Good Night / Bad Night - Pre-season game 3

[Doc]

Dang, I've been calling him Ryan Vandenmark.

[buffaloboyinATL]

2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Hamlin is one of (what I see anyway) as a "hidden battle" on the roster.

 

I dunno about "hesitant and fearful".  But let's be real.  The guy probably had broken ribs.  He was undoubtedly limited in the physical conditioning he was allowed to do for several months.  Now he's trying to work his way back, and competing against athletes who've been full-go training with all their might since March. 

 

I think you're correct that it's closer than many would think, and if it's closer, the Cold Hard Football Assessment would say keep Lewis because of his versatility.

Marlowe is older and slower, if it's close you keep Hamlin.

 

I think the Bills are aware that Hamlin is not back to 100% physically and are likely to give him more time to "play himself into shape".

 

 

My guess is that you are correct. Reporters probably feel like it would be disrespectful to say he is fighting for a spot on the team, so no one is talking about it, outside of the building.   

[Beck Water]

Just now, Buffalo716 said:

And I certainly don't think Lance zerline is even a standard... But as far as pundits goes he's one of the more consistent over a decade

 

So I was using him as an example of somebody that I knew really liked Tremaine

 

Isn't that the crapshoot of the draft? Sometimes trying to calculate future potential with actual developed skills... I think Tremaine Edmunds is a good football player.. perhaps really good at times

 

But the NFL also has a salary cap which I don't know if his contract is worth it

 

We certainly drafted him based on physical traits and potential... He had good tape and I projected him that he could be an MLB

 

But it was all projection

 

I didn't even know you'd quoted Zierlein. 

 

I reference him because unlike other pundits, his scouting reports stay on file and can be searched for and re-read years later.   I shake my head at the grades, but when I go back and re-read one of his scouting reports, I often find him listing as weaknesses the same areas that are being critiqued in a pro player 2 years in.

 

Absolutely you're correct about the crapshoot of the draft.

 

Originally I didn't bring up Beane's 2018 and 2019 drafts because we were drafting higher then (7, 16, and 9 overall)

 

My point was that I think Beane has decided to compensate for late draft choices by trying to keep the "star" pipeline going, which means going for 'diamonds with a flaw' - high ceiling/low floor guys as opposed to steady-eddie lower celing/high floor guys who might contribute more earlier.  This has two problems: 1. as @Sierra Foothills pointed out, it's possible HC/LF guys may have a higher bust rate (unproven) 2. it may take these guys a couple years to reach their potential, in which case instead of having a solid player under contract for 5 years, we have a disappointing player who shows flashes under contract for 2 years, improvement in year 3, a strong player in year 4 and 5, then just when he's looking good we need to pay him the big bucks or watch him walk.

 

I don't know what's a better strategy though. 

[Buffalo716]

4 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I didn't even know you'd quoted Zierlein. 

 

I reference him because unlike other pundits, his scouting reports stay on file and can be searched for and re-read years later.   I shake my head at the grades, but when I go back and re-read one of his scouting reports, I often find him listing as weaknesses the same areas that are being critiqued in a pro player 2 years in.

 

Absolutely you're correct about the crapshoot of the draft.

 

Originally I didn't bring up Beane's 2018 and 2019 drafts because we were drafting higher then (7, 16, and 9 overall)

 

My point was that I think Beane has decided to compensate for late draft choices by trying to keep the "star" pipeline going, which means going for 'diamonds with a flaw' - high ceiling/low floor guys as opposed to steady-eddie lower celing/high floor guys who might contribute more earlier.  This has two problems: 1. as @Sierra Foothills pointed out, it's possible HC/LF guys may have a higher bust rate (unproven) 2. it may take these guys a couple years to reach their potential, in which case instead of having a solid player under contract for 5 years, we have a disappointing player who shows flashes under contract for 2 years, improvement in year 3, a strong player in year 4 and 5, then just when he's looking good we need to pay him the big bucks or watch him walk.

 

I don't know what's a better strategy though. 

I think it's strictly by position

 

If you're drafting an offensive linemen in the first three rounds you probably want to shoot for the most developed guy.. someone that you know can play

 

If you're drafting a TE... I think it's perfectly fine to take a chance on a high upside guy like Knox with little production

 

I think grades on a player are highly subjective... Because scheme fit and where you land also matters...

 

Typically as a collegiate amateur with a good amount of snaps... Couple that with athletic testing grades... You can get a strong sense of their strengths and weaknesses and where they should fall in the draft

 

But every amateur player getting drafted, has a lot of skill and can flourish in the right situation for the most part... Only a few are lost causes out the gate... Competing everyday at the highest level is a grind 

 

The NFL is 1% of the best college players in the world.. who became professionals...there are redeemable attributes for most

Edited August 28, 2023 by Buffalo716

[Maine-iac]

For all those that wanted to keep Hughes around, I have to say AJE reminds me a lot of him.  I keep waiting for AJE to start hitting the QB's at a more consistent rate.  He looks the part of a speed rusher but he's just not as disruptive on a regular bases as it seems like he should be.  I still think after Miller, Floyd, and Rousseau that AJE is probably our best pass rusher but he's not much for setting an edge.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

And I certainly don't think Lance zerline is even a standard... But as far as pundits goes he's one of the more consistent over a decade

 

So I was using him as an example of somebody that I knew really liked Tremaine

 

I'v

But the NFL also has a salary cap which I don't know if his contract is worth it

 

We certainly drafted him based on physical traits and potential... He had good tape and I projected him that he could be an MLB

 

But it was all projection

I've been out for a few hours, and now I'm back.   

 

Here's what I think/meant, and it's all in my earlier responses to Beck.  Beck said he thinks Beane goes after high risk, high reward guys late in the first round.  I agree.  And it may be a mistake to draft that way.  

 

Here's what I think about the draft.  I think every year there are some guys in the draft who are close to locks in terms of being stars.   No one is a totally sure thing, but awfully close.   I think there five to ten guys in draft like that, year in, year out.   Once you get to 10 or maybe 15, you're looking at guys who have really high ceilings, but who are more higher risk guys.   When you get to the bottom of the first round, there still may be a few guys with high ceilings, but they are higher risk.  And you start getting some guys who are locks to be players in the league for a long time, but with lower ceilings.  

 

So, drafting where Beane is drafting, he has a choice - go for the high ceiling high risk guys, or go for the lower ceiling lower risk guys.   Beck's theory, and I think I agree, is that Beane pretty consistently goes after the high ceiling guys.  I said I think Beane does this because the Bills very much want to have long-term keepers, and that means guys who get a second contract.  Low ceiling guys are less likely to be second contract guys.  

 

Finally, I mentioned Edmunds for the reason Beck understood.   Edmunds was a high ceiling guy, but he wasn't a top 10, near-lock kind of guy.  He was a higher risk guy, but Beane was attracted to the possibility that Edmunds could become a generational middle linebacker, a no-brainer second contract guy.  

 

There's a cost to drafting that way, which is that you have a season or two or even three where you have a problem at a position because the high-ceiling guy you invested in, a guy like Elam or Cody Ford, not only doesn't approach his ceiling; he isn't even a valuable regular contributor to your team's success.   How big is that cost, compared to having a guy who is contributing in his first season, a guy like Rousseau.  Now, I don't think Rousseau's proved anything yet, he hasn't approached his ceiling, but at least Rousseau has been a regular contributor from the start.   Is it worth it to have the chance at Rousseau's ceiling?  

 

I don't know if it's worth it.  I really don't.  But what Beck's pointed out is that, right or wrong, Beane's approach seems to be to bet on the high ceiling guys and be willing to take his lumps on misses.  In fact, his approach to team-building is that he's going to beat the other teams at finding and developing high-ceiling talent.  He's going to be better identifying talent, and then he's going to give that talent to McDermott.  McDermott's job is get most of the high ceiling talent to reach their ceilings. 

 

 Beane loves competition, and his job is competition against the other GMs.  Beane lives to compete, and he leaves nothing on the field, so to speak.  He and McDermott have the same mentality.  In McDermott, I think of it as the wrestler's mentality.   All-out physical fight.  It's Beane's mentality, too.   I wouldn't expect a competitor like that to do anything else; he's going to fight and scratch claw for the best players.  That means he's always going after the high-ceiling guy.  Almost always. 

 

 

Edit:  Just to be clear, it took me some time to put together this post.  While I fiddling with it, Beck posted saying a lot of the same things I say in this post.   I didn't copy what he said, and now I find it surprising how similar it is.  

Edited August 28, 2023 by Shaw66

[Mat68]

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Pre-season 2023 is in the books now all eyes are on the cuts tracker. I think the Bills have generally started their moves the day before so I expect we will see movement on Monday. The deadline for the 53 is 4pm Tuesday. Let's have a look at who helped themselves and who hurt themselves in the 24-21 victory over Chicago.

 

Good Night for...

 

Offensive Rhythm - Much better day for the starting offense as their one drive resulted in 12 plays, 72 yards and a touchdown. Two things were noticeably different from the Steelers game. The first was obviously the offensive line played better. There was the one 3rd down breakdown (probably O'Cyrus Torrence's first real pass pro failure of pre-season) where Josh had to be superman to make a play but in general they held their own up front and continue to look effective as run blockers. The second was the establishment of some quick game. And that was missing in action last week. Some of the excuses were that the Bills weren't game planning. Nobody is asking for game planning just some semblance of a quick game to help their line. It was missing much of last season too and I think we will need it as the season progresses. Josh looked sharp and on point, Diggs got a couple of balls, Cook looked good and the Bills moved the chains. The one further observation was the number of different personnel groupings and formations - I think we saw some 11, some 12, some 21, some 10.

Christian Benford - Dane Jackson has been the leader in the clubhouse in the three man battle for CB2 since camp opened but right at the last it looks like outsider Benford may have stolen the job. The former 6th rounder out of Villanova got the start opposite Tre White and had a nice pass breakup and a good tackle in run support while just generally looking like he had good coverage most snaps he played. Jackson came in on the 2nd drive when they sat Tre down and did nothing wrong but I'd make Benford the favourite to start week 1.

Siran Neal - Siran Neal has been unlucky not to make my good night list in the first two weeks because he has been one of the best Bills players in pre-season. He began it competing with Cam Lewis for the #2 nickel job but that competition has been won comprehensively and he had two endzone pass breakups yesterday as well as being active as a tackler in the open field. He was always making the roster as an elite gunner on coverage units but his play on defense probably saves the Bills a roster spot that they may have thought they needed for a backup nickel. Which probably means Cam Lewis and the impressive Ja'Marcus Ingram are headed for the practice squad.

Trent Sherfield - I think the Bills staff will love this guy. I don't know that there is a single special trait that separates him out as a receiver but he does a bit of everything. He had a nice catch over the middle yesterday, a nice out route where he demonstrated some short area separation talent and then attracted a DPI on a deep ball where he got behind the defence. Add that to his blocking, his special teams play and his versatility and he was built to play for a Sean McDermott team. He has already shown me he is an upgrade as the #3 outside receiver over and above what they had with Jake Kumerow and John Brown in 2022. How much run he gets in the regular season will be interesting to monitor.

Damien Harris - Seven rushes for 25 yards might not have wowed anyone on Harris's pre-season debut but it was a positive step forward that he could get on the field. A guy with his injury history missing the whole pre-season might just have put a nagging doubt in the head of Brandon Beane about whether this experiment was worth persisting with - especially with Mims and Evans showing well as the 3rd and 4th back in his absence. But Harris showed a bit of burst and did something the Bills have earmarked him for - ploughed into the endzone in a goalline package. I doubt his yards per attempt numbers will wow anyone by the end of the regular season either, but I wouldn't be surprised if his first down conversion and touchdown numbers are impressive.

 

 

Bad Night for...

 

Kaiir Elam - Elam makes it a hattrick in the bad night column. Some of that has been about his own play on the field, especially week 2 vs Pittsburgh, but some of it has been about his usage. Week 1 he was platooned with Dane Jackson in the first team defense, by week 3 he was the 4th man up and only got in once the Bills had really gone to what was a mixture of 2s and 3s. If Benford has won the CB2 competition from the back of the pack Elam has gone in the other direction. He is still struggling with those transitions in zone. I think it is the main thing keeping him off the field, his understanding of where to give cushion, when the break on the ball and just the mechanical function of adjusting his body from one to the other. Last night's usage said to me he is 4th of 4 among our boundary corners. Some of that is on him, some of it is on the Bills who just haven't managed to mesh the player they picked with their scheme. 

 

Damar Hamlin - I will preface this by saying I think Damar Hamlin will make the roster. But I think he might have Siran Neal to thank for that. Because if Neal hadn't been so impressive as the nickel #2 I could well have imagined the Bills giving the final safety spot to Cam Lewis for his ability to play nickel as well. Damar was poor last week and he struggled again. Out of position, a huge whiff on the tackle on DJ Moore that led to a big gain and just generally struggling to make an impact. In his favour he is always willing, he plays with maximum effort, I'm just not sure his pre-season has been particularly strong. It's also worth considering the balance of the safety room. If Hamlin and Rapp are the backups they lack a true center fielder behind Hyde. Because Poyer can play both spots maybe they worry less about that but it might factor in if Damar is a surprise cut this week. 

 

AJ Epenesa - This was the full AJ Epenesa experience. A sack and another good pressure but two bad overrurns when he takes the wide attack angle that led to long Quarterback escapes - the first play of that third drive where Fields scampered for 13 and a first down and the touchdown run from the backup QB. And it is not like this is the first time we have seen it. I go back to 2021 when he had a strong start to the season but began to lose reps after a similar loss of contain saw Taylor Heinicke escape for a rushing touchdown. It has been a persistent problem. In the three drives where there was some semblance of first team defense in the Bills rotated the right defensive end. Boogie got the first drive. Leonard Floyd got the second. AJE got the third. That might just have been the planned rotation but it is reasonable to ask whether it represents where they stand in order of preference. It is a change from the start of pre-season where Epenesa was the first guy in. While the consensus seemed to be that AJ had the stronger camp, the pre-season games so far have probably been a win for Boogie. 

 

Justin Shorter - Let's start this by reminding ourselves where Shorter stands in the wide receiver pecking order. He is at best the 5th guy on the depth chart and at best the 4th outside guy on the depth chart after Diggs, Davis and the aforementioned Sherfield. He does have being a 5th round draft pick this year in his favour but to make the 53 he is going to have to play teams. To that end failing to come down with a contested catch along the far sideline probably hurts less than losing his discipline as a gunner that led to a 56 yard return. He tried to cheat inside, got greedy looking to go for the ball carrier, ran straight into a block and left a huge hole for Scott to burst through. He has to stay patient there... stay in his line and force Scott to keep running laterally. I think the hope with Shorter was that he would justify his spot on the roster this year as a gunner allowing him time to develop as a receiver. I still think that likely is what happens - but he didn't help himself yesterday. 

 

Gabriel Davis - I put Gabe last because he is going to be on the roster and he is going to start so he doesn't have much to lose in the immediate term from his underwhelming pre-season. The most concerning play to me is the very first drop because it validates the criticism that people have made of Gabe which is that in the shorter areas he isn't adding much value to the Bills offense. He isn't a big short area quickness guy who will generate separation with his burst. He has a decent release package and decent body control and so the exact type of play that you think plays to his strengths if you are using him in the shorter zones is a slant. But Quarterbacks and Offensive Coordinators get very wary of throwing slants into traffic to guys who don't come up with the catch. And if you can't use him there you are resigned to him being a low volume, high output, deep shot guy who runs go routes, post routes and comebacks. You can run a successful offense with that type of #2 receiver.... but your variety will have to come from elsewhere which puts a lot of pressure on Kincaid, Knox, Harty and Sherfield to pick up the slack otherwise teams will just key in on Stefon Diggs the entire year. 

 

 

There we go folks. We're on to the Jets! 

Lowkey Shorter has not played well on teams.  That was his role.  Both returns this preseason where on his side of the field.  His potential is intriguing but I think he is firmly on the bubble.  I think Evans and Isabella make that a decision they weren't expecting to have 3 weeks ago. 
 

Elam is getting some hate.  When playing he hasnt been bad.  I think for 80% of the time Buffalo likes Bedford and Jackson.  They fit the off zone style.  Man to man he has more than held his own and does things neither can.  Bedford coming out of nowhere and playing well is good problem. 

[Doc]

I don't see a reason to keep Shorter on the 53.  It's not like any team is going to swoop in and put him on their 53.  Which means they can put him on the PS.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

2 minutes ago, Doc said:

I don't see a reason to keep Shorter on the 53.  It's not like any team is going to swoop in and put him on their 53.  Which means they can put him on the PS.

Agreed. He is 100% going to the PS. Seems like a perfect PS guy. 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Maine-iac said:

For all those that wanted to keep Hughes around, I have to say AJE reminds me a lot of him.  I keep waiting for AJE to start hitting the QB's at a more consistent rate.  He looks the part of a speed rusher but he's just not as disruptive on a regular bases as it seems like he should be.  I still think after Miller, Floyd, and Rousseau that AJE is probably our best pass rusher but he's not much for setting an edge.

 

At 34, Hughes had 19 sacks + QB hits last season.  Best year since 2018.

 

Might be something to how he was being coached/used

 

You're right about Epenesa struggling in the run game.

[Shaw66]

57 minutes ago, Doc said:

I don't see a reason to keep Shorter on the 53.  It's not like any team is going to swoop in and put him on their 53.  Which means they can put him on the PS.

Buscaglia says that the Bills will carry 6 receivers and one needs to play special teams.  Shorter apparently is more or less a lock, because he's the best receiver who plays special teams.  

1 hour ago, Maine-iac said:

For all those that wanted to keep Hughes around, I have to say AJE reminds me a lot of him.  I keep waiting for AJE to start hitting the QB's at a more consistent rate.  He looks the part of a speed rusher but he's just not as disruptive on a regular bases as it seems like he should be.  I still think after Miller, Floyd, and Rousseau that AJE is probably our best pass rusher but he's not much for setting an edge.

I don't think AJE and Hughes are so similar.  Hughes was a genuine high quality pass rusher, and some of his talent was put under wraps because of the discipline of the defense.    Hughes learned to play effectively in that defense.   AJE isn't that kind of pass rusher, unfortunately.  And he hasn't been able to play with the discipline the defense requires.  

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

Lowkey Shorter has not played well on teams.  That was his role.  Both returns this preseason where on his side of the field.

 

Thought I heard yesterday big return was on Tyrell Shavers .....

 

8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Buscaglia says that the Bills will carry 6 receivers and one needs to play special teams.  Shorter apparently is more or less a lock, because he's the best receiver who plays special teams.  

 

Sherfield plays teams. 

 

In fact, that's what kept him in the league year 2 through 4...playing teams

 

Now, whether he plays the role on teams that the Bills need, or whether the Bills want him to play teams or focus on playing receiver, can't tell ya

 

But he's a proven teams player in the league.

Edited August 28, 2023 by Beck Water

[LEBills]

18 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Thought I heard yesterday big return was on Tyrell Shavers .....

Shavers let the block punt happen. Shorter got a little too aggressive and lost contain on his lane for the long return. The block he took on got in the way and wound up wiping out most of the backside pursuit. 

[Saxum]

5 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

Or they hit on Benford a 6th RD pick unless you’re looking only at the glass half empty.  Elam definitely is not showing and will be CB4.

 

Elam can become functional but will require more work.

• He needs to understand rules in college and pros are different - he is too "handsy"
• He needs to work harder understanding zone concepts of Bills.
• He needs to be used on plays where he is being matched up against a targeted player rather than matched up via zone concepts.

Bills used a 1st round pick on him and needs to adjust defense to fit him just as they did eventually on defense when Edmunds was out and Klein replaced him.

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Eastport bills said:

The preseason means nothing and you’re reading repercussions into a drop by a player that produces on the biggest stage. Pressure on Harty, Knox, Sherfield and Kincaid is a great problem to have. These guys are going to make our season and give Diggs and Davis better matchups. It’s similar to the doomsday reaction to the O-line being disengaged against Pitt. Watch a regular season game and get back to me.

 

Except we have seen these issues in the regular season for Gabe.

[Eastport bills]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Except we have seen these issues in the regular season for Gabe.

Gabe is in a contract year and looks healthy. He’s been very productive in three postseasons. Some people would take his performance as a good #2. I think it’s not a concern on this team.

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

Gabe is in a contract year and looks healthy. He’s been very productive in three postseasons. Some people would take his performance as a good #2. I think it’s not a concern on this team.

 

See I think Gabe is a #2. But he isn't a "good" #2. He is a lower end low volume, high output guy. And as he goes into a contract year his route to improving that is to offer more in the short game. When you look at the way the short game is played one of the shorter routes that best fits his skillset is the slant.... and he dropped a ball on a slant. 

 

My post isn't saying "man Gabe Davis sucks" it is saying unless he improves in that facet he is what he is. And the early returns were not as encouraging as they could have been. 

[Doc]

8 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Buscaglia says that the Bills will carry 6 receivers and one needs to play special teams.  Shorter apparently is more or less a lock, because he's the best receiver who plays special teams. 

It sounds like Shorter was pretty poor on STs on Saturday. Going to be interesting to see who they keep. 

[JerseyBills]

Neal with back to back great performances.  He has looked really confident, explosive and decisive out there. May challenge Rapp to keep the big nickel role he has been playing past 2 years

[Roundybout]

11 hours ago, Doc said:

Dang, I've been calling him Ryan Vandenmark.

Something is rotten here.