Beane's drafting record...new data

[Matt_In_NH]

On 9/7/2023 at 12:23 PM, DrDawkinstein said:

No. Ultimately it's on Josh. I'm saying that I believe a lot of Josh's anxiety that caused the fumble was due to knowing his IOL was getting blown off the ball all day (all season), and that he'd have to get out quick.

So its on Josh but it's not on Josh at the same time!

[Matt_In_NH]

On 9/7/2023 at 6:43 PM, PBF81 said:

My position is two-fold;  

 

A.  Put Allen on that team and Marrone does at least what McD's done here, and is more successful in the playoffs.  

 

B.  Put Marrone as the coach of our current team during McD's tenure, and he also doesn't do any worse than McD's done.  

Doug Marrone has a coaching record of 38-60.  McDermott s 66-40.  I get it McDermott has Josh Allen but this is just troll nonsense.  Maybe you believe it but there is not much evidence you are right.  You think McDermott is not at least partially responsible for the development of Josh Allen?  He helped put other coaches and players around him to develop him, he changed the culture of a football organization that was in the toilet leading up to and including Marrone's years.  Marrone quit on the team also.    I am critical of the staff at times but you are not giving credit where credit is due.  

[PBF81]

44 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I have said it multiple times. I repeat it now. Quarterback play in the NFL is the single biggest determinative factor in wins and losses. Josh Allen is the single biggest reason that this team is reigning 3 time division champion. That has never been questioned by me in anything I have said.

 

To what extent?   That's where you haven't provided an inkling of a clue.  

 

i.e., how many games per average on a season do we win because he is our QB, and apart from coaching?  
 

I'll provide a perspective from which to operate.  Once Brady hit his stride in NE, his third season let's say, which is fair, Belichick's Pats have averaged 12.5 wins/season, and that includes Brady playing into his 40s there.  Since that time Belichick with a relatively average QB and Newton, and one that arguably has been better than most that we've had during our drought era, has average over 4 wins/season fewer in three seasons.  

 

I've always said that a very good coach will regularly get 8-10 wins with an average or perhaps even slightely below-average QB.  That's my opinion to be fair, but it is based upon factual data.  

 

 

39 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Doug Marrone has a coaching record of 38-60.  McDermott s 66-40.  I get it McDermott has Josh Allen but this is just troll nonsense.  Maybe you believe it but there is not much evidence you are right.  You think McDermott is not at least partially responsible for the development of Josh Allen?  He helped put other coaches and players around him to develop him, he changed the culture of a football organization that was in the toilet leading up to and including Marrone's years.  Marrone quit on the team also.    I am critical of the staff at times but you are not giving credit where credit is due.  

 

Get the context before chiming in please.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

To what extent?   That's where you haven't provided an inkling of a clue.  

 

 

I don't know that it is quantifiable. I honestly don't. But broadly I'd say about 50% QB, 25% rest of roster talent, 25% coaching. 

 

So I'd say it has double the impact of the other two factors.

[1onemangang7]

On 9/6/2023 at 1:15 PM, eball said:

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

it' neither good or not good.  For example it's good that he brought in a guy to play behind Josh Allen at rb, it's not good that it isnt someone elses starting rb.  

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't know that it is quantifiable. I honestly don't. But broadly I'd say about 50% QB, 25% rest of roster talent, 25% coaching. 

 

So I'd say it has double the impact of the other two factors.

 

Sorry, that doesn't answer the question as to what kind of an impact Allen makes in the W/L column.  Try again.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

Sorry, that doesn't answer the question as to what kind of an impact Allen makes in the W/L column.  Try again.  

 

 

 

I have given you an answer elsewhere but this isn't based on anything. It is gut feeling. 

 

Your argument, I think, Tom Brady (the GOAT) is worth what 4 (I think it was actually 5 if I remember) wins more than Cam Newton the following year when Cam was the worst starter in the league. Yep. I'm somewhat surprised the gap wasn't bigger. It should have been. Getting 7 wins out of that New England team in 2020 was a hell of a job. I know you were averaging and they won 10 with Mac. And that kinda proves the point, right? It depends what the baseline is. 

 

If you are comparing an elite QB against a terrible one (which Cam was that year in NE he was totally washed and which Kyle Allen is) the gap might be as big as 6 games. If you are comparing an elite QB to a middling starter it might be 4 games. If you are comparing to a good starter it might be a couple of games. 

 

EDIT: also worth saying the talent on those New England rosters since Brady has been pretty ropey. It wasn't great Tom's last year in fairness but then after he left Collins and Van Noy left, Hightower and Chung opted out, Edelman and Gilmore got hurt. That is why isolating single factors in a scientific way is never possible. All you can do is have a rough guess because no two rosters ever do stay the same year to year except for one piece. 

Edited September 9, 2023 by GunnerBill

[DrDawkinstein]

3 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

So its on Josh but it's not on Josh at the same time!

 

That's the beauty of Football!

 

Team sport and no single performance is completely independent.

[BFLO]

22 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have given you an answer elsewhere but this isn't based on anything. It is gut feeling. 

 

Your argument, I think, Tom Brady (the GOAT) is worth what 4 (I think it was actually 5 if I remember) wins more than Cam Newton the following year when Cam was the worst starter in the league. Yep. I'm somewhat surprised the gap wasn't bigger. It should have been. Getting 7 wins out of that New England team in 2020 was a hell of a job. I know you were averaging and they won 10 with Mac. And that kinda proves the point, right? It depends what the baseline is. 

 

If you are comparing an elite QB against a terrible one (which Cam was that year in NE he was totally washed and which Kyle Allen is) the gap might be as big as 6 games. If you are comparing an elite QB to a middling starter it might be 4 games. If you are comparing to a good starter it might be a couple of games. 

 

EDIT: also worth saying the talent on those New England rosters since Brady has been pretty ropey. It wasn't great Tom's last year in fairness but then after he left Collins and Van Noy left, Hightower and Chung opted out, Edelman and Gilmore got hurt. That is why isolating single factors in a scientific way is never possible. All you can do is have a rough guess because no two rosters ever do stay the same year to year except for one piece. 

Don't forget Belichick squeezing 11 wins out of Matt Cassel in between a 16-0 season by Brady and a 10-6 season by Brady.