Bills @ Bears Game Day Thread?!?!?!?

[BuffaninSarasota]

1 hour ago, BigDingus said:

 

It provides a start. No stat provides ALL context, but in conjunction with what we've seen before, it still has value.

 

2020 - 35 receptions on 62 targets (58%)

2021 - 35 receptions on 63 targets (56%)

2022 - 48 receptions on 93 targets (52%)

 

So do QB's just throw worse every time he targets Gabe? Or was Gabe 1 for 4 today because he either doesn't run the best routes, drops passes, or isn't able to get seperation & fight off defenders? 

 

By comparison, here's Diggs:

 

2020 - 127 receptions on 166 targets (77%)

2021 - 103 receptions on 164 targets (63%)

2022 - 108 receptions on 154 targets (70%)

 

Guess Allen just throws better when targeting Diggs...

 

 

you cited the stats from today's game, that what I was alluding to

 

to wit:

 

  2 hours ago, syhuang said:

One is a bad throw become an interception and another is a good defense play where the cornerback has his hand on the ball. Can’t recall the 3rd one, but don’t get an impression Davis is inconsistent pulling the ball in when watching the game.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Josh looked pissed.

Not that it matters, the Bills were somehow stupid enough to have no competition for Davis....again. Mind boggling.

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

It provides a start. No stat provides ALL context, but in conjunction with what we've seen before, it still has value.

 

2020 - 35 receptions on 62 targets (58%)

2021 - 35 receptions on 63 targets (56%)

2022 - 48 receptions on 93 targets (52%)

 

So do QB's just throw worse every time he targets Gabe? Or was Gabe 1 for 4 today because he either doesn't run the best routes, drops passes, or isn't able to get seperation & fight off defenders? 

 

By comparison, here's Diggs:

 

2020 - 127 receptions on 166 targets (77%)

2021 - 103 receptions on 164 targets (63%)

2022 - 108 receptions on 154 targets (70%)

 

Guess Allen just throws better when targeting Diggs...

 

 

Personally, I think this is mostly on the QB.   

 

You know what they say about great #1s?   They say "he's open when he's covered."  In other words, the QB can throw it to him when he's covered, because he's really special fighting for the ball.  The same thing is rarely said about #2 receivers.   If a #2 receiver is open when he's covered, he becomes someone's #1.  

 

A lot of Davis's targets are ball that are contested catches.  The quarterback shouldn't be throwing the ball to him, because as a #2 almost by definition is not open when he's covered.   

 

The QB's job is to find the #1, and if he can't find the #1, he has to find the guy who is open.  Throwing contested catches to anyone but your #1 is a mistake.  With well designed modern passing routes, there's almost always an open receiver somewhere.  Find him and throw it to him.  

 

 

[Behindenemylines]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

99 years old.

 

He lives as close as he could to 100 without going over. Respect.

Winning post of the month!

[PatsFanNH]

32 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Personally, I think this is mostly on the QB.   

 

You know what they say about great #1s?   They say "he's open when he's covered."  In other words, the QB can throw it to him when he's covered, because he's really special fighting for the ball.  The same thing is rarely said about #2 receivers.   If a #2 receiver is open when he's covered, he becomes someone's #1.  

 

A lot of Davis's targets are ball that are contested catches.  The quarterback shouldn't be throwing the ball to him, because as a #2 almost by definition is not open when he's covered.   

 

The QB's job is to find the #1, and if he can't find the #1, he has to find the guy who is open.  Throwing contested catches to anyone but your #1 is a mistake.  With well designed modern passing routes, there's almost always an open receiver somewhere.  Find him and throw it to him.  

 

 

Wouldn’t the logical thing to just always throw to the open guy? I mean a guy named Brady had a decent career doing that. Lol

[Shaw66]

6 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Wouldn’t the logical thing to just always throw to the open guy? I mean a guy named Brady had a decent career doing that. Lol

Exactly.   

 

I haven't studied the stats, but I think last season Josh got greedy and threw downfield to Davis a lot because he was a big target, even though Davis wasn't really open. 

 

Find the open man and throw it to him.  

[balln]

10 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Wouldn’t the logical thing to just always throw to the open guy? I mean a guy named Brady had a decent career doing that. Lol

yea -  but the catch % stat is more about the WR than qb. over the course of 17 games and tons of pass attempts. guys like edelman and gronk either just get open , former, or just make contested catch after contested catch, latter, and thus their catch % are high. 

 

ijust think of the young group of wr - wilson, waddle, hill, devonte smtih - those guys GET OPEN. and then players like aj brown and all of cincys WR that just make contested catches

 

gabe just isnt a great WR2 for a championship team - for whatever reason - thats why the catch % stat is great. His hands suck sometimes/ awkward in game placement and his college scout takes and RAS shows hes not gonn be a good separation / route runner.  that one 4TD game in :13 seconds is fools gold. He had a good day. They were doubling diggs. He played against KC DB  scrubs that year

Edited August 27, 2023 by balln

[Simon]

4 minutes ago, balln said:

yea -  but the catch % stat is more about the WR than qb. over the course of 17 games and tons of pass attempts.

 

Probably also has something to do with the fact that he threw balls downfield more often to Davis, which are lower percentage plays.

[PatsFanNH]

1 minute ago, balln said:

yea -  but the catch % stat is more about the WR than qb. over the course of 17 games and tons of pass attempts. guys like edelman and gronk either just get open , former, or just make contested catch after contested catch and thus their catch % are high. 

 

ijust think of the young group of wr - wilson, waddle, hill, devonte smtih - those guys GET OPEN. and then players like aj brown and all of cincys WR that just make contested catches

 

gabe just isnt a great WR2 for a championship team - for whatever reason - thats why the catch % stat is great. His hands suck sometimes/ awkward in game placement and his college scout takes and RAS shows hes not gonn be a good separation / route runner.  that one 4TD game in :13 seconds is fools gold. He had a good day. They were doubling diggs. He played against KC DB  scrubs that year

I disagree. The catch % is just as much on the QB. If he is throwing it short and at his feet or throwing over his head or behind him that’s on the QB. The % is on the WR when it’s a good pass and not thrown into coverage.. (hard blame a guy for not coming down with a pass when he gets hammered the second it gets to him. )

 

You are also using something I hate being used in Sports.. Analytics… they say 78% of the time X will happen.. we’ll I say hitting the open WR will work almost 100% of the time and keep analytics out of it that killed baseball. 

[balln]

11 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

I disagree. The catch % is just as much on the QB. If he is throwing it short and at his feet or throwing over his head or behind him that’s on the QB. The % is on the WR when it’s a good pass and not thrown into coverage.. (hard blame a guy for not coming down with a pass when he gets hammered the second it gets to him. )

 

You are also using something I hate being used in Sports.. Analytics… they say 78% of the time X will happen.. we’ll I say hitting the open WR will work almost 100% of the time and keep analytics out of it that killed baseball. 

thats not the conclusion im making at all from that stat. nothingis perfect. it just tells me less passes should go to that player if im dorsey/allen.

Edited August 27, 2023 by balln

[maddenboy]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

This is classic Edmunds. Decides to give extra attention to the one WR that was already covered and lets Diggs run right by him uncontested.

this is classic Edmunds

Cant decide, so panics.   (you can almost hear him think "shtt.  what am i supposed to do now")

Cant decide because he still doesnt know that opponents are gonna take advantage of his indecision.  not just his wrong decisions.  Its like he doesnt study enough, or correctly. 

 

what you're 'supposed' to do is anticipate that presnap.  and maybe adjust a coverage call.  And trust that everybody knows that you will do exactly what youre supposed to.  which is your designed 1/11.  At full speed, decisively.

 

Edited August 27, 2023 by maddenboy

[balln]

10 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

Probably also has something to do with the fact that he threw balls downfield more often to Davis, which are lower percentage plays.

youd have to show me the depth of target for both of them. i bet its not too far apart

[Simon]

2 minutes ago, balln said:

youd have to show me the depth of target for both of them. i bet its not too far apart

 

I have no idea where to find that but I'd guess it's far enough apart to account for some of the differential, but certainly not for most of it.

[maddenboy]

4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Josh looked pissed.

funny. 

 

 (when gabe dropped that first pass in a preseason game that hit him correctly) I think each and every one of us looked instantly at Josh to see his reaction.   because . . . dood.  wtf? 

 

a part of me, when the camera panned to Josh, hoped josh would flash a glare at McD, not just at Gabe.

 

Edited August 27, 2023 by maddenboy

[BBFL]

Liked what i saw again from Jamarcus Ingram. Hope he sticks around in Buffalo, if not, pretty sure someone picks him up. 

[BBFL]

Also, I’m not seeing this elite speed from Harty & Sherfield…

[syhuang]

48 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

I have no idea where to find that but I'd guess it's far enough apart to account for some of the differential, but certainly not for most of it.

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-wr.php?team=BUF

 

2022 YBC/R (yards before catch per reception)

 

Diggs: 9.3yd

Davis: 14.4yd

[JohninMinn.]

15 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Will be fun to see Edmunds make tackles 15 yards up field again. If he plays.

I wonder if they know he piles on and injures teamates.

[Mark Vader]

10 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

Nice play by KeeSean johnson.

I'm stunned that you didn't say, "Throw Him The Damn Ball!"

[Richard Noggin]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Personally, I think this is mostly on the QB.   

 

You know what they say about great #1s?   They say "he's open when he's covered."  In other words, the QB can throw it to him when he's covered, because he's really special fighting for the ball.  The same thing is rarely said about #2 receivers.   If a #2 receiver is open when he's covered, he becomes someone's #1.  

 

A lot of Davis's targets are ball that are contested catches.  The quarterback shouldn't be throwing the ball to him, because as a #2 almost by definition is not open when he's covered.   

 

The QB's job is to find the #1, and if he can't find the #1, he has to find the guy who is open.  Throwing contested catches to anyone but your #1 is a mistake.  With well designed modern passing routes, there's almost always an open receiver somewhere.  Find him and throw it to him.  

 

 

 

If a WR's catch % is consistently below average, and also below other receivers that the SAME QB is throwing to, how can that be "mostly on the QB"? You aren't even considering Occam's Razor here. The simple, bigger picture objective truth is that throwing to Davis is Allen's lowest percentage option. (High reward, but too much risk for a high volume of targets.)

 

Davis' avg depth of target, and resulting eye-popping yards per reception, means we really should have more tolerance for lower efficiency numbers, for sure. Gabe Davis HAS undoubtedly flashed some splash deep and red zone plays against man coverage (we can all immediately recall a handful of plays concentrated mostly in a few games). I just can't ignore his bizarrely flawed catching fundamentals at times (that reaching/clapping thing he does when coming back to the ball, especially) and the times when he's just WAY out of sync with his QB when reading and reacting to coverages on option routes (sometimes easier to pick up on in person at the stadium). 

 

You see a lack of separation on routes that aren't flags, posts, or flies. He kind of sucks, statistically, doing much else. Drops a LOT of passes. Interrupts an offensive "schedule" too often to be a high volume, true #2 option over the course of a season.