Bills dead last in goal-line EPA/play last year(inside the 3 yard line) - Warren Sharp analysis

[Charles Romes]

Can’t we blame this on Saffold?

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, Pirate Angel said:

It says they werent the primary problem...indicating they where a problem. No defense lined up worried about our running game, play action is huge at the goal line Singletary is slow and our Oline was average. 

 

Really?

[BananaB]

8 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

  But.....3rd in tds per game, everyone in front of them played 17 games. Also they finished 2nd in points per game.

 

 The O was not awful, they justed scored more tds on the longer side & fewer tds on the shorter side than recent years. Exact same ppg as 2021, but more ypg in 2022 vs 2021.

 

 

The O needs to get better in these situations. It’s on Dorsey, he’s gotta improve and I think he can. When you’re comparing Chiefs and bills in these situations you shouldn’t be focusing on Allen and Mahommes, you should be focusing on Reid and Dorsey. 

[artmalibu]

41 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

  But.....3rd in tds per game, everyone in front of them played 17 games. Also they finished 2nd in points per game.

 

 The O was not awful, they justed scored more tds on the longer side & fewer tds on the shorter side than recent years. Exact same ppg as 2021, but more ypg in 2022 vs 2021.

 

 

 

Good point on only playing 16 games!!!   My statement about the O being awful was sarcasm,  shouldn't complain when your 5th in TDs when playing one less game...

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

36 minutes ago, BananaB said:

The O needs to get better in these situations. It’s on Dorsey, he’s gotta improve and I think he can. When you’re comparing Chiefs and bills in these situations you shouldn’t be focusing on Allen and Mahommes, you should be focusing on Reid and Dorsey. 

 

 I agree if we're going to beat the best of the best in the playoffs, we have to get better at the short game. Both in goal-line and 3rd and short.

 

 Weird thing is even not being very good at either, they scored the 2nd most ppg and were 1st in 3rd down percentage. When you score a ton of longer tds, it helps out in both areas. Points on the board and 100% of 3rd downs converted on the drive.

 

 Last year they actually had a slightly higher ypg average and 3rd down percentage than the 2020(Imo the best Allen led offense to date) yet averaged 2.9 ppg less than 2020. Short game & turnovers in the redzone.

 

 

 

[1ManRaid]

4 hours ago, Araiza Curse said:

Did you guys read the article? The running game wasn’t the issue on the goaline. It was Josh’s inability to find an open man despite having much longer time than Mahomes. Dorsey either needs to get more creative, but or Allen needs to put more work in to being better with this part of the game. 

 

Do you really not understand how Josh having to scramble for 83 seconds might pad the "time to throw" averages a bit?

 

It's also really unfair to compare him to Mahomes, who is infamous for his 6 inch "shovel passes" driving down his time to throw and driving up his completion percentage.  Anything to stay atop the passing charts I guess.

[balln]

I’ve been it saying for the past 3 years. 
 

josh isn’t consistently pin point accurate w short , intermediate and timing type throws

 

he just isn’t. Mahommes and burrow are insanely better at these than him. Fans need to wake up

 

and it’s ok. He’s still really good. I just hope he levels up. 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

Meh

 

Looking at plays inside the 3 yard line is such a small sample size I'm not going to assign much meaning to it. 

 

We had a few bad sequences that really skewed the results. Couple plays blown up by poor O-line play, couple mistakes by Josh, and voilà: our offense that was 2nd in points per game is suddenly the worst in the league at something. 

 

How do these stats look if we extend this to plays inside the 5? What about the 10 ?

 

I know we had the 9th best red zone offense in terms of TD %

 

 

[billsherd]

This is why Daboll  looked to score from few yards before the goal line. 

[Big Blitz]

Look at the defenses not remotely concerned about the running game.  These are almost all awful play calls. 
 

 

 

[gordong]

Harris was brought in for this exact reason....  line up 2 TE and Harris in the backfield and the defense is going to line up WAY different.   now you can run play action and have one of the TE sneak out or just throw it up to them... or smash Harris into the Endzone. 

[gobills404]

7 hours ago, Pirate Angel said:

No threat of a running game probably factors into this. 

Yeah imagine a world where the Bills were 8th in rushing yards per game and 3rd in rushing yards per attempt last season. That’d be so cool!

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-yards-per-game

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-rush-attempt

[Brand J]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

Look at the defenses not remotely concerned about the running game.  These are almost all awful play calls. 
 

 

 

Godawful goal line plays and execution. Hopefully Dorsey does his part and self scouts; he needs to make things easier. 

[HIT BY SPIKES]

9 hours ago, Pirate Angel said:

No threat of a running game probably factors into this. 

 

B-I-N-G-O!!!

 

If we had even an average NFL OL, we would simply pound the ball in near the GL.

 

However, OL is just not a priority to Beane so we have to rely on Josh once again to do his magic.

Edited August 17, 2023 by HIT BY SPIKES

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

To an extent, even when he does have the time, do you think it's him knowing the lines track record and expecting to have to get out of dodge, before that first read.

 

Regardless it is a scheme problem to me. If Josh isn't confident he'll be clean till his first read opens, seems like they need to set up something quicker developing.

 

Yea that is kinda what I meant about feeling comfortable. It definitely got to the point last year where Josh had totally lost faith in his line and was imagining pressure where it didn't exist which is completely normal for QBs with bad lines.

[Pirate Angel]

2 hours ago, gobills404 said:

Yeah imagine a world where the Bills were 8th in rushing yards per game and 3rd in rushing yards per attempt last season. That’d be so cool!

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-yards-per-game

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-rush-attempt

Yeah That includes our QB rushing, not exactly ideal inside goal line situations. Singletary's yards where inflated due to nobody giving a ***** if they gave him the ball. If we had a legitimate threat at RB we would have had far more attempts and Singletary would have more suiters in free agency with a loftier contract. 

[Billy Claude]

Anyone have their ranking on short yardage situations in 2020 and 2021? My guess it was decent in 2020 but already not very good in 2021.

[BananaB]

Like to see the total of attempts that determine these percentages. Help put more into perspective. Bills finish drives off away from the goal line more than any other team, atleast I thought they did. 

[mannc]

15 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

That's simply not true, the Bills ran the ball pretty well down at the goalline as stated in the article and in my initial post.

But what about the frequency of running plays down there?  Running plays are generally more successful than pass plays inside the 5-yard line.  My sense is that the Bills rarely tried to run the ball down there, other than Josh.

[Behindenemylines]

15 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

That's simply not true, the Bills ran the ball pretty well down at the goalline as stated in the article and in my initial post.

Yes but when teams aren’t worried about it in general it artificially makes the stats look better. If defenses had focused on the run at the GL I highly doubt our run game would be better. 
 

I believe balance in our offense will open up both Allen and the run game significantly at the GL.

 

This year we have the horses to do that.