Beane's drafting record...new data

[eball]

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

[The Frankish Reich]

12 minutes ago, eball said:

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

It's good! 

Wouldn't we all love to have Rousseau turn into prime Von, or Cook turn into prime, umm, CJ Spiller (sorry). But you start off with a mile long lead if you draft a franchise QB, and lots of other guys are big to significant contributors.

[GoBills808]

Must compare w rest of league

[Yobogoya!]

I mean if you put me in charge of a team for 5 years, a lot of my draft picks are going to be starters. 
 

Doesn’t mean they’re going to be particularly high quality starters, lol

[Low Positive]

17 minutes ago, eball said:

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

Homer! Get your head out of the sand. Do you remember Wyatt Teller? Or the Jacksonville game? /s

 

But seriously. Everyone loves the Bengals drafting now, but remember they took John Ross and Billy Price, who are both out of football, in the first round in back-to-back years (2017 and 2018). And Ross was picked right before Mahomes!

 

 

[BuffaloBaumer]

When was the last time Buffalo drafted a DE that turned into a monster? I really can't remember, and it's odd that a position of such importance never really hits with these guys...strange.

[Mango]

Is 48% good? I honestly don't know. 

 

One thing I think is important to remember is that The Bills are no longer peers to the rest of the league. They operate in a world with KC, Cincinatti, and maybe Philly. So the measure for McBeane isn't "have they done a good job". It is have they done a good enough job compared to KC and CIN (and maybe a couple other teams). We aren't really measured against Pittsburgh anymore. 

 

This era of Bills football will go down as awesome no matter how it ends. Sort of like the 2005-2007 Sabres. Great team. Unfortunate injuries and getting flat in the playoffs. But ultimately Lindy and Darcy did great by the franchise in that era. McBeane will likely have a similar reputation in Buffalo sports history if they don't win it all.

[Low Positive]

Just now, Mango said:

Is 48% good? I honestly don't know. 

 

One thing I think is important to remember is that The Bills are no longer peers to the rest of the league. They operate in a world with KC, Cincinatti, and maybe Philly. So the measure for McBeane isn't "have they done a good job". It is have they done a good enough job compared to KC and CIN (and maybe a couple other teams). We aren't really measured against Pittsburgh anymore. 

 

This era of Bills football will go down as awesome no matter how it ends. Sort of like the 2005-2007 Sabres. Great team. Unfortunate injuries and getting flat in the playoffs. But ultimately Lindy and Darcy did great by the franchise in that era. McBeane will likely have a similar reputation in Buffalo sports history if they don't win it all.

Buffalo would have its championship if not for some sweaty shin pads. 

[Mango]

Just now, FrenchConnection said:

Buffalo would have its championship if not for some sweaty shin pads. 

 

And hockey superstitions!

[BillsVet]

The FB is a starter but poster doesn't know he's a UDFA?  A guy who had a 14% and 17% snap count on offense these past 2 seasons?  Not quite.  

 

The quality or better starters (top half at their position across the NFL) on that list are Allen, Knox, Oliver, Rousseau, Johnson and Bass.  Torrence is a complete unknown as a rookie, so counting him as a "starter" is weak for this exercise and Bernard had less than 11% of their total defensive snaps last year. 

 

But let's include (even though Beane didn't take them) Tre, Puff Dawkins and Milano.  That's 9 quality starters out of 25 total starters from 2017-2022.  And of those 9, 4 are RD1 picks, 1 is RD2, 1 is RD3, 1 is RD4, 1 is RD5, and the RD6 pick is their kicker.

 

Not a stellar draft record.  More pedestrian with a franchise QB as has been mentioned previously. Heck, I'd say McD did better without Beane in 2017 save for 2018. 

 

[AuntieEm]

29 minutes ago, Yobogoya! said:

I mean if you put me in charge of a team for 5 years, a lot of my draft picks are going to be starters. 
 

Doesn’t mean they’re going to be particularly high quality starters, lol

 

Teams without quality starters don't often luck into 13 wins.  

[Big Turk]

10 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

The FB is a starter but poster doesn't know he's a UDFA?  A guy who had a 14% and 17% snap count on offense these past 2 seasons?  Not quite.  

 

The quality or better starters (top half at their position across the NFL) on that list are Allen, Knox, Oliver, Rousseau, Johnson and Bass.  Torrence is a complete unknown as a rookie, so counting him as a "starter" is weak for this exercise and Bernard had less than 11% of their total defensive snaps last year. 

 

But let's include (even though Beane didn't take them) Tre, Puff Dawkins and Milano.  That's 9 quality starters out of 25 total starters from 2017-2022.  And of those 9, 4 are RD1 picks, 1 is RD2, 1 is RD3, 1 is RD4, 1 is RD5, and the RD6 pick is their kicker.

 

Not a stellar draft record.  More pedestrian with a franchise QB as has been mentioned previously. Heck, I'd say McD did better without Beane in 2017 save for 2018. 

 

 

guarantee better than more teams than you think

[Yobogoya!]

14 minutes ago, AuntieEm said:

 

Teams without quality starters don't often luck into 13 wins.  

This topic is about this year’s roster bud, last year’s wins don’t mean too much. Either way, I didn’t say anything about the overall quality of our roster. 
 

But is it really enough to say that after five years the starting roster is mostly the GM’s draft picks? Or should we be looking at the quality level of those players and how strong their contributions are? Just a thought. 

[msw2112]

I don't know if this statistic is good without comparing it to other teams' numbers.  Subjectively, I think that Beane is an excellent GM overall and maybe average to slightly-above-average when it comes to drafting players.  There are other aspects to the GM job that he's very good with.  Cap management, pro personnel/free agency, media management, culture-setting, etc.

[freddyjj]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

When was the last time Buffalo drafted a DE that turned into a monster? I really can't remember, and it's odd that a position of such importance never really hits with these guys...strange.

 

Edited September 6, 2023 by freddyjj

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

When was the last time Buffalo drafted a DE that turned into a monster? I really can't remember, and it's odd that a position of such importance never really hits with these guys...strange.

WOFer Phil Hanson

[DrDawkinstein]

2 hours ago, eball said:

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

 

The recent criticisms havent been that Beane cant draft at all, or that he wastes all of his picks.

 

The criticisms have been that he hasnt turned his early (1st/2nd) picks into home runs.

 

If the bar is simply "decent starter" then sure. He can fill holes, no problem.

 

But Edmunds was lackluster when home runs like Shaq Leonard and Fred Warner were there. Ed Oliver is, well, Ed Oliver. And then there's a string of 2nd round picks that have been pretty much flops.'

 

So this data and stat doesnt exactly refute the recent criticism on Bills drafting. It's merely looking at it from a different metric which really just lowers the bar in that discussion.

 

I'm not much of a hindsight guy since it's too easy to go back and criticize, but on a lot of those wasted 2nds there were plenty of fans online begging to use the pick on another player, and the fan-favorite players have gone on to make major impacts to their teams while we have cut/traded guys away.

 

 

10 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

WOFer Phil Hanson

 

More recently, Aaron Schobel. But yeah, havent been many since Bruce.

[DrDawkinstein]

6 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

What does he mean by early contributions??…. I mean Bernard? Dude was awful last year and is being forced to start BECAUSE of where he was drafted and every other scrub they have at the position. 
 

Beanes not horrible with the draft but great or even good? Eh. He’s failed to find any superstars outside of Allen and his day 2 picks have been trash.

 

Yeah, "contributing starter" could just mean we couldnt find anyone better to fill that hole. Doesnt mean they are great.

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, eball said:

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

 

It is true that Oliver, Benford, Bernard, Brown are starters.....

[vincec]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

WOFer Phil Hanson

Aaron Schobel?