Random talking head says something about the Bills

[H2o]

At some point, enough has to be enough. A WC loss to anyone should be completely unacceptable. We have the best player in the NFL. In the biggest moments, it is usually the defense and the coaching that has failed him. Diggs and Bass had a hand in last year's debacle. He (JA) has had one bad game in the Playoffs, the divisional against Cincy. Other than that, he's always had us in position to win. You see McDermott in the regular season getting outcoached as well. Some bad challenges, some non-challenges, poor clock management, and some questionable game plans. He is the leader. He has to bring the entire thing together. Do I think Pegula will let him go? Probably not, no matter how the Playoffs pan out. So, knowing this, I just hope that JA17 puts on his cape and refuses to leave the outcomes in anyone else's hands. 

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

If you want to go by wins and points, sure, we look really good, now and this year as whole. If you want a more nuanced conversation we have benefited a massive amount from turnovers, been overwhelmed at times defensively, and have been fairly dependent on Allen going off schedule for extended periods. 
 

I wonder if the turnovers will extend against teams that are much better with the football? If not, what happens? So many games have swung on turnovers. Turnovers have saved this defense over and over this year. I’m certainly not downplaying that they generated these mistakes themselves, but again, what does it look like if they can’t or worse, we end up -1 or -2 in a game? 

 

We basically have our two statement wins, one vs KC which we have seen before and one against a Detroit team that is as injured as any in football. Impressive wins, sure, but alot of people here have taken those wins along with our record and said this team is + vs years past. Perhaps offensively they’re, but everything else is worse than years past. I also expect playoff level defenses to force Allen into more structure which will put pressure on Brady to scheme our guys open and call elite games.
 

I’m confident we can put up some good results, but not historic levels, which is what I think it will take for us offensively to overcome other shortcomings. If we get stagnant even for a couple quarters it could be enough to send us home. Just no margin for error with this defense. 
 

To be perfectly honest this team appears to me like some serious fools gold. Even worse than years past. I know, I suck, bla bla

 

So should McD go if they show themselves to be what I just said? I thought he should go prior. Still think he should go but I don’t expect that. I don’t think we will play the Bengals. If we do it becomes more plausible as a first round loss to them would be a pretty big black mark but it wouldn’t be enough this year in my opinion. 

 

I'm not commenting on the McDermott piece, we have exchanged views on that. Neither is changing the other's mind based on re-hashing the past. Minds will only be changed, in either direction, based on what happens in the future. 

 

But I did want to comment on the where is this time and how should we honest assess it. I'm not sure I'd describe them as fool's gold. I think they are legitimately a 13-3 football team. I actually think in respect of the two "statement" wins as you call them, neither of those games were as close as the scoreboard made them look. The Bills were the better team in both contests and deservedly won the games. They outcoached and outexecuted their opponents on the two biggest stages of their season. 

 

That said, what I think you were getting at - which is reasons to be concerned going into the playoffs - I think there is a big one that is more acute than in previous years and that is the defense is not very good. The defense hasn't played well enough in recent playoff exits - that is true - but those defenses have been good defenses that for whatever reasons be it coaching, execution, injuries, or being put in bad spots by the offense on occasion have not lived up to that billing in the post season. This feels different. This is a poor defense right now. The Bills are 21st in yards allowed. That would be their worst output since 2017 when McDermott and Frazier were trying to run their defense largely with players acquired for a totally different scheme. But I think even that is a slight sugar coating. I have long since believed 3rd down % is where you truly judge how good a defense is. Yards and points to an extent can be influenced by other things - the 2018 Bills finished 2nd in yards allowed and while that D was a decent defense its yardage totals were helped by the offense turning it over so much, hard to give up 70 yard drives when the O turns it over inside its own territory a ton - special teams and offense factor in. 3rd down is just a referendum on the defense - the Bills were 19th last year but in the Frazier era were consistently top 10. The Bills went into yesterday 31st in the NFL at 44.4% given up and yesterday gave up 4 of 9 for, you guessed it 44.4%. I just don't know how you hope to improve that in the playoffs. Maybe there is a magic formula somewhere that Babich has been hiding all year but they look so non-fundamentally sound to me compared to the Bills defense that we have been used to seeing.

 

The argument goes, from some, the Bills D has always been one that can be got by really talented offenses executing at a high level (I mean so can ANY defense to an extent, that is the NFL) but at the moment it doesn't require that. They are dropping more underneath coverages than I have ever seen, they have two defenders guarding the same guy while someone else is open more than I have seen they just look uncoordinated. I don't know whether that is a result of the injuries this year where guys have been in and out of the lineup - particularly in the back seven - and if that has affected continuity or if it is just talent (Milan declining - though he played his best game yesterday, Bernard regressing a bit from last year, Rapp and Hamlin just not being the level of the players they replaced, Douglas coming back to earth which was always likely) or whether it is a result of the coaching changes (it isn't just Babich taking over as DC but Marcus West was promoted to his first DL coach job in the pros, their corners coach is in his first gig in the pros and Al Holcombe was here last year but is in his first year taking over from Babich as linebackers coach that is a lot of churn and a fair amount of experience leaving the building in Eric Washington and Joh Butler). It's probably a combination of all three but it is definitely concerning. There will be those who say "McDermott is supposed to be a defensive guru he should just sort it out." And sure, he is. But the life of an NFL Head Coach there is just not enough time to be that hands on in preparing the defense. Even last year when Washington and Holcomb were handling some of that but McDermott was calling the plays I thought it affected his overally capacity to lead the team effectively. There just isn't time mid season for a Head Coach to spend the level of time fixing the unit. That isn't to absolve McDermott of accountability for what we are seeing. He is the Head Coach and when a  unit is failing on offense, or defense, it is on him ultimately. He hired Babich as a first time DC and then lost his two most experienced position coaches and replaced them with rookies. To the extent that the coaching churn has impacted defensive performance that is on McDermott. To the extent some of it is personnel related that is on Beane (I have been saying for years don't let Poyer and Hyde walk at the same time for instance, good roster management would have been staggering their departures and for about the 4th year running he has had to turn to vets off the street mid season to patch up his botched offseason work on the dline). 

 

How have they kept their head above water? As you say, its turnovers. How sustainable is that is a fair question. After yesterday we are at 16 interceptions and that is about standard for this team. They have had between 15 and 19 every year since 2020. Their scheme with enough disguise and baiting/inviting enough throws into zones between defenders pretty consistently generates that. I don't think there is a ton of randomness about it. Where we are a bit up on the average this year is fumbles forced and recovered. We are at 15. Our previous high is 12. That is the turnover type where there is most inherent randomness anyway - it's a funny shaped ball that does not bounce predictably and where it goes when it's on the floor is often down to luck. I do think I have seen the Bills defenders raking at the ball as a point of emphasis this year more than I can ever remember - so I give the coaches some credit for that - but it is a slight reason for concern that one of the areas we are overperforming in keeping our heads above water is the one with the most inherent randomness and therefore, it is safe to assume, the least sustainability. FWIW in the playoffs they have generated turnovers. They have 9 turnovers in 9 playoff games since the 2020 post-season. Though fair to point out of the 3 playoff games where they have failed to generate one two were ultimately elimination games: 13 seconds and the Cincy loss. I think the part that has not got enough focus in terms of helping the defense stay above water is how well the offense has avoided turnovers. Through 16 games the Bills have only 8 giveaways. You have to go back to the 2019 Saints for the last time that was the case. Had the offense put them in bad spots - like it did a lot last year - it might be safe to assume the D's numbers would look even worse. In previous years people have said they'd trade the defense giving up more yards for a few more splash plays to take the ball away, get teams off the field. I think that is kind of what this D is right now (even in the first half yesterday it didn't play well but Groot/Phillips and then Epenesa made big splash plays at critical moments) not necessarily by design but by necessity. 

 

So how is a team with what I think we have established is a legitimately bad defense (compared to their own standards in previous regular seasons) legitimately 13-3? It is because the offense has played really well. Franchise records in points scored and touchdowns scored. That's incredible. That said one of the three losses - Houston - was unquestionably on the offense. But essentially it comes down to the fact Joe Brady has done a great job and Josh Allen is playing the best ball of his career. He is almost certainly the MVP. I do give McDermott and Beane some credit there - McDermott's decision to fire Dorsey when he did and bring a lot of spotlight on himself was a courageous one, but a right one and Brady has been a slam dunk hire. Beane's decision to take what had been a decent oline last year, pay Spencer Brown after basically one decent year, move on from Morse and keep Edwards, moving McGovern to center was questioned by a lot of fans but he got that spot on as a personnel calculation. Given a clever coordinator and the best line he has had in his career, Josh Allen has been the best Quarterback in football, even without stellar receiving talent around him. The record you want to watch the Bills go for next week is the 14th guy to have a receiving touchdown. This is the second time they have tied the NFL record of 13 players - 2020 was the other and they tried to feed Taiwan Jones an endzone catch in the final week of the season to break it. If Mitch plays at least most of the New England game watch for Davidson, Hamler, or Virgil being elevated from the PS and getting looks to score. 

 

I know that is a long post - quiet work day between xmas and new year - but here is the conclusion on where to my mind it leaves us going into the post-season I think compared to this time last year I have more confidence in the offense, and less confidence in the defense.  But by the time we got to that KC game last year any confidence in the defense was evaporated by the injuries. If this D can stay healthy and somehow play its best game (which they pretty much did in the KC regular season matchup) then maybe they can do enough to support a high scoring O and get us on a run through the playoffs. This roster is clearly, to my mind, less talented than the 2020, 2021 and 2022 rosters... but maybe with Josh at his best, with the D doing just enough to hang on and find some splash plays from Groot, Epenesa, Oliver (who has played 3 excellent games back to back after a below par season) and whatever is left in Von's tank and the bit of luck here and there every Superbowl team needs the Bills can make a run. Here's hoping. But the likelihood that any route means going through Baltimore and Kansas City means it is going to be tough. 

Edited December 30, 2024 by GunnerBill

[Chaos]

Manner of exit would seem to manner.  A game where the team seems woefully unprepared and the opponent wins by putting up 40 should raise serious questions.   A hard fought game where the Bills have a four point lead with two minutes to go and the game is lost to to amateurish clock management issues should raise serious questions 

 

the eventual winner might matter too. Seeing Zach Taylor Sean McVay or NIck Siriani win a second superbowl won’t be good. Broncos Chargers Commanders Vikings or Lions winning undercuts the narrative “how can anyone expect to find a Super Bowl winning coach”

 

The only losing outcomes to support the narratives to keep McDermott as the best possible option are Reid Tomlin or John Harbaugh winning.  The sad part about that would be excepting we are in the second tier of AFC teams despite having Josh Allen. 

[GunnerBill]

35 minutes ago, H2o said:

At some point, enough has to be enough. A WC loss to anyone should be completely unacceptable. We have the best player in the NFL. In the biggest moments, it is usually the defense and the coaching that has failed him. Diggs and Bass had a hand in last year's debacle. He (JA) has had one bad game in the Playoffs, the divisional against Cincy. Other than that, he's always had us in position to win. You see McDermott in the regular season getting outcoached as well. Some bad challenges, some non-challenges, poor clock management, and some questionable game plans. He is the leader. He has to bring the entire thing together. Do I think Pegula will let him go? Probably not, no matter how the Playoffs pan out. So, knowing this, I just hope that JA17 puts on his cape and refuses to leave the outcomes in anyone else's hands. 

 

It's two. The AFC Championship game too. Josh wasn't dreadful that day, I wouldn't call it a bad game as such, he was okay but he was clearly out-Quarterbacked by Mahomes so I also don't think you can say he had us in a position to win. The other two defeats to Kansas City, absolutely he has and he hasn't had enough help around him - from defense, skill players and coaching. 

[Buffalo03]

4 hours ago, ganesh said:

But would Pegula insist on him bringing a DC with a better scheme....Would Schwartz come here as DC ?  

 

I don't know if yesterday's defensive performance was because we played well or if the Jets offense sucked ?

Outside of the Rams and Lions games, how bad was our defense? The Lions have been throwing points up on everyone and for almost 3 quarters, we held them to 14 points. We were not keeping the Lions below 35 in my opinion and we were out some players. Let's see what happens when all our players are healthy and we get teams at our place at home. 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

4 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

The Jets were a complete train wreck. They committed 16 penalties.  Yet there were able to move the ball down the field at will until they turned it over with their 42 year old qb.  When we get to the playoffs we're going to face better offenses and superior coaching. Maybe Josh can go shock & awe and outscore everyone?  But mark my words there will come a moment when we need a huge defensive stop or an incredible call by McD.  I hope this time it happens....

AND scored ZERO points through 3 quarters. all the while the great aaron looked like 💩. taking sacks and a safety. that's on the DEFENSE!!

 

 

ZERO!!!

Edited December 30, 2024 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[Mr. WEO]

nah, McD is Pegula's Tomlin.  

[extrahammer]

6 hours ago, Malazan said:

I believe listening to colin cowherd makes me dumber.

 

I worked with his co-host once and he hated me bc this girl he brought to a work event once kept flirting with me. He also was a Josh hater until a few weeks ago. He's a former Eagles scout, I think he even worked with Sean. 

[thenorthremembers]

If the Bills lose in the playoffs both the fans and the media will crucify McDermott.   He isnt losing his job over it.

[ganesh]

3 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

Bills fans will not decide the fate of McDermott. That decision lies with Terry Pegula. Yes, the conversation is somewhat pointless for that reason. 

Of course everyone knows that...The point of a message board is for fans to share their opinions and discuss the good, bad, ugly of it.   Otherwise, what is the point?

[<bills4life>]

6 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:

That’s sad to think McD gets a free pass regardless of outcome. Sure hope Josh is playing in that stadium no matter what happens too

Unreal isn’t it. Denver comes in scores on last drive because our defense can’t stop them and a bone headed McDermott play call or timeout and we lose. But hey it’s all good. We had a great season.  Regular season champs again. 

[<bills4life>]

5 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

So you're perfectly satisfied with Sean?  His playoff defenses have been spectacular.  His in game management without a question is Belichickian.  He's safe for the next several years because Terry promised him perpetual job security. Super Bowls are over-rated anyway. It's all about the regular season bling.  

Love the sarcasm. And for all the eyerolls, sometimes the truth hurts. Anyone who refuses to acknowledge these shortcomings is not being honest with themselves. 

[Gregg]

5 minutes ago, &lt;bills4life&gt; said:

Unreal isn’t it. Denver comes in scores on last drive because our defense can’t stop them and a bone headed McDermott play call or timeout and we lose. But hey it’s all good. We had a great season.  Regular season champs again. 

 

They lose on WC weekend then the pitchforks and knives will be out in full force to replace Sean from Bills Mafia. But the only opinion that matters is Terry's, and he likes Sean as his HC.

[<bills4life>]

13 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

They lose on WC weekend then the pitchforks and knives will be out in full force to replace Sean from Bills Mafia. But the only opinion that matters is Terry's, and he likes Sean as his HC.

Well hopefully it won’t come to that.  It would be amazing to see the bills and McDermott smoke everyone on the way to a Super Bowl victory.  I just can’t shake some of McDermotts blunders in a winner take all scenario playoff game with time running out. 

Edited December 30, 2024 by <bills4life>

[The Firebaugh Kid]

I think he has to show improvement. Whatever that means….it all depends on the circumstances of how they lose (if they were to lose), and when. 
I think you’ve gotta get past the divisional. This team has only been to one AFC championship game and that was when we clearly were not ready for it in 2020-2021. 

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, &lt;bills4life&gt; said:

Love the sarcasm. And for all the eyerolls, sometimes the truth hurts. Anyone who refuses to acknowledge these shortcomings is not being honest with themselves. 

 

I eyerolled the post you are quoting because the guy he was responding to wasn't saying they were perfectly satisfied with Sean or even that they wanted Sean to stay. They might do, I don't know, but that was not what they were saying. They were just saying he is nowhere no matter what happens in these playoffs. So it did not justify the response it got. 

[<bills4life>]

1 minute ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

I think he has to show improvement. Whatever that means….it all depends on the circumstances of how they lose (if they were to lose), and when. 
I think you’ve gotta get past the divisional. This team has only been to one AFC championship game and that was when we clearly were not ready for it in 2020-2021. 

That is a fair and accurate assessment. 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

I think he has to show improvement. Whatever that means….it all depends on the circumstances of how they lose (if they were to lose), and when. 
I think you’ve gotta get past the divisional. This team has only been to one AFC championship game and that was when we clearly were not ready for it in 2020-2021. 

 

Has to in what sense? To limit the criticism? For you personally to be satisfied? Or to keep his job? 

[<bills4life>]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I eyerolled the post you are quoting because the guy he was responding to wasn't saying they were perfectly satisfied with Sean or even that they wanted Sean to stay. They might do, I don't know, but that was not what they were saying. They were just saying he is nowhere no matter what happens in these playoffs. So it did not justify the response it got. 

You don’t have to explain yourself to me.  It’s all good. I wasn’t referring to you anyways. 😂 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Has to in what sense? To limit the criticism? For you personally to be satisfied? Or to keep his job? 

Just to quiet the witch hunt and eliminate the conversations. If there's some type of terrible blunder/mismanagement of the clock, I could see a world where he gets canned, sadly. I love McD and everything he stands for, for the record.