they had the chance to play, Harty and Kincaid showed flashes and the defense was much improved from late last year.

 

The problem is that Allen had his worst game ever and fell apart in the second half.    What happens is contingent on whether Allen has one game like this or ten.    I want to be optimistic and point out that Favre, Kelly, Manning and Brady have had some clunkers in their career, but Allen seems to not have his head in the game recently. 

 

Agree.  I remember saying to my dad at halftime “that was a gread road half by the Bills”.   And it was!  But then the wheels came off in the 2nd half.

[schoolhouserock]

6 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

I agree that he will win more than he loses.  I still expect playoffs and a double digit win.  

 

However, I still expect him to have one of these games in the playoffs to end our season.  I was hoping to see something to prove me wrong in the opener against a team he's struggled against, but didn't see it.  He actually played worse.  Which is why I'm not optimistic that we can push further in the postseason

 

Given all we know, this is the most likely outcome. Ugh!

[Virgil]

1 minute ago, Success said:

 

A few things:

1) To me, the D-line is kind of a revelation this year.  Groot looked like a beast yesterday. Oliver was really good. Floyd is a great addition.  Even Epenesa chipped in. When Von comes back, we could have one of the better pass rushes in the league. That's a big change.

 

2) Upgrades on offense:  Kincaid is going to be a good one, and you can see what kind of problems he & Knox can create for opposing D's.  Cook & Harris are the best RB tandem we've had in quite awhile (Dorsey should use Harris more, imo).  The O-line was clearly better, which is huge.

 

3) Winning a SB is as much about getting hot at the right time as it is about talent. We sort of did the opposite last year - we were crazy hot early in the season, and just fizzled, for a variety of reasons which have been rehashed here often.  Who knows - maybe this is the year we start slow, and finish off fast (kind of like the Hail Murray year, where we really should have won it all).

 

I said it all offseason: this is the best team we've had in the JA era.  Beane addressed almost every need and deficiency in the offseason. The only area I think we're weaker is MLB, and Bernard did okay yesterday.  

 

We just need Josh Allen to play better than he did yesterday.  And that's a good bet.

 

 

To be clear, I'm just talking and not calling you out.  I don't take what you're saying as aggressive either.  But people are so quick to assume a fight, that this statement is more for anyone watching...

 

1 - Agreed, but that wasn't holding us back.  This is great for when we play the Chiefs and Bengals though

 

2 - Right now, I still have zero confident in Dorsey's ability to call plays to utilize them to their max potential

 

3 - I think that's the case every year, and not so much about the team as it is momentum.  It's the same in most sports, but I hate relying on that.  I want to be the team that makes adjustments and wins because they are better and played smart, not because things happened to work out.  I know that's not entirely what you are saying, but I hope you get my point

[CircleTheWagons99]

This team has no identity, no hart. 

[TheBrownBear]

19 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

The implosion on the board is absolutely hilarious. I've seen a topic complaining about everything from last night. It's absolutely hilarious. 

 

Like 2 years ago when we lost to the corpse of Big Ben... everyone thought the sky was falling and then Josh went on to have an MVP season taking second in voting..

 

Bills fans are actually the funniest group of people to watch complain after ANYTHING wrong happens. The most irrational people.

 

Week 1 in the NFL is a lie. It always has been. Teams look better than they are and most teams look worse than they are... cant tell that to the Bills fanbase though.. 

I agree to a point, but the concerns about Josh are legitimate.  His inconsistency and turnovers have been a recurring theme going back to the Green Bay game last year.  It's no longer a small sample size or a blip on the radar.

[Virgil]

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

OK be honest, you wrote that out in word or something and cut and pasted it into this holy Christ

 

What do you mean?  I honestly just wrote that from the top of my head.  

 

If I ever try to proof read or slow down as I write, it turns into an absolute mess

[RunTheBall]

Josh’s issues are 100% mental. The question is, can he get get back to a more calm mindset during games and if so how long will that take?

 

He was almost in a manic state out there. Throwing his body around, scrambling out of clean pockets, heaving backyard bombs to the other team.

 

I’m not a huge Dorsey fan, but his gameplan was not the problem. That’s EXACTLY how you attack a 2 deep shell with quarters or palm coverage. You hit the flats/slants/middle and run the ball (effectively) until the safeties start to creep down or they switch out of it. That’s football 101! 

 

Mahomes had the exact same problem and worked his way through it. Josh either doesn’t trust Dorsey’s gameplan or simply doesn’t have the patience to see it through. If it’s the latter we are in deep sht because every team is going to play him the same way until he demonstrates he’s mastered it.

 

I think he has the football intelligence to turn it around. He knows he let his team down big time. Hopefully that humbles him enough to stop going off script when he doesn’t need to and start trusting the game plans that are developed.

 

[SCBills]

"Every drive needs to end in a kick"

 

(Turns the ball over 4 times)

 

"I need to protect myself better"

 

(Seeks out contact for no reason)

 

The guy doesn't learn and nobody on this coaching staff seems capable of holding him accountable and making him do so.   

 

The difference between Allen and Mahomes/Burrow is maturity.  They've matured and understand that they can't be selfish and just do whatever they want out there.  Allen has not. 

 

 

Edited September 12, 2023 by SCBills

[Lost]

3 minutes ago, CircleTheWagons99 said:

This team has no identity, no hart. 

 

Hey I'm all for bringing him in at this point.   We could sign Kevin and he still wouldn't be the shortest guy on the team.  

 

[ngbills]

This is a continuation of a growing downward trend in this team. Most dont want to admit it but much of last year felt like a chore. Yes there was some big wins etc but nothing looked easy or like the guys wanted to be there. 

[Success]

1 minute ago, Virgil said:

 

To be clear, I'm just talking and not calling you out.  I don't take what you're saying as aggressive either.  But people are so quick to assume a fight, that this statement is more for anyone watching...

 

1 - Agreed, but that wasn't holding us back.  This is great for when we play the Chiefs and Bengals though

 

2 - Right now, I still have zero confident in Dorsey's ability to call plays to utilize them to their max potential

 

3 - I think that's the case every year, and not so much about the team as it is momentum.  It's the same in most sports, but I hate relying on that.  I want to be the team that makes adjustments and wins because they are better and played smart, not because things happened to work out.  I know that's not entirely what you are saying, but I hope you get my point

 

Oh, for sure on your 1st paragraph there - I didn't take it as a call out.  I always respect your posting here. This is just good discussion.

 

And I don't like relying on momentum either. But as good as this team is, it doesn't seem like it could turn into the kind of force that wouldn't need some intangibles to get the title.  I think in most years, the team that wins it all is also not just the hottest at that time, but kind of lucky too.  That is certainly true of last year's Chiefs, who both got hot, and also got some very favorable officiating in the AFCCG and SB.

 

Honestly, the one thing that concerns me about this team is not Allen's detours into Favre-land (and I think that's the most appropriate comparison for him as a QB - a gunslinger who you have to take the bad w/ at times).  I do worry that McDermott and Dorsey just aren't up to the task.  McD has done a wonderful job turning this team into a contender, but I don't have faith right now that he can get us to a title.  I hope I'm wrong. People used to look at Reid the same way, when he was in Philly - so that gives me some hope.

 

[Airseven]

14 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I don't know yet whether Josh Allen is a Patrick Mahomes.

Yes you do.

[CircleTheWagons99]

2 minutes ago, Lost said:

 

Hey I'm all for bringing him in at this point.   We could sign Kevin and he still wouldn't be the shortest guy on the team.  

 

LOL. Heart* missed the E. 

[corta765]

12 minutes ago, Success said:

1) To me, the D-line is kind of a revelation this year.  Groot looked like a beast yesterday. Oliver was really good. Floyd is a great addition.  Even Epenesa chipped in. When Von comes back, we could have one of the better pass rushes in the league. That's a big change.

 

2) Upgrades on offense:  Kincaid is going to be a good one, and you can see what kind of problems he & Knox can create for opposing D's.  Cook & Harris are the best RB tandem we've had in quite awhile (Dorsey should use Harris more, imo).  The O-line was clearly better, which is huge

 

 

The d-line is going to be a force and by seasons end top 3 in the league. I think fans are in for a ride with the line like the 2014 group fingers crossed injury wise. Let Groot and Floyd eat and mix Von and the rest carefully in as they go.

 

2. I am not as upset with Dorsey as some. This game was on Josh forcing plays and not taking what was given. I liked the attempt at yac, the screens, and Knox/Kincaid together in the middle should eat yards as the season progress. Brown sucked, but the rest were fine and Torrence looks great to have. I am willing to give Dorsey some time, I just need him to get Josh to chill more. A RT trade would be lovely though at the deadline.

[Bubba Gump]

53 minutes ago, PayDaBill$ said:

Are you kidding me? This isn’t a one off performance from JA it’s been a trend.

 

He’s regressing and not improving. He gets flustered his 👀 get the wild look and watch out.

 

Right now he’s an inconsistent unpredictable QB. All one has to do is look at his TO numbers.  
 

 

 

 

Brian Daboll had Allen on the right track. He held him accountable. Dorsey has no clue what he is doing. Josh lobbied for KD to be the next OC. This team relies on "friendships" too much. And they will not admit to their mistakes. Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, Kaiir Elam. Beane's ego is starting to become a problem. I knew things started to seem fishy when you hire a first time head coach, and then let him decide who to hire as GM. All this buddy buddy ***** has to stop at some point. Daboll and Schoen are doing the exact same thing the Bills have been doing in regards to the Carolina connection. 

 

Jesus, I'm miserable today, lol. Hopefully being at the Raiders game Sunday changes my attitude. 

[CircleTheWagons99]

7 minutes ago, Lost said:

 

Hey I'm all for bringing him in at this point.   We could sign Kevin and he still wouldn't be the shortest guy on the team.  

 

And thank you for making me laugh!