Bills dead last in goal-line EPA/play last year(inside the 3 yard line) - Warren Sharp analysis

[balln]

21 hours ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

Just looking at his splits inside 10 yards.  They really aren't that good, they were better in 2021 though with a more seasoned coordinator.

 

2022 -

Passing: 18/40 (40%) - 14 TDs and 3 interceptions.  He also was sacked once.  

Running: 15 carries for 23 yards and 5 TDs (likely some sneaks here so yards really don't matter much). 
 

2021 - 

Passing: 29/56 (52%) - 18 TDs and 1 interception. 

Running: 17 carries for 52 yards and 5 TDs.

 

I'd say play design definitely needs to improve based on those numbers.  I expect comp% to be lower, but 40 is straight up bad.  

 

Herbert was 27/49 for 12 and 1.  He was sacked twice and didn't do anything on the ground.  

Lawrence was 20/36 for 15 and 2.  He had 5 more on the ground.  

 

Basically, too many turnovers and inability or unwillingness to run the ball.  Running the ball well inside 10 will fix a lot of the issues here.  A bit more motion helps.  Rub routes.  Getting a little tricky too.  Teams are going to play zone here until you force them to stop playing zone.  

Yea I’ll keep

saying it. He’s just not that pinpoint accurate on short and timing routes

[DC Greg]

On 8/18/2023 at 12:05 PM, HIT BY SPIKES said:

 

Did you see running holes made by our OL that Singletary did not see?

 

I'm talking more about those goal line or 3rd/4th and short situations. You're not really going to ever get a real "hole" opened up there. There's going to be contact immediately at the line of scrimmage, and what I'm talking about is having a back that can power through initial contact to get you those few yards or inches you need to score or get the first. Some backs are more powerful than others and have a downhill running style that can get that through contact. Singletary had many good qualities to his game, but that wasn't really one of them. We need a guy who will hit the line full speed and lower the shoulder (or dive over the line... I don't care! Just someone who can get you the yard when you need it). I'm hoping Harris or Murray or whoever can provide that, because the Bills have really sucked in those situations for awhile now.

Edited August 21, 2023 by DC Greg

[HIT BY SPIKES]

4 minutes ago, DC Greg said:

 

I'm talking more about those goal line or 3rd/4th and short situations. You're not really going to ever get a real "hole" opened up there. There's going to be contact immediately at the line of scrimmage, and what I'm talking about is having a back that can power through initial contact to get you those few yards or inches you need to score or get the first. Some backs are more powerful than others and have a downhill running style that can get that through contact. Singletary had many good qualities to his game, but that wasn't really one of them. We need a guy who will hit the line full speed and lower the shoulder (or dive over the line... I don't care! Just someone who can get you the yard when you need it). I'm hoping Harris or Murray or whoever can provide that, because the Bills have really sucked in those situations for awhile now.

 

No doubt we need a much bigger back than Singletary at the GL however many many times elsewhere on the field he was met in the backfield or ran into his own OL since there was no hole.

 

He is by no means a very good RB however our OL is well below average and I do  not expect anything different this year.

 

OL is imply not a priority to Beane.

 

 

[DC Greg]

Just now, HIT BY SPIKES said:

 

No doubt we need a much bigger back than Singletary at the GL however many many times elsewhere on the field he was met in the backfield or ran into his own OL since there was no hole.

 

He is by no means a very good RB however our OL is well below average and I do  not expect anything different this year.

 

OL is imply not a priority to Beane.

 

 

 

Oh I agree with that. OL was atrocious last year and is the biggest problem this team has right now. Hopefully we've improved at Guard at least, and that will help interior short yardage runs. Seems like running behind Torrence and Morse should work, and Brown is actually a pretty good run blocker too. But we're in big trouble in pass pro with our line. I hope they figure something out because Allen just can't always make magic happen with the rush in his face immediately every time he drops back. It's also on Dorsey to scheme up more 3-step, quick hitting type passes there. You have great route runners in Diggs and Kincaid and Davis to a somewhat lesser extent. More slants, bubble screens, and timing routes please... just get the ball out. 

[DapperCam]

Hopefully we have a new strategy this year. Line up Morris as a fullback, and smash into the line with Harris on either side of Torrence.

 

Allow Allen to keep it if he feels like he will be able to walk it in, but otherwise keep it simple.