Short Passing on Trial Early

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

I think if the oline can improve a bit, josh will be a lot more willing to take short throws.  Of course none of us are in his head, but it’s gotta be frustrating knowing a drive killing holding penalty or a sack from pretty much instant pressure was extremely likely on any drive with a high play count.

[Rubes]

14 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

In two games last year, the Jets allowed a combined 352 yards passing. They Blitzed Josh just 9 times in two games. Individually, each match up ranked in the top 4 least blitzed games Allen saw last year.

 

Allen tried to throw into this look the first game. His air yards per attempt ranking 4th highest for the year in that match up. It wasn't a good result and played right into what the Jets wanted. In the 2nd game, Josh reined it in more averaging 8.2 air yards per attempt which ended up being a full 4 yards less than the first game. In both games the results of those completed passes were in the bottom 5 games as far as length of completion. First game going for 6.4 yards per completion and the second going for a season low 4.6 yards per completion.  

 

The Jets, as much as anybody, do not think Josh is willing to take underneath throws. They won't blitz, they will flood the zone, they will beg Josh to beat them downfield. They play the same style of defense the Steelers used against us in the 2021 opener and that teams started playing more in the 2nd half of last year as Josh saw the Blitz nearly stop completely. When Blitzed 6 times or less last year, Josh passed for 147, 172, 197, 205, 223, and 254. All 6 games happened week 9 or later. Teams do not think Allen is able to take what the defense gives him. They want him to drive the length of the field in boring fashion. On our side we really need to show the NFL early that we will feast underneath if you give it to us. IF we can do that it will open it up deep later on. 

 

A pretty game for Josh is a whole lot of check downs. Underneath throws. About 200 or so yards and a solid completion %. Keep the chains moving. Do not let the first game excitement get to you. 

 

This is a nice analysis, but it's a good representation of the classic problem of having observational data and then trying to generate a causal narrative that explains it.

 

Did teams realize that Josh does better against the blitz and thus stop blitzing him? Did teams realize that Josh doesn't like the short underneath throws and thus stopped blitzing him to force him to do that? It's hard to say what the cause was just from looking at the data.

 

We all know that every team, every defense, would prefer not to blitz if they didn't have to. If your four-man rush is effective at getting to the QB, that gives you the ability to keep extra men in coverage, making the passing game more challenging. Sure, they'll throw in a few blitzes here and there to confuse things, but I think it's fair to say that pretty much every defensive coordinator dreams of having a defensive front four that allows them to blitz judiciously.

 

That said, did teams stop blitzing Josh because they had strong front fours and didn't have to blitz? Did the Bills offensive line get banged up and worse during the season, making even mediocre front fours more effective? In other words, did teams stop blitzing Josh not because he's good against the blitz, or because they wanted to bait him into underneath throws, but because they just didn't have to blitz at all?

 

That's more along the lines of what you want to try to answer, assuming you're looking for the causal explanation to the data you've observed. Nice work to this point! Generates good discussion, which is what we want.

 

[BeavercreekBillsFan]

13 hours ago, FireChans said:

Eh, if I was the Jets, I'd put a nickel DB on Kincaid and take my chances.

This. I keep hearing 12 personnel but “you are what the defense plays you as.” You run 12 to try to get the defense to match you and then you exploit that from an offensive standpoint. Problem is that Kincaid isn’t a great blocker and we are a passing team so teams are going to still play nickel until we come out of our comfort zone. Every time josh turns around and hands it off, that’s a win already for the defense and a loss for us. Unless we decide to become a run heavy team, no reason for the jets to come out of nickel. Just because we put 2 TEs out there, doesn’t mean teams have to match that way until we prove we can change our ways. 
 

Someone said we need to run quicker and shorter routes and while that sounds good in theory, how do we do that? Diggs is going to be doubled, and sauce has Gabe. Gabe isn’t any good in the short area of the field anyways. So Kincaid has to win his matchup and cook needs to be involved too in some capacity. 
 

Jets always gives josh problems. They kill our o line with just 4 and then take Diggs away. That’s how we always lose in the playoffs too. Kincaid and cook have to be huge in order for us to win. 

[Mikie2times]

18 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 

This is a nice analysis, but it's a good representation of the classic problem of having observational data and then trying to generate a causal narrative that explains it.

 

Did teams realize that Josh does better against the blitz and thus stop blitzing him? Did teams realize that Josh doesn't like the short underneath throws and thus stopped blitzing him to force him to do that? It's hard to say what the cause was just from looking at the data.

 

We all know that every team, every defense, would prefer not to blitz if they didn't have to. If your four-man rush is effective at getting to the QB, that gives you the ability to keep extra men in coverage, making the passing game more challenging. Sure, they'll throw in a few blitzes here and there to confuse things, but I think it's fair to say that pretty much every defensive coordinator dreams of having a defensive front four that allows them to blitz judiciously.

 

That said, did teams stop blitzing Josh because they had strong front fours and didn't have to blitz? Did the Bills offensive line get banged up and worse during the season, making even mediocre front fours more effective? In other words, did teams stop blitzing Josh not because he's good against the blitz, or because they wanted to bait him into underneath throws, but because they just didn't have to blitz at all?

 

That's more along the lines of what you want to try to answer, assuming you're looking for the causal explanation to the data you've observed. Nice work to this point! Generates good discussion, which is what we want.

 

I understand the point you're trying to make here, but with this view, most analysis that exists would become irrelevant. So to me it's just sort of an odd point to make. I mean take any stat that exists and I can apply this lens to it.  EX: Josh's TD's are up. Well, that's not Josh and his TD's per say, it could be better WR's, better blocking, better play calling.....Lets not really talk about Josh's TD's being up because we are just creating casual narratives. 

 

If you go back to the first page I had a fairly lengthy post on teams, namely our divisional rivals not blitzing Josh anymore or better stated, our offense. Specifically in the 2nd half of last year. Now is it because the line? Poor WR's? Coaching? Josh? It could obviously be any of those things or all of those things, but whatever it is seemed to work rather well and it stands to reason we will keep seeing it until we show we can handle it.  

[BigAl2526]

15 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

In two games last year, the Jets allowed a combined 352 yards passing. They Blitzed Josh just 9 times in two games. Individually, each match up ranked in the top 4 least blitzed games Allen saw last year.

 

Allen tried to throw into this look the first game. His air yards per attempt ranking 4th highest for the year in that match up. It wasn't a good result and played right into what the Jets wanted. In the 2nd game, Josh reined it in more averaging 8.2 air yards per attempt which ended up being a full 4 yards less than the first game. In both games the results of those completed passes were in the bottom 5 games as far as length of completion. First game going for 6.4 yards per completion and the second going for a season low 4.6 yards per completion.  

 

The Jets, as much as anybody, do not think Josh is willing to take underneath throws. They won't blitz, they will flood the zone, they will beg Josh to beat them downfield. They play the same style of defense the Steelers used against us in the 2021 opener and that teams started playing more in the 2nd half of last year as Josh saw the Blitz nearly stop completely. When Blitzed 6 times or less last year, Josh passed for 147, 172, 197, 205, 223, and 254. All 6 games happened week 9 or later. Teams do not think Allen is able to take what the defense gives him. They want him to drive the length of the field in boring fashion. On our side we really need to show the NFL early that we will feast underneath if you give it to us. IF we can do that it will open it up deep later on. 

 

A pretty game for Josh is a whole lot of check downs. Underneath throws. About 200 or so yards and a solid completion %. Keep the chains moving. Do not let the first game excitement get to you. 

I had reached the same conclusion about a short passing game.  It is absolutely essential versus the Jets.

[Rubes]

30 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I understand the point you're trying to make here, but with this view, most analysis that exists would become irrelevant. So to me it's just sort of an odd point to make. I mean take any stat that exists and I can apply this lens to it.  EX: Josh's TD's are up. Well, that's not Josh and his TD's per say, it could be better WR's, better blocking, better play calling.....Lets not really talk about Josh's TD's being up because we are just creating casual narratives. 

 

If you go back to the first page I had a fairly lengthy post on teams, namely our divisional rivals not blitzing Josh anymore or better stated, our offense. Specifically in the 2nd half of last year. Now is it because the line? Poor WR's? Coaching? Josh? It could obviously be any of those things or all of those things, but whatever it is seemed to work rather well and it stands to reason we will keep seeing it until we show we can handle it.  

 

I get that, sure. I'm just responding to the comments in your original post where you were drawing several conclusions about what happened and why. Yes, we know what the end result is, but understanding why is the key to knowing how to best address it.

 

[Scott7975]

15 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

 

Thanks. I posted the data below in the offseason and I remembered how slanted the Jets played us from that. Which we have to expect again. I have been extremely critical of our inability to take underneath offense. Which triggers a ton of conversations as to why, all of which I don't care to rehash. Having said this what an opportunity to show a evolution in the offense. Some power run. Methodical. Move the chains. That is the style the Jets will give us. Will we take it?

 

 

 

 

 

TBF we really didn't have underneath guys.  Davis is a downfield guy with limited route tree, McKenzie was not very good, Knox I am not sure what they were doing with him but it wasn't offense, Diggs is doubled, and that leaves our running backs who were not good in the pass game. A couple of Josh Ints were a result of Cook not doing the right thing. None of our team were good YAC guys making the short game that much worse.  Not saying some of this isn't on Josh but it's the team too.  May even be Dorsey as well.

Edited September 5, 2023 by Scott7975