Beane's drafting record...new data

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Chaos said:

Hence my exact comment that it is the rest of the lineup or coaching. 

The rest of the roster, especially the defensive side, should easily be good enough to advance further than we have

[KHAN]

The Bills have a GM and head coach who have taken a perennial loser and turned them in to a multi season division winner who consistently win 12+ games per year.

And a couple of bad post season losses means they suck.

 

I've heard Rex, Marrone and Whaley are available. lol

[Chaos]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

The rest of the roster, especially the defensive side, should easily be good enough to advance further than we have

Well, maybe we are narrowing it down.  Bad luck, or less than top tier coaching seem to be the remaining choices. 

[billsfan89]

Just now, KHAN said:

The Bills have a GM and head coach who have taken a perennial loser and turned them in to a multi season division winner who consistently win 12+ games per year.

And a couple of bad post season losses means they suck.

 

I've heard Rex, Marrone and Whaley are available. lol

 

How quickly people forget... The only true post-season choke job was 2021 as 13 seconds is inexcusable. 2020 the team hadn't made a deep run before and their entire WR core was injured by the first quarter of the AFCCG. 2022 the team underwent one of the most mentally exhausting seasons (far beyond just the Hamlin situation) since the 2007 Redskins (who had to deal with Sean Taylor's untimely passing in season) and were depleted by the time the playoffs came. 

 

I think McBeane certainly deserves a couple of more chances to right the ship and get over the hump. 

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Hence my exact comment that it is the rest of the lineup or coaching. 

 

Or luck. Or matchup. There is lots that plays in.

[billsfan89]

5 hours ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

When was the last time Buffalo drafted a DE that turned into a monster? I really can't remember, and it's odd that a position of such importance never really hits with these guys...strange.

 

Aaron Schobel was the last DE draft to really hit. Schobel had 54 sacks in a 5 season span from 2002-2006 and another double-digit sack season with 10 sacks in 2009. All in all 78 sacks in 9 seasons which I would qualify as a very good pick. 

 

From 2002-2016 the Bills invested 4 picks in the top 2 rounds at DE. 2002-2003 they drafted Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denny, both were more or less decent role players at best. 2009 they drafted Aaron Maybin in the top 10 which was a huge miss (esp with Orakpo there) and then in 2016 the Bills drafted Shaq Lawson who after a sluggish start played decently in a contract year and then came back to the Bills on the cheap and is a solid role player. 

 

The Bills have under the McBeane era invested 3 picks in the first 2 rounds at DE. Boogie has already been traded. Groot and AJE are still on the roster but AJE is looking more like he is a fringe starter at best. Groot the jury is still out on. 

 

Given that since Schobel they have spent 7 picks in the first two rounds on the position it is really hard to think they haven't had at least one "solid hit" (I would say a player producing 2-3 double-digit sack seasons and some other 8ish sack years) unless AJE has an unexpected breakout the only hope for a home grown DE hit is Groot at this point. 

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

How quickly people forget... The only true post-season choke job was 2021 as 13 seconds is inexcusable. 2020 the team hadn't made a deep run before and their entire WR core was injured by the first quarter of the AFCCG. 2022 the team underwent one of the most mentally exhausting seasons (far beyond just the Hamlin situation) since the 2007 Redskins (who had to deal with Sean Taylor's untimely passing in season) and were depleted by the time the playoffs came. 

 

I think McBeane certainly deserves a couple of more chances to right the ship and get over the hump. 

 

This is my view too. If someone wants to blame coaching for a choke in 2021 be my guest. No argument made. That wasn't the problem in 2020 or 2022 in my view.

[PBF81]

5 hours ago, eball said:

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

I would in turn ask, how many of the have become above-average starters.  

 

We all know Allen, but that singular pick of Allen also masks quite a few problems, both in drafting as well as on the field.  

 

I've been waiting for the official depth chart to come out to point out which draft picks are starters.  

 

On Defense where Beane's spent quite a few high-round (day 1/2) draft picks, we have:  

 

Rousseau

Oliver 

Bernard

Johnson 

Benford 

 

Of those, which are above-average?  I'd say Rousseau pending this season, Oliver slightly, but not by much.  

 

After 6 DL picks, 4 in rounds 1 & 2, two in each round, and 4 LB picks with no LBs to show for it, is that good?  

 

If you were a DC and were handed that to build a D around, would you be happy?  

 

On offense, apart from Allen, same questions.  How many above-average players has he drafted, and if you were an OC and were handed them, would you be content if the HC, GM, and owner expected you to put up a top-10 Offense?  

 

Davis

Brown

Knox

Cook

Gilliam  

 

Torrence too early despite him looking the part, same for Kincaid. 

Davis appears to have one foot out the door, not by his choice. 

Cook has yet to prove that he can withstand the rigors of more than 110 touches in the NFL.  His high at Georgia was 140.  

Knox is like Oliver, above average although not by much, but inconsistent.  

 

We can factor in the free agents, but that doesn't have much to do with the Drafts.  

 

Also, where you avoid Cap troubles lies in drafting well.  If you constantly have to pay top-dollar for players, at whatever level they're at, then Cap issues arise, necessarily.  

 

I know that I wouldn't be happy as an OC or DC if those cores were handed to me and I was expected to created a top-10 O or D unit.  

 

 

[Beck Water]

5 hours ago, eball said:

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

 

It's a good question.  What is the percentage for other teams, especially contenders?  That's kind of the key info, seems to me.

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The criticism of Beane has never been his ability to draft contributors or even starters. It is his ability to draft difference makers. I still think that is the knock. He has one in 5 drafts to this point (exluding this year's rookies) and that is Josh Allen.

 

He doesn't have many true busts. But he doesn't have a lot of slam dunks either.

 

Correct, hence all of the "depth" that we have on the team.  

 

Depth is great, when you have above-average starters, particularly difference makers.  

 

It is problematic for Cap reasons however if you constantly have to pay out to get those difference makers, often via high-risk contracts.  

 

Von Miller 

Floyd 

Diggs

McGovern 

Hyde 

Jones Poyer 

 

All of them either have some risk associated with their signings or cost a lot more than third or fourth year players would that played at their levels given where we've drafted.  

 

Torrence pending, Beane has yet to draft an above-average OL-man

He has yet to draft an above average WR  (Davis?  ... by the majority opinion here, no)  

He has yet to draft an above average RB.  Cook pending   

Kincaid is pending, Knox is above average, but only marginally so.  

 

IMO Edmunds was an above-average LB, but it seems that a majority opinion here disagrees.  Otherwise he has yet to draft an above-average LB.  

Rousseau may be above-average, Oliver is above-average, but given where he was drafted has obviously underperformed a 9th overall and the 2nd DT off the board, with several DTs taken after him having outperformed him.  

Beane has yet to draft an above-average DB besides Johnson who's also above-average but not by a lot.  And that after having come from the DB coaching ranks, having played DB, and having spent more picks by position (8) on DBs than any other.  

 

JMO ... I know you disagree.   

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

 

I will say, with Cook, Kincaid, and Torrence all coming down the hopper, there is a chance Beane's home run average increases greatly.

 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Creed Humphrey notwithstanding, so have the Chiefs is my point

 

I definitely understand it gets way tougher when you're at the end of the round, and looking back at recent 1sts/2nds over the same time, the Chiefs didnt exactly hit any jackpots.

 

One thing I did notice when looking back at their drafts is their willingness to trade those late 1sts for established players. Much like we did for Diggs.

Their 2019 1st and 2020 2nd was part of the Frank Clark trade. Their 2021 1st was part of the Orlando Brown Jr trade.

 

Maybe that's the trick if you are always picking in the end of the round?

 

 

[Jauronimo]

6 hours ago, eball said:

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

That is an interesting argument and at face value this analysis is ostensibly reasonable. However, I offer the following counterpoint for your consideration:

 

BEANE SUCKZZZZZZ!

[NoSaint]

6 hours ago, eball said:

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

its hard to say… 

 

is Reggie Gilliam meaningful? 
is it better we drafted bass than signing a vet?

people here hate brown? Is his starting a positive note? 
is Bernard starting because he’s good or because we have no one and he might lose the job by months end to a washed vet off?
 

how do those percentages compare league wide? 
 

it’s not a particularly meaningful tweet without context, right? 

Edited September 7, 2023 by NoSaint

[Billl]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Creed Humphrey notwithstanding, so have the Chiefs is my point

Nick Bolton was a second round pick that same year.

[Cray51]

I think the way to look at this is simple.  Take Beane's picks, rate them 1-5 (scale below).  Control against draft position.  That determines his effectiveness as a GM with drafting.  Retention is another conversation (Wyatt Teller).

 

Scale:

1-Bad Player, no impact

2-Below average for draft position, minimal impact

3-Average for draft position, decent impact

4-Above average for draft position, positive impact

5-Great for draft position, extreme positive impact

 

Bills Draft Record:

2018:

7 - Allen: 5 - Stud

16 - Edmunds: 3 - Played in pro bowls, gets a large deal, even if it was with another team.  Talent after selection (Derwin James, Jaire Alexander) is very strong

96 - Phillips: 3 - Received contract from Vikings, decent DT player in league. No one picked around him that made impact

121 - Johnson: 4 - Above average slot corner, starter on 32 NFL teams.  Strong result relative to draft position

154 - Neal: 3 - Special Teams ace - players selected around him: Quessenbery (lol), Settle, Tyler Conklin.  Bottom of the roster players

166 - Teller: 5 - Purely off of NFL impact.  Guy was a steal that we let get away.  Unfortunate, but Beane did make the selection

187 - McCloud: 3 - Bottom of roster player, but has played in 65 games in his career.  Punt Returner and currently on 49ers roster

255 - Proehl: 1 - not on team ever

 

Avg: 3.4 - Strong draft

 

2019:

9 - Oliver: 3 - Functional starter, is a good player.  Not great.  55% of top 10 picks play in a pro bowl, I think Oliver can still do that on his best seasons

38 - Ford: 2 - Started for the team, however was dealt.  Bad player, but did play for us in some capacity

74 - Singletary: 3 - 4 year RB impact

96 - Knox: 4 - Top 10 TE in the league at 96.  Great value and beats most others around him in impact

147 - Joseph: 1 - bad pick

181 - Johnson: 3 - Has played in 60 games for the Bills.  No one of value picked around him.  Average impact for a 6th round pick

225 - Johnson: 2 - Made roster for a few years, bottom of roster player

228 - Sweeney: 2 - Made roster, bottom of roster player

 

Avg: 2.5 - Average draft

 

2020:

54 - Epenesa: 2 - Backup, likely wont get a second contract with the team.  Better players selected soon after him

86 - Moss: 2 - Backup, dealt, not a impact player, however no one selected around him that was any better

128 - Davis: 4 - WR2, 20 career TDs.  Great value considering picks around him

167 - Fromm: 2 - Bottom of roster QB, left after a few years.  Still bumping around the league

188 - Bass: 4 - Above average kicker - good pick

207 - Hodgins: 3 - Took a while, and with another team, but finally showing results.  Would be WR3 on this team right now.  Decent value pick

239 - Jackson: 4 - CB2, would be CB2 on a lot of teams.  Great value for what he has brought.  Really liked his contributions to this team.

 

Avg: 3 - Good draft, lacks top talent but good value picks throughout

 

2021:

30 - Rousseau: 4 - Good DE, Pro Bowl potential.  12 sacks through two seasons

61 - Basham: 2 - Backup DE

93 - Brown: 3 - Rotational RT.  Has potential, but has been up and down.  Honestly, no one picked around him of value

161 - Doyle: 2 - Bottom of roster, injured often

203 - Stevenson: 1 - No impact

212 - Hamlin: 3 - Perfectly fine pick from the 6th round.  Bottom of roster guy who has played up when needed

213 - Wildgoose: 1 - no impact player

236 - Anderson: 1 - no impact player

 

Avg: 2.125 Lackluster draft.

 

So, overall from 2018-2021 (2022/23 still too soon), overall average for Beane is a 2.75.  If we consider an average draft a 2.5, I'd say he is slightly above average.  2021 was a bad draft, but it was also the COVID year.  If you take that out, it climbs to a 2.95, which is pretty strong.

 

I haven't had the time to compare against a team with similar draft position year over year, but Beane IMO is a slightly above average talent evaluator, but a plus contract guy and someone who will attack for guys he thinks will be NFL players (trades up in the draft).

 

[folz]

7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Must compare w rest of league

 

I couldn't find anything recent about GM's or team's overall draft success rate/ranking (except one SI article that I couldn't access without a subscription). But in searching, I did find these tidbits (not sure how much they help to answer the  original query, but I think they do show that drafting really well is a lot more difficult than most fans think).

 

 

According to this article, only 30% of draft picks even ever make a final NFL 53-man roster.

https://en.as.com/nfl/what-percentage-of-drafted-players-make-an-nfl-roster-n/#:~:text=These young men have won,it onto an NFL roster.

 

 

Per the article linked below: "...based on a study of 1996-2016 draft picks....

16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them

37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team.

15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had.

10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years. 

12.3% were considered good. These could be mediocre or average players that were multi-year starters. 

6.9% were considered Great. This category is the first that includes undeniably good draft picks. In order to be considered great, they would’ve had to play for the team that drafted them into a second contract, and also performed well over those years. 

1% were considered legendary. These are future Hall of Famers, multi-year All-Pros among the best in the league for most of their relatively long careers.

 

So, only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team. That means among the 260 or so drafted players each year, only about 2-3 will have Hall of Fame caliber careers, and only about 21 will be undisputedly good picks- and very good but not HoF caliber players."

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high

 

 

Just food for thought.

[BarleyNY]

5 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Yeah, "contributing starter" could just mean we couldnt find anyone better to fill that hole. Doesnt mean they are great.

Agree that it’s a ridiculous metric to use. It’s meaningless. Every team has to start a fair number of their draft picks - and a GM that’s run a team for a long time will have a bunch. Duh.

 

Please note that I don’t think Beane is a poor drafter. I think he’s been average/solid. He’s found some good players but if I had one criticism it would be that since the Allen pick he hasn’t drafted a big difference maker (unless it happened this last draft). I’d like to see another home run soon. But people saying that he sucks don’t know what an average draft looks like. Overall he’s certainly put enough talent on the team to compete for a championship. 

Edited September 7, 2023 by BarleyNY

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, Yobogoya! said:

I mean if you put me in charge of a team for 5 years, a lot of my draft picks are going to be starters. 
 

Doesn’t mean they’re going to be particularly high quality starters, lol

 

 

Maybe they would start. Particularly if the team you built was as bad as it would likely be. (Not that I'd do much better, if any.) We're not GMs and the tendency is to think we could do at least a decent job, when in fact, we would absolutely botch the job.

 

And it's a lot harder to get newer guys in the lineup when the lineup is as excellent as this one and you're consistently drafting in the mid to late twenties.

[Milanos Milano]

Quality > Quantity  

 

 

Our drafting all pros is lacking vs other GMs.