Super Excited For This Draft Class

[AuntieEm]

On 8/15/2023 at 5:07 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

Thanks, well done digging up the Pats numbers I couldn't find! Really helpful. Agree on the Panthers comparison too. And on the bolded that is exactly the point. Rare that a team has two tight ends who are better receiving options than their 3rd best WR. 

 

  So perhaps this Bills team is the first to run with 12 personnel successfully on an unprecedented percentage of time.  

 

  I mean it isn't like the 90s K-gun based nò huddle,  the hurry up portion wasn't a new concept.  The fact a team could run it so proficiently for majority of games was a testament to their conditioning.

 

  We may be witnessing a new system that will be copied unsuccessfully by other teams.   It will also spawn new defenses to try to limit it.  

Edited August 16, 2023 by AuntieEm

[AuntieEm]

On 8/15/2023 at 8:07 AM, Freddie's Dead said:

 

Bruce Smith says hi. 

 

  Indeed.  Bruce Smith sure did live up to his overall 1 round pick.  I don't know all 1st round overall picks in nfl history let alone just the SB era but I would think it has a shot of being best overall no 1 pick and what they did in career.

[Billl]

47 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Pitts numbers are a bit misleading though cos he had over 1,000 yards as a rookie. Then injury and bad QBing held him back in 2022. Not that I am comparing Dalton Kincaid to Pitts (except in that I don't really think of either of them as "Tight Ends" they are basically both big receivers) but Pitts was the most freakishly talented Tight End designated player probably ever to come out. Kincaid isn't in that class. 

 

But equally he is way more talented than both McBride and Kmet in the same breath. I had like half a round difference in his grade compared to those two (and Friermuth for that matter). I had him a tick below where I had Hock (actually level with where I have Noah Fant that year), largely because Hock is a dual function player. He isn't a great blocker but he can block just enough and he can play inline. Honestly if I was comparing them just receiver vs receiver I'd hedge slightly towards Kincaid but not much in it. 

 

Of course none of that is determinative on his NFL career. Draft evaluations never are, you still gotta go out and do it. 

 

I am not a lover of pro comparisons for draft prospects but if you forced me into one for Kincaid it would have been Zach Ertz. He is a good enough receiver to be a receiver and have 1,000 yard seasons (Ertz had his year 6, I'd hope with Allen at QB Kincaid can get there sooner but it won't happen right away). He doesn't block well enough to ever be a single tight end in an offense that is going to run a lot of 11 personnel. 

 

Realistic career arc projection...

 

2023 - (Rookie) circa 55% of the O snaps; 45 receptions; 500 yards and 4 TDs

 

2024 - circa 65% of the O snaps; 65 receptions; 750 yards and 5 TDs

 

2025 - 75-80% of the O snaps; 80 receptions; 900 yards 6 TDs

 

And then hopefully he will hover in that 850-1,100 yards range for the following 4 or 5 seasons health permitting. Ertz had 5 years in that sort of territory (lower end of it but with much worse QB play) before the injuries and decline got him.

 

 

500 yards and 4 TDs seems very achievable, but only 3 rookie TEs have done it since 2010.  That's how rare it is for a rookie TE to be a difference maker.  Evan Engram did it last back in 2017.

 

Last season 3 TEs had 750 yards and 5 TDs (your year two projection).

 

True difference makers at TE are just incredibly rare.  

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, Billl said:

500 yards and 4 TDs seems very achievable, but only 3 rookie TEs have done it since 2010.  That's how rare it is for a rookie TE to be a difference maker.  Evan Engram did it last back in 2017.

 

Last season 3 TEs had 750 yards and 5 TDs (your year two projection).

 

True difference makers at TE are just incredibly rare.  

 

True top end tight end prospects are pretty rare though too. And ones walking into an offense QBd by an elite Quarterback are even rarer. Find the last 1st or 2nd round tight end who did that? Might be Gronk!

 

As for how many tight ends had 750 and 5...  how many of them were only really Tight Ends in name. That is only a tick above what Ertz had year 2. With worse Quarterback play and a game fewer. I don't think it is unrealistic at all. 

 

I have been evaluating prospects since 2014. The only tight ends I have had graded higher than Kincaid in that time have been Kyle Pitts, David Njoku, TJ Hockenson. I think Kincaid is pretty darn good. I think he is coming into an offense that will use him like a wide reveiver. I think he has an elite QB throwing him the ball. When you stack all those things up together I think the Trey McBrides and the Cole Kmets and even the OJ Howards (who I was not that high on when he was getting loads of buzz the year he came out) kinda are irrelevant because they were inferior talents, used very differently and playing with way lesser talent at Quarterback.

 

Engram - who you could make the comparison with in the sense that he is also a Tight End in name only he is a big receiver so at least usage is similar - had his strong rookie year with the corpse of Eli Manning's career. Engram might actually be the "low end" projection for Kincaid if Ertz is at the higher end. I think based on college Kincaid's hands are way better and drops have been an issue for Engram in the league but in his year with Eli and his year with Trevor he has been a 750 yards 5 TDs type guy.

Edited August 16, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Jauronimo]

On 8/15/2023 at 4:21 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

I have tried to find an example of a size and speed receiver who was highly recruited out of HS, didn't produce in college and then went on to out produce that in the pros. It's like a needle in a haystack. I am not writing him off but that makes me sceptical he is going to make a significant contribution. 

DK Metcalf fits that mold.  

[HappyCat]

On 8/15/2023 at 8:40 AM, Doc said:

Put WIlliams at MLB and let Milano make the calls if need be.

100% the best option!  I've watch ed the Colts game 3 times now and Williams was all over the field and making plays.  He can tackle and cover receivers.  Great draft pick that most people don't seem to appreciate - yet!!!

[Dr.Sack]

22 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Let's not pretend that number of guys still on the team is a good way to judge draft classes. It isn't.

 

Is a class with one guy remaining on your team out of seven picks but that guy is a superstar better than a class with six guys remaining on your team out of seven picks with two borderline starters two STs guys and one second teamer and one third teamer?

 

No, the idea's outright ridiculous.

 

In any case, under Beane the Bills have drafted well. Not spectacularly, but solidly.

 

And this year so far looks really good, although it's too early to say, as it generally is for the first three years or so when in question.

Beane is below the Chiefs and Bengals the past 4 drafts (2019-2022). Hopefully the 2023 class is great which is the OPs point. 

On 8/15/2023 at 9:16 AM, jwhit34 said:

This is misleading, if you look at Bills draft picks that are still playing in the league:

 

2019: 7-8 (Vosean Joseph not playing, Ford, Singletary, J. Johnson, D. Johnson, Sweeney on other teams)

2020: 6-7 (Fromm out, Moss, Hodgins on other teams)

2021: 7-8 (Stevenson out, WIldgoose, Anderson on other teams)

2022: 7-8 (Tenuta on GB, Araiza out)

 

That's 27-31. And the 2018 class 7-8 still playing, Teller, Edmunds and McCloud on other teams, Proehl out. 

 

To pile on, 2017 class all 6 on rosters, 3 on Bills, Zay Jones, Peterman and Vallejo on other teams. 

 

Total still in league: 40-45 or 89%. 

Our job is not to draft players and see them leave. Draft, develop and retain. And in the rare event you find a good one re-sign them. The Bills let Edmunds walk for a compensatory pick that Beane will likely spend on a Luke Tenuta-Tommy Doyle level talent. Yuck. 

Edited August 17, 2023 by Dr.Sack

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

DK Metcalf fits that mold.  

 

Only to an extent. DK produced in college he was just hurt. He has outproduced it in the NFL, sure. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Dr.Sack said:

The Bills let Edmunds walk for a compensatory pick that Beane will likely spend on a Luke Tenuta-Tommy Doyle level talent. Yuck. 

 

Comp pick for Edmunds - Round 3

 

Tommy Doyle - Round 5

Luke Tenuta - Round 6

[BullBuchanan]

20 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

No.

 

A player with Kincaid's exact skill set, background, etc. has NEVER been drafted. I don't mean that he's a generational talent, I mean every player's unique traits are ultimately going to define them. Player comps are fun but they don't actually mean anything. You're throwing out names like Ebron and Hockenson and Pitts and I'm telling you that none of those players' careers mean anything to what Kincaid will do.

 

 

That's a really silly take, imo and probably not even true at the extremes. Using the argument that we can't judge a player's potential because every one is a unique snowflake would seem to indicate that there's no reason to even scout a player because after all, who knows what they'll be. Teams can just be liek Al Davis and draft a punter or a speed demon in the first round, because they might become the best player in NFL history. It without question means there's no reason for pundits/experts to ever discuss a player let alone shlubs like us on a message board.

Comps exist because player archetypes exist. No two players might make the exact same plays or have the exact same career trajectory, but we don't deny that archetypes exist when discussing players and comps is just a natural extension of that. Sure they don't make up every facet of a person's physical and mental makeup, but that isn't the point. Close is usually good enough, because a lot of the time the player themself is not even the most meaningful contributor to their perceived ability and subsequent success.

 

20 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Nonsense. Cole Beasley was on the field for 73% of offensive snaps in 2020 and 66% in 2021. He wasn't asked to block. We're a high volume passing offense. The best pass catchers are going to be on the field most of the time.

 

I'm not predicting he actually gets 70% of the snaps by the way, they are going to make sure he is given ramp up time to acclimate to the pros. But his liabilities as a blocker will not keep him off the field.

While I appreciate the line of thought you have with Cole Beasley, it's an entirely different situation. Cole Beasley could be on the field for 70% of offensive snaps because he's a receiver who's built like a receiver. Despite him having a reputation for not being very athletic, he was far faster than Kincaid is right now and offers a different skillset in terms of receiving ability.

 

Take a look at KC. Travis Kelce plays slightly more from the slot but KC also has a primary slot receiver on the field a ton of the time. While Mecole Hardman was injured much of 2022, in 2021 he had 52% of offensive snaps to Kelce's 77%. The reason they are able to do this is because Kelce is simultaneously a TE and WR. Kelce's backup, Noah Grey, was on the field 51% of the time last season.

To me, that's a realistic comp for Kincaid, because Knox will need to be on the field almost every time you need an inline TE, and he'll likely often be on the field when you need a TE as a pass catcher. Kincaid will likely be on the field mostly when you need a TE as a pass catcher, will play some when you just need inline blocking, but will likely cede pass catching looks when the scheme calls for a WR skillset (Shakir, Hardy) to be in the slot. If you figure that Diggs, Davis, and an RB will be on the field most of the time, that leaves 2 open spots. You have to figure Knox will be there at least half the time if not 75%, so that leaves Kincaid, Harty and Shakir to share a maximum of 1.5 openings, and probably less if you assume Knox plays more, there's some 2 rb sets, Maybe Sherfield steals some reps etc.

Now, maybe Dorsey gets creative and uses Davis less and Kincaid gets some work on the outside. That would certainly get him on the field more, but we haven't seen that yet, so I'm not counting on it.
 

20 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

That scouting report on Kelce is not an accurate depiction of the player he became. The Chiefs rarely use him as a run blocker, he has become quite explosive, and he comes out of his breaks as well as any TE I've ever seen.

 

Completely disagree on his scouting report. Him getting better at being explosive out of his breaks doesn't discount initial reports or the value of a scouting report. As for his run blocking, he's averaged a higher PFF score than Dawson Knox did last season, who was lauded for his improved blocking. That Kelce isn't asked to block much is more related to his value as KC's #1 pass catcher (#2 when they had Hill) than it is a knock on his blocking ability.

Scouting report below. Hard to argue that Gronkowski was a poor comp, despite him being a better and more used blocker.
 

NFL Comparison

Rob Gronkowski

Overview

Kelce has been a tremendous run blocker throughout his career for the Bearcats, but really elevated his game as a receiver in his senior season. He isn't a tremendous athlete, but he does a lot of things very well. It's a deep tight end class, but Kelce's play suggests that he should be highly sought after.

 

Strengths

Kelce has an ideal tight end frame

Athletic for his size, with great strength, and the ability to stretch the field vertically

Very physical run blocker, generates power from the lower half, and will move defenders off the ball

Plays with leverage

Wide catching radius, can adjust and make the difficult catch

Tough to bring down after the catch

Light feet, and has lined up in numerous different positions

Weaknesses

Suspended for an entire season for violating team rules

Only one season of production

Doesn't have blazing speed

Not a tremendously explosive athlete

Doesn't come out of his breaks all that well

 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

That's a really silly take, imo and probably not even true at the extremes. Using the argument that we can't judge a player's potential because every one is a unique snowflake would seem to indicate that there's no reason to even scout a player because after all, who knows what they'll be.

 

I'm saying the exact opposite. I'm saying that scouting the player is the only thing that matters. Pointing to recently highly drafted TEs is not scouting Kincaid. Without context most historical draft data is totally meaningless. Like, why do you think Trey McBride's stats have any bearing at all on what Kincaid will do?

[BullBuchanan]

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm saying the exact opposite. I'm saying that scouting the player is the only thing that matters. Pointing to recently highly drafted TEs is not scouting Kincaid. Without context most historical draft data is totally meaningless. Like, why do you think Trey McBride's stats have any bearing at all on what Kincaid will do?

I don't, because I wouldn't comp Kincaid to McBride. McBride is traditional mold TE with plus receiving ability. I comped Allen to Elway when he was drafted, and while they're definitely not the same player, they're far closer and more useful in comparison than say Allen to Peyton Manning. Allen's running ability is so extra that no comp is going to be terribly accurate. Int he pocket, it's less extreme. Doing comps isn't supposed to tell you what stats a guy will have, it's to tell you how a guy will be utilized and play and that will possibly indicate what stats they will have.

Edited August 17, 2023 by BullBuchanan