THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Ain’t No Stoppin’ Us Now

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

I like it

 

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Any reasonable analysis puts them behind the Chiefs and Bengals now. If Chiefs and Bengals go further than the Bills in the playoffs this season, then any analysis would put the Bills behind them.  And those are good teams.  

I don't know that you're right, that any reasonable analysis puts them behind the Chiefs and Bengals.  I agree, looking backward, they definitely were third.   Looking forward, I think one could reach a different conclusion.  

53 minutes ago, stuvian said:

Our window will never be more open than it is now. We know that on a given day we can beat the best teams. While the Eagles and Bengals still scare me, our greatest adversary is complacency. I hope we are angry enough at our near misses to come together and grasp our destiny. McDermott no longer has Daboll or Frazier as buffers. It is up to him to set a tone of achievement and accountability for us to take the next step to the promised land. I think he is up to the task but it will require digging deep on everyone's part.

They might have been complacent last season, but my point is that I don't see them being complacent this season.  I think they ache to win this season, and the ache will be there all season.  Salonpas won't work; there's only one cure for that ache. 

[Chaos]

10 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't know that you're right, that any reasonable analysis puts them behind the Chiefs and Bengals.  I agree, looking backward, they definitely were third.   Looking forward, I think one could reach a different conclusion.  

This is why I disagree.  The Bills torched the Chiefs in the regular season.  They had much better regular season offensive rankings, defensive rankings, and win loss records than the Bengals did.  And none of that mattered.  If the Bills go 17-0, have the number offense, and the number one defense, and Bills fans end up watching a Chiefs - Bengals AFC championship rematch, to me, it means the Bills were never ahead of either of those teams.   Just an illusion that they were. 

In other words, no reasonable analysis can be conducted before the playoffs are over. 

Edited September 9, 2023 by Chaos

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, Chaos said:

This is why I disagree.  The Bills torched the Chiefs in the regular season.  They had much better regular season offensive rankings, defensive rankings, and win loss records than the Bengals did.  And none of that mattered.  If the Bills go 17-0, have the number offense, and the number one defense, and Bills fans end up watching a Chiefs - Bengals AFC championship rematch, to me, it means the Bills were never ahead of either of those teams.   Just an illusion that they were. 

In other words, no reasonable analysis can be conducted before the playoffs are over. 

It's amazing how much your view is strictly rear view mirror.   Nothing wrong with that.   "No reasonable analysis can be conducted before the playoffs are over."   I get it.  It's a different version of Parcells saying, "You are what your record says you are."

 

However, that's analysis of games played.  It is true that one can conduct a thorough analysis of 2022 and conclude that the Bills were the third best team in the conference, but that doesn't mean they can't be the best team in the conference in 2023 before the season is over.  

 

I can't argue personnel, and changes that teams have made, and the evolution of the game, and whatever, but I know there are plenty of arguments that can be made today that the Bills are better than the Chiefs.   Arguments like their offensive line got worse and the Bills O line go better.  Arguments like anyone who watched their receivers on Thursday has to wonder about the continuing effectiveness of their passing game.   Arguments like they are weeks away, and could be months away, from getting Chris Jones back.  

 

What happened last season is a starting point, but there are objective facts that exist today that need to be factored into any analysis of the relative strength of teams.  

[Chaos]

8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

What happened last season is a starting point, but there are objective facts that exist today that need to be factored into any analysis of the relative strength of teams.  

You are assuming a correlation of regular season success to playoff success that is just not supported by results since the playoff expansion era to 12 and 14 teams.  Since there is no such correlation, there is very little you can accurately conclude from the regular season, with the exception of a top team unexpectly not making the playoffs at all. 

One possible reason is that some coaching staffs have better adapted to the 17 game schedule and 14 playoff teams concept, than other coaching staffs.  

Edited September 9, 2023 by Chaos

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, Chaos said:

You are assuming a correlation of regular season success to playoff success that is just not supported by results since the playoff expansion era to 12 and 14 teams. 

You're just wrong about this.  Bengals Chiefs and Eagles last season, best or among the very best in the regular season.  

 

Teams with the bye regularly have great playoff success.   

[Chaos]

8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You're just wrong about this.  Bengals Chiefs and Eagles last season, best or among the very best in the regular season.  

 

Teams with the bye regularly have great playoff success.   

Bills were ahead of Bengals in every category the last two years including win-loss record. Eagles are in the minor league NFC.  Not really on par with the top AFC teams. So I stand by my statement, which covers the entire expanded playoff period.   

This not about a whether or not the Bills are among the top teams.  The Bills are a top team.  The discussion whether or not the Bills are better than third in the AFC.  During the regular season the tlast two years, the Bills were ahead of the Bengals in the regular seaons. , yet did not finish ahead of the bengals in the post season. 

So your single year data point, actually supports my side of  the argument that the Bills being ahead of the Bengals in the regular season has no correlation to finishing ahead of the Bengals in the post season. 

Edited September 9, 2023 by Chaos

[jkeerie]

When you think about how much the Bills won last year...notwithstanding the last game vs the Bengals...with so many injuries and having to play 2nd stringers a lot,  a wide receiving corps that left a lot to be desired, and an oline that was nothing to write home about...they should be loaded for bear this year!  Go Bills!

[Scott7975]

I like your enthusiasm Shaw.  I love my Bills, but I am having a weird year and I just can't figure it out. Normally, I would be pumped for the season, spending all day and night on these forums, watching youtube hype vids, listening to WGR, all the things all day every day.  Yet I am not.  I am here daily but just checking in once and a while.  I haven't touched Youtube hype vids or even listened to WGR but maybe a couple times.  It's not that I don't feel as if we can't win it all. It's not that I am down on the team or anything like that.  I just aint feeling all hyped.  Maybe that changes on gameday.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

I like your enthusiasm Shaw.  I love my Bills, but I am having a weird year and I just can't figure it out. Normally, I would be pumped for the season, spending all day and night on these forums, watching youtube hype vids, listening to WGR, all the things all day every day.  Yet I am not.  I am here daily but just checking in once and a while.  I haven't touched Youtube hype vids or even listened to WGR but maybe a couple times.  It's not that I don't feel as if we can't win it all. It's not that I am down on the team or anything like that.  I just aint feeling all hyped.  Maybe that changes on gameday.

Actually, that's not unlike how I've felt.   I come here often to find out the news, but I'm not watching video or finding podcasts like I was doing last year at this time.   Last year I was really wired.  Amped up.  This year I'm anxious.  I don't know what the season will bring.  But I've realized that part of the reason I'm feeling this way is that the team seems to be feeling different, too.   Last year, early in the year, it felt like some big coming out party, and everyone was having a good time.  This year, not so much.   This isn't a party, it's a grind, and not just for the players.  It is for the fans too, and I think that feeling your having is that you know it's starting - the grind and not the party. 

 

I think it was here that someone posted about Urban Meyer at Florida.  He said winning was anticlimactic.  The accomplishment wasn't the joy of winning the game; it was the satisfaction that comes from doing what needs to be done so that the winning happens.  

 

I think successful coaches and players focus on doing those things that need to be done, understanding that the winning will take care of itself.  

 

I felt that feeling last spring.  I'm a UConn basketball fan, go to some games, watch a few games.   Dan Hurley is a lot like McDermott - family ethic, constant improvement, positive mindset, etc.   As the season went by, and as the team kept getting better and better, the winning was less and less of a surprise.   They got into the tournament, and it became clear to me that no one was going to beat them.  It was the result of the work they'd done for the previous six months.   I've watched all their championships, and I was the least excited for this one.   

 

Maybe I'm just old. 

[dwight in philly]

Shaw 66 and myself are old-times , i think.. lived thru it all, seen it all.. and  I agree with him regarding this season.. Being simplistic , totally out of the weeds , they stay healthy , it happens.. Have absolutely no doubt .. 

[Joe Ferguson]

Chris Simms playoff seeding prediction.

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Actually, that's not unlike how I've felt.   I come here often to find out the news, but I'm not watching video or finding podcasts like I was doing last year at this time.   Last year I was really wired.  Amped up.  This year I'm anxious.  I don't know what the season will bring.  But I've realized that part of the reason I'm feeling this way is that the team seems to be feeling different, too.   Last year, early in the year, it felt like some big coming out party, and everyone was having a good time.  This year, not so much.   This isn't a party, it's a grind, and not just for the players.  It is for the fans too, and I think that feeling your having is that you know it's starting - the grind and not the party. 

 

I think it was here that someone posted about Urban Meyer at Florida.  He said winning was anticlimactic.  The accomplishment wasn't the joy of winning the game; it was the satisfaction that comes from doing what needs to be done so that the winning happens.  

 

I think successful coaches and players focus on doing those things that need to be done, understanding that the winning will take care of itself.  

 

I felt that feeling last spring.  I'm a UConn basketball fan, go to some games, watch a few games.   Dan Hurley is a lot like McDermott - family ethic, constant improvement, positive mindset, etc.   As the season went by, and as the team kept getting better and better, the winning was less and less of a surprise.   They got into the tournament, and it became clear to me that no one was going to beat them.  It was the result of the work they'd done for the previous six months.   I've watched all their championships, and I was the least excited for this one.   

 

Maybe I'm just old. 

You're not alone Shaw. I'm anxious,  old and feeling like how many more opportunities are we going to have?  Obviously we have to hurdle Mahomes & Burrow just to face the NFC.  Last year's clusterF of unfortunate events can't possibly happen again?  Our talent in spite of a brutal schedule will get us back in the playoffs. The problem is how healthy and especially "motivated" will these players be?  It's well documented that only 7-10% of NFL players have a competitive passion. The rest are there for the bag.  And it's no newsflash that we want a Lombardi more than those 90%. Guys like Josh, Stephon, Von & maybe Milano have those competitive juices. It's 100% out of our control. 

[HOUSE]

Very nice Shaw 👌 

[DCBongo]

As always, a solid piece!  I think you are on point.  The Jets are all hat, no cowboy.  The Bills are old school mafia.  They don't talk about their greatness (Jets ought not make comparisons to the 85 Bears quite yet), they just will gladly show you.

[ganesh]

8 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

This is my hope for the Buffalo Bills for the 2023 season.  I’d like to say it’s my prediction, but I don’t have a lot of evidence to back it up.  I have a feeling for how the season will go, and I hope I’m right.

 

I expect the Bills to have a very successful season.  I expect they will win the AFC Championship, and I expect they will win the Super Bowl.  No, I don’t feel that way every season.  I believed it could happen last season, but I didn’t expect it.

 

So, what’s different this season?   I think the Bills have a new attitude.  I think they’ve stopped reading and listening to all the people who say how great they will be (in part because a lot of people have stopped saying it). 

 

I think they’re, in a word, pissed off.  Okay, two words.  They know they could have won it either of the past two seasons, and they have developed a mindset for winning.  I told you, I don’t have a lot of evidence, but I think that’s where they are.

 

I think many or most or all of the Bills players have developed an assassin’s mindset.  The Bills are a team full of assets from a Bourne movie – highly skilled, single minded operatives determined to overcome any obstacle to achieve an objective.

 

Why do I think this?  Well, maybe it’s only because that’s what I want them to be, but I think I hear it, or don’t hear it, in what the Bills are saying.  They’re not talking about their greatness, or what they’re going to achieve, or how they want to do this for Buffalo, or anything like that.   All they’ve really said is that they were enormously disappointed with how they finished the 2022 season. 

 

Allen said the other day the captains are holding everyone accountable.  Diggs is telling his teammates they “stink.”  I fully expect Diggs and Allen are telling Dorsey that he has to give them stuff they can execute and hurt teams with.  Dorsey is demanding that Allen play with the discipline the position requires.  I get the feeling they’re still a touchy-feely family, but there’s an element of tough love now.   Guys like Bernard and Kincaid and Torrence are feeling the pressure, because they can see the excellence and the intensity their teammates are bringing.  They know they must match it.  And in a few weeks, Miller’s coming back, and he’s going to take the focus to a higher level. 

 

In their heads, they know they can beat anyone and they know they can win it all.  They know it.  I think they’re coming into the season determined and with an understanding of what it takes:   Everything, every game. 

 

For example, I think they will beat the Jets.  I don’t know the Jets lineup at all, and I’ve seen all the hype.  I know the Jets will be prepared mentally and emotionally.  I don’t think it will matter.  I expect the Bills to be prepared mentally and emotionally to an extent that the Jets don’t yet understand. The Bills know how to win a marquee game like this, because they’ve won and lost them.  They’ve had a few weeks to get ready.  They will come with preparation and intensity that the Jets won’t match. 

 

When week two comes, the Bills will remind themselves that they know what it takes, and they will be prepared again.  And then week three.  And when December and January and February comes, the determination still will burn in them.  The Bills now understand, they know what they want, and they will not be stopped.  

 

All season long they will come at opponents with the quiet, unstoppable ferocity of an assassin.  Occasionally, something will go wrong, the ball will bounce the wrong way, some team will match their intensity, but the Bills will recover and move on. 

 

This will be the year.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

 

 

There is plenty of evidence that they will be extremely good again.

* Last year They lost a total of three games by a net 8 points.

* Last year They lost critical players to injuries and it hurt them when it mattered (playoffs)

* This year those critical players are coming back from their injuries 

* This year the Bills are going to give a deeper look to some of the talent they have stockpiled -  Cook, Kincaid, Cyrus 

* This year we have a different mindset to the defense with a new DC 

 

Can Allen avoid the critical redzone mistakes 

Can the defense stop the run 

Can the coaches leverage the talent and put the best players on the field to execute.

 

Go Bills!

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

You're not alone Shaw. I'm anxious,  old and feeling like how many more opportunities are we going to have?  Obviously we have to hurdle Mahomes & Burrow just to face the NFC.  Last year's clusterF of unfortunate events can't possibly happen again?  Our talent in spite of a brutal schedule will get us back in the playoffs. The problem is how healthy and especially "motivated" will these players be?  It's well documented that only 7-10% of NFL players have a competitive passion. The rest are there for the bag.  And it's no newsflash that we want a Lombardi more than those 90%. Guys like Josh, Stephon, Von & maybe Milano have those competitive juices. It's 100% out of our control. 

The key is going to have our coaching staff have the ability to put all of young players on the field;  folks who have the raw speed and abiiities.   We can't be a sit and watch type of team scraping through wins. 

[Shaw66]

48 minutes ago, ganesh said:

There is plenty of evidence that they will be extremely good again.

* Last year They lost a total of three games by a net 8 points.

* Last year They lost critical players to injuries and it hurt them when it mattered (playoffs)

* This year those critical players are coming back from their injuries 

* This year the Bills are going to give a deeper look to some of the talent they have stockpiled -  Cook, Kincaid, Cyrus 

* This year we have a different mindset to the defense with a new DC 

 

 

But Chaos says all the evidence from last year says they won't be good enough.  Did you watch a different season than he did?

[HomeTeam]

The Bills will go as far as the offensive and defensive lines take them. I don't want a finesse team, I want a team full of dawgs that can compete with the 49ers and Eagles of the world. 

 

Last year was a real grind of a season. This year, I'm just going to just enjoy the ride. 

 

Thank you for the post as always. 

[ganesh]

9 hours ago, stuvian said:

Our window will never be more open than it is now. We know that on a given day we can beat the best teams. While the Eagles and Bengals still scare me, our greatest adversary is complacency. I hope we are angry enough at our near misses to come together and grasp our destiny. McDermott no longer has Daboll or Frazier as buffers. It is up to him to set a tone of achievement and accountability for us to take the next step to the promised land. I think he is up to the task but it will require digging deep on everyone's part.

This team has its A** whopped last year in the divisional round for them to carry any type of complacency into this season.  They are the MIGHTY UNDERDOGS  when compared to the Chiefs and the Bengals.  

 

This team may not look the same next year and in that there is a sense of urgency in the veterans to go all out.  

 

[NewEra]

9 hours ago, Chaos said:

Any reasonable analysis puts them behind the Chiefs and Bengals now. If Chiefs and Bengals go further than the Bills in the playoffs this season, then any analysis would put the Bills behind them.  And those are good teams.  

Vegas is more than a reasonable analysis…… No?  
 

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