Good Night / Bad Night - Pre-season game 3

[GunnerBill]

Pre-season 2023 is in the books now all eyes are on the cuts tracker. I think the Bills have generally started their moves the day before so I expect we will see movement on Monday. The deadline for the 53 is 4pm Tuesday. Let's have a look at who helped themselves and who hurt themselves in the 24-21 victory over Chicago.

 

Good Night for...

 

Offensive Rhythm - Much better day for the starting offense as their one drive resulted in 12 plays, 72 yards and a touchdown. Two things were noticeably different from the Steelers game. The first was obviously the offensive line played better. There was the one 3rd down breakdown (probably O'Cyrus Torrence's first real pass pro failure of pre-season) where Josh had to be superman to make a play but in general they held their own up front and continue to look effective as run blockers. The second was the establishment of some quick game. And that was missing in action last week. Some of the excuses were that the Bills weren't game planning. Nobody is asking for game planning just some semblance of a quick game to help their line. It was missing much of last season too and I think we will need it as the season progresses. Josh looked sharp and on point, Diggs got a couple of balls, Cook looked good and the Bills moved the chains. The one further observation was the number of different personnel groupings and formations - I think we saw some 11, some 12, some 21, some 10.

Christian Benford - Dane Jackson has been the leader in the clubhouse in the three man battle for CB2 since camp opened but right at the last it looks like outsider Benford may have stolen the job. The former 6th rounder out of Villanova got the start opposite Tre White and had a nice pass breakup and a good tackle in run support while just generally looking like he had good coverage most snaps he played. Jackson came in on the 2nd drive when they sat Tre down and did nothing wrong but I'd make Benford the favourite to start week 1.

Siran Neal - Siran Neal has been unlucky not to make my good night list in the first two weeks because he has been one of the best Bills players in pre-season. He began it competing with Cam Lewis for the #2 nickel job but that competition has been won comprehensively and he had two endzone pass breakups yesterday as well as being active as a tackler in the open field. He was always making the roster as an elite gunner on coverage units but his play on defense probably saves the Bills a roster spot that they may have thought they needed for a backup nickel. Which probably means Cam Lewis and the impressive Ja'Marcus Ingram are headed for the practice squad.

Trent Sherfield - I think the Bills staff will love this guy. I don't know that there is a single special trait that separates him out as a receiver but he does a bit of everything. He had a nice catch over the middle yesterday, a nice out route where he demonstrated some short area separation talent and then attracted a DPI on a deep ball where he got behind the defence. Add that to his blocking, his special teams play and his versatility and he was built to play for a Sean McDermott team. He has already shown me he is an upgrade as the #3 outside receiver over and above what they had with Jake Kumerow and John Brown in 2022. How much run he gets in the regular season will be interesting to monitor.

Damien Harris - Seven rushes for 25 yards might not have wowed anyone on Harris's pre-season debut but it was a positive step forward that he could get on the field. A guy with his injury history missing the whole pre-season might just have put a nagging doubt in the head of Brandon Beane about whether this experiment was worth persisting with - especially with Mims and Evans showing well as the 3rd and 4th back in his absence. But Harris showed a bit of burst and did something the Bills have earmarked him for - ploughed into the endzone in a goalline package. I doubt his yards per attempt numbers will wow anyone by the end of the regular season either, but I wouldn't be surprised if his first down conversion and touchdown numbers are impressive.

 

 

Bad Night for...

 

Kaiir Elam - Elam makes it a hattrick in the bad night column. Some of that has been about his own play on the field, especially week 2 vs Pittsburgh, but some of it has been about his usage. Week 1 he was platooned with Dane Jackson in the first team defense, by week 3 he was the 4th man up and only got in once the Bills had really gone to what was a mixture of 2s and 3s. If Benford has won the CB2 competition from the back of the pack Elam has gone in the other direction. He is still struggling with those transitions in zone. I think it is the main thing keeping him off the field, his understanding of where to give cushion, when the break on the ball and just the mechanical function of adjusting his body from one to the other. Last night's usage said to me he is 4th of 4 among our boundary corners. Some of that is on him, some of it is on the Bills who just haven't managed to mesh the player they picked with their scheme. 

 

Damar Hamlin - I will preface this by saying I think Damar Hamlin will make the roster. But I think he might have Siran Neal to thank for that. Because if Neal hadn't been so impressive as the nickel #2 I could well have imagined the Bills giving the final safety spot to Cam Lewis for his ability to play nickel as well. Damar was poor last week and he struggled again. Out of position, a huge whiff on the tackle on DJ Moore that led to a big gain and just generally struggling to make an impact. In his favour he is always willing, he plays with maximum effort, I'm just not sure his pre-season has been particularly strong. It's also worth considering the balance of the safety room. If Hamlin and Rapp are the backups they lack a true center fielder behind Hyde. Because Poyer can play both spots maybe they worry less about that but it might factor in if Damar is a surprise cut this week. 

 

AJ Epenesa - This was the full AJ Epenesa experience. A sack and another good pressure but two bad overrurns when he takes the wide attack angle that led to long Quarterback escapes - the first play of that third drive where Fields scampered for 13 and a first down and the touchdown run from the backup QB. And it is not like this is the first time we have seen it. I go back to 2021 when he had a strong start to the season but began to lose reps after a similar loss of contain saw Taylor Heinicke escape for a rushing touchdown. It has been a persistent problem. In the three drives where there was some semblance of first team defense in the Bills rotated the right defensive end. Boogie got the first drive. Leonard Floyd got the second. AJE got the third. That might just have been the planned rotation but it is reasonable to ask whether it represents where they stand in order of preference. It is a change from the start of pre-season where Epenesa was the first guy in. While the consensus seemed to be that AJ had the stronger camp, the pre-season games so far have probably been a win for Boogie. 

 

Justin Shorter - Let's start this by reminding ourselves where Shorter stands in the wide receiver pecking order. He is at best the 5th guy on the depth chart and at best the 4th outside guy on the depth chart after Diggs, Davis and the aforementioned Sherfield. He does have being a 5th round draft pick this year in his favour but to make the 53 he is going to have to play teams. To that end failing to come down with a contested catch along the far sideline probably hurts less than losing his discipline as a gunner that led to a 56 yard return. He tried to cheat inside, got greedy looking to go for the ball carrier, ran straight into a block and left a huge hole for Scott to burst through. He has to stay patient there... stay in his line and force Scott to keep running laterally. I think the hope with Shorter was that he would justify his spot on the roster this year as a gunner allowing him time to develop as a receiver. I still think that likely is what happens - but he didn't help himself yesterday. 

 

Gabriel Davis - I put Gabe last because he is going to be on the roster and he is going to start so he doesn't have much to lose in the immediate term from his underwhelming pre-season. The most concerning play to me is the very first drop because it validates the criticism that people have made of Gabe which is that in the shorter areas he isn't adding much value to the Bills offense. He isn't a big short area quickness guy who will generate separation with his burst. He has a decent release package and decent body control and so the exact type of play that you think plays to his strengths if you are using him in the shorter zones is a slant. But Quarterbacks and Offensive Coordinators get very wary of throwing slants into traffic to guys who don't come up with the catch. And if you can't use him there you are resigned to him being a low volume, high output, deep shot guy who runs go routes, post routes and comebacks. You can run a successful offense with that type of #2 receiver.... but your variety will have to come from elsewhere which puts a lot of pressure on Kincaid, Knox, Harty and Sherfield to pick up the slack otherwise teams will just key in on Stefon Diggs the entire year. 

 

 

There we go folks. We're on to the Jets! 

[BillsFooteball]

Agree with your list. Can’t even single out just one but terrible game for entire special teams until. Though I thought Dodson looked better this week (not hard to improve from) my biggest concern remains MLB Backup QB- for every good play I see from Allen I see 2-3 bad ones. A more serviceable backup would be nice but let’s be real if god forbid josh goes down for any significant period of time, bills would be doomed as would be case for any elite QB

[GunnerBill]

Just now, BillsFooteball said:

Agree with your list. Can’t even single out just one but terrible game for entire special teams until. Though I thought Dodson looked better this week (not hard to improve from) my biggest concern remains MLB Backup QB- for every good play I see from Allen I see 2-3 bad ones. A more serviceable backup would be nice but let’s be real if god forbid josh goes down for any significant period of time, bills would be doomed as would be case for any elite QB

 

Agree. It was Dodson's best game of the 3 but that doesn't mean he was good because you are right.... low bar! 

 

Similarly on Kyle... if the question is "has he beaten off Barkley now?" Then sure, good night. If the question is "will this have reassured Beane who we know was in the QB market this week?" Then I think the answer is no way.

[BillsFan2313]

33 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Pre-season 2023 is in the books now all eyes are on the cuts tracker. I think the Bills have generally started their moves the day before so I expect we will see movement on Monday. The deadline for the 53 is 4pm Tuesday. Let's have a look at who helped themselves and who hurt themselves in the 24-21 victory over Chicago.

 

Good Night for...

 

Offensive Rhythm - Much better day for the starting offense as their one drive resulted in 12 plays, 72 yards and a touchdown. Two things were noticeably different from the Steelers game. The first was obviously the offensive line played better. There was the one 3rd down breakdown (probably O'Cyrus Torrence's first real pass pro failure of pre-season) where Josh had to be superman to make a play but in general they held their own up front and continue to look effective as run blockers. The second was the establishment of some quick game. And that was missing in action last week. Some of the excuses were that the Bills weren't game planning. Nobody is asking for game planning just some semblance of a quick game to help their line. It was missing much of last season too and I think we will need it as the season progresses. Josh looked sharp and on point, Diggs got a couple of balls, Cook looked good and the Bills moved the chains. The one further observation was the number of different personnel groupings and formations - I think we saw some 11, some 12, some 21, some 10.

Christian Benford - Dane Jackson has been the leader in the clubhouse in the three man battle for CB2 since camp opened but right at the last it looks like outsider Benford may have stolen the job. The former 6th rounder out of Villanova got the start opposite Tre White and had a nice pass breakup and a good tackle in run support while just generally looking like he had good coverage most snaps he played. Jackson came in on the 2nd drive when they sat Tre down and did nothing wrong but I'd make Benford the favourite to start week 1.

Siran Neal - Siran Neal has been unlucky not to make my good night list in the first two weeks because he has been one of the best Bills players in pre-season. He began it competing with Cam Lewis for the #2 nickel job but that competition has been won comprehensively and he had two endzone pass breakups yesterday as well as being active as a tackler in the open field. He was always making the roster as an elite gunner on coverage units but his play on defense probably saves the Bills a roster spot that they may have thought they needed for a backup nickel. Which probably means Cam Lewis and the impressive Ja'Marcus Ingram are headed for the practice squad.

Trent Sherfield - I think the Bills staff will love this guy. I don't know that there is a single special trait that separates him out as a receiver but he does a bit of everything. He had a nice catch over the middle yesterday, a nice out route where he demonstrated some short area separation talent and then attracted a DPI on a deep ball where he got behind the defence. Add that to his blocking, his special teams play and his versatility and he was built to play for a Sean McDermott team. He has already shown me he is an upgrade as the #3 outside receiver over and above what they had with Jake Kumerow and John Brown in 2022. How much run he gets in the regular season will be interesting to monitor.

Damien Harris - Seven rushes for 25 yards might not have wowed anyone on Harris's pre-season debut but it was a positive step forward that he could get on the field. A guy with his injury history missing the whole pre-season might just have put a nagging doubt in the head of Brandon Beane about whether this experiment was worth persisting with - especially with Mims and Evans showing well as the 3rd and 4th back in his absence. But Harris showed a bit of burst and did something the Bills have earmarked him for - ploughed into the endzone in a goalline package. I doubt his yards per attempt numbers will wow anyone by the end of the regular season either, but I wouldn't be surprised if his first down conversion and touchdown numbers are impressive.

 

 

Bad Night for...

 

Kaiir Elam - Elam makes it a hattrick in the bad night column. Some of that has been about his own play on the field, especially week 2 vs Pittsburgh, but some of it has been about his usage. Week 1 he was platooned with Dane Jackson in the first team defense, by week 3 he was the 4th man up and only got in once the Bills had really gone to what was a mixture of 2s and 3s. If Benford has won the CB2 competition from the back of the pack Elam has gone in the other direction. He is still struggling with those transitions in zone. I think it is the main thing keeping him off the field, his understanding of where to give cushion, when the break on the ball and just the mechanical function of adjusting his body from one to the other. Last night's usage said to me he is 4th of 4 among our boundary corners. Some of that is on him, some of it is on the Bills who just haven't managed to mesh the player they picked with their scheme. 

 

Damar Hamlin - I will preface this by saying I think Damar Hamlin will make the roster. But I think he might have Siran Neal to thank for that. Because if Neal hadn't been so impressive as the nickel #2 I could well have imagined the Bills giving the final safety spot to Cam Lewis for his ability to play nickel as well. Damar was poor last week and he struggled again. Out of position, a huge whiff on the tackle on DJ Moore that led to a big gain and just generally struggling to make an impact. In his favour he is always willing, he plays with maximum effort, I'm just not sure his pre-season has been particularly strong. It's also worth considering the balance of the safety room. If Hamlin and Rapp are the backups they lack a true center fielder behind Hyde. Because Poyer can play both spots maybe they worry less about that but it might factor in if Damar is a surprise cut this week. 

 

AJ Epenesa - This was the full AJ Epenesa experience. A sack and another good pressure but two bad overrurns when he takes the wide attack angle that led to long Quarterback escapes - the first play of that third drive where Fields scampered for 13 and a first down and the touchdown run from the backup QB. And it is not like this is the first time we have seen it. I go back to 2021 when he had a strong start to the season but began to lose reps after a similar loss of contain saw Taylor Heinicke escape for a rushing touchdown. It has been a persistent problem. In the three drives where there was some semblance of first team defense in the Bills rotated the right defensive end. Boogie got the first drive. Leonard Floyd got the second. AJE got the third. That might just have been the planned rotation but it is reasonable to ask whether it represents where they stand in order of preference. It is a change from the start of pre-season where Epenesa was the first guy in. While the consensus seemed to be that AJ had the stronger camp, the pre-season games so far have probably been a win for Boogie. 

 

Justin Shorter - Let's start this by reminding ourselves where Shorter stands in the wide receiver pecking order. He is at best the 5th guy on the depth chart and at best the 4th outside guy on the depth chart after Diggs, Davis and the aforementioned Sherfield. He does have being a 5th round draft pick this year in his favour but to make the 53 he is going to have to play teams. To that end failing to come down with a contested catch along the far sideline probably hurts less than losing his discipline as a gunner that led to a 56 yard return. He tried to cheat inside, got greedy looking to go for the ball carrier, ran straight into a block and left a huge hole for Scott to burst through. He has to stay patient there... stay in his line and force Scott to keep running laterally. I think the hope with Shorter was that he would justify his spot on the roster this year as a gunner allowing him time to develop as a receiver. I still think that likely is what happens - but he didn't help himself yesterday. 

 

Gabriel Davis - I put Gabe last because he is going to be on the roster and he is going to start so he doesn't have much to lose in the immediate term from his underwhelming pre-season. The most concerning play to me is the very first drop because it validates the criticism that people have made of Gabe which is that in the shorter areas he isn't adding much value to the Bills offense. He isn't a big short area quickness guy who will generate separation with his burst. He has a decent release package and decent body control and so the exact type of play that you think plays to his strengths if you are using him in the shorter zones is a slant. But Quarterbacks and Offensive Coordinators get very wary of throwing slants into traffic to guys who don't come up with the catch. And if you can't use him there you are resigned to him being a low volume, high output, deep shot guy who runs go routes, post routes and comebacks. You can run a successful offense with that type of #2 receiver.... but your variety will have to come from elsewhere which puts a lot of pressure on Kincaid, Knox, Harty and Sherfield to pick up the slack otherwise teams will just key in on Stefon Diggs the entire year. 

 

 

There we go folks. We're on to the Jets! 

 

The Elam pick is looking more and more like a panic pick because they missed out on mcduffie, and needed a corner. 

[Dr. Who]

8 minutes ago, BillsFan2313 said:

 

The Elam pick is looking more and more like a panic pick because they missed out on mcduffie, and needed a corner. 

McDuffie's short arms would make him an outlier for the metric that appears to be part of what Beane and McD look for in a corner.

Doubt he was their choice. @GunnerBill has talked about this numerous times.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

McDuffie's short arms would make him an outlier for the metric that appears to be part of what Beane and McD look for in a corner.

Doubt he was their choice. @GunnerBill has talked about this numerous times.

 

Yea I think Elam was always the guy. 

[BuffaloRebound]

Can easily see Sherfield taking more and more of Gabe’s reps.  Not sure what Davis dies so much better than Sherfield that overcomes Gabe’s drive-killing drops.  

[BillsFan2313]

13 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

McDuffie's short arms would make him an outlier for the metric that appears to be part of what Beane and McD look for in a corner.

Doubt he was their choice. @GunnerBill has talked about this numerous times.

 

Ok

[boyst]

What in the world is a favourite? 🤮

[LEBills]

Kincaid despite getting blown up on his block on the Harty swing pass, also drew a holding in the Endzone and had the long pass interference. Doesn’t show up on the stat sheet but both were huge plays that you see veterans make. 
 

It is pretty obvious, and maybe does not need to be mentioned, but Diggs was phenomenal. And interestingly, he got a lot of slot snaps with Harty playing outside. And he dominated. If people were not sure whether to draft him in the first round of your fantasy draft, do it. I think we are in for the best season of his career.

 

I also don’t feel Shorter has done much to earn a roster spot, this was the second time he lost contain on the outside which set up a huge returns. He and Rapp were the culprits last week too. Unfortunately, Shavers allowed the punt block too and Isabella fumbled his return (though I do see him out there on kick coverage trying his best). So no potential WR6 stepped up on that side of the ball so I think it default will go to Shorter.

Edited August 27, 2023 by LEBills

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Add that to his blocking, his special teams play and his versatility and he was built to play for a Sean McDermott team

1. In putting together a toolbox, how many swiss army knives are desireable?  
2. You discuss Shorter and Sherfield. Curious to where you think last nights game left Harty and Isabella?

[JerseyBills]

Fair list. My biggest takeaway was how the O called plays. Motion, lot if different formations and finally QUICK reads for 17. It just keeps the D off balance, Cook had some easy holes for nice gains. And obviously Josh can hit the deep ball at any time. That 1 drive looked very similar to the NE massacre on WC weekend

1 minute ago, LEBills said:

Kincaid despite getting blown up on his block on the Harty swing pass, also drew a holding in the Endzone and had the long pass interference. Doesn’t show up on the stat sheet but both were huge plays that you see veterans make. 
 

It is pretty obvious, and maybe does not need to be mentioned, but Diggs was phenomenal. And interestingly, he got a lot of slot snaps with Harty playing outside. And he dominated. If people were not sure whether to draft him in the first round of your fantasy draft, do it. I think we are in for the best season of his career.

 

I also don’t feel Shorter has done much to earn a roster spot, this was the second time he lost contain on the outside which set up a huge returns. He and Rapp were the culprits last week too. Unfortunately, Shavers allowed the punt block too and Isabella fumbled his return (though I do see him out there on kick coverage trying his best). So no potential WR6 stepped up on that side of the ball so I think it default will go to Shorter.

Agreed on Diggs, I could see him going crazy, he should get close to 15 targets per game, going to be tough to double him. I had draft last night,  wanted him round 2 cause Saquon was sticking out in rd 1 but missed out. 

[BillsFan130]

Spot on about Epenasa, He drives me crazy.

 

I am sure he will finish the season with descent stats again, but his lack of contain in the pocket on numerous occasions is inexcusable 

[Goin Breakdown]

40 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I think Elam was always the guy. 

It's hard to think that a team that mainly plays zone would target a guy who had only played man. You could be right though. These coaches think they can turn any player into a star. 

[ChevyVanMiller]

I’ve been impressed with the play of WR Marcell Ateman. He seems to have no shot at the 53, but I’m hoping he makes the PS. Sure-handed, big-bodied receiver that gets open. Reminds me of Isiah Hodgins with a bit more speed.

[NewEra]

Helluva write up GB.  Thanks for taking the time to write these each week. 
 

Starting to wonder if Beane will look to trade Epenesa.  Boogie has earned his spot and has a year under contract. AJ is as good as gone after the season imo, maybe we can get a 4th or 5th.  He stole a 5th fro Az for Cody ford, maybe he can pull off some more magic. 

 

I watched the game on my phone while I was driving, so I didn’t get to see the game very well.  I didn’t notice 86 at all.  It seemed to me that on the offensive drive with the starters was mostly 11 personnel.  Was that the case?  I was hoping that we wouldn’t show anymore Kincaid cards to the league. Did he get any snaps?  
 

great to see Neal finally showing some worth as a DB. He has all the tools to be a starter.  Similar to Elam in that way.  Maybe Elam will figure it out by year 6-7 while on another team

 

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

10 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

It's hard to think that a team that mainly plays zone would target a guy who had only played man. You could be right though. These coaches think they can turn any player into a star. 

 

With justification IMO. They teach Dbs and produce good players

[Dave_Bills]

I just don’t understand AJE’s lack of ability to contain. This is year 3 and he appears to be an intelligent enough young man. The inability to stay disciplined has been exasperating and I don’t know how the coaches can trust him. 

[buffaloboyinATL]

21 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

It's hard to think that a team that mainly plays zone would target a guy who had only played man. You could be right though. These coaches think they can turn any player into a star. 

And seeing that we are getting great play from Dane Jackson and Benford, maybe they can.  

[MasterStrategist]

Thanks for write-up.  

 

AJE needs to "flatten" that rush when he gets 3-4 yards upfield, spin move/hand usage/something.  Boogie has less juice off the edge, still think AJE has more upside.

 

Cam Lewis played another solid game.  Not sure how we cut him, given our safety injury/age...he's gonna be scooped up if cut.

 

OL looked alot better on 1st team.  No surprise, as Dorsey tried more deep drops last week (likely a top 3 pass rush front in Steelers).  Ike looked bad, Q looked OK.  Edwards looks serviceable at LG, but hopefully Connor back for week 1 (likely best DL we play early on).  Vandemark likely backup LT, Q at RT.

 

I won't be surprised to see 2-3 guys make the initial 53, that aren't currently on roster (MLB, RT, QB if we keep 3).  Will Grier put up a nice game for Dallas, either will be cut or traded (former Carolina guy).  He'd be a nice P/S stash, if we could get him.