Random talking head says something about the Bills

[BuffaloBillyG]

56 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It would have to be a very terrible blunder for him to get canned this year I think. I'm not sure I see it. Not saying he should be safe if he makes a poor coaching decision, but I think he would be unless it genuinely was like very terrible. 

 

Agree to calm the narrative around him down he needs to at least get to the AFCCG. If he does that and loses there to KC or Baltimore there would still be criticism but it would be considerably less vociferous. 

This kinda describes my thoughts as well. Let me say I like McDermott. Think he's a heck of a coach and leader.

 

But should it come to pass we get bounced at home in a third straight postseason as the 2 seed...his seat needs to be really hot going into next year at minimum. Even by his own standards, the "growth mindset" he would be failing. 

[KentuckyBillsFan]

If McD doesn't get to at least the AFCG I would prefer we move on but I doubt that's going to happen

 

I still think he's a liability in the big moments 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

McD has earned a lot of cushion (warranted imho) for the way the Bills responded this year to losing so much of their core cadre from last year, and being almost universally expected to have a rebuilding middling type year at best—all whilst dragging along a staggering dead cap hit of 64.2 million!! Yes Josh Allen’s continued maturation under Brady is the single most important piece of this, but McD has created the environment and culture to allow that process to thrive. 

[GunnerBill]

55 minutes ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:

Your Gold Standard is that McClapper’s D stopped Skylar Thompson? 🙄

Which they didn’t,regardless of field placement. 
 

 

They did. But I never said that was my gold standard. Where did you get that from? I just corrected an incorrect statement. 

[Alphadawg7]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I agree. I don't think any realistic chance he is fired this year. From everything I was told previously the relationship with Terry is solid and to hear him talk about Sean in the 10 years of ownership video it's almost a father - son type deal. And I don't think Terry lets Beane and McDermott embark on their re-set last February / March without an acknowledgment that it might affect their championship chances in 2024. However, a third home playoff loss, and worse, one in the wildcard round to a team the Bills are clearly better than would I think heat the seat up signifcantly going into 2025 and then I think they might be in its "now or never" type territory. Losing a heartbreaker to Baltimore or Kansas City doesn't get them there, IMO. Losing at home to Denver or Miami would.

 

Yup, exactly my thoughts as well, totally agree with all of this.  

 

I mean McD has a case for COY right now (he wont win it, but he has a case) after exceeding just about everyones expectations, which I would bet money includes the Bills in house as I seriously doubt they came into the season expecting to go 13-3 and lock down the 2 seed at this stage.  Especially with the perceived schedule we had coming in during a season with so much change with a mini reset.  

 

But with exceeding reg season expectations come raised expectations in the postseason.  So despite his regular season accomplishments, another disappointing early exit at home would absolutely put him on the hot seat, but his over achieving regular season likely buys him next year.  I mean all 3 of our losses were to playoff teams, so I think if we got upset at home early in the playoffs there would be some built in benefit of the doubt he would get where the whole "transition year" comes back into play where they can say he "overachieved" in the regular season with a team that didn't have all the pieces to consistently beat the caliber of teams in the postseason.  

 

 

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

5 hours ago, VaMilBill said:

I really believe that with the Sabres being a mess and Terry’s and Kim’s medical issues at home, I don’t think Terry will want to fire McD and destabilize the bills. He’s got a good thing going and needs to sell PSLs at the new stadium still. McD can win. It just hasn’t translated to the post-season

So that's where we're permanently stuck. Terry will never fire McD. Josh is so great we're guaranteed 10+ wins every year and playoffs.  Nothing beyond that. That's basically our future.  Take it or leave. And as several fans have told me, we can do nothing about it.  I guess the passion to chase a championship isn't as strong in Buffalo as it is in other organizations.  

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'm not commenting on the McDermott piece, we have exchanged views on that. Neither is changing the other's mind based on re-hashing the past. Minds will only be changed, in either direction, based on what happens in the future. 

 

But I did want to comment on the where is this time and how should we honest assess it. I'm not sure I'd describe them as fool's gold. I think they are legitimately a 13-3 football team. I actually think in respect of the two "statement" wins as you call them, neither of those games were as close as the scoreboard made them look. The Bills were the better team in both contests and deservedly won the games. They outcoached and outexecuted their opponents on the two biggest stages of their season. 

 

That said, what I think you were getting at - which is reasons to be concerned going into the playoffs - I think there is a big one that is more acute than in previous years and that is the defense is not very good. The defense hasn't played well enough in recent playoff exits - that is true - but those defenses have been good defenses that for whatever reasons be it coaching, execution, injuries, or being put in bad spots by the offense on occasion have not lived up to that billing in the post season. This feels different. This is a poor defense right now. The Bills are 21st in yards allowed. That would be their worst output since 2017 when McDermott and Frazier were trying to run their defense largely with players acquired for a totally different scheme. But I think even that is a slight sugar coating. I have long since believed 3rd down % is where you truly judge how good a defense is. Yards and points to an extent can be influenced by other things - the 2018 Bills finished 2nd in yards allowed and while that D was a decent defense its yardage totals were helped by the offense turning it over so much, hard to give up 70 yard drives when the O turns it over inside its own territory a ton - special teams and offense factor in. 3rd down is just a referendum on the defense - the Bills were 19th last year but in the Frazier era were consistently top 10. The Bills went into yesterday 31st in the NFL at 44.4% given up and yesterday gave up 4 of 9 for, you guessed it 44.4%. I just don't know how you hope to improve that in the playoffs. Maybe there is a magic formula somewhere that Babich has been hiding all year but they look so non-fundamentally sound to me compared to the Bills defense that we have been used to seeing.

 

The argument goes, from some, the Bills D has always been one that can be got by really talented offenses executing at a high level (I mean so can ANY defense to an extent, that is the NFL) but at the moment it doesn't require that. They are dropping more underneath coverages than I have ever seen, they have two defenders guarding the same guy while someone else is open more than I have seen they just look uncoordinated. I don't know whether that is a result of the injuries this year where guys have been in and out of the lineup - particularly in the back seven - and if that has affected continuity or if it is just talent (Milan declining - though he played his best game yesterday, Bernard regressing a bit from last year, Rapp and Hamlin just not being the level of the players they replaced, Douglas coming back to earth which was always likely) or whether it is a result of the coaching changes (it isn't just Babich taking over as DC but Marcus West was promoted to his first DL coach job in the pros, their corners coach is in his first gig in the pros and Al Holcombe was here last year but is in his first year taking over from Babich as linebackers coach that is a lot of churn and a fair amount of experience leaving the building in Eric Washington and Joh Butler). It's probably a combination of all three but it is definitely concerning. There will be those who say "McDermott is supposed to be a defensive guru he should just sort it out." And sure, he is. But the life of an NFL Head Coach there is just not enough time to be that hands on in preparing the defense. Even last year when Washington and Holcomb were handling some of that but McDermott was calling the plays I thought it affected his overally capacity to lead the team effectively. There just isn't time mid season for a Head Coach to spend the level of time fixing the unit. That isn't to absolve McDermott of accountability for what we are seeing. He is the Head Coach and when a  unit is failing on offense, or defense, it is on him ultimately. He hired Babich as a first time DC and then lost his two most experienced position coaches and replaced them with rookies. To the extent that the coaching churn has impacted defensive performance that is on McDermott. To the extent some of it is personnel related that is on Beane (I have been saying for years don't let Poyer and Hyde walk at the same time for instance, good roster management would have been staggering their departures and for about the 4th year running he has had to turn to vets off the street mid season to patch up his botched offseason work on the dline). 

 

How have they kept their head above water? As you say, its turnovers. How sustainable is that is a fair question. After yesterday we are at 16 interceptions and that is about standard for this team. They have had between 15 and 19 every year since 2020. Their scheme with enough disguise and baiting/inviting enough throws into zones between defenders pretty consistently generates that. I don't think there is a ton of randomness about it. Where we are a bit up on the average this year is fumbles forced and recovered. We are at 15. Our previous high is 12. That is the turnover type where there is most inherent randomness anyway - it's a funny shaped ball that does not bounce predictably and where it goes when it's on the floor is often down to luck. I do think I have seen the Bills defenders raking at the ball as a point of emphasis this year more than I can ever remember - so I give the coaches some credit for that - but it is a slight reason for concern that one of the areas we are overperforming in keeping our heads above water is the one with the most inherent randomness and therefore, it is safe to assume, the least sustainability. FWIW in the playoffs they have generated turnovers. They have 9 turnovers in 9 playoff games since the 2020 post-season. Though fair to point out of the 3 playoff games where they have failed to generate one two were ultimately elimination games: 13 seconds and the Cincy loss. I think the part that has not got enough focus in terms of helping the defense stay above water is how well the offense has avoided turnovers. Through 16 games the Bills have only 8 giveaways. You have to go back to the 2019 Saints for the last time that was the case. Had the offense put them in bad spots - like it did a lot last year - it might be safe to assume the D's numbers would look even worse. In previous years people have said they'd trade the defense giving up more yards for a few more splash plays to take the ball away, get teams off the field. I think that is kind of what this D is right now (even in the first half yesterday it didn't play well but Groot/Phillips and then Epenesa made big splash plays at critical moments) not necessarily by design but by necessity. 

 

So how is a team with what I think we have established is a legitimately bad defense (compared to their own standards in previous regular seasons) legitimately 13-3? It is because the offense has played really well. Franchise records in points scored and touchdowns scored. That's incredible. That said one of the three losses - Houston - was unquestionably on the offense. But essentially it comes down to the fact Joe Brady has done a great job and Josh Allen is playing the best ball of his career. He is almost certainly the MVP. I do give McDermott and Beane some credit there - McDermott's decision to fire Dorsey when he did and bring a lot of spotlight on himself was a courageous one, but a right one and Brady has been a slam dunk hire. Beane's decision to take what had been a decent oline last year, pay Spencer Brown after basically one decent year, move on from Morse and keep Edwards, moving McGovern to center was questioned by a lot of fans but he got that spot on as a personnel calculation. Given a clever coordinator and the best line he has had in his career, Josh Allen has been the best Quarterback in football, even without stellar receiving talent around him. The record you want to watch the Bills go for next week is the 14th guy to have a receiving touchdown. This is the second time they have tied the NFL record of 13 players - 2020 was the other and they tried to feed Taiwan Jones an endzone catch in the final week of the season to break it. If Mitch plays at least most of the New England game watch for Davidson, Hamler, or Virgil being elevated from the PS and getting looks to score. 

 

I know that is a long post - quiet work day between xmas and new year - but here is the conclusion on where to my mind it leaves us going into the post-season I think compared to this time last year I have more confidence in the offense, and less confidence in the defense.  But by the time we got to that KC game last year any confidence in the defense was evaporated by the injuries. If this D can stay healthy and somehow play its best game (which they pretty much did in the KC regular season matchup) then maybe they can do enough to support a high scoring O and get us on a run through the playoffs. This roster is clearly, to my mind, less talented than the 2020, 2021 and 2022 rosters... but maybe with Josh at his best, with the D doing just enough to hang on and find some splash plays from Groot, Epenesa, Oliver (who has played 3 excellent games back to back after a below par season) and whatever is left in Von's tank and the bit of luck here and there every Superbowl team needs the Bills can make a run. Here's hoping. But the likelihood that any route means going through Baltimore and Kansas City means it is going to be tough. 

You're right...we don't have a defensive unit good enough to get off the field. The 3rd down % is the most important indicator.  A 44% 3rd down rate is not getting you to a SB ever.  And after we get bounced from the playoffs for the 7th time in the McDermott era, will he be willing to acknowledge maybe his D style doesn't work anymore??

[ProcessTruster]

1 hour ago, Buffalo03 said:

I've said a million times. Don't fire McDermott until he loses the locker room. You don't want players playing for a new HC they don't like, don't respect and don't wanna play for. People can't grasp this

plus you are starting over with an entirely new staff, new schemes and new players to fit those schemes. 

 

When you're 7 beers in, hard to think about that I guess.  

[jaybeezee]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

This kinda describes my thoughts as well. Let me say I like McDermott. Think he's a heck of a coach and leader.

 

But should it come to pass we get bounced at home in a third straight postseason as the 2 seed...his seat needs to be really hot going into next year at minimum. Even by his own standards, the "growth mindset" he would be failing. 

I like the coach as far as a person and what he was able to accomplish with the team for several years, but I can see that he will not take us to the next level. I know for certain that some of his past and present Vets know it too. They are just between a rock and a hard place because they like him so much, but many know his style of defense will not get it done when it matters most. We are wasting many of our good players prime years, most importantly JOSH's.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

8 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Why do we have to have this conversation every year. 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023.....it's pointless now. Sean has become an urban legend to a large contingent of Bills fans.  He can do no wrong.  Winning a SB or even getting to one is far less important than the beauty of him digging us out of 17 years of despair. 

 

 

5 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I agree with Cowherd and he'd be on the hot seat if I was the owner.  I just don't see Pegula firing him after this year though unless the request comes from Josh Allen.  We're talking about a guy that can't even find an NHL head coach to make the playoffs in the 13 years he's been their owner. 

And if they were both fired there would be at least three to five teams that would hire them right away as a package deal.

 

I think a fair approach is to balance McDermott's future with the team with Josh Allen's remaining runway as QB. 

 

Team is the #2 seed, the Bills have the two best wins of the regular season (ended Chiefs undefeated year, at Detroit), are scoring 31.8 points per game, and are at the top of the league in turnover differential. 

 

At the end of 2025, McDermott will have been here 9-years, Allen will have been here 8-years. Allen will be 29 years old. That's roughly 1/2 of Allen's career and clearly a good chunk of Allen's prime. 

 

If the Bills haven't appeared in a Super Bowl by the time Allen is 29/30 you can feel confident that you've given Sean every resource required to win. 

 

Edited December 30, 2024 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Beck Water]

21 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

So that's where we're permanently stuck. Terry will never fire McD. Josh is so great we're guaranteed 10+ wins every year and playoffs.  Nothing beyond that. That's basically our future.  Take it or leave. And as several fans have told me, we can do nothing about it.  I guess the passion to chase a championship isn't as strong in Buffalo as it is in other organizations.  

 

I think, with all respect, that you're getting things mixed here.  
 

First of all, Nothing is Guaranteed.  It's not just Josh, despite what people say.  The D is leading the league in turnovers; even with the debacles in LA and Detroit giving up 44 and 42 points, the Bills D is still a top 10 D on points.

But that's kind of a nit.  The Big Point is that there are different ways to "chase a championship".  One philosophy is "you find good people, growth-minded people, put them in charge, and let them figure it out".  That's the philosophy of teams like the Steelers who have long tenured coaches like Noll, Cowher, and Tomlin.

 

Another philosophy is that you move on promptly when you aren't getting the results you want.  That's the philosophy of teams like Denver.  Fox took them to the Superbowl, lost, 12-4 the next year but lost in the division round, it was "Off with His Head" and move on to Kubiak.  Superbowl!  But then when they missed the playoffs the following year with Brock Osweiler and Trevor Siemian at QB, it was "Off with His Head" and on to a carousel of Joseph, Fangio, Hackett, and now Payton, 8 straight years of missing the playoffs with a realistic chance they make it 9. 

There are also teams that have looked promising, changed coaches, and spluttered.  Frankly I think if the Giants had stuck with Pat Shurmur after 2019 instead of "chasing a championship" with Joe Judge and Brian Daboll, they might well have been better off.

 

Please don't shove a bunch of straw people at me and say I'm claiming we shouldn't move on from McDermott.  I'm simply making the point that it's hyperbole on your point to link "change in head coach" to "championship" and "stay the course" to "lack of passion for championship".

 

I'm saying there are different strategies on that point, and it's not clear cut that one is a sure path to success.

[RunTheBall]

This whole conversation is kind of funny because Terry put McD in his will and made him executor of his estate. He’s going nowhere anytime soon.

[FireChans]

24 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

plus you are starting over with an entirely new staff, new schemes and new players to fit those schemes. 

 

When you're 7 beers in, hard to think about that I guess.  

Are we pretending like teams don't change coaching staffs and win the SB relatively quickly?

[MikePJ76]

I feel like upgrading the personnel in the front 7 on defense is what is needed.  Not firing the coach.

 

The last two seasons and offseasons have shown the Bills coaching staff and front office have a plan and can execute it.

 

The issue will become, How much longer can Allen play at this level?  Do you pay cook?  How many years does dawkins have left? etc.

 

They have to commit to getting bigger and better on defense the way they did over the last two offseasons on offense.

 

We are lucky to have McDermott and Beane.  Just look around the league most organizations are a mess.  The coaches available to hire are pretty average and if McDermott was available he would be the number 1 guy.

 

 

[chris heff]

5 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

I feel like upgrading the personnel in the front 7 on defense is what is needed.  Not firing the coach.

 

The last two seasons and offseasons have shown the Bills coaching staff and front office have a plan and can execute it.

 

The issue will become, How much longer can Allen play at this level?  Do you pay cook?  How many years does dawkins have left? etc.

 

They have to commit to getting bigger and better on defense the way they did over the last two offseasons on offense.

 

We are lucky to have McDermott and Beane.  Just look around the league most organizations are a mess.  The coaches available to hire are pretty average and if McDermott was available he would be the number 1 guy.

 

 

This! 
 

I hated the coaching carousel years.

 

And didn’t Andy Reid spend 13 years as head coach of the Eagles and never win a Superbowl? And yeah I know they went to one.

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, chris heff said:

And didn’t Andy Reid spend 13 years as head coach of the Eagles and never win a Superbowl?

Correct. They fired him and won one before he did.

[GunnerBill]

40 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

You're right...we don't have a defensive unit good enough to get off the field. The 3rd down % is the most important indicator.  A 44% 3rd down rate is not getting you to a SB ever.  And after we get bounced from the playoffs for the 7th time in the McDermott era, will he be willing to acknowledge maybe his D style doesn't work anymore??

 

I am not sure that is my conclusion. I'm really not. I don't think the underlying scheme and approach are the problem. I don't think it is being coached well enough, called well enough or executed well enough this year. I disagree with you on how talented the defense is. I think we have some spots where we are good enough and others where we are not.

[MikePJ76]

Just now, chris heff said:

This! 
 

I hated the coaching carousel years.

 

And didn’t Andy Reid spend 13 years as head coach of the Eagles and never win a Superbowl? And yeah I know they went to one.

Yep. He was a punching bag in Philly after the 05 season.  Losing 3 straight nfc championships, having poor wr and never running the ball, screwing up time issues etc.  Then losing the super bowl and releasing Owens.   

 

On top of that he was extremely lucky in a few of those playoff games, that 4th and 26 vs GB in 03 was a ridiculous mistake by the packers.  

 

Lots of great teams and coaches get stuck and can not get over the hump.  Very few have in the history of the league.  The Colts actually winning a super bowl to me is still a bit of a surprise.  That team always felt small and finesse.  The Pats being worn out finally and playing them at home is what they needed.  Plus a pretty average bears team in the superbowl helped.

[Big Turk]

Rex Ryan says without a doubt Allen is MVP.  Orlovsky(who has a vote) agrees with him and so does Greeny.

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not sure that is my conclusion. I'm really not. I don't think the underlying scheme and approach are the problem. I don't think it is being coached well enough, called well enough or executed well enough this year. I disagree with you on how talented the defense is. I think we have some spots where we are good enough and others where we are not.

I never said the defense was talented?