Top 5 Garbage Statistics in the NFL

[Saxum]

https://thehellgoingon.blog/top-5-garbage-statistics-in-the-nfl/

5. QB wins and QB Super Bowl wins

• This is one of those statistics that needs a major sample size to be meaningful, and even then it’s dubious. Are Tom Brady’s 7 Super Bowl rings indicative of his career greatness? Absolutely. At some point, you just can’t ignore it. But would he be any less great if Adam Vinatieri had missed the game-winning field goals in Brady’s first 2 wins, or if the Eagles got the onside kick and went down and scored in Brady’s 3rd win? Brady was watching powerless from the sidelines when those things happened, and they could’ve easily gone differently.  (And do not forget the games won due to cheating and 'just give it to them'.)

4. Tackles

• Second on both the solo and combined all-time lists is London Fletcher, who was impressive for 16 years, but not good enough for the Hall of Fame (yet). In fact, only 5 of the top 20 in all-time combined tackles is in the Hall (could reach 7 with Bobby Wagner and Lavonte David still active).

3. Turnover Ratio

• Turnovers are game-changing plays that, more often than not, come down to luck. In fact, a Harvard study on NFL turnover margin found that turnovers as a whole are roughly 55% luck (tipped pass, fumble bounce, etc.) and 45% talent (cautious QB, strip sack, etc.). Any stat you that can be drastically altered by unlucky bounces shouldn’t be relied on to suggest a team is somehow better or worse at creating and preventing turnovers.

2. 4th quarter comebacks

• I can’t even fully get into how much I can’t stand how this stat is recorded. You can literally take the lead halfway through the 4th quarter and flub the rest of the game, but if your defense holds the other team’s offense, you notch a 4th Quarter Comeback. Or you can lead a game-winning drive and leave 13 seconds left on the clock and watch your defense let the other team drive down and get a field goal. In 13 seconds.

1. Practice interceptions (and touchdowns)

• What we’ve reached is what I call a Clickbait Loop. Some hypothetical reporter somewhere counted how many interceptions a QB threw during practice and wrote a throwaway article about it, knowing it was meaningless. That article got picked up by fans desperately hoping said QB will fail in the upcoming season, so they blew it up like it was a super big deal. The reporter knows it’s a garbage statistic and the fans know it’s a garbage statistic, but they can’t stop feeding each other. Eventually, fans start thinking it actually is a big deal because all these other people are talking about it, and any blogger like me sees a keyword term like practice interceptions as an uncommon topic where we can rank higher. Sheer volume of content eventually convinces everyone that something is important.

 

 

 

 

 

[GoBills808]

Honorable mention to passer rating and PFF player grades

[nucci]

Air yards and most stats that deal with analytics that don't affect the game

[C.Biscuit97]

11 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

https://thehellgoingon.blog/top-5-garbage-statistics-in-the-nfl/

5. QB wins and QB Super Bowl wins

• This is one of those statistics that needs a major sample size to be meaningful, and even then it’s dubious. Are Tom Brady’s 7 Super Bowl rings indicative of his career greatness? Absolutely. At some point, you just can’t ignore it. But would he be any less great if Adam Vinatieri had missed the game-winning field goals in Brady’s first 2 wins, or if the Eagles got the onside kick and went down and scored in Brady’s 3rd win? Brady was watching powerless from the sidelines when those things happened, and they could’ve easily gone differently.  (And do not forget the games won due to cheating and 'just give it to them'.)

4. Tackles

• Second on both the solo and combined all-time lists is London Fletcher, who was impressive for 16 years, but not good enough for the Hall of Fame (yet). In fact, only 5 of the top 20 in all-time combined tackles is in the Hall (could reach 7 with Bobby Wagner and Lavonte David still active).

3. Turnover Ratio

• Turnovers are game-changing plays that, more often than not, come down to luck. In fact, a Harvard study on NFL turnover margin found that turnovers as a whole are roughly 55% luck (tipped pass, fumble bounce, etc.) and 45% talent (cautious QB, strip sack, etc.). Any stat you that can be drastically altered by unlucky bounces shouldn’t be relied on to suggest a team is somehow better or worse at creating and preventing turnovers.

2. 4th quarter comebacks

• I can’t even fully get into how much I can’t stand how this stat is recorded. You can literally take the lead halfway through the 4th quarter and flub the rest of the game, but if your defense holds the other team’s offense, you notch a 4th Quarter Comeback. Or you can lead a game-winning drive and leave 13 seconds left on the clock and watch your defense let the other team drive down and get a field goal. In 13 seconds.

1. Practice interceptions (and touchdowns)

• What we’ve reached is what I call a Clickbait Loop. Some hypothetical reporter somewhere counted how many interceptions a QB threw during practice and wrote a throwaway article about it, knowing it was meaningless. That article got picked up by fans desperately hoping said QB will fail in the upcoming season, so they blew it up like it was a super big deal. The reporter knows it’s a garbage statistic and the fans know it’s a garbage statistic, but they can’t stop feeding each other. Eventually, fans start thinking it actually is a big deal because all these other people are talking about it, and any blogger like me sees a keyword term like practice interceptions as an uncommon topic where we can rank higher. Sheer volume of content eventually convinces everyone that something is important.

 

 

 

 

 

Or training camp interceptions!!! Some of the all time worst takes in this gem;

also, completion % over 60% is pretty worthless. YPA is much more telling. 

[US Egg]

Speaking of NFL garbage stats:

The typical NFL game generates about 35 tons of waste, and that can balloon by up to 50% for the Super Bowl, the director of the NFL Environmental Program told Front Office Sports.

 

[boyst]

OL pass/win rate and grading systems.

 

we don't know their blocking assignments to judge these accurately.

[Saxum]

11 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Honorable mention to passer rating and PFF player grades

 

Nothing honorable to PFF player grades.

 

[hondo in seattle]

I read somewhere that defensive interceptions vary widely from year.

 

Yards-allowed,  on the other hand, has some consistency.  The best teams last year will mostly be the best teams this year unless there's been a big coaching change.

But a team that had a lot of INTs last year will not be likely to repeat that performance this year even if the players and coaches remain.  A lot of interceptions are luck.  

[The Jokeman]

Competition percentage, it doesn't truly measure accuracy as every passing offense is different and some inflate this number since they have the QB dumping off passes to RBs 4-8 times a game.

[MJS]

Well, I disagree. All stats have meaning and all of them work together to paint a picture of a player, a team, etc.

 

Yeah, you don't want to take one stat and make it mean more than it does. But when you take a bunch of stats together and they are all pointing to the same thing (that a player is good, bad, or anything in between), clearly they all have meaning.

 

And that includes QB wins and superbowls. This doesn't mean anything for any other position, but it does for QB's, because they actually have a real impact on wins and losses. It is a team sport, but the QB is by far the most important position and the most impactful to wins and losses.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Anyone disappointed there are no stats about NFL stadiums and trash output?

 

One gripe I have is calling a tipped pass luck. 

[Captain_Quint]

Top 3:

1) arm length

2) hand size

3) wonderlic score

 

[Mojo44]

Sacks allowed!!

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Fumbles Lost /Recovered is pretty random year to year. Lotsa luck there, ball has points on the end too!

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

I still don't understand why nobody uses points scored per drive as a way of assessing an offense's production. 

[hondo in seattle]

56 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

Anyone disappointed there are no stats about NFL stadiums and trash output?

 

One gripe I have is calling a tipped pass luck. 

 

It's not.   A pass is tipped when a defender does something good and the QB does something bad.

 

But what happens afterward sometimes is a matter of luck.  Without the defender intending it, the tipped pass might go into a fellow defender's arms for a pick 6.  Then again, it might have been an inaccurate throw but the DB's tip knocked it to a receiver who took it for a TD.  

 

While both examples are clearly still in the realm of cause-and-effects, I'd classify both as luck because skill and intention didn't produce the result.  

 

Anyway, that's how I see it.  

 

[K-9]

I’d be interested in the statistics for the top five garbages in the NFL. If I had to guess they would be:

 

Plastic cups

Paper cups

Peanut shells

Paper wrappers

Popcorn containers

[mrags]

I think the biggest overrated stat of all is how many M&Ms @Gugnycan fit into his mouth. Last year at one of the tailgates he tried to impress me, or hit on me I’m not sure. He was able to fit  94 peanut M&Ms into his mouth. 

[DrBob806]

The NFL defensive rankings are kind of silly to me. It's based off of yards surrendered.

 

I think it should be points allowed. 

[Goin Breakdown]

Not all. Incomplete passes should be placed on the Qb state sheet