The People v. McBeane (Alternatively, comparing SF to BUF since 2017)

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Okay, the poll will be:

 

Shanahan/Lynch/Lance/DARNOLD/Purdy

 

vs.

 

McBeane/Allen

 

Why do a poll, let’s look at Super Bowl odds.

 

Oh look. 

Fanduel, BetMGM, DraftKings all have the Bills with better Super Bowl odds than the Niners. Caesar’s has them at the same odds.

 

Vegas must be FILLED with Bills’ fans. Don’t they know the Niners went to the NFCCG that one time? Lmao.

It’s the Niners’ fault they don’t have Josh. 

I do think you should factor in draft-related trades too. It's tough to do this correctly without the trades for Garappolo (huge hit for SF; he was a GOOD player for them -- 38-17 as a starter for them and a career 99.2 rating for SF; when he didn't start, they almost always lost until Purdy came along - https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GaroJi00.htm) and Diggs (another huge hit). SF traded a second for Jimmy G and the Bills a first for Diggs. 

 

I also think they made a great trade for McCaffrey, partly because they had so many picks going into the 2023 draft.

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

Less with more:  

 

Last three seasons ...

3-0 in the Wild Card Round  (2 of those wins against QBs Thompson and Jones)  

1-2 in the Divisional Round 

0-1 in the Conference Championship Game with the person we're talking about walking the Loss over to Reid on a silver platter at the end of the game.  

A supposed defensive expert allowing an average of 28 PPG, over 31 if we don't count the offensively bereft Pats, in our last four playoff games.  

Beating the Colts w/ Rivers despite being outplayed in that game.  

4-3 overall with two of those wins against marginal playoff teams and both with low-end QBs, and another win while being outplayed by a team with the 9th ranked scoring offense and 10th ranked scoring defense and a 39-year old washed up QB in his last-hurrah season.  

 

Winning a division with QBs like Jones, Fitzpatrick, Tagovailoa whose in and out with injuries like most people go out for wings, Skylar Thompson, Mike White, Zach Wilson, and Sam Darnold is hardly impressive.  It would have been along the lines of tragic had we not been able to do that, which fed directly into those seedings. 

 

Let's see how he does this season, over/under achieves, now that there's finally some competition in the division for the first time in over 20 years.  Brady & Belichick had it easy in that regard too.  

 

 

I see you neglected to mention the best defensive performance by this regime, when the defense won the game vs the Ravens (7th in PPG in the regular season, held to 3 points and forced a pick six to cinch the game).

 

Being in the playoffs almost every year means you are going to have some disappointments. Brady went 10 years without an SB win.

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I do think you should factor in draft-related trades too. It's tough to do this correctly without the trades for Garappolo (huge hit for SF; he was a GOOD player for them -- 38-17 as a starter for them and a career 99.2 rating for SF; when he didn't start, they almost always lost until Purdy came along - https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GaroJi00.htm) and Diggs (another huge hit). SF traded a second for Jimmy G and the Bills a first for Diggs. 

 

I also think they made a great trade for McCaffrey, partly because they had so many picks going into the 2023 draft.

I should have but I wrote a line on Tanner Vallejo and I thought “what am I even doing rn”

[AuntieEm]

17 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

As much as I love what Josh has done thus far, when you have OJ, Bruce, and Kelly there is no way you can say he’s the best draft pick in franchise history at this point in his career.

Yea I love Josh and I hope he still climbs up to his full potential but if I'm gonna pick best draft pick in Bills history I'm going with Bruce.  He's arguably the best pass rusher in nfl history --  just above a couple of other NFL legends.  

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, ngbills said:

The 49ers have built an all around better team. You can harp on them for missing on picking Josh, but that is over-rewarding getting one pick right. We are lucky Mayfield and Darnold didnt drop in the draft or the story would be that we passed on Mahomes in 2017 and took one of those guys in 2018...ouch. 

It’s the most important pick to get right. Did the drought not teach you anything?

 

Like you said, they have an overall better team. Our Vegas odds of winning the Super Bowl are still higher. Why? Because of Josh Allen. That’s why. 
 

You are understating that pick. 

[GoBills808]

That said if all these guys got let go the Niners are getting jobs first

[machine gun kelly]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Topic. Title.

 

I'm gonna put some work in today boys and girls, so strap in.

 

To start: why am I comparing the Niners to the Bills?  Well our regime started in 2017, as did theirs. They have an offensive coach, we have a defensive coach. And neither team has won the big one.  So let's get started.

 

HC/GM records:

 

Shanny/Lynch: 52-46

McBeane: 62-35

 

Losing seasons:

 

Shanny/Lynch: 3

McBeane: 1

 

Playoff records:

 

Shanny/Lynch: 3 playoff appearances, 6-3, 1 SB appearance

McBeane: 5 playoff appearances, 4-5, 0 SB appearance

 

So there you have it. The numbers are pretty interesting. McD has run the steadier ship from a regular season perspective, but when SF makes the playoffs, they go a little deeper. 

 

I started with the results, because this is a results-based game. But let's enter the ultimate hindsight chamber. The DRAFT.

 

2017

 

Shanny/Lynch:

1 player still on the Niners (Kittle, All-Pro talent, 5th rounder)

Reuben Foster (#31) and Solomon Thomas (#3 overall) were tremendous busts

Some guys were fine placeholders and are still floating in the league (Witherspoon, Beathard, Trent Taylor)

 

McBeane:

3 players still on the Bills (Tre White, Pro Bowler, #27. Milano, All-Pro, 5th rounder. Dawkins, fat but an NFL starter, 2nd rounder.

No "busts" in the traditional sense for the Bills outside of Nate Peterman but he was a fifth rounder

ZayDay was mediocre here but has carved out a career.

Tanner Vallejo is a league STer, floating around as above.

 

2017 verdict:  McBeane in a landslide, tbh.

 

Editor's note: it was at this point, I realized I needed to speed this thing up, so the draft results will be briefer. If I do not point out a tremendous bust, it is because I do not believe there was one. I also decided to quit after 2021.

 

2018

 

Niners

Mike McGlinchey (#9, good player, no longer a Niner)

Fred Warner (#70, homerun pick, All-Pro)

 

Bills

Allen (#7, legit the best pick in Bills history)

Edmunds (#16, no longer a Bill, "good" player if you like scarecrows?)

Taron Johnson (#121, good player, starter)

Wyatt Teller (strike against the Bills bc "Cody Ford over me?")

 

2018 verdict: McBeane in a landslide again?  I'm thinking yes.

 

2019

 

Niners

Nick Bosa (homerun, #3)

Deebo (homerun)

Dre Greenlaw (starter, good pick)

 

Bills

Ed Oliver (meh pick but I guess he's fine)

Cody Ford (shoot me)

Devin Singletary (solid)

Dawson Knox (good-great pick)

 

2019 verdict: You just knew Shanny was gonna get this one. Cody Ford and Big Ed just can't compete.

 

2020:

 

Niners:

Kinlaw (kind of a sneaky bust?  #14, played 10 games in 2 years?)

Aiyuk (hit, #25 overall)

 

Bills:

Davis (hit)

Dane Jackson (started a year, so I will call this a hit)

Zack Moss (3rd round RB bust)

Not including STers

 

2020 verdict: I'm tempted to call this a push, Aiyuk is better than Gabe but is he better than Gabe+Dane?

 

2021:

 

Niners

Hufunga (massive hit, All-Pro, #180)

Aaron Banks (hit, starter, IOL)

Lance (gigantic bust?)

Trey Sermon (third round RB bust)

Elijah Mitchell (hit, late RB)

 

Bills

Rousseau (hit, not homerun)

Spencer Brown (I'm tempted to call this a hit, as he has basically started when healthy his whole career)

Hamlin (less tempted to call this a hit, objectively I think he was not that good last year when pressed into duty, obviously rooting for him)

 

2021 verdict: I think this has to go Niners. We have the positional value but I think they have the better players.

 

So what have we learned here?

 

I think the conclusions that we can draw is that our parallel team in the Bay Area has not been some dominant drafting vehicle or some league leader in success. In fact, our records and drafting history stack up considerably well against them. They have their fair share of first round busts, far more than the Bills have. And HIGH first round busts, Solomon Thomas and Trey Lance loom much larger than Ed Oliver/Tremaine Edmunds just being starter-level players. I think SF gets a little bit of a pass for their shakier seasons because of their QB turmoil, but by the same token, don't pass on Mahomes for Solomon Thomas and don't draft busts like Lance.

 

Now we can turn to the peanut gallery. The lesser minds who have almost certainly skipped to the last paragraph.  The @Gugny 's and @BringBackFergy's of the world.

First, TY Chans.  This was thorough, and had a fair and measured approach.  There are hits and misses in every draft.  This will be 5th or more time I’ve said this point.

 

A man I respect and most of you as well, Bill Polian.  He has said multiple times on Late Hits on NFLR where he is a host on Wed nights has self proclaimed he hit on 58% of his drafts lifetime.  Now he wears the gold jacket, and is in the Bills history books as an all time great.  It places things in perspective for one of my heroes growing up is giving his audience realistic expectations.

 

The 49ers and Bills have had hits and misses.  If Purdy was healthy in last years playoffs, there may have been a different outcome in the NFCCG and the 49ers may have been in the SB.

 

I like Chan that you live the Bills, can be both positive and critical of the Bills with the heart of seeing the most out of the Bilks even though it like every other team has flaws.

 

I consider SF and Philly on the same tier for the NFC.  Dallas is ina lower tier not just because I hate them.

 

I will say because of Dabs and Schoen am quietly rooting for the Giants.  I want as many of our guys who don’t make the 53 gets tagged to the Giants.  Give Daboll something to work with to hold up against Dallas.  They have the coaching advantage as McCarthy is an idiot.

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

First, TY Chans.  This was thorough, and had a fair and measured approach.  There are hits and misses in every draft.  This will be 5th or more time I’ve said this point.

 

A man I respect and most of you as well, Bill Polian.  He has said multiple times on Late Hits on NFLR where he is a host on Wed nights has self proclaimed he hit on 58% of his drafts lifetime.  Now he wears the gold jacket, and is in the Bills history books as an all time great.  It places things in perspective for one of my heroes growing up is giving his audience realistic expectations.

 

The 49ers and Bills have had hits and misses.  If Purdy was healthy in last years playoffs, there may have been a different outcome in the NFCCG and the 49ers may have been in the SB.

 

I like Chan that you live the Bills, can be both positive and critical of the Bills with the heart of seeing the most out of the Bilks even though it like every other team has flaws.

 

I consider SF and Philly on the same tier for the NFC.  Dallas is ina lower tier not just because I hate them.

 

I will say because of Dabs and Schoen am quietly rooting for the Giants.  I want as many of our guys who don’t make the 53 gets tagged to the Giants.  Give Daboll something to work with to hold up against Dallas.  They have the coaching advantage as McCarthy is an idiot.

What makes McDermott a good coach and McCarthy an idiot

[ngbills]

16 minutes ago, FireChans said:

It’s the most important pick to get right. Did the drought not teach you anything?

 

Like you said, they have an overall better team. Our Vegas odds of winning the Super Bowl are still higher. Why? Because of Josh Allen. That’s why. 
 

You are understating that pick. 

It is very important which is why its impressive the success SF has had without it. My point is dont overvalue luck or the one pick. I would be the Bills right now over the niners. But I think the SF front office and coaches are better. I would take them on this Bills roster if that was an option. Its not the question but if JA retired tomorrow how much faith do you have in the Bills going forward? Can this regime get that pick right again? 

Edited August 24, 2023 by ngbills

[FireChans]

Just now, ngbills said:

It is very important which is why its impressive the success SF has had without it. My point is overvalue luck. I would be the Bills right now over the niners. But I think the SF front office and coaches are better. I would take them on this Bills roster if that was an option. Its not the question but if JA retired tomorrow how much faith do you have in the Bills going forward? Can this regime get that pick right again? 

I would have more faith in the Bills getting a QB right again than the Niners who haven’t gotten it right once. The Niners got their QB wrong in epic fashion. 3 firsts for Lance? Lmao. 

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

What makes McDermott a good coach and McCarthy an idiot

There is no good way to answer this one lol, thank god you didn’t ask me.

[PBF81]

26 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I see you neglected to mention the best defensive performance by this regime, when the defense won the game vs the Ravens (7th in PPG in the regular season, held to 3 points and forced a pick six to cinch the game).  

 

So you're using a single playoff game to contrast with several unimpressive wins and critical losses then.  OK, I'll agree.  

 

BTW, here's some more info on that game that you're using to attempt to argue contrary. 

 

The Ravens had ...

 

More passing yards 

More total yards 340 v. 220 

More 1st-Downs 

Better 3rd-down-conversions, we were poor  

Over 10 minutes in time-of-possession advantage 

They also had 150 yards rushing to our 32 (2.0 YPC) 

 

It was their penalties and poor kicking that was primarily responsible for our win.  Did we play a great defensive game in allowing 150 rushing yards?  That sounds like pure opinion.  

 

Either way, and again, if that's the only bright spot in an argument supporting McD overachieving come playoff time, it's problematic.  

 

Just sayin'.  

 

 

Edited August 24, 2023 by PBF81

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

Now, put Allen on the Niners and their QBs on the Bills, and then what do you see?  

 

 

Now, put the Bills in the NFC and the Niners in the AFC and then what do you see?

[Milanos Milano]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

The difference is Josh.

 

Somewhat impressive they’ve been mostly good with constant turnover at the QB position and they’ve been to a SB… we’ve been struggling to get there with arguably the 2nd best QB in the league.(Not until 2020 was he truly great however.)

 

 

Still, I’d take Shannon over McD hands down.

This. Shanny has made Mr Irrelevant into a serviceable QB, while McD squanders the 2nd best QB in the league. Imagine what good coaches like Shanny, McV, and Billy would do with Allen. 

[FireChans]

15 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

So you're using a single playoff game to contrast with several unimpressive wins and critical losses then.  OK, I'll agree.  

 

BTW, here's some more info on that game that you're using to attempt to argue contrary. 

 

The Ravens had ...

 

More passing yards 

More total yards 340 v. 220 

More 1st-Downs 

Better 3rd-down-conversions, we were poor  

Over 10 minutes in time-of-possession advantage 

They also had 150 yards rushing to our 32 (2.0 YPC) 

 

It was their penalties and poor kicking that was primarily responsible for our win.  Did we play a great defensive game in allowing 150 rushing yards?  That sounds like pure opinion.  

 

Either way, and again, if that's the only bright spot in an argument supporting McD overachieving come playoff time, it's problematic.  

 

Just sayin'.  

 

 

Um, it's a bright spot that you intentionally ignored. I'm not contrasting anything, just adding a puzzle piece that you conveniently ignored.

 

We held them to 3 points. They averaged 29 PPG in the regular season. Pick six to seal it when the offense could only muster 10 points, Lamar had a passer rating of 99 in the regular season. He had a passer rating of 66 in that game. That's not a good defensive game? lmao

 

I love how you point out the "defensive expert" in great detail, then shift to "our offense wasn't good in that game" as a slight against McD.. The man can't win.

 

Defense near singlehandedly wins a playoff game when the offense struggles, McD sucks

 

Offense plays great and defense struggles, McD sucks.

 

 

Edited August 24, 2023 by FireChans

[GoBills808]

Just now, FireChans said:

Um, it's a bright spot that you intentionally ignored. I'm not contrasting anything, just adding a puzzle piece that you conveniently ignored.

 

We held them to 3 points. They averaged 29 PPG in the regular season. Lamar had a passer rating of 99 in the regular season. He had a passer rating of 66 in that game. That's not a good defensive game? lmao

 

I love how you point out the "defensive expert" in great detail, then shift to "our offense wasn't good in that game" as a slight against McD.. The man can't win.

 

Defense near singlehandedly wins a playoff game when the offense struggles, McD sucks

 

Offense plays great and defense struggles, McD sucks.

 

 

That game was iirc played in a windstorm

It was a good defensive effort but it needs context

[FireChans]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

That game was iirc played in a windstorm

If you want to live in a world where the defense outscoring the opposing offense in the playoffs isn't a good defensive performance, go ahead lol.

[ColoradoBills]

Well SF got blow out by KC 44-23 with Garoppolo.  So, if they were in the AFCW instead of the NFCW?

They barely beat the Raiders 37-34.

 

Having Purdy come in and manage the games as well as he did was pretty lucky.  

For an offensively minded HC it seems their D helped throughout the season.

 

These types of comparisons are opinionated at best. 

[Milanos Milano]

2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

Well SF got blow out by KC 44-23 with Garoppolo.  So, if they were in the AFCW instead of the NFCW?

They barely beat the Raiders 37-34.

 

Having Purdy come in and manage the games as well as he did was pretty lucky.  

For an offensively minded HC it seems their D helped throughout the season.

 

These types of comparisons are opinionated at best. 

It’s not lucky. Coaches like Shanny and McV are taking ok QBs and getting them to over perform. If Shanny or McV had Josh Allen, we would likely be talking about another dynasty. 

[GoBills808]

9 minutes ago, FireChans said:

If you want to live in a world where the defense outscoring the opposing offense in the playoffs isn't a good defensive performance, go ahead lol.

No they were excellent

[PBF81]

38 minutes ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

Now, put the Bills in the NFC and the Niners in the AFC and then what do you see?

 

The Niners in the AFC East over the past three years?  Well, they'd have had an easier schedule in '20 and '21, when they had the fourth toughest schedule in the league in '20.  It stands to reason that in those two seasons they'd have posted a better record.  Last season they beat almost no good teams during the regular season, but come playoff time they played better than we typically do in them by most measures in the first two games.  Tough to fault them for getting shellacked by the Eagles as Purdy got hurt early and an absolutely atrocious nothing QB came in to replace him, leading to a 15 minute time-of-possession (and other) advantages for the Eagles.  

 

The Bills over there in the West, I don't envision our record having been much different over there, but come playoff time, and given our playoff history, we likely would have gotten by Seattle, even if not by as much as they did, but Dallas, whose offense was better than either Cincy's or Miami's, we may have lost that game.  

 

I don't see how that's germane to my point however.  As I said, this season will reveal much.  I expect that by season's end, peoples' viewpoing of McD and the D is going to be somewhat different.  I'm sure that more excuses will be levied in his favor, but nonetheless.  Let's see how it shakes out as that is simply MO.  

 

I'm also not defending Shanahan BTW, I don't care for the guy myself.  My point is that having Allen allows for McD to be over-rated.  Culture and being a players coach are one thing, routinely getting your a$$ handed to you in the playoffs once you hit the divisional round is altogether another while your defense entirely underachieves its regular season performance.  

 

 

25 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Um, it's a bright spot that you intentionally ignored. I'm not contrasting anything, just adding a puzzle piece that you conveniently ignored.

 

We held them to 3 points. They averaged 29 PPG in the regular season. Pick six to seal it when the offense could only muster 10 points, Lamar had a passer rating of 99 in the regular season. He had a passer rating of 66 in that game. That's not a good defensive game? lmao

 

I love how you point out the "defensive expert" in great detail, then shift to "our offense wasn't good in that game" as a slight against McD.. The man can't win.

 

Defense near singlehandedly wins a playoff game when the offense struggles, McD sucks

 

Offense plays great and defense struggles, McD sucks.

 

 

 

Simply because you say it doesn't make it true.  

 

If you want to talk about playing both sides, how about ignoring 6 games in favor of a single game.  I'll let readers decide after that.  LOL 

 

Honestly, ... seriously?  

 

.. and honestly, what's with the big focus on "being right?"  You wanna be right?  OK, I agree with you, entirely.  LOL 
 

I'll enjoy the season, things are going to play out as they play out.  Don't like my takes and opinions, fine.  I'll acquiesce to yours for your sake.  LOL 

 

 

Edited August 24, 2023 by PBF81

[Gugny]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

Now we can turn to the peanut gallery. The lesser minds who have almost certainly skipped to the last paragraph.  The @Gugny 's and @BringBackFergy's of the world.

This is the only chapter I put myself through.