Speculation and discussion on Bills final roster cuts

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, folz said:

 

What on Earth makes you think that? 

 

Last year, the Bills defense was 1st in yards against, 2nd in points against, and 5th in takeaways, despite all of the injuries. The only loss of any significance this year is Tremaine Edmunds (and now Boogie if you can even count him).

 

Additions: Leonard Flyod, Poona Ford, Dorian Williams, Taylor Rapp.

 

Plus you could include Micah Hyde as an addition from last year (since he only played 2 games last season), Von Miller and Jordan Philips both missed 8 games last year, Tredavious didn't play until weeks 11/12 and still wasn't fully back from his knee injury yet, Poyer was playing through multiple severe injuries all year.

 

And our 3 young corners have another year under their belts now (for 11 games last year we were starting Dane and one of the rookies...now we only need 1 of these three guys to be starting at any time).

 

And McDermott looks to call a more aggressive defense than Frasier did.

 

Do you really think losing Tremaine Edmunds brings us from being a top 2 defense to trash? Especially with everything else mentioned above? I think you'd have a hard time convincing me that we won't actually be a better defense this year than we were last season. Besides, I don't think they wanted a Tremaine replacement anyhow. They are obviously going in a different direction with that position (they didn't just forget it). 

6th in yards

[Ethan in Cleveland]

No real surprise cuts this year. 

Most on this board probably predicted 50 of the 53.

Most thought either Basham or AJE would get traded. 

I think many had Q making it as a backup OT especially after Doyle went down again. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

5 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

No real surprise cuts this year. 

Most on this board probably predicted 50 of the 53.

Most thought either Basham or AJE would get traded. 

I think many had Q making it as a backup OT especially after Doyle went down again. 

Ponna Ford not getting cut is a surprise to me.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

57 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Ponna Ford not getting cut is a surprise to me.

I liked the signing but agree have not seen much in preseason yet. Will be interesting to see if he or Phillips gets to dress. 

[uninja]

6 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

They always seem to show up in huge moments in the playoffs though…the regular season ranking doesn’t always tell the whole story. 
 

And even so, cincy was 6th in points allowed per game last year in the regular season and kc is usually hovering around the top 10. 2022 they were 8th and 2021 they were 11th.  
 

The rams are the only other Super Bowl winner with a defense outside the top 10 in points allowed per game in the last 10 years.  Both those rams and chiefs Super Bowl teams got huge sacks when they needed them though, chiefs were second in sacks in 2023 and the rams were third in 2022.  

Breakdown of scoring defenses for Super Bowl winners is:

Chiefs    16th

rams      16th

Bucs      8th

Chiefs    8th

Pats       7th

Eagles   4th

Pats       1st

Broncos 1st

Pats       8th(should’ve been Seahawks 1st lol)

Seahawks 1st

 

Of the four teams that made it to the conference finals last year, three of them were top 10 scoring defenses.  6 of the top 7 made the playoffs…only one that didn’t was the jets 

defensive football is still very much alive, but things are starting to shift to who can come up with those big sacks to get a clutch stop when they need one the last few years.  That’s really the only way to slow down the Allen/hurts/mahomes/burrow’s of the league.  The bills just haven’t been making that one big defensive play against the bengals or chiefs in the playoffs.  

 

 

 

That's exactly right, you don't need the best defense but it has to show up when it matters. Chiefs and Bengals may have not had the best defense but when they needed a play to keep their hopes alive someone on that defense stepped up.

 

You can have the best defense in the league, but it means nothing if it turns into a pumpkin in the biggest moments.

[newcam2012]

6 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

They always seem to show up in huge moments in the playoffs though…the regular season ranking doesn’t always tell the whole story. 
 

And even so, cincy was 6th in points allowed per game last year in the regular season and kc is usually hovering around the top 10. 2022 they were 8th and 2021 they were 11th.  
 

The rams are the only other Super Bowl winner with a defense outside the top 10 in points allowed per game in the last 10 years.  Both those rams and chiefs Super Bowl teams got huge sacks when they needed them though, chiefs were second in sacks in 2023 and the rams were third in 2022.  

Breakdown of scoring defenses for Super Bowl winners is:

Chiefs    16th

rams      16th

Bucs      8th

Chiefs    8th

Pats       7th

Eagles   4th

Pats       1st

Broncos 1st

Pats       8th(should’ve been Seahawks 1st lol)

Seahawks 1st

 

Of the four teams that made it to the conference finals last year, three of them were top 10 scoring defenses.  6 of the top 7 made the playoffs…only one that didn’t was the jets 

defensive football is still very much alive, but things are starting to shift to who can come up with those big sacks to get a clutch stop when they need one the last few years.  That’s really the only way to slow down the Allen/hurts/mahomes/burrow’s of the league.  The bills just haven’t been making that one big defensive play against the bengals or chiefs in the playoffs.  

 

 

Not to knit pick. No way was that Bengal game one big defensive play away from winning the game. More like 50. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

30 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

I liked the signing but agree have not seen much in preseason yet. Will be interesting to see if he or Phillips gets to dress. 

You can say the same for Llyod 🤷🏻‍♂️

[BearNorth]

2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

The defense was a tire fire the last two years to end their seasons. 

Last year by the end of the season, Miller and Hyde were on IR.  Poyer was nicked up all year, and Milano at times.  I think any defense who is has missing/diminished stars will struggle.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

11 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

Neal is horrible in coverage. I get his value on ST but with the rules making the return game lesser and lesser (see KO fair catch rule) I don't think ST coverage guys should stick around more then 4 years if don't contribute elsewhere.

Neal looked better on D this preseason, FWIW. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

I liked the signing but agree have not seen much in preseason yet. Will be interesting to see if he or Phillips gets to dress. 

I would sit Phillips just like Von for the first 4 games. We need both 100% from November through the Superbowl.

[BearNorth]

3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Agree, but what’s the excuse the year before? And the year before that? 
 

Coaching perhaps?

 

It should be noted in the Chiefs 13 second game, Tre White was on IR, does the Hill TD happen if he's available?

 

 

[Beck Water]

9 hours ago, folz said:

Even if we had to start Dodson all year, I just don't think it is going to be that big of a drop off (compared to what we've gained or got back in other areas). Do you not think Dodson could get 102 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT if he started all year? That's all he'd need to match Tremaine's 2022 stats. But I think the real plan is to have the smaller, faster backers, who are all good in coverage and can all tackle well (Milano, Bernard, Williams, Spector) play more (and you can probably include Siran/Rapp 😁 in that equation too) ...and then your Dodsons and Kleins (if he's signed back) are there for more obvious run-heavy teams or game situations. We need to finally be able to stop those quick slants and screens of KC, Miami, Cinci. Height over the middle doesn't help if they can just complete the passes in front of you and you can't corral those guys.

 

I think we need to stop thinking about the position as some traditional middle linebacker spot (we aren't a traditional 4-3 or 3-4 defense). We need to see it more like LB left and LB right. I think they were hoping that Bernard would grab the spot, maybe with Williams to add in more as the season wore on. But Williams is best served behind Milano right now, and Bernard's injury pushed Dodson forward for the time being (obviously Spector wasn't ready for a promotion).

 

 

I agree with your last paragraph.  I agree that the plan is to have smaller backers who are good in coverage and can tackle well.  I just don't think we have a good execution strategy for that plan.

 

I think the problem is when you include Bernard, Williams, and Spector in that description.  I don't think Williams and Spector are good in coverage - maybe they'll develop.  Bernard may understand coverage, but so far he seems slow to get there, and he doesn't thump when tackling so he gets dragged 5 yds.  Dodson is poor in pass coverage and while he can read the run and thump, he can also get sucked in by play action.

 

I think there's going to be a significant drop off.

 

Just my opinion.

22 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Last year by the end of the season, Miller and Hyde were on IR.  Poyer was nicked up all year, and Milano at times.  I think any defense who is has missing/diminished stars will struggle.

 

Milano was pretty healthy.  But you're missing Daquan Jones (calf, missed Bengals playoff game), Oliver (shoulder, wearing brace) Phillilps (shoulder, wearing brace) and Settle (calf injury early in season, reportedly hampered him all year).  Rousseau was out for 3 games mid-season, and didn't look the same afterwards. 

 

Then of course there's the obvious, that Hamlin was our 2nd string safety and he went out for the last 5 games, so we were on our 3rd string at safety.

[The Frankish Reich]

7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

6th in yards

Bend but don't break!

Leslie Frazier's philosophy. Or was in Sean McDermott? We'll find out.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

You can say the same for Llyod 🤷🏻‍♂️

Assume you mean Floyd.  He's a veteran and knows preseason is worthless.  He will show up when it matters. 

[4merper4mer]

2 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Ponna Ford not getting cut is a surprise to me.

What?

[Ethan in Cleveland]

44 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I would sit Phillips just like Von for the first 4 games. We need both 100% from November through the Superbowl.

I'd be fine if Ford and Phillips rotated from game to game to figure out who is playing better and keep them fresh for the playoffs.

 

I hope they give Johnathan a real shot to beat out Lawson or Epenesa in the four games while Miller is on PUP.  If they don't dress him they should have just cut him and gone with an extra interior OL or WR.

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, uninja said:

 

That's exactly right, you don't need the best defense but it has to show up when it matters. Chiefs and Bengals may have not had the best defense but when they needed a play to keep their hopes alive someone on that defense stepped up.

 

You can have the best defense in the league, but it means nothing if it turns into a pumpkin in the biggest moments.

I agree. Defensively in the playoffs we just haven't gotten that key sack or int in crunch time.  Other than Taron's pic6 it's been basically crickets playoff time.

[jletha]

8 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I agree. Defensively in the playoffs we just haven't gotten that key sack or int in crunch time.  Other than Taron's pic6 it's been basically crickets playoff time.

To me the nail in the coffin was that the Bengals were starting 3 backups or backups-of-backups on the O-line still bullied our line and Burrow dices us up. It wasnt even a stalemate, we had nothing. And then the Chiefs, who were statistically a worse defense, handled them. It doesnt matter about regular season stats its about handling the team in the moment and having individual game wreckers.

[blacklabel]

Is the practice squad put together later today? Has to be after all the waivers clear, right? 

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, jletha said:

To me the nail in the coffin was that the Bengals were starting 3 backups or backups-of-backups on the O-line still bullied our line and Burrow dices us up. It wasnt even a stalemate, we had nothing. And then the Chiefs, who were statistically a worse defense, handled them. It doesnt matter about regular season stats its about handling the team in the moment and having individual game wreckers.

 

Chiefs DL didn't handle them.  Chris Jones handled them.  He was a gamewrecker, and without him, the Chiefs DL would've looked a lot like ours.

 

....especially if they inexplicably played off coverage all game.