Good Night / Bad Night - Pre-season game 3

[MasterStrategist]

36 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Neal with back to back great performances.  He has looked really confident, explosive and decisive out there. May challenge Rapp to keep the big nickel role he has been playing past 2 years

Neal has looked much improved and been flying all over the field.  His biggest issue always seems to be holding/getting too handsy, with TEs and WRs.

 

If that's mostly fixed, this should FINALLY be the year we roll with a primary dime defense on 3rd downs/obvious passing downs.  

 

Or Rapp.  Both look capable, although I like Neal's speed and coverage skills better (if he decreases his penalties).

 

We need more "team speed"/atheleticism in the secondary, Neal or Rapp helps with that.  We haven't seen Bernard yet, but both guys look way better than Dodson. 

 

Hoepfully Coach has schemes ready for  dime packages, I'm talking 4 man fronts mostly 4-1-6 (not the 3-2-6 looks we've seen against Chiefs)...that can be a huge weapon to get more creative with using Milano and slot blitzes.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

See I think Gabe is a #2. But he isn't a "good" #2. He is a lower end low volume, high output guy. And as he goes into a contract year his route to improving that is to offer more in the short game. When you look at the way the short game is played one of the shorter routes that best fits his skillset is the slant.... and he dropped a ball on a slant. 

 

My post isn't saying "man Gabe Davis sucks" it is saying unless he improves in that facet he is what he is. And the early returns were not as encouraging as they could have been. 

 

 

I think we need to make a distinction between a rookie contract "necessity" WR2 and a "chosen" second contract WR2.

 

Because any team would be crazy to pay him open market money in UFA to be their WR2 (upwards of $15M aav).    

 

He just can't make enough basic, on-schedule, chain-moving plays to be a WR2 by choice..........he has to be one out of necessity like he was in Buffalo last season.

 

That's why I've settled on him being a WR3.    I gave him the slightest benefit of the doubt coming into camp but between the drops in the practice setting and the games it's clear that he just doesn't have the capacity to elevate his ball skills to the next level.

 

With Gabe it's about matchups and opportunities.........he struggles against CB1 and CB2 because he can't separate from talented CB's without 3+ seconds to do so........and doesn't make anywhere near enough plays in contested situations.

 

At WR3 he is a 100+ QB rating option for the Bills again.........which aligns with the quality of his QB.

 

Bills need Kincaid to turn into WR2 pretty early on in this season and then hopefully that attention drawn underneath will free up Gabe for later in the season. 

[GunnerBill]

53 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I think we need to make a distinction between a rookie contract "necessity" WR2 and a "chosen" second contract WR2.

 

Because any team would be crazy to pay him open market money in UFA to be their WR2 (upwards of $15M aav).    

 

He just can't make enough basic, on-schedule, chain-moving plays to be a WR2 by choice..........he has to be one out of necessity like he was in Buffalo last season.

 

That's why I've settled on him being a WR3.    I gave him the slightest benefit of the doubt coming into camp but between the drops in the practice setting and the games it's clear that he just doesn't have the capacity to elevate his ball skills to the next level.

 

With Gabe it's about matchups and opportunities.........he struggles against CB1 and CB2 because he can't separate from talented CB's without 3+ seconds to do so........and doesn't make anywhere near enough plays in contested situations.

 

At WR3 he is a 100+ QB rating option for the Bills again.........which aligns with the quality of his QB.

 

Bills need Kincaid to turn into WR2 pretty early on in this season and then hopefully that attention drawn underneath will free up Gabe for later in the season. 

 

I think someone will choose him as a WR2 when he hits FA. It won't be a contender like the Bills, but someone will.

[JerseyBills]

1 hour ago, MasterStrategist said:

Neal has looked much improved and been flying all over the field.  His biggest issue always seems to be holding/getting too handsy, with TEs and WRs.

 

If that's mostly fixed, this should FINALLY be the year we roll with a primary dime defense on 3rd downs/obvious passing downs.  

 

Or Rapp.  Both look capable, although I like Neal's speed and coverage skills better (if he decreases his penalties).

 

We need more "team speed"/atheleticism in the secondary, Neal or Rapp helps with that.  We haven't seen Bernard yet, but both guys look way better than Dodson. 

 

Hoepfully Coach has schemes ready for  dime packages, I'm talking 4 man fronts mostly 4-1-6 (not the 3-2-6 looks we've seen against Chiefs)...that can be a huge weapon to get more creative with using Milano and slot blitzes.

Ya I'd love to see more dime looks as well or even nickel with Neal or Rapp as LB

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

23 hours ago, ganesh said:

I am really concerned how the Special Teams have played in the pre-season games.  They have been terrible.   We have had wonderful special teams the past several years; But this is not looking like any of that.

True…  but maybe with that unit they mostly know the ones and just randomly throw some  bubble guys out there to see if anyone stands out. 

Also bass will put those ko’s in the stands come wk1

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

On 8/27/2023 at 12:04 PM, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Yes they have been poor this preseason but color me unconcerned.

 

As @GunnerBill mentioned at 83 players there's a combo of avoiding injuries and seeing where fringe players fit in. A lack of cohesiveness in special teams is common across the league in the preseason.

 

 

No one's mentioned how good Harty looked yesterday on his 3 punt returns. He didn't break any but you could see his fearlessness, elite agility, and vision upfield. If he has that role and stay healthy he's gonna be an excellent punt returner. He's averaged almost 10 yards per return over his career.

 

Harty also looked good from scrimmage. IF he stays healthy which is a legit concern, I'm pretty sure he's going to outproduce and outplay what Isaiah McKenzie gave us last year.

 

 

People on this board overreact to everything the Bills do.

 

I was also glad to see the resurrection of the short passing game. Contrary to belief, Josh Allen is a very accurate short thrower. He can flick his wrist and place balls horizontally very effectively. His completion percentage went down last year (adding to the myth that he's not an accurate thrower) because of the throws he was trying to make on a constant basis.

 

I still don't know if Dorsey doesn't reign Josh in enough or if Josh has too much leash or if they're both fixated on the big strike but this offense needs to use the horizontal Brady-type game more to open up the throws downfield. Overall they'd be a much more effective offense with a little more restraint.

 

 

Could be a bit of a mix of conspiracy theory and wishful thinking lol  but I think a lot of the abandoning the short throws had to do with his elbow injury.  If your accuracy is a little off a lot of those underneath throws get dicey

[balln]

3 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Neal has looked much improved and been flying all over the field.  His biggest issue always seems to be holding/getting too handsy, with TEs and WRs.

 

If that's mostly fixed, this should FINALLY be the year we roll with a primary dime defense on 3rd downs/obvious passing downs.  

 

Or Rapp.  Both look capable, although I like Neal's speed and coverage skills better (if he decreases his penalties).

 

We need more "team speed"/atheleticism in the secondary, Neal or Rapp helps with that.  We haven't seen Bernard yet, but both guys look way better than Dodson. 

 

Hoepfully Coach has schemes ready for  dime packages, I'm talking 4 man fronts mostly 4-1-6 (not the 3-2-6 looks we've seen against Chiefs)...that can be a huge weapon to get more creative with using Milano and slot blitzes.

Rapp helps ? He’s a fringe backup safety that just makes tackles. He’s slower than 4.8

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I think we need to make a distinction between a rookie contract "necessity" WR2 and a "chosen" second contract WR2.

 

Because any team would be crazy to pay him open market money in UFA to be their WR2 (upwards of $15M aav).    

 

He just can't make enough basic, on-schedule, chain-moving plays to be a WR2 by choice..........he has to be one out of necessity like he was in Buffalo last season.

 

That's why I've settled on him being a WR3.    I gave him the slightest benefit of the doubt coming into camp but between the drops in the practice setting and the games it's clear that he just doesn't have the capacity to elevate his ball skills to the next level.

 

With Gabe it's about matchups and opportunities.........he struggles against CB1 and CB2 because he can't separate from talented CB's without 3+ seconds to do so........and doesn't make anywhere near enough plays in contested situations.

 

At WR3 he is a 100+ QB rating option for the Bills again.........which aligns with the quality of his QB.

 

Bills need Kincaid to turn into WR2 pretty early on in this season and then hopefully that attention drawn underneath will free up Gabe for later in the season. 

This post must be printed and framed inside everyone’s mind. Well done. Exactly what I think

[MasterStrategist]

3 minutes ago, balln said:

Rapp helps ? He’s a fringe backup safety that just makes tackles. He’s slower than 4.8

This post must be printed and framed inside everyone’s mind. Well done. Exactly what I think

In comparison to putting Dodson on the field during passing downs, yes Rapp and Neal helps that situation.

 

That was my point.  We have better talent at "dime" this year, vs our current MLB.  And would give us more flexibility in using Milano/moving Taron and our safeties.

[balln]

https://www.turfshowtimes.com/platform/amp/2023/1/24/23569606/los-angeles-rams-free-agents-taylor-rapp-linebacker-move
 

makes me cringe. McD exact player pref. Positionless. Very slow. But “physical” and “high IQ.” 

Just now, MasterStrategist said:

In comparison to putting Dodson on the field during passing downs, yes Rapp and Neal helps that situation.

 

That was my point.  We have better talent at "dime" this year, vs our current MLB.  And would give us more flexibility in using Milano/moving Taron and our safeties.

I get that. But if were putting siran Neal and rapp in as our MLB together. They will still get bulldozed up the middle 6-8 yards everything on run downs. Or get torched on play action 

[MasterStrategist]

14 minutes ago, balln said:

https://www.turfshowtimes.com/platform/amp/2023/1/24/23569606/los-angeles-rams-free-agents-taylor-rapp-linebacker-move
 

makes me cringe. McD exact player pref. Positionless. Very slow. But “physical” and “high IQ.” 

I get that. But if were putting siran Neal and rapp in as our MLB together. They will still get bulldozed up the middle 6-8 yards everything on run downs. Or get torched on play action 

Again, passing downs/3rd down defense.  Not advocating Neal or Rapp as a primary MLB option.

 

I'm talking specific subpackage/down and distance situations - where McD is either baiting a run or feels confident in a passing situation or specific personell. 

 

For example, it's 3rd and 4, but a team comes out in 12 personell, I'm likely staying in base nickle.  But if it's 3rd and 4, with 3 or 4 Wrs on the field, I'm likely rolling with Dime (depending on field position, time remaining, etc).

 

Bottom line, I don't think Dodson gives us much on 3rd downs.  He's a liability in coverage, which limits what we do with Matt and Taron and our safeties; and he's not a great blitzer/spy type.  Now I think Bernard could be more effective than Dodson, but we've yet to see him in preseason.  He could be the answer as well, but from how Neal/Rapp have looked, I'd feel more confident in either of them Week 1 (in appropriate situations)

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think someone will choose him as a WR2 when he hits FA. It won't be a contender like the Bills, but someone will.

 

 

Yeah that would be ill advised though.   

 

I think the last time I was surprised by anything in free agency it was when Sean Payton advocated the signing of CJ Spiller and was talking him up like he just found this incredible weapon.    CJ was clearly a notch below a box of rocks on the intelligence meter and an actual successful NFL coach/franchise somehow had no idea of this despite access to all of his hilarious all-22 tape where he clearly had no idea where plays were designed to go.......... and were putting him into a far more complex offense than he played in with Marrone.

 

 

Edited August 28, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[Cash]

16 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Hamlin is one of (what I see anyway) as a "hidden battle" on the roster.

 

I dunno about "hesitant and fearful".  But let's be real.  The guy probably had broken ribs.  He was undoubtedly limited in the physical conditioning he was allowed to do for several months.  Now he's trying to work his way back, and competing against athletes who've been full-go training with all their might since March. 

 

I think you're correct that it's closer than many would think, and if it's closer, the Cold Hard Football Assessment would say keep Lewis because of his versatility.

Marlowe is older and slower, if it's close you keep Hamlin.

 

I think the Bills are aware that Hamlin is not back to 100% physically and are likely to give him more time to "play himself into shape".

 

 

I generally agree with this take. One other factor: Publc Relations. Whether one likes it or not, PR will 100% be a factor in any roster decision on Hamlin. Basically everyone in the US knows who Hamlin is. Him being cut (as opposed to IR’d or put on one of those “Reserve” lists) would be a low-end national news story. And likely would invite criticism (fair or unfair) from the same human interest reporters who’ve been covering all of Hamlin’s charity events.
 

I’m not saying he can’t or won’t be released outright. But it would surprise me, and I can’t imagine it happens without being accompanied by a wistful press release about how the organization is still behind him 100% or something. 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Cash said:

I generally agree with this take. One other factor: Publc Relations. Whether one likes it or not, PR will 100% be a factor in any roster decision on Hamlin. Basically everyone in the US knows who Hamlin is. Him being cut (as opposed to IR’d or put on one of those “Reserve” lists) would be a low-end national news story. And likely would invite criticism (fair or unfair) from the same human interest reporters who’ve been covering all of Hamlin’s charity events.
 

I’m not saying he can’t or won’t be released outright. But it would surprise me, and I can’t imagine it happens without being accompanied by a wistful press release about how the organization is still behind him 100% or something. 

 

I'm not saying he'll be released, just to be clear. 

 

I actually think the team will keep him.  I think they liked how he stepped up last season, and they view him as a guy who has been "playing his way back" from severe injury.  Which, make no mistake, is exactly what he's doing.  So if it's close, he gets the benefit of the doubt that he's 80% now (say) and can improve to 90%.

 

But I do think there is going to be some angst around who gets kept as a DB, and I don't view Hamlin as a lock.

2 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Could be a bit of a mix of conspiracy theory and wishful thinking lol  but I think a lot of the abandoning the short throws had to do with his elbow injury.  If your accuracy is a little off a lot of those underneath throws get dicey

 

I don't think it's either.  It's well documented that pre-draft and in his rookie season Josh's short to intermediate accuracy was poor.  Intermediate better his 2nd year, short still poor.   2020, Josh is on record saying he re-worked his throwing motion.  2022, Josh is on record saying that after the injury, he had to revert to the overhead throwing motion he used earlier in his career and away from the rotational throwing motion he developed in 2020 and has used since.

 

I don't think it's conspiracy or wishful thinking to listen to what Allen actually has said and connect the dots that returning to a throwing motion he used when he was documented as less accurate short/intermediate means he probably had some concerns about where the ball would go short to intermediate.

[Beck Water]

On 8/28/2023 at 6:44 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

See I think Gabe is a #2. But he isn't a "good" #2. He is a lower end low volume, high output guy. And as he goes into a contract year his route to improving that is to offer more in the short game. When you look at the way the short game is played one of the shorter routes that best fits his skillset is the slant.... and he dropped a ball on a slant. 

 

My post isn't saying "man Gabe Davis sucks" it is saying unless he improves in that facet he is what he is. And the early returns were not as encouraging as they could have been. 

 

Take it a step further and say....when it comes to key games, they can hinge on half a dozen plays muffed or made.   We need to be able to count on our #2 to make these plays.  If our #2 is Davis, the answer to "can we count on him?" is:

 

"perhaps"

[Cash]

18 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I'm not saying he'll be released, just to be clear. 

 

I actually think the team will keep him.  I think they liked how he stepped up last season, and they view him as a guy who has been "playing his way back" from severe injury.  Which, make no mistake, is exactly what he's doing.  So if it's close, he gets the benefit of the doubt that he's 80% now (say) and can improve to 90%.

 

But I do think there is going to be some angst around who gets kept as a DB, and I don't view Hamlin as a lock.

Yeah, the hottest Hamlin takes I’ve seen so far are the ones in this thread, and even those (yours and others) are only saying “it’s not a guarantee his roster spot is safe”. 
 

I think your second paragraph is spot on. If it comes down to a situation where he has to play (whether that’s special teams, or on defense due to injury), that’s when they’ll really have to make a decision. The guy we’ve seen in preseason? Probably not good enough to put out there as a full time starter. But if he’s truly a liability at that point, I think they’ll figure out a injury designation of some sort and IR-return him. 
 

Of course, the best case scenario is that with more time, practice, and game experience, Hamlin returns to form and it’s a win all around. I can’t imagine how hard that is mentally, but we’ve seen players make crazy comebacks before.