Beanes drafts rate very highly

[Royale with Cheese]

9 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

I knew it was around starting games…..

 

 

Not alot of statistically valid methods exist and I’m not counting this as one of them. Plenty of reasons exist why a draft pick could start. The team can be poorly assembled, lacking talent in key areas. They could be more committed to starting draft picks. 
 

It’s pretty obvious ranking Beane 2nd doesn’t exactly pass the sniff test. At the same time ranking him near last as some would have you believe doesn’t jive either. 

 

 

I think you can determine if a player is quality or not after 5 years right?  This isn't who starts as rookies, who ends up being a regular starter over an 80 period. 

 

"For simplicity, and with more time I would like to build a larger sample size, I looked at all players drafted in the 2010 draft, and gauged what percentage of games over those five years (a max of 80 games) have players started.  The sample size here of 210 players produced these results:"

 

 

Here's one over a 10 year period.

 

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

 

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL  (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

Edited September 1, 2023 by Royale with Cheese

[JerseyBills]

Men lie. Women lie. Numbers don't 

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I think you can determine if a player is quality or not after 5 years right?  This isn't who starts as rookies, who ends up being a regular starter after 80 games. 

 

"For simplicity, and with more time I would like to build a larger sample size, I looked at all players drafted in the 2010 draft, and gauged what percentage of games over those five years (a max of 80 games) have players started.  The sample size here of 210 players produced these results:"

 

 

Here's one over a 10 year period.

 

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

 

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL  (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

That’s a pretty neat summary. In short it says your chances of finding a consistent starter are:

 

Round 1: Two out of three

Round 2: 50:50

Round 3: One out of three

Round 4: One out of four 

Round 5: One out of six

Round 6 and 7: Good luck

[Mikie2times]

3 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

Men lie. Women lie. Numbers don't 

I mean, Beane is great at building above average competition at nearly every position. I think when people are upset at his drafting, it’s not that he can’t find contributors. It’s that we can’t find difference makers. 

[Shanahan's Horseshoe]

3 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

Men lie. Women lie. Numbers don't 

That’s great that he can identify JAGS that never play and let the good one like Hodgins go.  
Maybe he should have his scouts focus more on the early rounds (outside of this year which was his best year) 

[JerseyBills]

27 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I mean, Beane is great at building above average competition at nearly every position. I think when people are upset at his drafting, it’s not that he can’t find contributors. It’s that we can’t find difference makers. 

I guess. At the same time we've hadva top 3-5 o and D for 3 years straight now. I expect Groot,Floyd,Oliver, Cook,Kincaid,Ocyrus to turn into difference makers, which would be awesome 

11 minutes ago, Shanahan's Horseshoe said:

That’s great that he can identify JAGS that never play and let the good one like Hodgins go.  
Maybe he should have his scouts focus more on the early rounds (outside of this year which was his best year) 

Hodgins was on the PS for months so 31 Gms agreed w Beane, it took a rash of wr injuries for Giants to get him mainly because the familiarity w the offense and i wish him well but think he's a JAG

[hondo in seattle]

9 hours ago, Airseven said:

The roster is declining because Beane can’t hit in the early rounds. Everything else is over-analysis.

 

I think our roster is better this year than last year.

I don't think it's the best roster in the league which is the goal.  

 

But that doesn't necessarily mean we won't win the SB.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

43 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I mean, Beane is great at building above average competition at nearly every position. I think when people are upset at his drafting, it’s not that he can’t find contributors. It’s that we can’t find difference makers. 

we need one of Ed Oliver, or Greg Ruosseau to be a difference maker. Both players are still young enough that they can turn into a top five player at their position.

 

The other thing to take into account is the bills did not have a 2020 1st round pick. That greatly lessened the chance of getting a difference maker out of that draft. But of course we used that pick to trade for a difference maker in diggs.

[finn]

Wonder if this chart factors in the mid-round picks Beane gave up to move up. E.g., for Elam, Kincaid. That fourth for Elam hurts. 

[Shanahan's Horseshoe]

48 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

 

Hodgins was on the PS for months so 31 Gms agreed w Beane, it took a rash of wr injuries for Giants to get him mainly because the familiarity w the offense and i wish him well but think he's a JAG

I don’t disagree with that but we certainly could’ve used him last year.  
Which further proves my point that Beane is superior to other GMs at picking the best JAGS 

Edited September 1, 2023 by Shanahan's Horseshoe

[JerseyBills]

7 minutes ago, Shanahan's Horseshoe said:

I don’t disagree with that but we certainly could’ve used him last year.  
Which further proves my point that Beane is superior to other GMs at picking the best JAGS 

i mean he was a day 3 pick.. Our roster has a bunch of all pros, pro bowlers. Can't be elite at every position.  We're second in win % since 2020. What more could you ask for, we're a legit SB contender man, for the 4th straight year

[Sierra Foothills]

On 8/31/2023 at 8:17 AM, RobbRiddick said:

He said in an interview earlier that he couldn't pass up the chance to play with the best QB in the league

 

I'm having a hard time believing that Buechele said that... really?

 

15 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

Damn Patriots got Matt Carroll off waivers.

 

Bears re-signed Peterman and also signed Bill Murray.  

 

Bill Murray's net worth is around $200 million... I can't believe he's padding his wealth by playing NFL football. Seems a bit greedy if you ask me.

 

On 8/30/2023 at 1:41 PM, Virgil said:

This is going to sound terrible, but I'm so afraid of him going off this year since he's due for a new contract.  

 

The guys who find a way to finally put it all together in the last year drives me nuts

 

That's a funny way of looking at the Gabriel Davis situation. I'm thinking you've evolved on this.

 

22 hours ago, PBF81 said:

FWIW, Brandon Beane’s Draft Picks other than Allen Listed as Starters to Open the Season

 

Gabe Davis, 2020, 4th Round

Cyress O’Torrence, 2023, 2nd Round

Spencer Brown, 2021, 3rd Round

Dawson Knox, 2019, 3rd Round

James Cook, 2022, 2nd Round

 

Greg Rousseau, 2021, 1st Round

Ed Oliver, 2019, 1st Round

Terrell Bernard, 2022, 3rd Round

Kaiir Elam, 2022, 1st Round

Taron Johnson, 2018, 4th Round

 

Tyler Bass, 2020, 6th Round

 

 

Listing Terrell Bernard and Kaiir Elam as starters is a bit generous. Inaccurate really.

 

I'd love to see it but it hasn't happened yet.

 

 

 

[Chuck Schick]

47 minutes ago, Shanahan's Horseshoe said:

I don’t disagree with that but we certainly could’ve used him last year.  
Which further proves my point that Beane is superior to other GMs at picking the best JAGS 

I thought the whole point of the term “JAG” was because there’s no difference from one guy to the next. Now there’s a “best JAG” category??

[RobbRiddick]

1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

I'm having a hard time believing that Buechele said that... really?

 

Nah not really, I was just trying to annoy Filthyp*nis

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, JerseyBills said:

i mean he was a day 3 pick.. Our roster has a bunch of all pros, pro bowlers. Can't be elite at every position.  We're second in win % since 2020. What more could you ask for, we're a legit SB contender man, for the 4th straight year

 

Peoples expectations are insane for late round picks.  

[SoCal Deek]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Peoples expectations are insane for late round picks.  

Agreed. The numbers that I simplified above probably give an indication of why Billy B stockpiled so many of them during the Patriots run. He understood that if you only have one pick in each of the later rounds you’re not going to get a single consistent starter out of that ENTIRE bunch but once every five years or so. 

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Listing Terrell Bernard and Kaiir Elam as starters is a bit generous. Inaccurate really.

 

I'd love to see it but it hasn't happened yet.

 

As I said before, take 'em off then.  Either way, they're not good players, both depth-caliber players, simply because Bernard likely will start, and who in his place, Dodson then, says little that supports our drafts and draft strategy.  Same for CB, where Elam/Benford/Jackson are all in the starting slot there.  They simply haven't announced a starter in that spot.  So benefit of doubt to the team.  

 

With a possible development or two, the list is devoid of any impact players to date, and again, with this Draft pending.  As I said, take 'em off, what's left at that point, and not that they're impressive.  

 

That's the way to look at our draft, not by counting how many depth players make/made the team as draftees, like some do, which is ridiculous.  

 

 

Edited September 1, 2023 by PBF81