I'm optimistic heading into this season

[PBF81]

10 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

We were 13-3 last year despite a massive injury toll and all those turnovers.Last year's schedule was brutal too. 2 of our 3 losses were in the division and all 3 were by a combined single score. 

 

It was a very average schedule as SoS goes.  In fact, league wide, we ranked in a 4-way tie for the 11th (11th-14th) toughest schedule on paper.  

 

We only played three teams during the regular season that finished with 10 or more wins.  We started to play Cincy, the fourth, and they were getting the better of us before the game was canceled.  We beat KC by 4, the Ravens by 3, and lost to the Vikes by 3 otherwise.  

 

Only two of all of the other teams that we played scored more points than they allowed, New England and Detroit, and Detroit pushed the game to the time limit.  New England, despite scoring a point-a-game more than they allowed, was not good.  Their offense ranked 17th and their D ranked 11th.  The schedule was far from brutal.  

 

The Jets beat us once as well and allowed us an average of only 18.5, to their 16 PPG in both contests.  We maxed out at 317 total yards, 20 points, and 19 1st-Downs against them.  Their D hasn't changed much, but their offense has.  

 

This season's schedule will be notably tougher.  I wouldn't be surprised if it's one of the toughtest handful in the league by season's end.  

 

As long as our offense antes up to expectations we'll be fine however.  

 

Teams can easily win a Super Bowl with an average D these days.  

 

 

[Doc]

12 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

You're preaching to the choir.  

 

Roquan Smith is a far better player however.  There's no comparison to Dodson, now or at the time of their respective drafts.  Smith was the first LB taken, Edmunds was the second.  Dodson went undrafted.  

 

If anything, it's a knock on "The Process."  

 

If you want a more reasonable comp, watch how Nakobe Dean plays this fall.  We could have had him instead of Cook or even traded up slightly to get him instead of Bernard.  There's a world of difference between those two players as well, a whole lot more than 6 draft spots. 

 

The point wasn't the quality of player, it was the ability to play in a defense.  Kirksey has been in the league for 9 seasons and shouldn't have a problem.

 

As for Dean, he played just 43 defensive snaps total last season, his rookie season, including just 9 in the playoffs (and none in the SB).  He's a projection.  And he's just 5'11" and 231#.

[PBF81]

Just now, Doc said:

 

The point wasn't the quality of player, it was the ability to play in a defense.  Kirksey has been in the league for 9 seasons and shouldn't have a problem.

 

As for Dean, he played just 43 defensive snaps total last season, his rookie season, including just 9 in the playoffs (and none in the SB).  He's a projection.  And he's just 5'11" and 231#.

 

As someone that did a notable amount of post-draft research on Dean, I'm telling you that there's no comparison between Kirksey and Dean.  

 

Dean sat behind Edwards who joined Edmunds in Chicago this season.  Do your homework boss.  

 

Did you watch any of his footage from UGA?  Did you read his draft profiles?  

 

He'll be above-average in Philly.  Right now on a good day, even with Kirksey, we have average, again, on a good day.  

 

Kirksey also has a significant injury history, particularly recently.  

 

I have no idea why anyone is optimistic about Kirksey other than to replace mediocre with marginally better than mediocre.  

 

 

As well, we should be pleasantly surprised if he plays anywhere close to all 17 games.  

 

 

[Realist]

9 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

As someone that did a notable amount of post-draft research on Dean, I'm telling you that there's no comparison between Kirksey and Dean.  

 

Dean sat behind Edwards who joined Edmunds in Chicago this season.  Do your homework boss.  

 

Did you watch any of his footage from UGA?  Did you read his draft profiles?  

 

He'll be above-average in Philly.  Right now on a good day, even with Kirksey, we have average, again, on a good day.  

 

Kirksey also has a significant injury history, particularly recently.  

 

I have no idea why anyone is optimistic about Kirksey other than to replace mediocre with marginally better than mediocre.  

 

 

As well, we should be pleasantly surprised if he plays anywhere close to all 17 games.  

 

 

Ok, you talked me down. I now hate this team. 

[PBF81]

1 minute ago, Realist said:

Ok, you talked me down. I now hate this team. 

 

Good for you!

 

As stated, I anticipate the offense setting franchise records for Passing Yards, Total Yards, Points Scored, and Passing TDs.  

 

If that happens, which stiff plays MLB will hopefully be a non-factor for as poor planning as it was to leave us in this position.  

 

I will add this, Davlin Cook in the only game he played us in his career, tore us a new one last season.  Now he's with Rodgers on a team that held us to 18.5 PPG on average and a max of 20 points.  I'm not sure I see that going well for us a week from Monday.  

 

 

[Unforgiven]

I remember I was highly optimistic going into a season fitzpatrick was the starter and they got killed 

by the jets opening game.

[Doc]

27 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

As someone that did a notable amount of post-draft research on Dean, I'm telling you that there's no comparison between Kirksey and Dean.  

 

Dean sat behind Edwards who joined Edmunds in Chicago this season.  Do your homework boss.  

 

Did you watch any of his footage from UGA?  Did you read his draft profiles?  

 

He'll be above-average in Philly.  Right now on a good day, even with Kirksey, we have average, again, on a good day.  

 

Kirksey also has a significant injury history, particularly recently.  

 

I have no idea why anyone is optimistic about Kirksey other than to replace mediocre with marginally better than mediocre.  

 

 

As well, we should be pleasantly surprised if he plays anywhere close to all 17 games. 

 

I did research boss.  Despite his college performance and draft profiles, he was taken in the mid-3rd round of the draft, probably because he's 5'11" and ran a 4.7 40-yard. 

 

In his rookie year he was basically a ST'er, getting just a handful of defensive snaps in 6 games at the end of blowouts in either direction (including the playoffs), 12 and 15 in 2 other games and none in the season finale or Superbowl.  As I said, we'll see how he does now that he'll see real action.

[PBF81]

40 minutes ago, Doc said:

I did research boss.  Despite his college performance and draft profiles, he was taken in the mid-3rd round of the draft, probably because he's 5'11" and ran a 4.7 40-yard. 

 

In his rookie year he was basically a ST'er, getting just a handful of defensive snaps in 6 games at the end of blowouts in either direction (including the playoffs), 12 and 15 in 2 other games and none in the season finale or Superbowl.  As I said, we'll see how he does now that he'll see real action.

 

So you noticed that on most boards he was a 1st or 2nd rounder then, right?  

 

Just checking.  

 

We will see.  Either way, this nonsense about Kirksey, I don't get.  

 

Some people simply cannot come to grips with the notion that we're in this situation because of pie-in-the-sky drafting and poor planning otherwise. 

 

Again, fortunately, finally McBeane have come to grips, even if they had their hand forced after 6 seasons, with the notion that A, you need to protect your generational franchise QB, and B, that offense, not defense, particularly passing, that wins championships these days.  

 

 

[pi2000]

There's reasons to be hopeful, and reasons to be concerned.

 

Won't be surprised if they go 14-3 or 9-8.

 

The one area I think they'll imrpove is pressuring QBs.    McDermott calls a much more aggressive game than Frasier, should result in more turnovers.

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

I did research boss.  Despite his college performance and draft profiles, he was taken in the mid-3rd round of the draft, probably because he's 5'11" and ran a 4.7 40-yard. 

 

In his rookie year he was basically a ST'er, getting just a handful of defensive snaps in 6 games at the end of blowouts in either direction (including the playoffs), 12 and 15 in 2 other games and none in the season finale or Superbowl.  As I said, we'll see how he does now that he'll see real action.

 

Oh, any that Bernard was considered a reach in the third by a good many.  

 

As I recall, he was a projected 3rd - 5th.

 

But our staff knew better.  

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

 

[Doc]

17 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

So you noticed that on most boards he was a 1st or 2nd rounder then, right?  

 

Just checking.  

 

We will see.  Either way, this nonsense about Kirksey, I don't get.  

 

Some people simply cannot come to grips with the notion that we're in this situation because of pie-in-the-sky drafting and poor planning otherwise. 

 

Again, fortunately, finally McBeane have come to grips, even if they had their hand forced after 6 seasons, with the notion that A, you need to protect your generational franchise QB, and B, that offense, not defense, particularly passing, that wins championships these days. 

 

Draft predictions don't really mean much to me.  It's production in the NFL that matters.  Dean is wholly unproven.  Now he may turn out to be a stud, but I'll need to see it first.

 

As for the Bills' situation, I'll admit it wasn't the greatest of planning, although injuries messed up their plans, but they may have gotten lucky here.  We'll see.

 

And I agree on offense.  I'd still like to see a complete team.

[Buckets]

On 8/31/2023 at 6:29 PM, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Why? Well, primarily because being a pessimist is stupid and counterproductive.

 

But, here are some enumerated reasons for optimism:

 

1) Year two of Dorsey in his job. Experience is valuable, and now he's going to have some more tools in the box. I'm really bullish on the tight ends especially.

 

2) we have Josh Allen. So long as that alien clone supersoldier is our QB, we have a chance to win.

 

3) Another year for Groot. Last year, the Frenchman had a sneaky 8 sack season, I see no plausible reason he can't build off it. I see at least 10 for Greg.

 

4) no Leslie Frazier. Thank heaven.

 

5) The pressure of expectation is shifted to lesser teams in the Jests and Miami. This team does better in that environment.

 

I could go on, but go bills 

You forgot the third stic, realistic.

[MasterStrategist]

5 hours ago, PBF81 said:

Expect a much better offense, a notably worse defense, and how good this team actually is on Dorsey/Allen and whether or not they can figure out how to work in those short high-percentage plays to keep the clock and chains moving, and the D off the field as much as possible.  

 

My personal anticipation is for a franchise record pass attempts, completions, passing yards, total yards, and passing TDs.  

 

Also expecting pushing the top-5 for all-time points scored in NFL history.  I envison the team beating its existing franchise 31.3 PPG mark by several PPG.  

 

Defense, average at best.  

 

Not sure about our record.  I can see McD being outcoached at times, whether our offense overcomes that, who knows.  He'll have his hands full, and those that he's assigned under him aren't exactly rich in achievements.  "Comfort," "familiarity," etc., great, but short on overall achievements nonetheless.  

 

Our first game will be key in several ways.  I'm thinking we come away with the win, but some are underestimating the Jets too.  Their D is incredibly tough particularly their front-7.  Our new and improved OL is going to be thrown into the fire.  How we respond will be key.  (See the first sentence)  

 

 

We have too much talent on defense & a great staff, to experience what you're saying.  

 

Biggest difference I'm expecting to see this year is in the trenches, both sides got better especially IOL.  I agree that our offense should be better,  but we will also be playing improved/very tough defenses in the AFCE, NFCE and others.  I think setting the bar above LY makes sense for sure and should offense. realistic goal as top scoring offense. Historical/record breaking, I'll pump the brakes until the OL shows me more.

 

I have us finishing with 13-14 wins.  Much more well-rounded than LY, as a team, and think we will improve the most in turnover differential (past 4 seasons. +4, +4, +8, +0 in 2022).  In that department and improved RZ play, this team can take it up a notch.

 

Week 1: glad we have this "litmus test" immediately, only thing better would be Von suited up (but it's the correct decision).  30-23 Bills

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

11 hours ago, Buckets said:

You forgot the third stic, realistic.

Around here, "realism" is pessimism 

[Dr. Who]

27 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Around here, "realism" is pessimism 

And by the same metric, simply being a fan is a "homer."

Of course, there are polyanna types, but when hoping for best plausible outcomes is grouped

in with irrational optimism, one's sense of "reason" and "facts" is just as distorted as what is abjured.

[Dopey]

22 hours ago, SCBills said:

I’m optimistic, but back to wait and see mode.  
 

It really comes down to the lines.  The over-investment (without returns) on the DL and the lack of investment (with ramifications) on the OL.  
 

The Jets game will really test both of my concerns. 

 

-Can our OL protect Allen against an elite DL?

 

-Can our DL, without Von, take advantage of a weak OL against a QB like Rodgers?

 

On paper, however.. whether by development, return from injury and/or additions, we should be improved at OL, DL, CB, S, RB, WR & TE.  
 

Then factor in a healthy Josh Allen and Year Two of Dorsey & Kromer. 
 

Lots to be excited about. 

If you look at the number of positive reactions (likes, etc), they outnumber the negative. By a landslide. I think they don’t post as much as the pitch fork crew because they know that crew will come at you. They’re a minority here, but damn they are vocal. 

Glad to see some positive threads, though. 

[Dr.Sack]

I agree with every bullet point. On defense an argument could be made we will be worse, but don’t expect falling off a cliff. I watched a YouTube video titled Belichick Defensive Genius. The premise being how the Patriots play Dime defense, and use their safeties and cornerbacks like LBs. I believe Kincaid is the key to unlocking our offense. If we can deploy 12 personnel effectively (pass & run) we will light up the Patriots, Jets & Fins.

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Dr.Sack said:

I agree with every bullet point. On defense an argument could be made we will be worse, but don’t expect falling off a cliff. I watched a YouTube video titled Belichick Defensive Genius. The premise being how the Patriots play Dime defense, and use their safeties and cornerbacks like LBs. I believe Kincaid is the key to unlocking our offense. If we can deploy 12 personnel effectively (pass & run) we will light up the Patriots, Jets & Fins.

 

Just because of the loss of Edmunds as he's the only player that isn't returning?  Because a healthy White and Hyde will be big, adding Floyd is huge and Benford no longer being a rookie should help.  And then Von returns after 4 games.  Plus late addition Kirskey helps lessen the loss of Edmunds.

[SCBills]

6 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Just because of the loss of Edmunds as he's the only player that isn't returning?  Because a healthy White and Hyde will be big, adding Floyd is huge and Benford no longer being a rookie should help.  And then Von returns after 4 games.  Plus late addition Kirskey helps lessen the loss of Edmunds.

I don’t expect Von back until Week 6, but the fact remains .. the defense we finished the year with doesn’t hold a candle to our opening day roster.  
 

Loss:

 

Edmunds

 

Added:

 

Floyd

Ford

Rapp

 

Now Healthy:

 

Phillips

White

Poyer

Hyde

Jones

 

I point this out because, justifiably, a lot of angst is due to how the defense finished the year, and then ended with another feckless performance against an elite offense. 
 

Admittedly, the age of our Safeties and the ability of the pass rush to be felt without Von are question marks - along with the obvious hole we’re trying to fill at MLB …

 

… but this defense, on paper, is far more talented than the one that limped to the finish line last year. 

[Riverboat Ritchie]

I thought Joe Marino for Locked in Bills (“what’s up Bills Mafia”) had a good segment on fanxiety yesterday.  MNF game opener will be a rough one but have to think they will show up. Go Bills.