Isabella shows moves, will he make the roster?

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

Again, feel free to say how many games you believe that Allen's being at QB means to us in W/Ls?  

 

We both know why you won't.  If you did, again, point it out.

 

The difference between you and Gunner is that he is providing time stamped evidence and objective statistical data, meanwhile you are playing semantics games. Any neutral observer can see it. I doubt this message will reach you since your ego is currently playing a stupid game of king of the hill, but that's the truth.

[4merper4mer]

6 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

I'll summarize.  Functional versatility.  Totally worth the roster spot. 

I’ll summarize the counterpoint.  Isabella………whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.

 

Oh he can too just sit here and cry.

[PBF81]

6 minutes ago, FLFan said:

You are fighting the good fight but to no avail I am afraid.  None the less, your posts are always educational.  

 

They are educational, for sure, but he's also not coming clean on the impact that Allen has on the perceptions of McD being a good coach either.  

 

Do you want to take a crack at it?  Same question, a simple one.  

 

What is the W/L impact of Allen on this team in any given season?  

 

 

[Chaos]

7 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

What is the W/L impact of Allen on this team in any given season?  

 

PFF place Allen at 6.5 points per game vs neutral replacement QB.  Bills are favored by less than 6.5 in 12 games.  If the replacement QB is Burrows, Hurts or Mahomes, than Allen adds no value.  If the replacement QB is Jordan Love, Allen is worth up to 12 games.  

Edited September 9, 2023 by Chaos

[PBF81]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The difference between you and Gunner is that he is providing time stamped evidence and objective statistical data, meanwhile you are playing semantics games. Any neutral observer can see it. I doubt this message will reach you since your ego is currently playing a stupid game of king of the hill, but that's the truth.

 

I don't think you've read the entire thread.  I provided a very detailed analysis to both McD's 2017 season and Marrone's 2014 season.  Very detailed.  

 

Gunner cited two games that he claims that Gilliam made a big impact on the outcome of the game.  I provided data for every single play of a notable gain and all of our TDs that were in the highlight reel, and not one play ID'd as such.  

 

He provided an opinion, sans any video evidence or links, of three plays, upon which, presumably, Giliam impacted the game for a win.  

 

That's "time-stamped" evidence?  It's "time-stamped" opinion to be sure.  

 

Either way, do you agree that Gilliams makes a lot impact plays all season long, while averaging 11 offensive snaps/game?  

 

We know he doesn't on Special Teams, where he took nearly 300 snaps and had 3 combined tackles.  One of those solo tackles was on a 13-yard punt return against the Pats in that last game in a game that we'd already won with minutes to go.  Game Impact Factor:  0   The other two were both in the Detroit game.  One of which was a comb tackle on a 20-yard KR on a drive whereby Detroit Scored a TD.  Game Impact Factor:  0  His solo tackle in that game was on a 41-yard PR setting the Lions up on our 35 also on a drive on which they scored a TD.  Game Impact Factor:  0.  

 

So clearly he wasn't much of an impact on STs.  

 

Honestly, how anyone can possibly argue that Gilliams makes impact plays is beyond me.  He's a blocker, but an expendable one.  If he were our only "key injury" this season, this offense wouldn't miss a beat.  It might even improve.  

 

 

[ToGoGo]

7 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

They are educational, for sure, but he's also not coming clean on the impact that Allen has on the perceptions of McD being a good coach either.  

 

Do you want to take a crack at it?  Same question, a simple one.  

 

What is the W/L impact of Allen on this team in any given season?  

 

 

I’ll take a stab at it. 
 

McDermott (or McBeane since they work so closely together on roster building) was about +2 or +3 wins above replacement with Tyrod Taylor at QB compared to an average/below average coach like Rex Ryan. 
 

Allen is probably a +4 to +6 wins above replacement compared to a Tyrod Taylor. That’s based on going 13-3 last year with 3 close losses that could’ve gone either way. 
 

All in all, we’re very lucky to have both. 

[PBF81]

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

PFF place Allen at 6.5 points per game vs neutral replacement QB.  Bills are favored by less than 6.5 in 12 games.  If the replacement QB is Burrows, Hurts or Mahomes, than Allen adds no value.  If the replacement QB is Jordan Love, Allen is worth up to 12 games. 

 

Again, the context of this between Gunner and myself is the caliber of QBs that this team has had prior to Allen's arrival.  

 

I don't care what PFF says in the matter unless you want to go on record as agreeing with all of PFF's takes.  You willing to do that for the sake of future discussions of this nature?  

 

Otherwise, what is your, not someone else's, acknowledgement of how many Ws Allen adds to this team over the likes of the QBs we've had in the past, or as I said, Taylor, Mac Jones since I compared BB's Pats to pre/post Brady, and in fairness to the debate in that way?  

 

 

[Chaos]

Just now, PBF81 said:

 

Again, the context of this between Gunner and myself is the caliber of QBs that this team has had prior to Allen's arrival.  

 

I don't care what PFF says in the matter unless you want to go on record as agreeing with all of PFF's takes.  You willing to do that for the sake of future discussions of this nature?  

 

Otherwise, what is your, not someone else's, acknowledgement of how many Ws Allen adds to this team over the likes of the QBs we've had in the past, or as I said, Taylor, Mac Jones since I compared BB's Pats to pre/post Brady, and in fairness to the debate in that way?  

 

 

I tried to answer the actual question you posted in the post I replied too.  Now I understand what others are saying about your posts.
I will summarize what they are saying more succintly: Your posts in this thread are pure nonsense. 

I hope this clears things up for you. 

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

do you agree that Gilliams makes a lot impact plays all season long, while averaging 11 offensive snaps/game?  

 

So again, this is literally a strawman argument. You're playing semantics games.

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

I’ll take a stab at it. 
 

Allen is probably a +4 to +6 wins above replacement compared to a Tyrod Taylor. That’s based on going 13-3 last year with 3 close losses that could’ve gone either way. 

 

 

Thank you!!  

 

I won't disagree with that.  Allow me to ask, would you say that Taylor was better or worse than most of the other QBs we've had during our drought era, on averge?  Of QB by QB if you wish.  

 

Otherwise, it would seem to me that if you swapped those 4 minimum Wins off of our W/L records the past four seasons you'd end up with 9-7, 7-10, 9-7, and 6-10.  That'd be 31-34 and no playoff appearances overall.  If that happened, what would be the perception of how good a coach McD is?  

 

 

3 minutes ago, Chaos said:

I tried to answer the actual question you posted in the post I replied too.  Now I understand what others are saying about your posts.
I will summarize what they are saying more succintly: Your posts in this thread are pure nonsense. 

I hope this clears things up for you. 

 

LOL, oh I understand it.  People come up with their opinions, and ignore any and all evidence that they may be incorrect.  

 

 

[PBF81]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

So again, this is literally a strawman argument. You're playing semantics games.

 

I'd argue that Gunner is making strawman arguments.  

 

He's playing semantics games.  I've defined just about everything I've argued.  His definition of "impact" if also as vague as it gets.  

 

I've asked specific questions in light of a couple of our key disagreements, like the one that ToGoGo just answered, and he refuses to answer them.  

 

I'll pose the same question to you, how many games impact does Allen make in our W/L column on average every season?  

 

I can see why none of the McD apologists want to answer it.  It's obvious.  If they give an honest answer, all of a sudden McD doesn't look so good.  

 

That much is apparent.  Hiding behind nonsense is just that, hiding behind nonsense.  

[ToGoGo]

7 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

Thank you!!  

 

I won't disagree with that.  Allow me to ask, would you say that Taylor was better or worse than most of the other QBs we've had during our drought era, on averge?  Of QB by QB if you wish.  

 

Otherwise, it would seem to me that if you swapped those 4 minimum Wins off of our W/L records the past four seasons you'd end up with 9-7, 7-10, 9-7, and 6-10.  That'd be 31-34 and no playoff appearances overall.  If that happened, what would be the perception of how good a coach McD is?  

 

 

 

LOL, oh I understand it.  People come up with their opinions, and ignore any and all evidence that they may be incorrect.  

 

 

Good question. We were walking away from Taylor anyway. I’d say he was slightly above average compared to past Bills QBs. I personally thought he had no balls, but that’s another story. 
 

So the question is who would we have gotten at QB if not Allen? I remember hearing about us going hard at Kirk Cousins back then but the price was too high. 
 

I think McDermott can squeeze more wins than a typical HC. Just look at how elite we are with bounce back wins since he took over. He’s an elite coach when it comes to culture. 
 

I think we’d be a perennial 9-7 and 10-6 wildcard type team without Allen. We’d have more money to spend on other positions. Sign an elite DE or RB along with a Cousins or Goff level QB.

[Saxum]

54 minutes ago, Augie said:

@PBF81 

 

You might want to quit while you are behind. 

 

 

 

WAY behind…..

 

The difference is being 2nd last in a race and so last they shut down the timer and left.

[FLFan]

51 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

They are educational, for sure, but he's also not coming clean on the impact that Allen has on the perceptions of McD being a good coach either.  

 

Do you want to take a crack at it?  Same question, a simple one.  

 

What is the W/L impact of Allen on this team in any given season?  

 

 

I am not going to be sucked into your game for all the reasons that should be painfully obvious to anyone who has been following this or many other discussions involving you.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

Right, like my specifically detailing our illustrious "making the playoffs" season in avid detail, in support of my argument, with you providing nothing but opinion to date.  

 

Those kinds of "feelings"?   

 

Again, feel free to say how many games you believe that Allen's being at QB means to us in W/Ls?  

 

We both know why you won't.  If you did, again, point it out.  God knows how many times I've asked yet never to get a direct reply.  Again, in the vein of "feelings," I've given you mine and presented the record of an otherwise very distinguished coach as evidence.  Not sure how data and facts are "feelings," but OK.  

 

Either way, I'm [still] awaiting your  response to that and have been for months.  

 

 

 

On THIS point. On Gilliam. I have given you the evidence. The numbers. And the plays. You ignore them. 

 

As for putting a number on Allen's games worth to us...  this roster with Barkley or Kyle Allen at Quarterback would win about 6 games. If we had a top level backup we would win about 8. If you swapped Josh Allen with Dak or Carr or Kirk we'd win about 10. With Josh we should win about 12. But there is no science behind that. It is just guessing as you go up the tiers of alternative QB options. 

 

Is that what you wanted? 

[SectionC3]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

They are educational, for sure, but he's also not coming clean on the impact that Allen has on the perceptions of McD being a good coach either.  

 

Do you want to take a crack at it?  Same question, a simple one.  

 

What is the W/L impact of Allen on this team in any given season?  

 

 

Too big.  I don't disagree there. 

[Doc]

Isabella's (still) on the PS, right?

[SectionC3]

2 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

I’ll summarize the counterpoint.  Isabella………whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.

 

Oh he can too just sit here and cry.

If Isabella is the complaint, then that's nuts.  There's a good chance we'll roll with five active receivers.  He probably wouldn't be one of them were he on the 53.  And, if he was primed immediately contribute, it would seem that there's be a chance that he'd be on a 53 somewhere.  

 

Don't get me wrong, I like Isabella, too.  But at this point he's a priority practice squad player until injuries/proven otherwise. 

[Rocky Landing]

9 minutes ago, Doc said:

Isabella's (still) on the PS, right?

He is

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

He's playing semantics games.  I've defined just about everything I've argued.  His definition of "impact" if also as vague as it gets.  

 

 

I mean I'd say 2 yards per play over the average in that game when he is out there is pretty defined. When he was out there in that game the Bills were better to the tune of 2 yards per play which in NFL terms is massive. 

 

That is my definition. In those games against that particular opponent his impact is clear, defined, and measurable. 

 

Doesn't mean he is irreplaceable. Doesn't mean he has that impact every week, he doesn't but there are certain opponents where the Bills want to get that opponent to stay in base defense and want to force them to play 3 linebackers where Reggie Gilliam's versatility and skillset are a tool in the toolbox. And when you add to what he does on Special Teams you end up with someone whos is well worth the value on his contract.