Beane's drafting record...new data

[HappyDays]

56 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I'd love to see your argument for taking Rousseau and the bums over those Chiefs players.

 

No question that list of Chiefs picks is better (although it's fair to point out that they got two extra early picks by trading Tyreek Hill, which automatically gave them a 50% higher likelihold of finding good players).

 

But I think a better question in this conversation is: do the Bills and Chiefs trade records, playoffs included, over the last two years if those draft classes are swapped? Without hesitation my answer is no. None of those players made a huge difference for the Chiefs - they are all either role players or devalued positions or just pretty good. No stars at premium positions. None of them would have made a difference in any of our games and certainly not our last two playoff losses.

 

So if swapping the draft classes doesn't change our playoff fortunes or theirs, then it is fair to say that the discrepancy between us and the Chiefs is not because of Beane's somewhat lesser drafting in recent years.

 

IMO the discrepancy is mainly because of three major factors, in no particular order of importance:

 

1) They had 1 elite defensive player in each of their last two playoff runs. We had 0 elite defensive players.

2) They had superior coaching on both sides of the ball in the playoffs compared to us.

3) Beane's free agency signings have not been as effective as other contenders. For a $3.7 million cap hit the Chiefs got JuJu Smith-Schuster - an effective WR2 with a 77.2% catch percentage and 933 yards. For a $1.975 million cap hit we got Jamison Crowder - a complete dud. That one example was far and away more impactful to our season vs. theirs last year than all of that draft value discrepancy combined.

 

The conversation around Beane's drafting is a red herring IMO.

 

Edited September 7, 2023 by HappyDays

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

No question that list of Chiefs picks is better (although it's fair to point out that they got two extra early picks by trading Tyreek Hill, which automatically gave them a 50% higher likelihold of finding good players).

 

But I think a better question in this conversation is: do the Bills and Chiefs trade records, playoffs included, over the last two years if those draft classes are swapped? Without hesitation my answer is no. None of those players made a huge difference for the Chiefs - they are all either role players or devalued positions or just pretty good. No stars at premium positions. None of them would have made a difference in any of our games and certainly not our last two playoff losses.

 

So if swapping the draft classes doesn't change our playoff fortunes or theirs, then it is fair to say that the discrepancy between us and the Chiefs is not because of Beane's somewhat lesser drafting in recent years.

 

IMO the discrepancy is mainly because of three major factors, in no particular order of importance:

 

1) They had 1 elite defensive player in each of their last two playoff runs. We had 0 elite defensive players.

2) They had superior coaching on both sides of the ball in the playoffs compared to us.

3) Beane's free agency signings have not been as effective as other contenders. For a $3.7 million cap hit the Chiefs got JuJu Smith-Schuster - an effective WR2 with a 77.2% catch percentage and 933 yards. For a $1.975 million cap hit we got Jamison Crowder - a complete dud. That one example was far and away more impactful to our season vs. theirs last year than all of that draft value discrepancy combined.

 

The conversation around Beane's drafting is a red herring IMO.

 

I actually disagree that the records would not be different. I think that IOL is and has been a major Achilles’ heel on this Bills team since 2020. But I hear what you are saying, the lack of a true defensive superstar has also hurt, a lot. Von’s injury was a major blow. He was also available the year prior via trade in which he remained healthy for the Rams run but hey.

 

I will continue to hammer this point forever, which I think you would agree. The biggest difference between the best season of this era (2020) and every other season is that 2020 had the best overall OL and overall receiving group. The defense wasn’t even that good that season and it was still our best year.

 

Now, do I think we win the Super Bowl if we swap classes? No. Do I think we win the Super Bowl if we sign JuJu instead of Crowder? Also no.

 

But it’s a combination of being second or third best in the conference in FA/draft and other major decisions that, surprise surprise, keep us second or third best in the conference. 

[HappyDays]

22 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I think that IOL is and has been a major Achilles’ heel on this Bills team since 2020.

 

It has, but only at guard. Creed Humphrey has exclusively been a center since his college days. So no I don't think him being here over Basham makes any kind of difference. Similarly I think the Chiefs would have been just as good the past couple years with just a decent center but I know that opinion is not shared by everyone.

 

22 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Do I think we win the Super Bowl if we sign JuJu instead of Crowder?

 

I actually think we would have ended up the #1 seed with JuJu as our WR2 instead of Davis. Having a much more efficient player in that role would have been enough to make a difference in at least one of our losses IMO. The Jets and Dolphins losses in particular featured several negative plays from Davis and those games were decided by just a couple of plays. Flip one of those to a win and we get the #1 seed. The Bengals regular season game wouldn't have even mattered. If we head into the playoffs as the #1 seed that changes everything.

 

So if you want to look at small decisions that had a big impact on the outcome of the season, that one free agency decision was monumentally more important than us failing to draft a great center.

 

Edited September 7, 2023 by HappyDays

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

It has, but only at guard. Creed Humphrey has exclusively been a center since his college days. So no I don't think him being here over Basham makes any kind of difference. Similarly I think the Chiefs would have been just as good the past couple years with just a decent center but I know that opinion is not shared by everyone.

 

 

I actually think we would have ended up the #1 seed with JuJu as our WR2 instead of Davis. Having a much more efficient player in that role would have been enough to make a difference in at least one of our losses IMO. The Jets and Dolphins losses in particular featured several negative plays from Davis and those games were decided by just a couple of plays. Flip one of those to a win and we get the #1 seed. The Bengals regular season game wouldn't have even mattered. If we head into the playoffs as the #1 seed that changes everything.

 

So if you want to look at small decisions that had a big impact on the outcome of the season, that one free agent decision was monumentally more important than us failing to draft a great center.

I think that's likely true

 

McKenzie playing important snaps, Davis an inefficient wr2, a better guy in FA solves both issues that hurt the offense

 

 

[FireChans]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

It has, but only at guard. Creed Humphrey has exclusively been a center since his college days. So no I don't think him being here over Basham makes any kind of difference. Similarly I think the Chiefs would have been just as good the past couple years with just a decent center but I know that opinion is not shared by everyone.

 

 

I actually think we would have ended up the #1 seed with JuJu as our WR2 instead of Davis. Having a much more efficient player in that role would have been enough to make a difference in at least one of our losses IMO. The Jets and Dolphins losses in particular featured several negative plays from Davis and those games were decided by just a couple of plays. Flip one of those to a win and we get the #1 seed. The Bengals regular season game wouldn't have even mattered. If we head into the playoffs as the #1 seed that changes everything.

 

So if you want to look at small decisions that had a big impact on the outcome of the season, that one free agency decision was monumentally more important than us failing to draft a great center.

 

I personally don’t agree on the JuJu thing and think you may be overstating his value a tiny bit, but I hear what you’re saying. I would say that the #1 seed thing is a little overblown given that we lost at home. I think the Jaguars may have beaten us in the divisional round last year.

 

Ultimately, I think our chances of winning an SB last year went out the window after the Hamlin incident. Too much trauma for a team to remain locked in (understandably so)

 

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Correct, hence all of the "depth" that we have on the team.  

 

Depth is great, when you have above-average starters, particularly difference makers.  

 

It is problematic for Cap reasons however if you constantly have to pay out to get those difference makers, often via high-risk contracts.  

 

Von Miller 

Floyd 

Diggs

McGovern 

Hyde 

Jones Poyer 

 

All of them either have some risk associated with their signings or cost a lot more than third or fourth year players would that played at their levels given where we've drafted.  

 

Torrence pending, Beane has yet to draft an above-average OL-man

He has yet to draft an above average WR  (Davis?  ... by the majority opinion here, no)  

He has yet to draft an above average RB.  Cook pending   

Kincaid is pending, Knox is above average, but only marginally so.  

 

IMO Edmunds was an above-average LB, but it seems that a majority opinion here disagrees.  Otherwise he has yet to draft an above-average LB.  

Rousseau may be above-average, Oliver is above-average, but given where he was drafted has obviously underperformed a 9th overall and the 2nd DT off the board, with several DTs taken after him having outperformed him.  

Beane has yet to draft an above-average DB besides Johnson who's also above-average but not by a lot.  And that after having come from the DB coaching ranks, having played DB, and having spent more picks by position (8) on DBs than any other.  

 

JMO ... I know you disagree.   

 

 

 

I don't much disagree with that actually. I think Dawson Knox and Taron Johnson are better than "marginally above average" but that apart I don't disagree with much else. 

 

Beane doesn't draft many outright busts... guys who just can't play. Cody Ford was one, personally I think Boogie Basham was another but let's see how he does with the Giants before we sign off on that. And then there is Vosean Joseph in round 5, Luke Tenuta in round 6, Austin Proehl in round 7. That is probably it. In all of his drafts. It is likely among the lowest outrigh miss rate of any GM. 

 

But I think the only two guys he has drafted who are top 5 at their position are Josh Allen and the aforemention Taron Johnson at nickel..... and both of those came in his first class in 2018. He needs a pick to hit really big sooner or later or the cap situation will be increasingly difficult to manage. Maybe Torrence or Kincaid or James Cook in year 2 are it. Gotta keep pur fingers crossed. We need some of our best players to still be on their rookie deals. 

[eball]

9 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Yea it’s not “new data” at all… nor meaningful. 

 

You’re such a tool.  And a one-trick pony.

 

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I don't much disagree with that actually. I think Dawson Knox and Taron Johnson are better than "marginally above average" but that apart I don't disagree with much else.

 

Thank you

 

Again, we're getting into definitions, we probably agree for the most part, but the point is that neither is an impact player much less premier, where Beane has fallen short.  

 

 

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Beane doesn't draft many outright busts... guys who just can't play. Cody Ford was one, personally I think Boogie Basham was another but let's see how he does with the Giants before we sign off on that. And then there is Vosean Joseph in round 5, Luke Tenuta in round 6, Austin Proehl in round 7. That is probably it. In all of his drafts. It is likely among the lowest outrigh miss rate of any GM.

 

Also, we can obviously discount 6th and 7th round picks since little is expected to come from them generally speaking.  Typically if one gets a steady role-player or depth player that's a very favorable development.  

 

Otherwise let's not forget Moss, and Elam and/or Bernard may also end up there.  

 

But let's also keep in mind, that good GM's aren't known as being good due to their ability to stock a roster via their Drafts of depth caliber and otherwise average or thereabouts players.  

 

 

[RyanC883]

6 hours ago, Dopey said:

So 22 receptions and ZERO TDs is a difference maker!?  That’s what Moore had last year. Stop that.
If you’re referring to Pacheco(Pacco), he was ok, but it’s a little early to call him a difference maker. CEH has similar stats his rookie season for KC and we know how that turned out. Even KC has misses. Crazy talk just to try and complain about Beane. 

 

What this team has accomplished the past few seasons is anything but mediocre. Again. Crazy talk. 

 

you forgot about Creed Humphrey.  Also, Oliver was taken No. 9 (not late), Edmunds 19, so not all of these picks that have turned out to be non difference makers have been “late picks”.  

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

But I think the only two guys he has drafted who are top 5 at their position are Josh Allen and the aforemention Taron Johnson at nickel..... and both of those came in his first class in 2018. He needs a pick to hit really big sooner or later or the cap situation will be increasingly difficult to manage. Maybe Torrence or Kincaid or James Cook in year 2 are it. Gotta keep pur fingers crossed. We need some of our best players to still be on their rookie deals. 

 

Agree.  I'm hopeful of both Torrence and Kincaid.  Cook not so much since he's never had more than 140 touches, 110 in the NFL, and he doesn't come acrossa as being a large robust RB that can take that kind of wear.  We'll see though, I'm slightly hopeful there too.  At the same time, we can survive and win a Championship without a top-10 RB, particularly w/ Allen at the helm.  

 

But Allen carries the perceptions that Beane is good.  When I look at this roster without Allen on it, I see better rosters apart from the QB position in numerous years during our drought.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

Also, we can obviously discount 6th and 7th round picks since little is expected to come from them generally speaking.  Typically if one gets a steady role-player or depth player that's a very favorable development.  

 

Otherwise let's not forget Moss, and Elam and/or Bernard may also end up there.  

 

But let's also keep in mind, that good GM's aren't known as being good due to their ability to stock a roster via their Drafts of depth caliber and otherwise average or thereabouts players.  

 

The reason I don't exclude 6th and 7th rounders is because I wouldn't exclude the successes he has had there - Tyler Bass, Christian Benford (potentially) and Dane Jackson in particular. So don't think it is fair to include the 6th and 7th round hits but not the misses. Though obviously those misses hurt less. 

 

Elam and Bernard fair, too soon to say. I think on Moss he can play in the league. He isn't great and he was overdrafted but as a short yardage back, good in pass protection and actually a good pass catcher he is a backup level player. 

 

On your final point, actually often they are. It is a really important part of the job. If you can draft the number of starting and solid backup level players Beane has in his drafts that is a way of managing your roster really effectively. GMs who don't do that lose their jobs pretty quickly. I agree drafting stars matters too and I have made this criticism if Beane for a number of years now. Lots of 6s and 7s not enough 9s and 10s. But you only have to look at the depth defensively last year with all the injuries to see that the 6s and 7s do matter, they will enable you to ride our injury crises better than other teams. Without the 9s and 10s they won't win you a championship though. 

[Chandler#81]

13 hours ago, vincec said:

Aaron Schobel?

On the Wall of Fame? No. Ergo, no.

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Agree.  I'm hopeful of both Torrence and Kincaid.  Cook not so much since he's never had more than 140 touches, 110 in the NFL, and he doesn't come acrossa as being a large robust RB that can take that kind of wear.  We'll see though, I'm slightly hopeful there too.  At the same time, we can survive and win a Championship without a top-10 RB, particularly w/ Allen at the helm.  

 

But Allen carries the perceptions that Beane is good.  When I look at this roster without Allen on it, I see better rosters apart from the QB position in numerous years during our drought.  

 

 

 

There were some. Definitely. The 2015 roster was, aside from QB the most talented I think I have seen in Buffalo on paper. Sadly not only was the QB underwhelming the coaching was horrible. 

 

But at the same time the Bills still have a top 3rd of the league roster even aside from Allen. It isn't as good as San Fran or Philly, or Cincy, or probably Dallas.... but I think it's about on a par with KC. 

[NewEra]

8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

No question that list of Chiefs picks is better (although it's fair to point out that they got two extra early picks by trading Tyreek Hill, which automatically gave them a 50% higher likelihold of finding good players).

 

But I think a better question in this conversation is: do the Bills and Chiefs trade records, playoffs included, over the last two years if those draft classes are swapped? Without hesitation my answer is no. None of those players made a huge difference for the Chiefs - they are all either role players or devalued positions or just pretty good. No stars at premium positions. None of them would have made a difference in any of our games and certainly not our last two playoff losses.

 

So if swapping the draft classes doesn't change our playoff fortunes or theirs, then it is fair to say that the discrepancy between us and the Chiefs is not because of Beane's somewhat lesser drafting in recent years.

 

IMO the discrepancy is mainly because of three major factors, in no particular order of importance:

 

1) They had 1 elite defensive player in each of their last two playoff runs. We had 0 elite defensive players.

2) They had superior coaching on both sides of the ball in the playoffs compared to us.

3) Beane's free agency signings have not been as effective as other contenders. For a $3.7 million cap hit the Chiefs got JuJu Smith-Schuster - an effective WR2 with a 77.2% catch percentage and 933 yards. For a $1.975 million cap hit we got Jamison Crowder - a complete dud. That one example was far and away more impactful to our season vs. theirs last year than all of that draft value discrepancy combined.

 

The conversation around Beane's drafting is a red herring IMO.

 

4). The nfl gods didn’t rule in our favor.  Injuries and random bs that tends to avoid the SB champion.  

[Mango]

13 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Aaron Schobel was the last DE draft to really hit. Schobel had 54 sacks in a 5 season span from 2002-2006 and another double-digit sack season with 10 sacks in 2009. All in all 78 sacks in 9 seasons which I would qualify as a very good pick. 

 

From 2002-2016 the Bills invested 4 picks in the top 2 rounds at DE. 2002-2003 they drafted Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denny, both were more or less decent role players at best. 2009 they drafted Aaron Maybin in the top 10 which was a huge miss (esp with Orakpo there) and then in 2016 the Bills drafted Shaq Lawson who after a sluggish start played decently in a contract year and then came back to the Bills on the cheap and is a solid role player. 

 

The Bills have under the McBeane era invested 3 picks in the first 2 rounds at DE. Boogie has already been traded. Groot and AJE are still on the roster but AJE is looking more like he is a fringe starter at best. Groot the jury is still out on. 

 

Given that since Schobel they have spent 7 picks in the first two rounds on the position it is really hard to think they haven't had at least one "solid hit" (I would say a player producing 2-3 double-digit sack seasons and some other 8ish sack years) unless AJE has an unexpected breakout the only hope for a home grown DE hit is Groot at this point. 

The kicker for me is that next year Groot and Miller are the only two DE under contract. We are - $33M over the cap for 2024 right now. 
 

Look for one, maybe even 2 DE taken high again. 
 

I expect a high pick for MLB as well.

OL and WR likely get pushed down the list. 

[Mango]

8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

No question that list of Chiefs picks is better (although it's fair to point out that they got two extra early picks by trading Tyreek Hill, which automatically gave them a 50% higher likelihold of finding good players).

 

But I think a better question in this conversation is: do the Bills and Chiefs trade records, playoffs included, over the last two years if those draft classes are swapped? Without hesitation my answer is no. None of those players made a huge difference for the Chiefs - they are all either role players or devalued positions or just pretty good. No stars at premium positions. None of them would have made a difference in any of our games and certainly not our last two playoff losses.

 

So if swapping the draft classes doesn't change our playoff fortunes or theirs, then it is fair to say that the discrepancy between us and the Chiefs is not because of Beane's somewhat lesser drafting in recent years.

 

IMO the discrepancy is mainly because of three major factors, in no particular order of importance:

 

1) They had 1 elite defensive player in each of their last two playoff runs. We had 0 elite defensive players.

2) They had superior coaching on both sides of the ball in the playoffs compared to us.

3) Beane's free agency signings have not been as effective as other contenders. For a $3.7 million cap hit the Chiefs got JuJu Smith-Schuster - an effective WR2 with a 77.2% catch percentage and 933 yards. For a $1.975 million cap hit we got Jamison Crowder - a complete dud. That one example was far and away more impactful to our season vs. theirs last year than all of that draft value discrepancy combined.

 

The conversation around Beane's drafting is a red herring IMO.

 

Great post and I largely agree. I think it’s his FA spend plus the draft that put the team in a tough spot at times.

 

One thing about Bills v Chiefs draft comparisons. The Chiefs won the SB starting 4 rookies all year. That’s a big draft. 

[DrDawkinstein]

8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

No question that list of Chiefs picks is better (although it's fair to point out that they got two extra early picks by trading Tyreek Hill, which automatically gave them a 50% higher likelihold of finding good players).

 

But I think a better question in this conversation is: do the Bills and Chiefs trade records, playoffs included, over the last two years if those draft classes are swapped? Without hesitation my answer is no. None of those players made a huge difference for the Chiefs - they are all either role players or devalued positions or just pretty good. No stars at premium positions. None of them would have made a difference in any of our games and certainly not our last two playoff losses.

 

So if swapping the draft classes doesn't change our playoff fortunes or theirs, then it is fair to say that the discrepancy between us and the Chiefs is not because of Beane's somewhat lesser drafting in recent years.

 

IMO the discrepancy is mainly because of three major factors, in no particular order of importance:

 

1) They had 1 elite defensive player in each of their last two playoff runs. We had 0 elite defensive players.

2) They had superior coaching on both sides of the ball in the playoffs compared to us.

3) Beane's free agency signings have not been as effective as other contenders. For a $3.7 million cap hit the Chiefs got JuJu Smith-Schuster - an effective WR2 with a 77.2% catch percentage and 933 yards. For a $1.975 million cap hit we got Jamison Crowder - a complete dud. That one example was far and away more impactful to our season vs. theirs last year than all of that draft value discrepancy combined.

 

The conversation around Beane's drafting is a red herring IMO.

 

 

Maybe not a 1:1 "guaranteed SB" results swap ,but I absolutely believe we improve enough to leapfrog them and get much better results.

 

Creed Humprhey was starting at Center for them in the 13 seconds game. If he isnt starting for them, and instead playing for us, maybe even a single play goes differently.

 

I also fully believe that with Humprhey, a young, strong, healthy (non-injured) road-grader, Josh gets that snap in the Vikings game and we go on to win. And that would change the entire course of last season.

 

I'll also add that it's only your opinion that Center is not a premium position. Getting a guy who is now an All-Pro AND Super Bowl champ is a Premium no matter where he plays. Let alone the guy who is making the protection calls and getting your QB the ball every play.

 

So yeah, swapping those draft classes absolutely changes our fortunes. With 2 glaring examples, and probably many more.

 

 

Edited September 7, 2023 by DrDawkinstein

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Creed Humprhey was starting at Center for them in the 13 seconds game. If he isnt starting for them, and instead playing for us, maybe even a single play goes differently.

 

In a shootout decided by a coin flip? I don't think the center on either side had anything to do with that outcome.

 

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I also fully believe that with Humprhey, a young, strong, healthy (non-injured) road-grader, Josh gets that snap in the Vikings game and we go on to win. And that would change the entire course of last season.

 

Are we saying Morse was responsible for that fumbled snap? I thought the common belief was that Josh simply flubbed it.

 

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I'll also add that it's only your opinion that Center is not a premium position. Getting a guy who is now an All-Pro AND Super Bowl champ is a Premium no matter where he plays.

 

It's not just my opinion, it's the common belief of everyone that makes decisions in the NFL. When is the last time a center only was drafted in the top 10? Currently only 6 centers have an AAV of over $10 million, and the highest paid center (Jason Kelce) has an AAV of $14.25 million.

 

Just to be clear I recognize that Humphrey was inarguably a much better pick than Basham. But that misstep has had no impact on our team's success. There have been much larger and more glaring blemishes on Beane's record.

[LabattBlue]

At the risk of repeating myself, Allen hides and makes up for the mistakes/defencies of McD & BB.   He alone has bought these 2 at least several years of job security. 

[DrDawkinstein]

20 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

In a shootout decided by a coin flip? I don't think the center on either side had anything to do with that outcome.

 

If it's a shootout decided by a coin flip, then I'd definitely argue removing one team's All Pro Center and putting him on the other team that has zero All Pro, or even Pro Bowl players, would absolutely affect the outcome.

 

One more Ed Oliver sack up the middle changes everything.

 

22 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Are we saying Morse was responsible for that fumbled snap? I thought the common belief was that Josh simply flubbed it.

 

No. Ultimately it's on Josh. I'm saying that I believe a lot of Josh's anxiety that caused the fumble was due to knowing his IOL was getting blown off the ball all day (all season), and that he'd have to get out quick.

 

Morse is a softer, pass-protecting Center. And by the Vikings game last year he had a bad elbow and a bad ankle.

 

I believe with the younger, healthy, stronger, road-grading Center, Josh feels more confident taking that snap and likely doesnt fumble.