Beanes drafts rate very highly

[Augie]

4 minutes ago, jletha said:

Now do all the other teams...

 

Here is the problem, too many people think we are the only team that whiffs, but it happens all over the league. 

[Royale with Cheese]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/?sh=4409eada7495

 

1) Correlation between Draft Position and "Starter Status"

Using Pro Football Reference as a resource, I looked at all players who were classified as starters at the beginning of the 2014 season to determine what round they were drafted in upon entering the league.  Of the 595 players designated as such, the results reveal the following:

 

-          Nearly 30% of all starters were 1st round draft picks when drafted into the league;

-          Roughly 30% were taken in either the 2nd or 3rd round;

-          Roughly 26% were taken in either rounds 4 through 7;

-          Undrafted players (14%) were the 3rd most likely group to comprise 2014’s starters…only behind 1st round (30%) and 2nd round (18%) picks.

[SCBills]

Just now, Augie said:

 

Here is the problem, too many people think we are the only team that whiffs, but it happens all over the league. 

 

Which is why GM's and HC's lose their jobs...

 

We're not competing with every other team.  We're competing with the best of the best.

 

During this time, the Chiefs and Bengals crushed their drafts, especially when it comes to impact players.  We built some good depth and hit on some really good players, but Beane whiffed on the impact picks (at least thus far.. maybe Rousseau becomes that).  

 

To provide some optimism.. Cook, KIncaid and Torrence may change the narrative, whereas the Chiefs recent two drafts feel like prior Bills drafts. 

[stevewin]

7 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/?sh=4409eada7495

 

1) Correlation between Draft Position and "Starter Status"

Using Pro Football Reference as a resource, I looked at all players who were classified as starters at the beginning of the 2014 season to determine what round they were drafted in upon entering the league.  Of the 595 players designated as such, the results reveal the following:

 

-          Nearly 30% of all starters were 1st round draft picks when drafted into the league;

-          Roughly 30% were taken in either the 2nd or 3rd round;

-          Roughly 26% were taken in either rounds 4 through 7;

-          Undrafted players (14%) were the 3rd most likely group to comprise 2014’s starters…only behind 1st round (30%) and 2nd round (18%) picks.

In some ways this would penalize good teams and reward crappy teams who would be starting players on crappy rosters, no?

[julian]

So much luck involved, anyone could execute a draft with only the help of the internet and be no more likely to succeed or fail than anyone else.

 

 Excluding resources to provide sufficient character/background checks of course.

[BullBuchanan]

58 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Despite the flack he takes for round 2 and the jury still out on 22 and 23 drafts his 18-21 drafts were actually quite good. 
Man the 49ers late in the draft geez talk about hitting home runs. 
 

 

Yea, really wonderful drafting in 2021...
 

[Kmart128]

9 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Which is why GM's and HC's lose their jobs...

 

We're not competing with every other team.  We're competing with the best of the best.

 

During this time, the Chiefs and Bengals crushed their drafts, especially when it comes to impact players.  We built some good depth and hit on some really good players, but Beane whiffed on the impact picks (at least thus far.. maybe Rousseau becomes that).  

 

To provide some optimism.. Cook, KIncaid and Torrence may change the narrative, whereas the Chiefs recent two drafts feel like prior Bills drafts. 

 

Yeah Chiefs absolutely killed it with Clyde Edwards Helaire who lost his starting job. And the backup RB job. No matter how good a team is they all have their fair share of players thay didnt pan out like they expected to. Jackson Carman from the Bengals cant win a starting job. He was drafted 46th overall.... all teams miss on players in the draft. And its even harder to draft when you are the best of the best cause you pick at the backend of each round.

 

Fact of the matter is that most of the Bills draft selections are still on NFL rosters. Which is what you want to be successful. 

[Royale with Cheese]

7 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Which is why GM's and HC's lose their jobs...

 

We're not competing with every other team.  We're competing with the best of the best.

 

During this time, the Chiefs and Bengals crushed their drafts, especially when it comes to impact players.  We built some good depth and hit on some really good players, but Beane whiffed on the impact picks (at least thus far.. maybe Rousseau becomes that).  

 

To provide some optimism.. Cook, KIncaid and Torrence may change the narrative, whereas the Chiefs recent two drafts feel like prior Bills drafts. 

 

Well you have to have context too.

 

They hit on Burrow and Chase with the #1 and #5 overall draft pick.  We haven't had that high of a draft pick with Beane accept the trade up for Allen at #7 in 2018.

You expect to get an elite impact player in the top 5. 

 

Here's the 1st pick order between both teams in the last 3 years.

 

The Bengals last 3 drafts....#35, #5 and #1.

 

Our last 3 drafts....#54, #30 and #23.

 

I didn't count this year for any team because they haven't played yet.

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, Kmart128 said:

 

Yeah Chiefs absolutely killed it with Clyde Edwards Helaire who lost his starting job. And the backup RB job. No matter how good a team is they all have their fair share of players thay didnt pan out like they expected to. Jackson Carman from the Bengals cant win a starting job. He was drafted 46th overall.... all teams miss on players in the draft. And its even harder to draft when you are the best of the best cause you pick at the backend of each round.

 

Fact of the matter is that most of the Bills draft selections are still on NFL rosters. Which is what you want to be successful. 

 

Of course, even the best drafting teams have misses... and I'm not very high on the Chiefs last two drafts tbh.

 

That said, they hit on two elite OL.  Bengals hit on an elite WR. 

 

If one of Rousseau, Epenesa or Boogie became an elite pass rusher.. we would all forgive Beane for missing (or hitting a single/double) on the other two.  That hasn't happened...

 

If it did, our DL wouldn't have been a weakness when Von went down.  

 

FYI:  I do believe Rousseau can become elite, but he was always a project.

 

 

[FilthyBeast]

52 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

There’s a reason we’re a top 5 team consistently. We have great overall team depth and an elite QB/WR combo. 
 

Beane hasn’t drafted an impact player other than Allen. Allen being a QB cancels out a lot of problems. A lot of average. But a lot of average with elite QB creates a good team.

 

The issue still remains though that if you subtract JA17 from the equation, both Beane and McD are no different that every other failed GM/HC that's come through Buffalo since 2000 and that's what a lot of Bills mafia doesn't seem to understand or want to acknowledge.

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Yea, really wonderful drafting in 2021...
 

Two multi year starters. So yes wonderful

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Two multi year starters. So yes wonderful

One of which we have been trying to replace since he got here and is universally considered the weak link in his entire position group. We're also still waiting for Rousseau to reach potential. There's one b+ player in that draft.

Edited August 30, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[hondo in seattle]

The Basham trade caused a bit of anti-Beane hysteria that I'm glad the OP is trying to correct.

 

But I have to wonder about the methodology that ranks Beane as the NFL's third-best drafter since 2018.  It's not as nuanced as DVR, but I heard a GM once say that teams consist of jags and standouts.  It's the standouts who get you into the playoffs and to the Super Bowl.  You need enough of them, and you need them at the right positions.  

 

I'm a simple guy.  I like his two-bucket approach.  And in my mind, here are our standouts:

 

Allen (draft - Beane)

Diggs (trade)

Poyer (FA)

Hyde (FA)

White (draft - Whaley)

Milano (draft - Whaley)

Miller (FA).

 

The rest of the roster is a bunch of jags of various flavors.  I guess you could argue, based on the DVR data, that our jags are incrementally better than the jags on other teams.  And we do have to give Beane credit for the free agent acquisitions.  Overall, he has built a nice roster.  But I do wish he'd find more playmakers in the draft.  Only one impact player in six years doesn't get us into the big game.  

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, hondo in seattle said:

The Basham trade caused a bit of anti-Beane hysteria that I'm glad the OP is trying to correct.

 

But I have to wonder about the methodology that ranks Beane as the NFL's third-best drafter since 2018.  It's not as nuanced as DVR, but I heard a GM once say that teams consist of jags and standouts.  It's the standouts who get you into the playoffs and to the Super Bowl.  You need enough of them, and you need them at the right positions.  

 

I'm a simple guy.  I like his two-bucket approach.  And in my mind, here are our standouts:

 

Allen (draft - Beane)

Diggs (trade)

Poyer (FA)

Hyde (FA)

White (draft - Whaley)

Milano (draft - Whaley)

Miller (FA).

 

The rest of the roster is a bunch of jags of various flavors.  I guess you could argue, based on the DVR data, that our jags are incrementally better than the jags on other teams.  And we do have to give Beane credit for the free agent acquisitions.  Overall, he has built a nice roster.  But I do wish he'd find more playmakers in the draft.  Only one impact player in six years doesn't get us into the big game.  

Worth mentioning that Whaley signed both Poyer and Hyde too. So Beane is really responsible for 3 players.

[oldmanfan]

Just now, BullBuchanan said:

One of which we have been trying to replace since he got here. We're also still waiting for Rousseau to reach potential. There's one b+ player in that draft.

No.  YOU have been trying to replace him, not the Bills.  Plus Hamlin and Wildgoose are on rosters.  Plus Doyle who keeps getting hurt unfortunately.

[BADOLBILZ]

54 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

There’s a reason we’re a top 5 team consistently. We have great overall team depth and an elite QB/WR combo. 
 

Beane hasn’t drafted an impact player other than Allen. Allen being a QB cancels out a lot of problems. A lot of average. But a lot of average with elite QB creates a good team.

 

 

Yep but it's that lack of impact players that has prevented them from either being a #1 seed or from reaching the SB.

 

They had a nice setup in 2021 blowing up a wounded Chiefs defense and with very beatable Cinci and LA Rams teams on the playoff horizon...........but the bar got raised at the top of the league last year and seems to set maybe even a little higher.

 

Probably need Allen to elevate his game as a pocket QB even further and guys like Kincaid and Rousseau to really turn into impact players to expect to reach and/or win a SB.

[balln]

1 hour ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Despite the flack he takes for round 2 and the jury still out on 22 and 23 drafts his 18-21 drafts were actually quite good. 
Man the 49ers late in the draft geez talk about hitting home runs. 
 

 

What a nonsense stat cowboys and wash are up there 

[BullBuchanan]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

No.  YOU have been trying to replace him, not the Bills.  Plus Hamlin and Wildgoose are on rosters.  Plus Doyle who keeps getting hurt unfortunately.

If you're going to stan for Spencer Brown, I think you're going to be in a lonely club around here. He's absolutely terrible.

[CheshireCT]

7 minutes ago, Kmart128 said:

 

Yeah Chiefs absolutely killed it with Clyde Edwards Helaire who lost his starting job. And the backup RB job. No matter how good a team is they all have their fair share of players thay didnt pan out like they expected to. Jackson Carman from the Bengals cant win a starting job. He was drafted 46th overall.... all teams miss on players in the draft. And its even harder to draft when you are the best of the best cause you pick at the backend of each round.

 

Fact of the matter is that most of the Bills draft selections are still on NFL rosters. Which is what you want to be successful. 

Totally. I remember having a lot of great drafts when we sucked and drafted high.

 

Meanwhile when fans talk about the draft, they seem to forget that HUMAN BEINGS are drafted, not robots. There are infinite variables with humans. And for a player to become a game changing type player, all those variables have to go right. Drafting is an educated guess, there’s no certainty.

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

There’s a reason we’re a top 5 team consistently. We have great overall team depth and an elite QB/WR combo. 
 

Beane hasn’t drafted an impact player other than Allen. Allen being a QB cancels out a lot of problems. A lot of average. But a lot of average with elite QB creates a good team.

I remember Bill Polian saying QB. RDE, LT are the main cornerstones to a team. I think a top CB and WR are now included.  Beane needs to hit in the draft on DE (unless Groot works out) WR, CB and LT in the next few years.