I Am Not Optimistic Going Into This Season

[longtimebillsfan]

5 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Suck it up, Buttercup.   As a long time Bills fan, I survived the Bills struggling to win 2 games all season long.  I survived 0-for-the-1970s.  I survived HCs who were so incompetent that the players mutinied (Hank Bullough) and HCs whose aim was not to lose by too much (Dick Jauron).   I survived a #1 overall pick who refused to play for the Bills (Tom Cousineau).   I survived watching players the Bills developed into stars leave for other teams over and over and over again.  I survived a football organization that that put profits over winning for a decade. 

 

I'll worry about the wheels falling off the Bills' juggernaut when I actually see the wheels coming falling off.

I am right there with you.

 

My fandom began in 1963.  

[MJS]

5 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

That is not true. Look at the advanced stats—the passer rating against Edmunds last year in passes thrown his way was 69.9, which is below the proverbial Mendoza line. Kirksey’s stat was 90.1 and three years ago it was 155.8 — which is a perfect rating in the NFL qb rating system.

 

Bottom line: stay away from the shiny object of counting stats. There is a tackle on every play that isn’t a TD play, and someone has to make the tackles — just like someone on the worst NBA team averages 20+ points because even the worst NBA teams average 90+ points a game (and someone has to score those points).  Kirksey was cut from a truly horrible team for a reason and Edmunds got paid a TON of money for a reason, and these decisions were made by people who are far more informed than message-board warrior fans.

 

That said, I’m more than willing to give Kirksey the benefit of the doubt. But if you can’t pass cover as a LB, you are a liability who*will* be exploited.

A perfect passer rating is 158.3, actually.

[Dibs]

15 hours ago, longtimebillsfan said:

Please talk me off the ledge.

 

I could see this season with the Bills going 2-2 in their first four games.

 

The Jets will go into their home opener sky high.

 

We should be able to handle the Raiders and Commanders. 

 

The Dolphins game could go either way.  At least the game is in OP.

 

I just think that our team is weaker than last year.

 

I could realistically see the Bills missing the playoffs this year.

 

With all the pundants saying the Bills window is closing, I am starting to think that Josh may never get us to the Lombardi trophy.

 

Your an idiot.

[BuffaninSarasota]

Beware the pundants

[BIGFOOTspaceman]

4 minutes ago, BuffaninSarasota said:

Beware the pundants

Except Nick Wright.....He's the only one dripping with integrity 🙄

[HopelessNJBuffaloFan]

Although i am not in that boat of omg doom and gloom, the division has gotten better along with us and it is not going to be a cake walk to win a division title. If our defense can step up and our offensive and defensive lines do their jobs we will be ok. If we cannot stop the run or we lose the trench battles week after week, this team can quickly turn into a hot mess if they cannot adjust. I honestly do not want to hear about other teams o-lines being trash as they were last year and we did nothing against them. That has to change this year. I am psyched to see the offense with Cook and a 2 tight end set. That should be a blast to watch!!

[ddaryl]

11 hours ago, maddenboy said:

which means you are also not optimistic.

 

its like saying "in a normal year, i could tell you right now.  But this year . . . ."

 

its like saying "i might become optimistic at some point"

 

 

yes... I have concerns which can only be allieivated with watching them play and seeing how they perform against tough competition

I'm also not pessimistic just the same. 

Edited August 31, 2023 by ddaryl

[thurst44]

8 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I would argue that once Kirksey is inserted, we will be just as strong as middle linebacker as we have been in previous years
 

Kirkseys numbers last year are better than Tremaine Edmunds numbers last year and that was Tremaine’s best year

I love the Kirksey signing, and it assuages the last worry I have. It means we at least have someone experienced in the mix for MLB. I'm guessing Bernard will still play there week 1 and if Bernard proves most of us (including me) wrong, all the better. If not, we have an option of a player with experience to hold down the center and with all the all-pros around him, that may be all we need. He's also a leader (like Edmunds) and perhaps could both be a bridge to Dorian Williams taking over the position and someone who helps him learn the ins and outs, if that's the path. There's instantly more options.

 

However, Dave McBride upthread says it well. When you actually look beyond tackles (and even there, it's pretty close if you consider Edmunds missed 4 games with injury). Edmunds has become one of the best coverage LBs in the league and had an astonishing 1(?!) missed tackle last year. That said, they decided not to extend him for a reason. In any case, both the DB and DL rooms got considerably deeper, and playing next to an all-pro LB, a competent, experienced MLB with leadership qualities may be all they need to have one of the top 5 defenses in the NFL again, if not the best.

Edited August 31, 2023 by thurst44

[Royale with Cheese]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Good question. I don't know whether he qualifies as not being talked about but I feel really good on James Cook. Been a while since the Bills had some legit speed at running back. I think he looks more decisive in pre-season and the guard play should hopefully open up more holes. 

 

I have James Cook as well.  I have him in my bold predictions making an All Pro team.  

 

 

[thurst44]

6 hours ago, BigDingus said:

I know a lot of people just focus on what the Bills did to upgrade things, but seem to forget every other team in the league did so as well. 

 

Did kind of fixing a couple OL spots & drafting Kincaid change the offense THAT much? Did losing Edmunds hurt us more than other moves on the D side? 

 

And how will the D look with McDermott calling the shots? He may be significantly better or worse than Frazier... We don't know. 

 

I think they regress a little bit, but not a huge drop. 11-12 wins if they stay mostly healthy

They were also well ahead of the Dolphins and Jets at the end of the season, both of whom finished on long losing streaks except for the game they played each other. Also, let's look at the "upgrades": Jets added a legendary QB who barely seems to want to be there (yet the press is stuck on the Diggs repeating record) and a productive RB who might pair well with Hall or they might have diminishing returns. After that it's players like Mecole Hardman, who could never reach his full potential with Mahomes throwing to him, Quinton Jefferson, a solid contributor who is a bit better than when we practically ran him out of town, and a bunch of meh receivers. The Dolphins have added Jalen Ramsey, who was mortal last year and who Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs have practically owned. Beyond that, it's Mike White, Braxton Berrios, Malik Reed (solid role player), Eli Apple {?!}

[HOUSE]

You are suffering from the Cincinnati game  blues, the whole board is infected.  You will be fine in November 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, thurst44 said:

They were also well ahead of the Dolphins and Jets at the end of the season, both of whom finished on long losing streaks except for the game they played each other. Also, let's look at the "upgrades": Jets added a legendary QB who barely seems to want to be there (yet the press is stuck on the Diggs repeating record) and a productive RB who might pair well with Hall or they might have diminishing returns. After that it's players like Mecole Hardman, who could never reach his full potential with Mahomes throwing to him, Quinton Jefferson, a solid contributor who is a bit better than when we practically ran him out of town, and a bunch of meh receivers. The Dolphins have added Jalen Ramsey, who was mortal last year and who Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs have practically owned. Beyond that, it's Mike White, Braxton Berrios, Malik Reed (solid role player), Eli Apple {?!}

And Ramsey is hurt.

[whorlnut]

We have a way more balanced roster than last year when we were SB favorites. How anyone can be pessimistic for this season compared to last is beyond me. 

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

We have a way more balanced roster than last year when we were SB favorites. How anyone can be pessimistic for this season compared to last is beyond me. 

Because we have drama queens around here.  The OP talks about being a fan since 1963.  I’ve been a fan since 1960.  I still hold the memories of the AFL championships near to my heart.  I lived through the horrors of the late 60’s-early 70’s and the late 70’s-early 80’s.  I had the pleasure of watching the Juice and the Super Bowl era teams, and have watched the ups and downs in the 2000’s.  I am excited to watch this year - with guys like Josh and Diggs and Miller and Milano we have as good a shot as anyone.

[Ya Digg?]

6 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

We have a way more balanced roster than last year when we were SB favorites. How anyone can be pessimistic for this season compared to last is beyond me. 

Let’s be honest the team could go undefeated and win the Super Bowl and people will still complain about how the team won

[stuvian]

10 hours ago, HappyDays said:

I hate to say this but my biggest concern right now is McDermott. I think the right coach could take all the adversity that transpired last year, and comments from a lot of pundits this offseason on how we missed our window and have been passed over in the division, and use all of that to fuel a hyper focused and hungry team that never takes its foot off the gas. I'm not convinced McDermott is the one to do that though. There just hasn't been a lot of good energy emanating from the team since they walked off the field for the last time in January. I worry that the malaise from last season is still lingering and McDermott doesn't know how to snuff it out. Would love for him to prove me wrong though.

 

 

McDermott no longer has Frazier and Daboll to shield him from accountability. There appeared to be some finger pointing last season in Frazier's direction. I don't know if that's why Leslie left but it felt like internal politics. I think Frazier is a very good coach, and a well liked, credible leader. If he was thrown under the bus by Clappy, players will remember that.

 

Damar Hamlin and the Supermarket shooting should have been rallying points to inspire. Bruce Smith's speech on his love for the city and appeal for community unity was very moving. That's what leaders do.

 

Instead we wilted. 

 

The Bills are still a very good and talented football team. 

 

The Bills window is not closing but I think McDermott's is. Anything less than a Superbowl appearance will feel like failure.

 

I expect KC to have a SB hangover. The Bengals and their playoff experience are the nemesis we should focus on. There is no good reason short of an injury to Josh why we should not challenge for the AFC crown. 

[oldmanfan]

Just now, Ya Digg? said:

Let’s be honest the team could go undefeated and win the Super Bowl and people will still complain about how the team won

Not just complain but be disappointed 

[Gregg]

6 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

We have a way more balanced roster than last year when we were SB favorites. How anyone can be pessimistic for this season compared to last is beyond me. 

 

I agree with you that the Bills will be fine but...

 

1. The division is a lot harder. The Jets and Dolphins could challenge the Bills for the division now.

2. Playoff failures. Fans are getting frustrated with them highlighted of course by 13 seconds. Losing confidence in McDermott to get us over the top. 

 

I personally think the Bills will go 11-6. That should get them into the playoffs. Will it be enough for the division is anybody's guess.

 

[mjt328]

As I mentioned in another thread, the biggest issue with this team is age. 

 

On paper, the Bills roster looks more balanced than last year (when everyone was picking them to win the Super Bowl).  And despite the no-show against Cincinnati in the playoffs, this team did finish 13-3 last year... even with tons of injuries, pressure and adversity.  There are legitimate reasons this team could still be a Super Bowl contender this season.  And the people in the media picking us to finish in last place are clearly doing it for attention.

 

However, almost all of the stars on our team are pushing 30 years and/or coming off major injuries.  It would not be totally surprising if a couple of our premier guys take a step back.  Not enough Bills fans are acknowledging this.  And although this team is very deep at several positions, it would absolutely hurt if guys like Von Miller or Micah Hyde don't return to their old selves.  

 

The margins in the NFL are slim.  I can't see the Bills totally bottoming out, unless there is a significant injury at QB.  But at the same time, it's not unrealistic for them to finish behind the Jets and/or Dolphins.  Which in turn could result in us missing the playoffs.  Both teams have excellent rosters.

 

[Ramza86]

I think the defense is overrated, and it frustrates me how much money is spent on it and fail to produce when it matters.

 

Todays league is about having a high powered offense and we continue to neglect that.

 

Two big things to watch for me is:

- Can this offense finally put it together or will it be the same crap with Josh running for his life AGAIN.

- Can the defense stay healthy and actually dominate.