Missed Draft Picks Will Catch Up

[scuba guy]

So here is my take on this topic

 

3 of my friends are Cleveland browns  fans and I believe that in the top 15 picks of the last 12 drafts they still suck. When was the last time they won a playoff game.

 

Yup and then there is Detroit o boy

[Billl]

11 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

I think Dawson Knox was part of that 219 class too. Who does KC have left from their 2019 class? Rashard Fenton and backup OG Nick Allegretti. What's their excuse for a worse draft class?

Oh I don’t know.  Maybe that Buffalo’s first pick was 9th and Kansas City’s was 56th.  May also be worth noting that they also picked Juan Thornhill and Mecole Hardman in that draft.

[Paul Costa]

In theory what your premise is makes sense. But Elam miss gets softened by Benford. Ford miss gets softened by a Bates trade. And then you have the cheat code of JA17 who people are dying to play with helps greatly. Think of all the players that took discounts to play in Buffalo 🦬 this year. Have to look at all the variables 

[The Jokeman]

2 hours ago, Billl said:

Oh I don’t know.  Maybe that Buffalo’s first pick was 9th and Kansas City’s was 56th.  May also be worth noting that they also picked Juan Thornhill and Mecole Hardman in that draft.

Wasn't Hardman a bit of a bust as wasn't he taken before DJ Metcalf and Terry McLaurin? Thornhill hasn't been a full time starter in KC to my knowledge either.

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, SCBills said:

We can probably get by with some of these misses in recent drafts due to the fact we’ve been able to cover them up with Free Agents. 
 

CIN & KC have crushed recent drafts and now they have the good problem of having to decide who to pay. 
 

The biggest issue moving forward is making sure we hit on some key guys along with maintaining strong depth via our drafts. 
 

Beane has been very good at the depth piece … not so much with the impact piece, which is why we’ve had to go out and pay for a Von Miller and Leonard Floyd this year.  Which is why we’re desperately praying that Spencer Brown makes a jump this year.  
 

He’s invested heavy in the DL via the draft, without much to show for it, while at the detriment of the OL.  
 

Let’s hope he’s steadied the ship with these FA signings and let’s also hope that Rousseau, Cook, Kincaid, Torrence, along with at least one of Benford/Elam and Bernard/Williams all show themselves to be the pillars of the next few years as cheap contracts we can build our next window upon. 
 

No more mulligans on high impact picks.  
 

Beane won’t hit on them all, but he can’t miss on most of them either… Not when Josh Allen is making 40M+ against the cap. 
 

Very well stated! Great post SC!

[Ya Digg?]

3 hours ago, SCBills said:

We can probably get by with some of these misses in recent drafts due to the fact we’ve been able to cover them up with Free Agents. 
 

CIN & KC have crushed recent drafts and now they have the good problem of having to decide who to pay. 
 

The biggest issue moving forward is making sure we hit on some key guys along with maintaining strong depth via our drafts. 
 

Beane has been very good at the depth piece … not so much with the impact piece, which is why we’ve had to go out and pay for a Von Miller and Leonard Floyd this year.  Which is why we’re desperately praying that Spencer Brown makes a jump this year.  
 

He’s invested heavy in the DL via the draft, without much to show for it, while at the detriment of the OL.  
 

Let’s hope he’s steadied the ship with these FA signings and let’s also hope that Rousseau, Cook, Kincaid, Torrence, along with at least one of Benford/Elam and Bernard/Williams all show themselves to be the pillars of the next few years as cheap contracts we can build our next window upon. 
 

No more mulligans on high impact picks.  
 

Beane won’t hit on them all, but he can’t miss on most of them either… Not when Josh Allen is making 40M+ against the cap. 
 

Honest question because I don’t actually know the answer: outside of Burrow (first overall pick after having arguably the greatest college season ever so he was a no brainer) and Chase (top WR in the draft that they only got because Burrow blew out his knee) who has Cincy drafted that has made them crush drafts? 

[ToGoGo]

“When will we hold Beane accountable.”

 

”Beane only hit on Allen and Diggs.” 
 

“Beane can’t draft in the 2nd round”. 
 

How is it possible 100 fans on this board suddenly started saying the same thing at the same time? 
 

I swear some people on this board secretly want it all torn down so they don’t have to deal with the pressure of winning and rooting for a winning organization. 

[Ga boy]

21 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Very well stated! Great post SC!

How did the GOAT coach do with his high picks???  Anybody know?  The accepted assumption is that because he had the GOAT QB, he had the luxury of getting the supporting cast.  Didn’t he place a priority of OL and DL over skilled positions.  If so, we’re hoping to win with a different formula. In addition, they usually drafted last.  Maybe PatNH can fill us in.

Edited August 31, 2023 by Ga boy

[Billl]

40 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Wasn't Hardman a bit of a bust as wasn't he taken before DJ Metcalf and Terry McLaurin? Thornhill hasn't been a full time starter in KC to my knowledge either.

That’s actually an interesting point.  Brett Veach’s “misses” that year are Mecole Hardman who was taken at pick 56 and has 18 TDs and 2200 yards in two seasons and Juan Thornhill taken at pick 63 who has 52 starts in 4 seasons (he missed 8 games his second season from an injury and was never the same) and just signed a 3 year, $21mm contract.  

 

Veach had 3 picks in the top 200 that year.  His entire draft amounted to roughly 750 points according to the draft value charts.   For the sake of comparison, Ed Oliver was taken at pick 9 (1350 points), and Cody Ford was taken at pick 38 (520 points).  Two of the three players taken by Veach after pick 200 are still on active rosters, and the third just got cut.

 

So to answer your first question, no.  Mecole Hardman at pick 56 wasn’t a bust in any sense of the word.  Cody Ford at 38 was a bust whereas Hardman was a decent but unremarkable player given his draft position.  Thornhill, much like Dawson Knox, is a pretty good player who filled a need on the cheap.  Beane decided to give Knox a $52mm contract with $31mm guaranteed, while Veach drafted Thornhill’s replacement with a late second rounder in last year’s draft.  

 

But, yeah.  DJ Metcalf and McLaurin would have been much, much better picks than Hardman.  Drafting either of them would have probably been the difference between losing the AFCCG in OT in 2021 and winning the Super Bowl.  

[Nelius]

The Epenesa inclusion is suspect. You can't really compare the 54th pick to the 7th in terms of suspected output, and while AJ hasn't exactly become a force in the division, he was certainly productive with 6.5 sacks last year in limited time. I'm actually kind of excited to see what he can do this year. That's about what you might expect from the 54th pick - relevancy and production.

 

This made me curious about what DEs were selected ahead of AJ in that draft: The list:

 

2 - Chase Young 

20 - K'Lavon Chaisson

38 - Yetur Gross-Matos

47 - Marlon Davidson

48 - Darrell Taylor

 

Wow that's far worse of a list than I expected. AJ is pretty much the clear #2 DE from that draft, the later rounds don't get any better. Now maybe you can argue that Beane should have gone elsewhere, but DE was a position of need and he ended up grabbing arguably the 2nd best prospect, sixth. That's pretty dang good GM'ing.

 

[Boatdrinks]

Okay 

[Rico]

11 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Sneaky Joe had a Tweet that was this same tone not long before this thread was made. Amazing how often that happens. Now, I'm not saying Pepe here saw it and was "inspired" but oh hey look cookies. Brb.

I thought PepeSilvia was a good troll name until I saw Sneaky Joe. 

Edited August 31, 2023 by Rico

[LABILLBACKER]

7 hours ago, Ga boy said:

How did the GOAT coach do with his high picks???  Anybody know?  The accepted assumption is that because he had the GOAT QB, he had the luxury of getting the supporting cast.  Didn’t he place a priority of OL and DL over skilled positions.  If so, we’re hoping to win with a different formula. In addition, they usually drafted last.  Maybe PatNH can fill us in.

I just want this organization to emphasize the OL more. Is that so much to ask? Other than 2020, the last 5 years our OL has been ranked either 21st, 22nd, 23rd.  We settle for mediocrity there because of Josh's ridiculous athleticism. Torrence looks very good but out OT's will become an issue. 

[The Jokeman]

6 hours ago, Billl said:

That’s actually an interesting point.  Brett Veach’s “misses” that year are Mecole Hardman who was taken at pick 56 and has 18 TDs and 2200 yards in two seasons and Juan Thornhill taken at pick 63 who has 52 starts in 4 seasons (he missed 8 games his second season from an injury and was never the same) and just signed a 3 year, $21mm contract.  

 

Veach had 3 picks in the top 200 that year.  His entire draft amounted to roughly 750 points according to the draft value charts.   For the sake of comparison, Ed Oliver was taken at pick 9 (1350 points), and Cody Ford was taken at pick 38 (520 points).  Two of the three players taken by Veach after pick 200 are still on active rosters, and the third just got cut.

 

So to answer your first question, no.  Mecole Hardman at pick 56 wasn’t a bust in any sense of the word.  Cody Ford at 38 was a bust whereas Hardman was a decent but unremarkable player given his draft position.  Thornhill, much like Dawson Knox, is a pretty good player who filled a need on the cheap.  Beane decided to give Knox a $52mm contract with $31mm guaranteed, while Veach drafted Thornhill’s replacement with a late second rounder in last year’s draft.  

 

But, yeah.  DJ Metcalf and McLaurin would have been much, much better picks than Hardman.  Drafting either of them would have probably been the difference between losing the AFCCG in OT in 2021 and winning the Super Bowl.  

Fact check, Hardmams stats are over 4 seasons and Gave Davis a 4th round pick taken one year after Hardman has better stats in 3 seasons. Thornhill missed time his 2nd and 3rd seasons but again is no longer a Chief which isn't that ultimate topic of discussion? 

[Billl]

2 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

Fact check, Hardmams stats are over 4 seasons and Gave Davis a 4th round pick taken one year after Hardman has better stats in 3 seasons. Thornhill missed time his 2nd and 3rd seasons but again is no longer a Chief which isn't that ultimate topic of discussion? 

Gabe is a better player than Hardman, sure.  Davis is probably one of the five best players Beane has ever drafted whereas Hardman may not make Veach’s top 20.  Not sure how it’s relevant to compare picks from different seasons given that your question that prompted this discussion was a comparison of the Bills 2019 draft versus the Chiefs 2019 draft, though.

 

It’s true that Thornhill is no longer a Chief.  You initially mentioned Rashad Fenton who is also no longer a Chief, so one of us is a little confused.  Either way, it’s certainly not the ultimate topic of discussion.  Thornhill was a solid 4 year starter on a team that hosted the AFCCG each of those years and won 2 championships.  When it was time for him to get a big contract, Veach had already drafted his replacement a year prior.  Continuously replacing existing players with younger and cheaper players in the draft is the topic of the discussion.  That’s why Kansas City has no defensive players over the age of 30 and only a few on offense.  Young, elite, and cheap.  You’d better be at least 2 of the 3, or you get replaced with someone who is.

[QLBillsFan]

But all the other teams hit 💯 on all draft picks 🧐🤓

[The Jokeman]

14 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

But all the other teams hit 💯 on all draft picks 🧐🤓

They don't and that was my point about KC's 2019 draft.

20 minutes ago, Billl said:

Gabe is a better player than Hardman, sure.  Davis is probably one of the five best players Beane has ever drafted whereas Hardman may not make Veach’s top 20.  Not sure how it’s relevant to compare picks from different seasons given that your question that prompted this discussion was a comparison of the Bills 2019 draft versus the Chiefs 2019 draft, though.

 

It’s true that Thornhill is no longer a Chief.  You initially mentioned Rashad Fenton who is also no longer a Chief, so one of us is a little confused.  Either way, it’s certainly not the ultimate topic of discussion.  Thornhill was a solid 4 year starter on a team that hosted the AFCCG each of those years and won 2 championships.  When it was time for him to get a big contract, Veach had already drafted his replacement a year prior.  Continuously replacing existing players with younger and cheaper players in the draft is the topic of the discussion.  That’s why Kansas City has no defensive players over the age of 30 and only a few on offense.  Young, elite, and cheap.  You’d better be at least 2 of the 3, or you get replaced with someone who is.

TBH I forgot Fenton moved on from KC, so I guess they have 1 player left from their 2019 draft? a backup OG and people want to criticize Beane's poor drafting? 

[oldmanfan]

10 hours ago, ToGoGo said:

“When will we hold Beane accountable.”

 

”Beane only hit on Allen and Diggs.” 
 

“Beane can’t draft in the 2nd round”. 
 

How is it possible 100 fans on this board suddenly started saying the same thing at the same time? 
 

I swear some people on this board secretly want it all torn down so they don’t have to deal with the pressure of winning and rooting for a winning organization. 

There are people on this board who want the Bills to lose so they can brag and say I told you so.

[Dunkirk Donski]

Beane makes up for missed draft picks on the practice squad

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

18 hours ago, PepeSilvia said:

When Ed Oliver is your only contributing player from the 2019 draft that’s a problem.

 

those should be your core guys who you build around and not bringing free agents or looking for replacements 4 going on 5 seasons later

 

I really thought we'd grab metcalf in the second.  Just felt like something an ascending team would do - grab a big bodied downfield WR for our big armed QB.  Especially considering zay jones had been a disappointment to that point (we traded him mid-season so clearly he wasn't someone likely considered a future piece).  

1 hour ago, The Jokeman said:

They don't and that was my point about KC's 2019 draft.

TBH I forgot Fenton moved on from KC, so I guess they have 1 player left from their 2019 draft? a backup OG and people want to criticize Beane's poor drafting? 

 

Veach hit pretty well in 2021, and 2022 looks good too.  2020 doesn't look bad even if CEH was probably a wasted pick in the first.  

 

They also spent firsts the last 2 years on pass rushers.  So i think thats the same line of thinking as beane in that... you need some pass rushers on rookie deals because they rotate a decent amount, and its the only way to keep the costs down at the position.