Good Night / Bad Night - Pre-season game 3

[Simon Says]

47 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Fair list. My biggest takeaway was how the O called plays. Motion, lot if different formations and finally QUICK reads for 17. It just keeps the D off balance, Cook had some easy holes for nice gains. And obviously Josh can hit the deep ball at any time. That 1 drive looked very similar to the NE massacre on WC weekend

Agreed on Diggs, I could see him going crazy, he should get close to 15 targets per game, going to be tough to double him. I had draft last night,  wanted him round 2 cause Saquon was sticking out in rd 1 but missed out. 

Average of 15 per game is a total of 255. That is not going to happen ; the record is 205.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Pre-season 2023 is in the books now all eyes are on the cuts tracker. I think the Bills have generally started their moves the day before so I expect we will see movement on Monday. The deadline for the 53 is 4pm Tuesday. Let's have a look at who helped themselves and who hurt themselves in the 24-21 victory over Chicago.

 

Good Night for...

 

Offensive Rhythm - Much better day for the starting offense as their one drive resulted in 12 plays, 72 yards and a touchdown. Two things were noticeably different from the Steelers game. The first was obviously the offensive line played better. There was the one 3rd down breakdown (probably O'Cyrus Torrence's first real pass pro failure of pre-season) where Josh had to be superman to make a play but in general they held their own up front and continue to look effective as run blockers. The second was the establishment of some quick game. And that was missing in action last week. Some of the excuses were that the Bills weren't game planning. Nobody is asking for game planning just some semblance of a quick game to help their line. It was missing much of last season too and I think we will need it as the season progresses. Josh looked sharp and on point, Diggs got a couple of balls, Cook looked good and the Bills moved the chains. The one further observation was the number of different personnel groupings and formations - I think we saw some 11, some 12, some 21, some 10.

Christian Benford - Dane Jackson has been the leader in the clubhouse in the three man battle for CB2 since camp opened but right at the last it looks like outsider Benford may have stolen the job. The former 6th rounder out of Villanova got the start opposite Tre White and had a nice pass breakup and a good tackle in run support while just generally looking like he had good coverage most snaps he played. Jackson came in on the 2nd drive when they sat Tre down and did nothing wrong but I'd make Benford the favourite to start week 1.

Siran Neal - Siran Neal has been unlucky not to make my good night list in the first two weeks because he has been one of the best Bills players in pre-season. He began it competing with Cam Lewis for the #2 nickel job but that competition has been won comprehensively and he had two endzone pass breakups yesterday as well as being active as a tackler in the open field. He was always making the roster as an elite gunner on coverage units but his play on defense probably saves the Bills a roster spot that they may have thought they needed for a backup nickel. Which probably means Cam Lewis and the impressive Ja'Marcus Ingram are headed for the practice squad.

Trent Sherfield - I think the Bills staff will love this guy. I don't know that there is a single special trait that separates him out as a receiver but he does a bit of everything. He had a nice catch over the middle yesterday, a nice out route where he demonstrated some short area separation talent and then attracted a DPI on a deep ball where he got behind the defence. Add that to his blocking, his special teams play and his versatility and he was built to play for a Sean McDermott team. He has already shown me he is an upgrade as the #3 outside receiver over and above what they had with Jake Kumerow and John Brown in 2022. How much run he gets in the regular season will be interesting to monitor.

Damien Harris - Seven rushes for 25 yards might not have wowed anyone on Harris's pre-season debut but it was a positive step forward that he could get on the field. A guy with his injury history missing the whole pre-season might just have put a nagging doubt in the head of Brandon Beane about whether this experiment was worth persisting with - especially with Mims and Evans showing well as the 3rd and 4th back in his absence. But Harris showed a bit of burst and did something the Bills have earmarked him for - ploughed into the endzone in a goalline package. I doubt his yards per attempt numbers will wow anyone by the end of the regular season either, but I wouldn't be surprised if his first down conversion and touchdown numbers are impressive.

 

 

Bad Night for...

 

Kaiir Elam - Elam makes it a hattrick in the bad night column. Some of that has been about his own play on the field, especially week 2 vs Pittsburgh, but some of it has been about his usage. Week 1 he was platooned with Dane Jackson in the first team defense, by week 3 he was the 4th man up and only got in once the Bills had really gone to what was a mixture of 2s and 3s. If Benford has won the CB2 competition from the back of the pack Elam has gone in the other direction. He is still struggling with those transitions in zone. I think it is the main thing keeping him off the field, his understanding of where to give cushion, when the break on the ball and just the mechanical function of adjusting his body from one to the other. Last night's usage said to me he is 4th of 4 among our boundary corners. Some of that is on him, some of it is on the Bills who just haven't managed to mesh the player they picked with their scheme. 

 

Damar Hamlin - I will preface this by saying I think Damar Hamlin will make the roster. But I think he might have Siran Neal to thank for that. Because if Neal hadn't been so impressive as the nickel #2 I could well have imagined the Bills giving the final safety spot to Cam Lewis for his ability to play nickel as well. Damar was poor last week and he struggled again. Out of position, a huge whiff on the tackle on DJ Moore that led to a big gain and just generally struggling to make an impact. In his favour he is always willing, he plays with maximum effort, I'm just not sure his pre-season has been particularly strong. It's also worth considering the balance of the safety room. If Hamlin and Rapp are the backups they lack a true center fielder behind Hyde. Because Poyer can play both spots maybe they worry less about that but it might factor in if Damar is a surprise cut this week. 

 

AJ Epenesa - This was the full AJ Epenesa experience. A sack and another good pressure but two bad overrurns when he takes the wide attack angle that led to long Quarterback escapes - the first play of that third drive where Fields scampered for 13 and a first down and the touchdown run from the backup QB. And it is not like this is the first time we have seen it. I go back to 2021 when he had a strong start to the season but began to lose reps after a similar loss of contain saw Taylor Heinicke escape for a rushing touchdown. It has been a persistent problem. In the three drives where there was some semblance of first team defense in the Bills rotated the right defensive end. Boogie got the first drive. Leonard Floyd got the second. AJE got the third. That might just have been the planned rotation but it is reasonable to ask whether it represents where they stand in order of preference. It is a change from the start of pre-season where Epenesa was the first guy in. While the consensus seemed to be that AJ had the stronger camp, the pre-season games so far have probably been a win for Boogie. 

 

Justin Shorter - Let's start this by reminding ourselves where Shorter stands in the wide receiver pecking order. He is at best the 5th guy on the depth chart and at best the 4th outside guy on the depth chart after Diggs, Davis and the aforementioned Sherfield. He does have being a 5th round draft pick this year in his favour but to make the 53 he is going to have to play teams. To that end failing to come down with a contested catch along the far sideline probably hurts less than losing his discipline as a gunner that led to a 56 yard return. He tried to cheat inside, got greedy looking to go for the ball carrier, ran straight into a block and left a huge hole for Scott to burst through. He has to stay patient there... stay in his line and force Scott to keep running laterally. I think the hope with Shorter was that he would justify his spot on the roster this year as a gunner allowing him time to develop as a receiver. I still think that likely is what happens - but he didn't help himself yesterday. 

 

Gabriel Davis - I put Gabe last because he is going to be on the roster and he is going to start so he doesn't have much to lose in the immediate term from his underwhelming pre-season. The most concerning play to me is the very first drop because it validates the criticism that people have made of Gabe which is that in the shorter areas he isn't adding much value to the Bills offense. He isn't a big short area quickness guy who will generate separation with his burst. He has a decent release package and decent body control and so the exact type of play that you think plays to his strengths if you are using him in the shorter zones is a slant. But Quarterbacks and Offensive Coordinators get very wary of throwing slants into traffic to guys who don't come up with the catch. And if you can't use him there you are resigned to him being a low volume, high output, deep shot guy who runs go routes, post routes and comebacks. You can run a successful offense with that type of #2 receiver.... but your variety will have to come from elsewhere which puts a lot of pressure on Kincaid, Knox, Harty and Sherfield to pick up the slack otherwise teams will just key in on Stefon Diggs the entire year. 

 

 

There we go folks. We're on to the Jets! 

Agree completely. A few responses.

 

1) I loved the Sherfield signing. But I have been surprised at how much bigger he plays than his actual size— showed some of that yesterday when he played outside.

 

2) Neal has popped off the field all preseason. But can we trust him? He has really disappointed in prior years when given chances to get on the field on defense. And I still think he is only a meh special teamer (eg, missed that chance to down a punt inside of the 10 yesterday that most good gunners do regularly).

 

3) if Damien Harris stays healthy, I think he is going to end up being the main back in any time share. Just brings way more downhill running to this team. 

 

[JackKemp]

I did not see Gabe Davis dropping anything. I did see pass break ups from either not enough separation or an under thrown pass. 

[Doc]

Just now, JackKemp said:

I did not see Gabe Davis dropping anything. I did see pass break ups from either not enough separation or an under thrown pass. 

 

The first pass could be considered a drop.  The only defense is that his arms were outstretched and it was a laser from Josh, but a top WR has to make that catch.

[BuffaloBillyG]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Pre-season 2023 is in the books now all eyes are on the cuts tracker. I think the Bills have generally started their moves the day before so I expect we will see movement on Monday. The deadline for the 53 is 4pm Tuesday. Let's have a look at who helped themselves and who hurt themselves in the 24-21 victory over Chicago.

 

Good Night for...

 

Offensive Rhythm - Much better day for the starting offense as their one drive resulted in 12 plays, 72 yards and a touchdown. Two things were noticeably different from the Steelers game. The first was obviously the offensive line played better. There was the one 3rd down breakdown (probably O'Cyrus Torrence's first real pass pro failure of pre-season) where Josh had to be superman to make a play but in general they held their own up front and continue to look effective as run blockers. The second was the establishment of some quick game. And that was missing in action last week. Some of the excuses were that the Bills weren't game planning. Nobody is asking for game planning just some semblance of a quick game to help their line. It was missing much of last season too and I think we will need it as the season progresses. Josh looked sharp and on point, Diggs got a couple of balls, Cook looked good and the Bills moved the chains. The one further observation was the number of different personnel groupings and formations - I think we saw some 11, some 12, some 21, some 10.

Christian Benford - Dane Jackson has been the leader in the clubhouse in the three man battle for CB2 since camp opened but right at the last it looks like outsider Benford may have stolen the job. The former 6th rounder out of Villanova got the start opposite Tre White and had a nice pass breakup and a good tackle in run support while just generally looking like he had good coverage most snaps he played. Jackson came in on the 2nd drive when they sat Tre down and did nothing wrong but I'd make Benford the favourite to start week 1.

Siran Neal - Siran Neal has been unlucky not to make my good night list in the first two weeks because he has been one of the best Bills players in pre-season. He began it competing with Cam Lewis for the #2 nickel job but that competition has been won comprehensively and he had two endzone pass breakups yesterday as well as being active as a tackler in the open field. He was always making the roster as an elite gunner on coverage units but his play on defense probably saves the Bills a roster spot that they may have thought they needed for a backup nickel. Which probably means Cam Lewis and the impressive Ja'Marcus Ingram are headed for the practice squad.

Trent Sherfield - I think the Bills staff will love this guy. I don't know that there is a single special trait that separates him out as a receiver but he does a bit of everything. He had a nice catch over the middle yesterday, a nice out route where he demonstrated some short area separation talent and then attracted a DPI on a deep ball where he got behind the defence. Add that to his blocking, his special teams play and his versatility and he was built to play for a Sean McDermott team. He has already shown me he is an upgrade as the #3 outside receiver over and above what they had with Jake Kumerow and John Brown in 2022. How much run he gets in the regular season will be interesting to monitor.

Damien Harris - Seven rushes for 25 yards might not have wowed anyone on Harris's pre-season debut but it was a positive step forward that he could get on the field. A guy with his injury history missing the whole pre-season might just have put a nagging doubt in the head of Brandon Beane about whether this experiment was worth persisting with - especially with Mims and Evans showing well as the 3rd and 4th back in his absence. But Harris showed a bit of burst and did something the Bills have earmarked him for - ploughed into the endzone in a goalline package. I doubt his yards per attempt numbers will wow anyone by the end of the regular season either, but I wouldn't be surprised if his first down conversion and touchdown numbers are impressive.

 

 

Bad Night for...

 

Kaiir Elam - Elam makes it a hattrick in the bad night column. Some of that has been about his own play on the field, especially week 2 vs Pittsburgh, but some of it has been about his usage. Week 1 he was platooned with Dane Jackson in the first team defense, by week 3 he was the 4th man up and only got in once the Bills had really gone to what was a mixture of 2s and 3s. If Benford has won the CB2 competition from the back of the pack Elam has gone in the other direction. He is still struggling with those transitions in zone. I think it is the main thing keeping him off the field, his understanding of where to give cushion, when the break on the ball and just the mechanical function of adjusting his body from one to the other. Last night's usage said to me he is 4th of 4 among our boundary corners. Some of that is on him, some of it is on the Bills who just haven't managed to mesh the player they picked with their scheme. 

 

Damar Hamlin - I will preface this by saying I think Damar Hamlin will make the roster. But I think he might have Siran Neal to thank for that. Because if Neal hadn't been so impressive as the nickel #2 I could well have imagined the Bills giving the final safety spot to Cam Lewis for his ability to play nickel as well. Damar was poor last week and he struggled again. Out of position, a huge whiff on the tackle on DJ Moore that led to a big gain and just generally struggling to make an impact. In his favour he is always willing, he plays with maximum effort, I'm just not sure his pre-season has been particularly strong. It's also worth considering the balance of the safety room. If Hamlin and Rapp are the backups they lack a true center fielder behind Hyde. Because Poyer can play both spots maybe they worry less about that but it might factor in if Damar is a surprise cut this week. 

 

AJ Epenesa - This was the full AJ Epenesa experience. A sack and another good pressure but two bad overrurns when he takes the wide attack angle that led to long Quarterback escapes - the first play of that third drive where Fields scampered for 13 and a first down and the touchdown run from the backup QB. And it is not like this is the first time we have seen it. I go back to 2021 when he had a strong start to the season but began to lose reps after a similar loss of contain saw Taylor Heinicke escape for a rushing touchdown. It has been a persistent problem. In the three drives where there was some semblance of first team defense in the Bills rotated the right defensive end. Boogie got the first drive. Leonard Floyd got the second. AJE got the third. That might just have been the planned rotation but it is reasonable to ask whether it represents where they stand in order of preference. It is a change from the start of pre-season where Epenesa was the first guy in. While the consensus seemed to be that AJ had the stronger camp, the pre-season games so far have probably been a win for Boogie. 

 

Justin Shorter - Let's start this by reminding ourselves where Shorter stands in the wide receiver pecking order. He is at best the 5th guy on the depth chart and at best the 4th outside guy on the depth chart after Diggs, Davis and the aforementioned Sherfield. He does have being a 5th round draft pick this year in his favour but to make the 53 he is going to have to play teams. To that end failing to come down with a contested catch along the far sideline probably hurts less than losing his discipline as a gunner that led to a 56 yard return. He tried to cheat inside, got greedy looking to go for the ball carrier, ran straight into a block and left a huge hole for Scott to burst through. He has to stay patient there... stay in his line and force Scott to keep running laterally. I think the hope with Shorter was that he would justify his spot on the roster this year as a gunner allowing him time to develop as a receiver. I still think that likely is what happens - but he didn't help himself yesterday. 

 

Gabriel Davis - I put Gabe last because he is going to be on the roster and he is going to start so he doesn't have much to lose in the immediate term from his underwhelming pre-season. The most concerning play to me is the very first drop because it validates the criticism that people have made of Gabe which is that in the shorter areas he isn't adding much value to the Bills offense. He isn't a big short area quickness guy who will generate separation with his burst. He has a decent release package and decent body control and so the exact type of play that you think plays to his strengths if you are using him in the shorter zones is a slant. But Quarterbacks and Offensive Coordinators get very wary of throwing slants into traffic to guys who don't come up with the catch. And if you can't use him there you are resigned to him being a low volume, high output, deep shot guy who runs go routes, post routes and comebacks. You can run a successful offense with that type of #2 receiver.... but your variety will have to come from elsewhere which puts a lot of pressure on Kincaid, Knox, Harty and Sherfield to pick up the slack otherwise teams will just key in on Stefon Diggs the entire year. 

 

 

There we go folks. We're on to the Jets! 

Great write up and a heck of set of preseason breakdowns from you, kind sir. Thank you!

 

My biggest takeaway from yesterday was we saw Dodson play his best ball...and it was still lacking. I truly believe that the guy who will be at MLB come playoff time isn't on the roster right now. I still don't believe Beane makes a huge splash at the position this year. I think he would be content with a "steady Eddie" as he would call it. A Joe Schobert 

Kind of guy that isn't great by any means but can do enough.

 

I really disliked the game Gabe Davis had if only because it justified every word that his detractors said about him in the off-season in one game. I still like Gabe, but there's no way he needs to see a high target share. Hopefully we can get a few plus plays from the supporting cast a game (Kincaid, Sherfield ect) to offset that. It could very well be "#2 target by committee".

 

I don't want to lose anyone out of this RB room. Even the PS/soon to be gone guys in Mims, Evans and Johnson. We are going to see some good football players leave this team in the next 48 hours. Guys that could have not only made the team 5 years ago...but likely see starting reps. What a time to be alive!

 

[ganesh]

I am really concerned how the Special Teams have played in the pre-season games.  They have been terrible.   We have had wonderful special teams the past several years; But this is not looking like any of that.

[PBF81]

26 minutes ago, Herb Nightly said:

Average of 15 per game is a total of 255. That is not going to happen ; the record is 205.

 

Diggs' career max is 166.

 

Allen's career max attempts is 646.  I expect that to go up slightly this season.  Even at that, If Diggs were to average 10 per game that'd be over 25% of Allen's attempts.  Gotta be some balance as well.  

 

Jefferson led the league last seaason with 184.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

1. In putting together a toolbox, how many swiss army knives are desireable?  
2. You discuss Shorter and Sherfield. Curious to where you think last nights game left Harty and Isabella?

 

1. The more you can do the better. I think when you are talking about backups people who can do multiple things are useful. So I wouldn't put a number on it. But Sherfield even if he just played outside receiver would be their third best outside receiver. 

 

2. Harty is making the team. I see no way he isn't. He hasn't wowed me, to say the least, in pre-season but he is in. I think Isabella playing a fair way into the 4th post the return game fumble is a sign he is now facing a battle to make it.

[PBF81]

33 minutes ago, ganesh said:

I am really concerned how the Special Teams have played in the pre-season games.  They have been terrible.   We have had wonderful special teams the past several years; But this is not looking like any of that.

 

I wouldn't sweat anything yet.  It's kinda funny, last week everything sucked, this week everything's great.  LOL   Not to get in on that emotional fray, let's also realize that even with Chicago's starters on both sides, they were terrible on both offense and defense last season.  I'm not sure that it's the goal of teams to win in the preseason, seems that coaches are trying to evaluate players, or get them in real-game thinking mode anyway.  

 

My personal curiosity is what the final depth chart looks like, particularly WRT to the LBs.  I'm curious what they plan on doing.  

 

The offense IMO is going to be fine, if we stay healthy, expect franchise records to be set, perhaps even a league record or two.  I'm thinking Air Coryell type of offense here.  

 

 

Edited August 27, 2023 by PBF81

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Goin Breakdown said:

It's hard to think that a team that mainly plays zone would target a guy who had only played man. You could be right though. These coaches think they can turn any player into a star. 

 

My take early in that draft process was that McCreary and Elam of the top 7 corners were the two that didn't fit the Bills for that reason. But actually the more I looked at the measurables on Elam the more I saw he fitted their physical profile. They drafted a big end (AJE) and tried to turn him into a speed rusher. Bates was a tackle they turned into an IOL. Hyde and Poyer had been corners who'd played less at safety when they arrived here. Fair to say this staff trusts itself on taking the raw clay and coaching it up.

33 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Agree completely. A few responses.

 

1) I loved the Sherfield signing. But I have been surprised at how much bigger he plays than his actual size— showed some of that yesterday when he played outside.

 

2) Neal has popped off the field all preseason. But can we trust him? He has really disappointed in prior years when given chances to get on the field on defense. And I still think he is only a meh special teamer (eg, missed that chance to down a punt inside of the 10 yesterday that most good gunners do regularly).

 

3) if Damien Harris stays healthy, I think he is going to end up being the main back in any time share. Just brings way more downhill running to this team. 

 

 

 

2 - Siran Neal is NOT only a meh STer. He is elite. Sure he missed a chance yesterday. He misses those very rarely. He has had some incredible downings in his time as a Bill... scooping balls almost in the endzone back etc.

17 minutes ago, ganesh said:

I am really concerned how the Special Teams have played in the pre-season games.  They have been terrible.   We have had wonderful special teams the past several years; But this is not looking like any of that.

 

True. But they were a bit messy last pre-season too. I think sometimes just the fact they are rotating guys in and out at this time of year makes it hard to judge. Generally not sure pre-season play means much for STs even compared to O and D.

[JerseyBills]

36 minutes ago, Herb Nightly said:

Average of 15 per game is a total of 255. That is not going to happen ; the record is 205.

Ya I'm exaggerating lol. I just hope it's in the 10-15:range every week 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

What in the world is a favourite? 🤮

 

A correctly spelt word.

42 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

 Will Grier put up a nice game for Dallas, either will be cut or traded (former Carolina guy).  He'd be a nice P/S stash, if we could get him.

 

I think Grier is awful and worth saying Allen beat him out when both were backups to Cam.

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Pre-season 2023 is in the books now all eyes are on the cuts tracker. I think the Bills have generally started their moves the day before so I expect we will see movement on Monday. The deadline for the 53 is 4pm Tuesday. Let's have a look at who helped themselves and who hurt themselves in the 24-21 victory over Chicago.

 

Good Night for...

 

Offensive Rhythm - Much better day for the starting offense as their one drive resulted in 12 plays, 72 yards and a touchdown. Two things were noticeably different from the Steelers game. The first was obviously the offensive line played better. There was the one 3rd down breakdown (probably O'Cyrus Torrence's first real pass pro failure of pre-season) where Josh had to be superman to make a play but in general they held their own up front and continue to look effective as run blockers. The second was the establishment of some quick game. And that was missing in action last week. Some of the excuses were that the Bills weren't game planning. Nobody is asking for game planning just some semblance of a quick game to help their line. It was missing much of last season too and I think we will need it as the season progresses. Josh looked sharp and on point, Diggs got a couple of balls, Cook looked good and the Bills moved the chains. The one further observation was the number of different personnel groupings and formations - I think we saw some 11, some 12, some 21, some 10.

Christian Benford - Dane Jackson has been the leader in the clubhouse in the three man battle for CB2 since camp opened but right at the last it looks like outsider Benford may have stolen the job. The former 6th rounder out of Villanova got the start opposite Tre White and had a nice pass breakup and a good tackle in run support while just generally looking like he had good coverage most snaps he played. Jackson came in on the 2nd drive when they sat Tre down and did nothing wrong but I'd make Benford the favourite to start week 1.

Siran Neal - Siran Neal has been unlucky not to make my good night list in the first two weeks because he has been one of the best Bills players in pre-season. He began it competing with Cam Lewis for the #2 nickel job but that competition has been won comprehensively and he had two endzone pass breakups yesterday as well as being active as a tackler in the open field. He was always making the roster as an elite gunner on coverage units but his play on defense probably saves the Bills a roster spot that they may have thought they needed for a backup nickel. Which probably means Cam Lewis and the impressive Ja'Marcus Ingram are headed for the practice squad.

Trent Sherfield - I think the Bills staff will love this guy. I don't know that there is a single special trait that separates him out as a receiver but he does a bit of everything. He had a nice catch over the middle yesterday, a nice out route where he demonstrated some short area separation talent and then attracted a DPI on a deep ball where he got behind the defence. Add that to his blocking, his special teams play and his versatility and he was built to play for a Sean McDermott team. He has already shown me he is an upgrade as the #3 outside receiver over and above what they had with Jake Kumerow and John Brown in 2022. How much run he gets in the regular season will be interesting to monitor.

Damien Harris - Seven rushes for 25 yards might not have wowed anyone on Harris's pre-season debut but it was a positive step forward that he could get on the field. A guy with his injury history missing the whole pre-season might just have put a nagging doubt in the head of Brandon Beane about whether this experiment was worth persisting with - especially with Mims and Evans showing well as the 3rd and 4th back in his absence. But Harris showed a bit of burst and did something the Bills have earmarked him for - ploughed into the endzone in a goalline package. I doubt his yards per attempt numbers will wow anyone by the end of the regular season either, but I wouldn't be surprised if his first down conversion and touchdown numbers are impressive.

 

 

Bad Night for...

 

Kaiir Elam - Elam makes it a hattrick in the bad night column. Some of that has been about his own play on the field, especially week 2 vs Pittsburgh, but some of it has been about his usage. Week 1 he was platooned with Dane Jackson in the first team defense, by week 3 he was the 4th man up and only got in once the Bills had really gone to what was a mixture of 2s and 3s. If Benford has won the CB2 competition from the back of the pack Elam has gone in the other direction. He is still struggling with those transitions in zone. I think it is the main thing keeping him off the field, his understanding of where to give cushion, when the break on the ball and just the mechanical function of adjusting his body from one to the other. Last night's usage said to me he is 4th of 4 among our boundary corners. Some of that is on him, some of it is on the Bills who just haven't managed to mesh the player they picked with their scheme. 

 

Damar Hamlin - I will preface this by saying I think Damar Hamlin will make the roster. But I think he might have Siran Neal to thank for that. Because if Neal hadn't been so impressive as the nickel #2 I could well have imagined the Bills giving the final safety spot to Cam Lewis for his ability to play nickel as well. Damar was poor last week and he struggled again. Out of position, a huge whiff on the tackle on DJ Moore that led to a big gain and just generally struggling to make an impact. In his favour he is always willing, he plays with maximum effort, I'm just not sure his pre-season has been particularly strong. It's also worth considering the balance of the safety room. If Hamlin and Rapp are the backups they lack a true center fielder behind Hyde. Because Poyer can play both spots maybe they worry less about that but it might factor in if Damar is a surprise cut this week. 

 

AJ Epenesa - This was the full AJ Epenesa experience. A sack and another good pressure but two bad overrurns when he takes the wide attack angle that led to long Quarterback escapes - the first play of that third drive where Fields scampered for 13 and a first down and the touchdown run from the backup QB. And it is not like this is the first time we have seen it. I go back to 2021 when he had a strong start to the season but began to lose reps after a similar loss of contain saw Taylor Heinicke escape for a rushing touchdown. It has been a persistent problem. In the three drives where there was some semblance of first team defense in the Bills rotated the right defensive end. Boogie got the first drive. Leonard Floyd got the second. AJE got the third. That might just have been the planned rotation but it is reasonable to ask whether it represents where they stand in order of preference. It is a change from the start of pre-season where Epenesa was the first guy in. While the consensus seemed to be that AJ had the stronger camp, the pre-season games so far have probably been a win for Boogie. 

 

Justin Shorter - Let's start this by reminding ourselves where Shorter stands in the wide receiver pecking order. He is at best the 5th guy on the depth chart and at best the 4th outside guy on the depth chart after Diggs, Davis and the aforementioned Sherfield. He does have being a 5th round draft pick this year in his favour but to make the 53 he is going to have to play teams. To that end failing to come down with a contested catch along the far sideline probably hurts less than losing his discipline as a gunner that led to a 56 yard return. He tried to cheat inside, got greedy looking to go for the ball carrier, ran straight into a block and left a huge hole for Scott to burst through. He has to stay patient there... stay in his line and force Scott to keep running laterally. I think the hope with Shorter was that he would justify his spot on the roster this year as a gunner allowing him time to develop as a receiver. I still think that likely is what happens - but he didn't help himself yesterday. 

 

Gabriel Davis - I put Gabe last because he is going to be on the roster and he is going to start so he doesn't have much to lose in the immediate term from his underwhelming pre-season. The most concerning play to me is the very first drop because it validates the criticism that people have made of Gabe which is that in the shorter areas he isn't adding much value to the Bills offense. He isn't a big short area quickness guy who will generate separation with his burst. He has a decent release package and decent body control and so the exact type of play that you think plays to his strengths if you are using him in the shorter zones is a slant. But Quarterbacks and Offensive Coordinators get very wary of throwing slants into traffic to guys who don't come up with the catch. And if you can't use him there you are resigned to him being a low volume, high output, deep shot guy who runs go routes, post routes and comebacks. You can run a successful offense with that type of #2 receiver.... but your variety will have to come from elsewhere which puts a lot of pressure on Kincaid, Knox, Harty and Sherfield to pick up the slack otherwise teams will just key in on Stefon Diggs the entire year. 

 

 

There we go folks. We're on to the Jets! 

Great stuff, Gunner.  Just fabulous.  I quoted it just so I can respond to several points.  I simply didn't bother to figure out how I could watch the preseason games until yesterday, when I got the game first on my phone, then on my laptop.  Never bothered to get it all the way up onto the television.  I didn't listen, just watched.  I don't know the players numbers (at one point watching I replay I actually asked myself who #14 was!), so I got a holistic view of the game and the team.   My reaction was "this is a good team."  I missed the opening drive, so I wasn't even reacting to the starters on offense.  I was reacting to the look of the team, how they executed, how they managed the game, third downs, etc.  I could see plays that were missed, but then I noticed that missed plays are always part of the game.  Not every drive ends in a touchdown (except once on an absolutely glorious night in Orchard Park), and not every defensive drive ends with a takeaway or a three and out.   Watching it all, what I saw was a good team.   I'm ready for the season.

 

One thing that I was struck by was the Bills' tackling.  It was crisp and sure.  Someone was always attacking the ball carrier.  And I noticed that a lot of the time it was Neal.  First time, I thought, "good for you."  Second time, I thought, "nice."  Third time was, "hmm, this guy has to be on the team."  His active, attacking open-field pursuit and tackling is superior.  So, I agree about Neal.

 

I didn't see the starters, but I agree about rhythm.   This was a team playing football the way the team wants to play football.   In the game there are lots of ups and downs, but the team was a unit taking the ups and downs in stride and dictating the overall flow of the game.   (I didn't see the end; apparently, there was some classic late-game nail biting, so I'm sure some will say the Bills still have work to do, and I won't argue.)

 

Happy to hear about Benford.  Frankly, what you describe is what I thought I was seeing last season.  He's a very good defensive back.  If Elam turns out to be depth, well that's too bad when we're evaluating hits and misses in the draft, but there's no reason not to celebrate the Benford hit as much as we may despair over the Elam miss.  

 

The Harris runs I saw were excellent.  Better than I imagined.  Excited to know he's the guy who can spell. Cook.  I s till think Murray, too, will have an important role.   And you didn't mention Evans, who really showed me skills on multiple plays.  

 

By late last season I was convinced that Hamlin can't be an answer at safety.  He does everything as well as he possible can, but that's just not quite good enough. 

 

Disappointed about Epenesa, but he's been a pretty consistent story, always not quite what he needs to be. 

 

Shorter, on the other hand, is a rookie.  Sure, he may have blown a play on special teams, but just like the Bills didn't give up on Epenesa or Neal when they made rookie mistakes, the Bills will give up on Shorter now, at least I don't think so.  The Bills are about continuous improvement, and they are going to work with Shorter and trust that he will improve.   (And, by the way, that's what's disappointing about Elam.  The Bills aren't likely to give up on him yet, but he's supposed to be learning lessons and improving (like Neal), and that doesn't seem to be happening.)

 

You're right, Davis is a lock.  I've been saying in other threads that part of the problem is that the Bills offense has to be run in a way that makes the Bills less dependent on him.   He's just a weapon on the offense, not a go-to guy.   Just like Cook and Knox and several others.   They're weapons, not go-to.  Diggs is the go-to guy, and maybe Kincaid will become one.  

 

But reading you analysis and remembering what was said about Sherfield's history, is Sherfield the #2, with some combination of Kincaid and Harty and Shakir in the slot?

 

Thanks again for your analysis.  It's top-notch.

 

 

 

 

[PBF81]

32 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

2. Harty is making the team. I see no way he isn't. He hasn't wowed me, to say the least, in pre-season but he is in. 

 

Harty's got a nearly $5M dead-cap hit, there's no way that they're going absorb that.  

 

 

Edited August 27, 2023 by PBF81

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

Harty's got a nearly $5M cap hit, there's no way that they're going absorb that.  

 

 

 

You mean dead cap if cut rather than cap hit but I agree. They are not gonna absorb that based on a "meh" pre-season.

[PBF81]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You mean dead cap if cut rather than cap hit but I agree. They are not gonna absorb that based on a "meh" pre-season.

 

Yeah, thanks, my bad.  Corrected.  

 

 

[NickelCity]

It would be so curious to see if our offense would have more sustainable drives with Sherfield as #2. 

 

I like Gabe but he almost encourages the clunky out-of-rhythm passing game we saw at times last year.

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Can easily see Sherfield taking more and more of Gabe’s reps.  Not sure what Davis dies so much better than Sherfield that overcomes Gabe’s drive-killing drops.  

This will definitely be Gabe's last season in Buffalo. He is just way too inconsistent and the drops never end.  Sherfield deserves to take a portion of Gabe's targets.

 

Please let Neal play ahead of Lewis in pretty much every capacity.  Harris will be our goal line TD maker.

 

If the braintrust thinks Benford is the CB2 then full steam ahead.  I still can't understand the Elam pick if your scheme is zone. Makes zero sense. 

 

The Basham / Epenesa picks were bad and hopefully we can still salvage something with a trade.

[Sierra Foothills]

51 minutes ago, ganesh said:

I am really concerned how the Special Teams have played in the pre-season games.  They have been terrible.   We have had wonderful special teams the past several years; But this is not looking like any of that.

 

Yes they have been poor this preseason but color me unconcerned.

 

As @GunnerBill mentioned at 83 players there's a combo of avoiding injuries and seeing where fringe players fit in. A lack of cohesiveness in special teams is common across the league in the preseason.

 

40 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

2. Harty is making the team. I see no way he isn't. He hasn't wowed me, to say the least, in pre-season but he is in. I think Isabella playing a fair way into the 4th post the return game fumble is a sign he is now facing a battle to make it.

 

No one's mentioned how good Harty looked yesterday on his 3 punt returns. He didn't break any but you could see his fearlessness, elite agility, and vision upfield. If he has that role and stay healthy he's gonna be an excellent punt returner. He's averaged almost 10 yards per return over his career.

 

Harty also looked good from scrimmage. IF he stays healthy which is a legit concern, I'm pretty sure he's going to outproduce and outplay what Isaiah McKenzie gave us last year.

 

38 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

It's kinda funny, last week everything sucked, this week everything's great.  LOL   Not to get in on that emotional fray, let's also realize that even with Chicago's starters on both sides, they were terrible on both offense and defense last season.  I'm not sure that it's the goal of teams to win in the preseason, seems that coaches are trying to evaluate players, or get them in real-game thinking mode anyway.

 

People on this board overreact to everything the Bills do.

 

I was also glad to see the resurrection of the short passing game. Contrary to belief, Josh Allen is a very accurate short thrower. He can flick his wrist and place balls horizontally very effectively. His completion percentage went down last year (adding to the myth that he's not an accurate thrower) because of the throws he was trying to make on a constant basis.

 

I still don't know if Dorsey doesn't reign Josh in enough or if Josh has too much leash or if they're both fixated on the big strike but this offense needs to use the horizontal Brady-type game more to open up the throws downfield. Overall they'd be a much more effective offense with a little more restraint.

 

 

[AuntieEm]

1 hour ago, Herb Nightly said:

Average of 15 per game is a total of 255. That is not going to happen ; the record is 205.

Sure means it is unlikely to happen but records do get broken.  I can see it possible because I expect our offense to be very good.  Will it happen probably low odds but certainly not a never gonna happen take.