Do you think Josh cuts the INT's in half this year or is another year with double digit INT's

[FireChans]

9 minutes ago, julian said:

Burrow isn’t on Allen’s level and I don’t believe it’s particularly close, the Burrow’s D gives up 10 less points per game than Allen’s in the postseason, it’s a team sport, crazy I know.

 

that being said I do believe Burrow is excellent but just doesn’t have all the tools Mahomes and Allen have.

 

id slot him 4th behind Mahomes Allen Herbert.

 

 

Burrow has a QB rating of over 100 in the regular season. I like Herbert as much as the next guy, he’s great, but he’s 100% on the outside looking in on the top 3 of Allen/Mahomes/Burrow.

[Cray51]

I dont really care if he throws 13-17 INTs, if he puts up 5000 total yards and 38+ total TDs.

 

Elite MVP QBs to be around 2.5:1 TDs to Turnovers.  Last 3 years, Allen is at 2.1:1.  That's strong, but I think 2.5:1 would be the elite MVP style impact.

 

However, Allen is a great QB, who will win games even with his ratios not being perfect.

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

I'll say he throws 10 or 11

[Franco_92]

If Josh is healthy for 17 games he will throw 9-17 interceptions, with the likelihood represented as a gaussian distribution centered at 12 or 13 ints

[C.Biscuit97]

Honestly, what I have grown to love about Allen is what made me so nervous about him in the first place. Dude is a gunslinger. He is going to have a few of those what the hell was that (or mash all the button plays) where you have no idea what he was thinking (see the Houston playoff game).  But he makes up for it with all the amazing other plays he makes. So you just have to accept they will happen and trying to get him to fully change that might take away with what makes him great. 

2 minutes ago, Cray51 said:

I dont really care if he throws 13-17 INTs, if he puts up 5000 total yards and 38+ total TDs.

 

Elite MVP QBs to be around 2.5:1 TDs to Turnovers.  Last 3 years, Allen is at 2.1:1.  That's strong, but I think 2.5:1 would be the elite MVP style impact.

 

However, Allen is a great QB, who will win games even with his ratios not being perfect.

I’m not as worried but the ints because as you said, they happen. I think people are forgetting about the fumbles with has become an issue. 
 

im fine with the occasional crazy int. But he seem to struggle with ball security which also single-handedly cause us the Vikings game. 

[Chaos]

28 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Nope because they've been to a combined 4 SB's the last 4 years and the consensus top 2 QB's in the league.

In other words double digit ints does have a damn thing to do with not going to the super bowl. 

[Franco_92]

39 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Part of Josh is being a gutsy baller and that means attempting SOME ill-advised throws. 
 

I don’t want him playing Rodgers ball where he would rather go 3 and out 5 times than throw a pick. 
 

That being said, I’m hoping last year’s red zone woes were an aberration in his career.

They likely are. It took until game 11 of his 4th season to throw a red zone interception 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

31 minutes ago, Beast said:

Doesn’t matter to me as long as they score a lot of points.

Same. Dude has put up over 40 total touchdowns in three straight seasons. Has any other quarterback done that?

 

I can live with a higher than average turnover rate when he’s putting in that many points.
 

If he keeps the interceptions to single digits he’ll likely be the favorite to win MVP.

[Franco_92]

7 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

I was curious, so I looked at all of his INTs from last year: 

1. Rams - Bounced off of McKenzie's hands into the defender. Not Allen's fault at all. Targeting McKenzie.
2. Rams - I think Crowder did a lazy/wrong route. He sort of rounded it off at the top, when Allen threw it as if he would cut across. I'll mark this one as miscommunication or neutral. Targeting Crowder
3. Ravens - Tipped at the line. Not Allen's fault (or I guess whatever amount of blame you assign the QB for a pass tipped at the line). Targeting Knox.
4. Steelers.- Just a straight up under throw. Not a bad decision, but inaccurate pass. Targeting Davis.
5. Packers - Threw across his body on the run to the middle of the field. Actually did have Davis open, but an inaccurate pass. Might not have seen the defender. Targeting Davis.
6. Packers - Threw late on a scramble to Davis' feet. I actually think this was supposed to be a throw away, but the DB made a great diving play. Next time throw it out of the back of the endzone Allen. Targeting Davis.
7. Jets - Allen scrambling to this right. It was such a bad throw, I wonder if Knox was supposed to cut back. May have been a miscommunication. Allen missed the throw by 4 yards. Targeting Knox.
8. Jets - No idea what happened here. Allen seemingly just floated one out there. Davis stuck to the sideline, and maybe he was supposed to cut in? It still would have been a contested catch, and I think Allen might not have seen the defender there. I think this one was part miscommunication, part bad decision anyway. Targeting Davis.
9. Vikings - Scrambling on 4th down in the red zone, bad decision to throw into a very small window and Peterson intercepted. I think Allen felt like he "had" to throw it no matter what because it was 4th down anyway and was going to be a turnover on downs. We seem to be allergic to running in this scenario. Targeting Knox I think.
10. Vikings - OT pick, bad decision because he went for it all when we could have just kept picking up first downs. I think this was also a miscommunication with Davis. Allen threw the ball before Davis made his cut. Davis sort of floated into the endzone, and Allen threw it as if he was going to cut across the goalline. Targeting Davis.
11. Lions - Set play where Allen threw an immediate slant on RPO. Linebacker makes a great play to tip and pick. Not sure if this is Allen's fault, or just a great defensive play. Targeting Diggs.
12. Bears - Under threw McKenzie on a deep pass into double coverage. Might have had the TD with a perfect throw, but bad under throw here. Targeting McKenzie.
13. Bears - Cook ran across as a safety valve and stopped running. Allen threw it where he would have been if he kept running. I think this one was a miscommunication with the rookie. Targeting Cook.
14. Pats - Hit while throwing leading to an under throw. Held the ball a touch too long, but these things sort of happen. Targeting Davis.
15. Dolphins - This was a bomb to John Brown. I think this was a miscommunication on where he expected Brown to be. This happens when you bring new receivers in at the end of the year, lol. Was also a nice grab by the DB. Targeting Brown.
16. Dolphins - Somewhat late throw that hits Beasley in the hands and bounces to a Dolphin player. You could argue it was pass interference as well. I don't think this one was really Allen's fault. Targeting Beasley.
17. Bengals - One minute left in a playoff blowout, so who really cares. Threw way late to Beasley. Not a lot of velocity on the pass allowed a DB to get under it. Targeting Beasley.

A few interesting conclusions:
- Communication issues with the WRs and RBs, especially Gabe Davis. I think these option routes really caused a lot of issues last year.
- Only one pick targeting Diggs, and it was really just a great defensive play. Why only one pick targeting our most targeted player? Makes me think that a lot of this is on the receiver.
- Throwing late and scrambling. Allen needs to throw it away 10% more when scrambling. Live to fight another down.
- Twice as many picks the second half of the season vs the first half. I'm convinced Allen got some sort of injury around halftime of the GB game. His play totally fell off after that.

One note on the first minnesota INT, the guy who picked it off was covering Mckenzie but Isaiah ran out of bounds freeing him unexpectedly, which is why allen threw it. He was expecting the defender who undercut the throw to need to stay with Mckenzie 

Edited August 23, 2023 by arcane

[dgrochester55]

Honestly, given the amount of throwing that he does and his ability to throw in tough positions, 14 to 15 interceptions is not all that bad.   HOF QB's like Kelly and Favre routinely had more than that.    To me, the fumbles while running are more of a concern and a statistical outlier.    

 

Having under ten interceptions in a full season would be amazing for Allen.  Even if Allen was to cut his interceptions down to 12 (The INT's that Mahomes and Burrow had last year,) that would be a great leap forward.  

[GoBills808]

40 minutes ago, Beast said:

Doesn’t matter to me as long as they score a lot of points.

This is the correct answer

 

TD is worth 6 points

INT is not

[Buffalo716]

37 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Nope because they've been to a combined 4 SB's the last 4 years and the consensus top 2 QB's in the league.

Joe burrow is not a consensus top 2 QB

 

Look at his playoff numbers lol Josh Allens numbers dwarf his ... With a less cast of skill guys

Edited August 23, 2023 by Buffalo716

[DCofNC]

He’ll most likely be double digits again.  He will be playing hero ball again because the front office refuses to get him real help.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said:

Joe burrow is not a consensus top 2 QB

 

Look at his playoff numbers lol Josh Allens numbers dwarf his ... With a less cast of skill guys

The Burrow playoff mystique is a media creation 

 

His defense shows up is all

[Buffalo Boy]

   This is a classic example of the coach and players needing to all be on the same page.

   Last years O seemed to devolve into Josh needs to do everything by the end of the season.

   If Dorsey calls shorter hitting plays and heavily involves Cooke and Kincaid while simultaneously staying in JA’s ear about taking what is given

    He has a chance at a record year with YAC making up a much larger percentage of passing yards. If this happens we are a super dangerous team.

[The Jokeman]

Most likely yes as almost half, 14 out of 32 starting QBs had double digit interceptions last year. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

5 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

He’ll most likely be double digits again.  He will be playing hero ball again because the front office refuses to get him real help.

Confusing comment. Obviously another Gabe Davis and Spencer Brown suck post.

[TheWeatherMan]

23 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

I was curious, so I looked at all of his INTs from last year: 

1. Rams - Bounced off of McKenzie's hands into the defender. Not Allen's fault at all. Targeting McKenzie.
2. Rams - I think Crowder did a lazy/wrong route. He sort of rounded it off at the top, when Allen threw it as if he would cut across. I'll mark this one as miscommunication or neutral. Targeting Crowder
3. Ravens - Tipped at the line. Not Allen's fault (or I guess whatever amount of blame you assign the QB for a pass tipped at the line). Targeting Knox.
4. Steelers.- Just a straight up under throw. Not a bad decision, but inaccurate pass. Targeting Davis.
5. Packers - Threw across his body on the run to the middle of the field. Actually did have Davis open, but an inaccurate pass. Might not have seen the defender. Targeting Davis.
6. Packers - Threw late on a scramble to Davis' feet. I actually think this was supposed to be a throw away, but the DB made a great diving play. Next time throw it out of the back of the endzone Allen. Targeting Davis.
7. Jets - Allen scrambling to this right. It was such a bad throw, I wonder if Knox was supposed to cut back. May have been a miscommunication. Allen missed the throw by 4 yards. Targeting Knox.
8. Jets - No idea what happened here. Allen seemingly just floated one out there. Davis stuck to the sideline, and maybe he was supposed to cut in? It still would have been a contested catch, and I think Allen might not have seen the defender there. I think this one was part miscommunication, part bad decision anyway. Targeting Davis.
9. Vikings - Scrambling on 4th down in the red zone, bad decision to throw into a very small window and Peterson intercepted. I think Allen felt like he "had" to throw it no matter what because it was 4th down anyway and was going to be a turnover on downs. We seem to be allergic to running in this scenario. Targeting Knox I think.
10. Vikings - OT pick, bad decision because he went for it all when we could have just kept picking up first downs. I think this was also a miscommunication with Davis. Allen threw the ball before Davis made his cut. Davis sort of floated into the endzone, and Allen threw it as if he was going to cut across the goalline. Targeting Davis.
11. Lions - Set play where Allen threw an immediate slant on RPO. Linebacker makes a great play to tip and pick. Not sure if this is Allen's fault, or just a great defensive play. Targeting Diggs.
12. Bears - Under threw McKenzie on a deep pass into double coverage. Might have had the TD with a perfect throw, but bad under throw here. Targeting McKenzie.
13. Bears - Cook ran across as a safety valve and stopped running. Allen threw it where he would have been if he kept running. I think this one was a miscommunication with the rookie. Targeting Cook.
14. Pats - Hit while throwing leading to an under throw. Held the ball a touch too long, but these things sort of happen. Targeting Davis.
15. Dolphins - This was a bomb to John Brown. I think this was a miscommunication on where he expected Brown to be. This happens when you bring new receivers in at the end of the year, lol. Was also a nice grab by the DB. Targeting Brown.
16. Dolphins - Somewhat late throw that hits Beasley in the hands and bounces to a Dolphin player. You could argue it was pass interference as well. I don't think this one was really Allen's fault. Targeting Beasley.
17. Bengals - One minute left in a playoff blowout, so who really cares. Threw way late to Beasley. Not a lot of velocity on the pass allowed a DB to get under it. Targeting Beasley.

A few interesting conclusions:
- Communication issues with the WRs and RBs, especially Gabe Davis. I think these option routes really caused a lot of issues last year.
- Only one pick targeting Diggs, and it was really just a great defensive play. Why only one pick targeting our most targeted player? Makes me think that a lot of this is on the receiver.
- Throwing late and scrambling. Allen needs to throw it away 10% more when scrambling. Live to fight another down.
- Twice as many picks the second half of the season vs the first half. I'm convinced Allen got some sort of injury around halftime of the GB game. His play totally fell off after that.

So if you’re going to include all the INTs that weren’t Josh’s fault, you should include all the dropped INTs by the opposition.  Josh accepts more risk than most QBs, and for the most part, I’m okay with this.  

[I'm Spartacus]

We all love the gunslinger mentality in Josh, but he needs to be disciplined to throw the ball away at times. Interceptions should go down.

[Billl]

31 minutes ago, Chaos said:

In other words double digit ints does have a damn thing to do with not going to the super bowl. 

Three INTs and three fumbles in two playoff games does, though.