Starting CB2...

[eball]

I often question the overall mental acuity of visitors to this site.

 

I think there are several givens here:

 

1 - you draft players in the 1st round you hope/expect to be above-average starters on your football team

2 - not all 1st round draft picks live up to this expectation (the “bust” rate — defined as non-Pro Bowl, <50 starts for career — is historically around 30%)

3 - if you “miss” on a 1st round draft pick, you have to fix it through lower round draft picks or FA

 

History says that 3 out of 10 times you’re going to miss on your 1st round pick.  The premise of this thread isn’t to give Beane a “break” for missing on Elam (if that is the case), but to ask a question about whether the team is in bad shape with three competent CB2 options.

 

 

[uticaclub]

Another hole in the roster that Josh Allen makes up for

[Orlando Buffalo]

8 hours ago, Airseven said:

Learning by fire isn’t worth the downside. He doesn’t grasp zone and he grabs at wideouts to keep up. He was handsy in college and now he’s stuck in an unnatural assignment. 
 

It should be reiterated Beane traded UP for Elam.

You and I disagree on where we are on him, which is no big deal, but my point on the throw him into the fire is that he will either learn quickly or we will learn he is a sunk cost. That being said he did play 50% of the snaps last year on a great defense so maybe we are all being too nitpicky. 

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Orlando Tim said:

You and I disagree on where we are on him, which is no big deal, but my point on the throw him into the fire is that he will either learn quickly or we will learn he is a sunk cost. That being said he did play 50% of the snaps last year on a great defense so maybe we are all being too nitpicky. 

 

I thought he played pretty well when he was out there last year for the most part and by the end of the year he was basically the starter in the playoffs (he started one, Dane started one, but Kaiir played more snaps than Dane in both). The worry is it sounds like he has been outperformed by Jackson and Benford in camp and has been disappointing in pre-season. At some point he has to earn his way onto the field in order to keep working those kinks out and perfecting his transitions in zone. 

[BarleyNY]

41 minutes ago, eball said:

I often question the overall mental acuity of visitors to this site.

 

I think there are several givens here:

 

1 - you draft players in the 1st round you hope/expect to be above-average starters on your football team

2 - not all 1st round draft picks live up to this expectation (the “bust” rate — defined as non-Pro Bowl, <50 starts for career — is historically around 30%)

3 - if you “miss” on a 1st round draft pick, you have to fix it through lower round draft picks or FA

 

History says that 3 out of 10 times you’re going to miss on your 1st round pick.  The premise of this thread isn’t to give Beane a “break” for missing on Elam (if that is the case), but to ask a question about whether the team is in bad shape with three competent CB2 options.

 

 

 

To answer your question at the end about how the team is doing at CB2, I’d say it’s serviceable. Let’s face it. If the Bills we’re happy with the guy who is starting now, then they wouldn’t have drafted Elam. But I also don’t look at CB2 in a vacuum. By itself it’s not so big a deal. But add in what we are looking at with our current MLB situation and the lack of pass rush I expect until Von Miller gets back to full health (if that ever happens) and I’m concerned with our defense. That doesn’t meant that I don’t really like much of the DL, Milano, Tre, Johnson and our safeties. I do. But I have concerns as to what’ll happen with little pass rush juice while Johnson and Klein (or whomever) are trying to cover. 

[eball]

15 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

To answer your question at the end about how the team is doing at CB2, I’d say it’s serviceable. Let’s face it. If the Bills we’re happy with the guy who is starting now, then they wouldn’t have drafted Elam. But I also don’t look at CB2 in a vacuum. By itself it’s not so big a deal. But add in what we are looking at with our current MLB situation and the lack of pass rush I expect until Von Miller gets back to full health (if that ever happens) and I’m concerned with our defense. That doesn’t meant that I don’t really like much of the DL, Milano, Tre, Johnson and our safeties. I do. But I have concerns as to what’ll happen with little pass rush juice while Johnson and Klein (or whomever) are trying to cover. 

 

My expectation is that McD will manufacture pressure if he can’t rely on the front four…but the Bills are very strong at DT and if Rousseau continues his progression along with Floyd and Epenesa, even without Von I think they’ll be ok to begin the season.

 

Elam’s not expensive enough that he really “hurts” them this year, and there is still a chance he “gets it” at some point because we did see some very good play down the stretch last season.

 

Last year’s draft is certainly a big question mark at this point, but it’s early…

 

[bobobonators]

Elam just turned 22. He will be 22 this entire season. He’s super young - let him develop. 

[White Linen]

13 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

As with all things it depends. If you are just talking play on the field then no it doesn’t matter much. If either are capable solid #2 CBs(assuming White is back to form) then the defense will be fine. However if you are talking about cap management, a #1 draft pick that is sitting on the sidelines is a massive waste of cap dollars that could have been allocated elsewhere.

 

No,  because the value you'd be getting out of the 5th rounder evens it right back out.

[SoCal Deek]

14 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I don't care which of the 3 wins the job if they then perform. But it is legit to say that a 1st rounder who can't beat out a former 7th rounder and a 6th rounder from his own class by year 2 is a bust of some description. 

 

And I hope if Benford or Jackson win it they have a plan that still involves Elam vs Tyreek

I wouldn’t go so far as to call Elam a bust. It could be that the later round player just happens to be really good. That’s not Elam’s fault. 

[Don Otreply]

9 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

And that’s the rub. The Bills have tried to improve on Jackson, but it hasn’t worked out yet. 

Jackson is a minor upgrade from Levi Wallace, and Wallace was mediocre at best, our “contain/shell” style defense is what needs adjustment, not tossed out per say,  but adjusted to take better advantage of player skills, why they picked an aggressive man coverage CB for a soft zone defense, and then not use him to his skill set is kinda Billsy, we shall see how this plays out won’t we…, 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I thought he played pretty well when he was out there last year for the most part and by the end of the year he was basically the starter in the playoffs (he started one, Dane started one, but Kaiir played more snaps than Dane in both). The worry is it sounds like he has been outperformed by Jackson and Benford in camp and has been disappointing in pre-season. At some point he has to earn his way onto the field in order to keep working those kinks out and perfecting his transitions in zone. 

 

His pick against Miami was pretty much a game saver. We were down 4 at that point.

 

We play in a division with a ton of speedy WRs.  Both Jackson and Benford run in the mid 4.5's, while Elam ran a sub 4.4.  You basically can't play man if ur starting either of the other guys.  My expectation is he has the job by end of year unless jackson and benford can make plays.  

 

Last year is a tough e v a l because all 3 played in various roles, on various sides of the field.  Run fits and tackling matter as well, and thats usually something a coach will gripe with a young player on especially in camp.

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

It is harder to start on a team with a great roster as opposed to a team with a bad roster.  Sounds simple but many people that post on this site fail to remember that.  It appears to me that the Bills are equally comfortable with all three of these guys.  It's crazy to consider Elam a bust, if he doesn't win the starting job.  Benford may just be a great talent that was under scouted by the NFL and almost fell through the cracks.  It happens in every draft.  It is also very possible that Jackson has responded to some very good coaching and has developed into a very good player.  I believe that the Bills are in a very great position because they have four starting caliber corners.  One of them will start opposite White but it does not mean the other two are busts.  If any of these three guys hit waivers, they would be gone in a heart beat and would probably be starting on another team.  It is very rare for a team to play an entire season without having a CB miss a game due to injury.  The Bills are in an elite position to deal with that eventuality.

[Alphadawg7]

16 hours ago, eball said:

...so, I know a lot of folks are ready with the pitchforks for Beane if Elam doesn't win the CB2 job, and certainly that is a disappointing result given his draft status...but if Benford wins the job because he is a player who was severely under-drafted but is actually very good, and the Bills still have a guy like Elam (who has talent) for depth, is it really a problem?

 

 

I think this is what people miss on this topic.  They look at it that if Elam doesn't win it then it means Elam was not good, which isn't the case, he has had a good camp.  Its just that we have 3 guys all having good camps at the same position.  Which to me is a good thing.

 

Personally, I think CB2 is going to be less about who starts and more about defensive calls and matchups.  I can see for example Elam out there more on press/man coverage and Dane or Benford more zone for example.  So I am not convinced that whoever wins CB2 is going to dominate the snaps like Tre does in regard to "starting".

[BillsShredder83]

If he needs another half season or season to grow into zone, I'm fine with it. In the mean time he's a nice chess piece for pressing Kelce, Tyreek, Chase. 

 

Wish we'd find a way to get him involved with some hybrid man/zone schemes like were going to need for the receivers listed above. Also, great piece to have on blitzing plays

[RoyBatty is alive]

17 hours ago, eball said:

...so, I know a lot of folks are ready with the pitchforks for Beane if Elam doesn't win the CB2 job, and certainly that is a disappointing result given his draft status...but if Benford wins the job because he is a player who was severely under-drafted but is actually very good, and the Bills still have a guy like Elam (who has talent) for depth, is it really a problem?

 

No, of course not only for people that are rigid in their thought.

 

It is like the criticism John Lunch and the 49ers are getting over how much they spent on Trey Lance and he is a third string QB.  Meanwhile at the same time they dont acknowledge their starter was Mr Irrelevant, last man in the draft Brock Purdy.  In the total analysis, does it really matter?  Important thing is that got their QB.

[Coach Tuesday]

1 hour ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

It is harder to start on a team with a great roster as opposed to a team with a bad roster.  Sounds simple but many people that post on this site fail to remember that.  It appears to me that the Bills are equally comfortable with all three of these guys.  It's crazy to consider Elam a bust, if he doesn't win the starting job.  Benford may just be a great talent that was under scouted by the NFL and almost fell through the cracks.  It happens in every draft.  It is also very possible that Jackson has responded to some very good coaching and has developed into a very good player.  I believe that the Bills are in a very great position because they have four starting caliber corners.  One of them will start opposite White but it does not mean the other two are busts.  If any of these three guys hit waivers, they would be gone in a heart beat and would probably be starting on another team.  It is very rare for a team to play an entire season without having a CB miss a game due to injury.  The Bills are in an elite position to deal with that eventuality.

I think this is close to the answer. The Bills are just really, really good at scouting CBs.  There are CBs drafted and released by the Bills still playing for other teams (Wildgoose, Seymour, etc.).  They have trouble scouting other positions like WR and RB and maybe MLB but they know how to evaluate a cornerback like maybe no other franchise.  Way too early to call Elam a “bust” but it’s certainly fair to question whether it was a smart pick given his skillset and their ability to find corners late who can fit what they want to do.

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

Jackson is a minor upgrade from Levi Wallace, and Wallace was mediocre at best, our “contain/shell” style defense is what needs adjustment, not tossed out per say,  but adjusted to take better advantage of player skills, why they picked an aggressive man coverage CB for a soft zone defense, and then not use him to his skill set is kinda Billsy, we shall see how this plays out won’t we…, 

Good point. I wondered if drafting Elam was a sign of changes in scheme or just a matter of taking the best CB on the board and hoping that he can learn to play zone. I suspected it was the latter since after drafting him they talked about being able to flip man coverage responsibilities between him and Tre White in some of their schemes. 

[BillsFan4]

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/buffalo/news/2023/08/25/elam-honest-about-rookie-season-struggles

[Buffaloflash]

20 hours ago, Airseven said:

Jackson is CB2. Still.

That is hard to believe.

 

[boco357]

We know Dane Jackson's ceiling.  We dont know Benford's.