Super Excited For This Draft Class

[BullBuchanan]

On 8/15/2023 at 4:17 AM, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I don’t think this at all. I think Kincaid is very much in the plans here and will see a lot of work in this offense. I almost expect him to be the second most targeted WR on this team tbh. I don’t see anyway you took this guy in round 1, with the roster makeup we had…and not use him. I’d be very surprised if he’s not targeted a ton.

I guess it depends what kind of numbers you're thinking when you say " a ton". Personally I'll be floored if he eclipses 50 catches without injuries to Diggs/Knox

23 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

This is misleading, if you look at Bills draft picks that are still playing in the league:

 

2019: 7-8 (Vosean Joseph not playing, Ford, Singletary, J. Johnson, D. Johnson, Sweeney on other teams)

2020: 6-7 (Fromm out, Moss, Hodgins on other teams)

2021: 7-8 (Stevenson out, WIldgoose, Anderson on other teams)

2022: 7-8 (Tenuta on GB, Araiza out)

 

That's 27-31. And the 2018 class 7-8 still playing, Teller, Edmunds and McCloud on other teams, Proehl out. 

 

To pile on, 2017 class all 6 on rosters, 3 on Bills, Zay Jones, Peterman and Vallejo on other teams. 

 

Total still in league: 40-45 or 89%. 

Fromm is on the Commanders

[BullBuchanan]

On 8/15/2023 at 10:28 AM, Motorin' said:

 

 

I totally agree with Gunner, and it's bc I think Kincaid is going to be used more as a big slot wr than a true #2 inline TE. 

 

I don't see Harty or Shakir being high volume targets at this point. Maybe they're 30 catch guys at best? 

 

If Kincaid can handle 70-80 targets, which I think he can, he's in the running to become the #2 receiver on the team. At least by next year. 

 

I see 50-60 targets this year. Maybe on par with Knox. Without asking Kincaid to stay in to pass block. 

 

You're casually projecting a rookie TE who was a late first round pick to become a top 10 player next year?

Look, Kincaid could become the greatest TE of all time, but people are acting like it's a foregone conclusion based on absolutely nothing, and they've been doing it since the day he was drafted. No one has even seen him play, and his college tape doesn't show a generational player. He wasn't even the positional #1 from a lot of experts.

I love the excitement, but I don't love the hype machine and unrealistic expectations for the kid. When Knox was drafted he had ridiculous RAS and that never materialized into a dynamic weapon. Kincaid had far higher production in college, but his measureables aren't elite like say Kyle Pitts.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 8/15/2023 at 2:06 AM, BullBuchanan said:

I'm not anywhere near this optimistic. The hype train on Kincaid is unreal, and it's going to be nearly impossible for him to live up to it. There are rarely more than 3-4 difference making tight ends in the league at any given time. Maybe we'll get lucky with this kid and he'll be one, or maybe he'll be one of the 7-10 nice players behind that group (which is what knox is) That's capable of having a great game or even a great season. Unless your name is Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzales, I really don't think it matters that much.

If the guard turns out to be good, that's cool. That doesn't put games in the win column from my seat.

Williams is going to have a very uphill battle to even get on the field over the next 2 years, and frankly I don't like the idea of him replacing Milano even at that point. If you want to celebrate this draft as the best ever, I need our 3rd round pick to have a way to get on the field besides special teams. The pick is Bernard take 2 except maybe worse because he doesn't even play a position that will be open any time soon.

Not sure the rest of the class makes the team. So, best case scenario what did we get here? A #2 TE/part time slot receiver, a potential starting guard, and a special teams LB. If that's Beane's best draft ever, I think that's a pretty strong indictment of how poor his drafts have been.

Kincaid has just as good of a chance as any prospect to become a guy like Kelce or Gates. I’m not even worried about his ability to put up a great season catching the ball. Josh has no problem utilizing his TEs. It’s the blocking that concerns me. 

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Kincaid has just as good of a chance as any prospect to become a guy like Kelce or Gates. I’m not even worried about his ability to put up a great season catching the ball. Josh has no problem utilizing his TEs. It’s the blocking that concerns me. 

Sure, and that chance is very, very close to zero. You're talking about the greatest TE of all time and another that's top 5.

If teams could just casually draft the greatest TE of all time any year they wanted int he late first round, they'd all be doing it. Over the last 20 years, there have been 10-15 TEs that were truly special and then a bunch of guys who had some nice years and a list that goes on forever of guys who could have been.

 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Sure, and that chance is very, very close to zero. You're talking about the greatest TE of all time and another that's top 5.

If teams could just casually draft the greatest TE of all time any year they wanted int he late first round, they'd all be doing it. Over the last 20 years, there have been 10-15 TEs that were truly special and then a bunch of guys who had some nice years and a list that goes on forever of guys who could have been.

 

I mean they nabbed Josh Allen. Why not another possible generational talent? I just said he has as good of a chance as anyone. I think he will be closer to a TJ Hockensen or Dallas Goedert, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he became something more. The USC game really shows what he’s capable of. 

[Paup 1995MVP]

On 8/15/2023 at 1:11 AM, GreggTX said:

This may go down as Beane's best draft to date -- A pretty tall order since he nabbed Josh and Edmunds together. But Edmunds is gone. Meanwhile the UDFA's look like 2 or 3 of them are sure to make the PS or better. Certainly, Shavers will stick somewhere. While the day 3 guys haven't shown much, it's still early -- At least for our 5th rounder. Meanwhile, the top 3 picks look like solid gold. To say that Kincaid and Torrence have shined is an understatement. They are everything we hoped for and then some. I know it's too early, but everything they have done to this point has been outstanding. Don't let me stop there either. I was disappointed when they drafted Dorian Williams. Not any more! He looks great too and was possibly the best defensive player on the field last Saturday. I wonder how long it will be before he forces the coaches to find a way to keep him on the field. Maybe add a little bulk and let him play besides Milano.

 

I'd love to hear your thoughts on our rookie class.

We have played one preseason game in 2023 so far.  So maybe wait a little while before getting too excited about our draft class.  I thought our second and third string WR's looked real good.  Patmon Shavers Johnson and Ateman were making plays all over the field.  As did our backup RB's.  Thought the run blocking was good.  OT play is always questionable.  (biggest potential weakness on the team)  D Line looked really dominant.  Real good to see.  We have a good team.  The Colts don't.  

[HappyDays]

43 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Look, Kincaid could become the greatest TE of all time, but people are acting like it's a foregone conclusion

 

No we're not. We're trying to tell you he will be a significant contributor in his rookie season. You'd have to ignore pretty much everything we've heard about him coming out of the draft and throughout training camp to think otherwise.

 

45 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

When Knox was drafted he had ridiculous RAS and that never materialized into a dynamic weapon.

 

Knox and Kincaid could not be more different as players. Now you're just saying random crap.

 

I know your desire was for us to draft a 3rd round LB in the 1st round, but don't let your pre-draft feelings about Kincaid color your opinions. We have a lot of new information since he was drafted. Whatever expectations you had it's time to modify them.

[Airseven]

I'm not particularly excited about the class, but I appreciate they went offense with the top choices. Torrence will have the most opportunity to contribute in year 1 - due to both the nature of his position and lack of competition around him. Have to expect an adjustment for Kincaid, but hopefully he contributes as a rotational piece year 1 and becomes a primary target year 2. Williams and Shorter are developmental projects so who really knows at this point. They do have needed upside.

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

No we're not. We're trying to tell you he will be a significant contributor in his rookie season. You'd have to ignore pretty much everything we've heard about him coming out of the draft and throughout training camp to think otherwise.

 

 

Knox and Kincaid could not be more different as players. Now you're just saying random crap.

 

I know your desire was for us to draft a 3rd round LB in the 1st round, but don't let your pre-draft feelings about Kincaid color your opinions. We have a lot of new information since he was drafted. Whatever expectations you had it's time to modify them.

I never disagreed that his impact would be "significant". It's just that some folks here are applying an extreme definition of that word that i find to be incredibly unlikely, regardless of talent. To just say you think he's getting 80 catches next season base don nothing bunch a hunch is ######ed.

I don't have any pre-draft feelings about Kincaid at all. By all accounts he was no worse than the 2nd best prospect this year, but absolutely no one had him as an elite level prospect like Pitts, Hockenson, Ebron. Now, you could very reasonably argue that being an elite prospect doesn't matter, because plenty often those guys don't turn out either. Only Hockenson from that list has really turned out so far and it's arguable he still hasn't reached draft status.

If we're going to go down that road though, does any of the pre-draft talk about TE's matter? If you go down the list of dozens of TEs drafted over the last decade, you'll find that most of those early round TEs never turned into anything. Of the top 10 TEs in the league right now, only 2 (hockenson, pitts) were taken int he first round and they were both taken top 10. The rest of the group is largely 3rd round + picks (Kelce, Kittle, Goeddert, Andrews,Shultz, Waller, knox) If you wnat to include Njoku in the top 10 you can and he bumps their share to 3 and he was drafted similarly to Kincaid

[HappyDays]

31 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I never disagreed that his impact would be "significant". It's just that some folks here are applying an extreme definition of that word that i find to be incredibly unlikely, regardless of talent. To just say you think he's getting 80 catches next season base don nothing bunch a hunch is ######ed.

I don't have any pre-draft feelings about Kincaid at all. By all accounts he was no worse than the 2nd best prospect this year, but absolutely no one had him as an elite level prospect like Pitts, Hockenson, Ebron. Now, you could very reasonably argue that being an elite prospect doesn't matter, because plenty often those guys don't turn out either. Only Hockenson from that list has really turned out so far and it's arguable he still hasn't reached draft status.

If we're going to go down that road though, does any of the pre-draft talk about TE's matter? If you go down the list of dozens of TEs drafted over the last decade, you'll find that most of those early round TEs never turned into anything. Of the top 10 TEs in the league right now, only 2 (hockenson, pitts) were taken int he first round and they were both taken top 10. The rest of the group is largely 3rd round + picks (Kelce, Kittle, Goeddert, Andrews,Shultz, Waller, knox) If you wnat to include Njoku in the top 10 you can and he bumps their share to 3 and he was drafted similarly to Kincaid

 

The truth is I don't care about other TEs that have been drafted. Their success or failure has nothing to do with Kincaid. It's no different than when you tried to claim earlier in the thread that because 12 personnel league-wide is not very common, that means we shouldn't expect it to be common in our offense. None of that data matters at all. Before Josh Allen there were no <60% completion QBs from the Mountain West that ended up being successful. Picking out data from entirely different players in entirely different circumstances tells us nothing about the specific player in question.

 

It's telling that not once have you actually used any evaluation of Kincaid himself to downplay your expectations about him, just data from other teams and other players. Everything we've heard is that Kincaid is constantly with the 1st team offense, he's separating, he's making himself available to the QB, he's finding soft spots in zone, he's catching everything. Plus he played in a pro style multiple TE sets offense at Utah and was an older prospect which means his development track is already ahead of schedule. You're throwing out all of that evidence because of a completely different player drafted by the Lions nearly a decade ago? That's poor analysis.

 

One factor I think you are severely underestimating is Kincaid's cerebral abilities. That is what makes Kelce great, as much or more than his physical skills IMO. Kincaid on his college tape and apparently throughout training camp shows a knack for working himself open in zone coverage. I think that gives him a huge edge as a player beyond what other former prospects may have offered.

 

Edited August 16, 2023 by HappyDays

[MiracleAtRich1393]

Love the Kincaid & Torrence picks and Williams looks nice but he's behind Milano when we needed a MLB and Bernard/Spector can fit a Milano backup role already.

 

Would rather have had Darnell Washington at 93 and a real MIKE with blitzing ability like a Sirvocea Dennis at 150. Shorter could have been had in the Nick Broeker/Alex Austin spot (or as a UDFA) IMO. This is mostly moot if Williams can play MLB. I just loved the Darnell Washington potential to pair that beastly frame up with Knox & Kincaid and if you're not going to take a top tier LB I like sticking with day 3 for that position, it's becoming like RB for me.

[Motorin']

2 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

You're casually projecting a rookie TE who was a late first round pick to become a top 10 player next year?

Look, Kincaid could become the greatest TE of all time, but people are acting like it's a foregone conclusion based on absolutely nothing, and they've been doing it since the day he was drafted. No one has even seen him play, and his college tape doesn't show a generational player. He wasn't even the positional #1 from a lot of experts.

I love the excitement, but I don't love the hype machine and unrealistic expectations for the kid. When Knox was drafted he had ridiculous RAS and that never materialized into a dynamic weapon. Kincaid had far higher production in college, but his measureables aren't elite like say Kyle Pitts.

 

So Brandon Beane is a liar when he said his first round draft pick is a big slot receiver. Got it. 

[BullBuchanan]

46 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The truth is I don't care about other TEs that have been drafted. Their success or failure has nothing to do with Kincaid. It's no different than when you tried to claim earlier in the thread that because 12 personnel league-wide is not very common, that means we shouldn't expect it to be common in our offense. None of that data matters at all. Before Josh Allen there were no <60% completion QBs from the Mountain West that ended up being successful. Picking out data from entirely different players in entirely different circumstances tells us nothing about the specific player in question.

 

It's telling that not once have you actually used any evaluation of Kincaid himself to downplay your expectations about him, just data from other teams and other players. Everything we've heard is that Kincaid is constantly with the 1st team offense, he's separating, he's making himself available to the QB, he's finding soft spots in zone, he's catching everything. Plus he played in a pro style multiple TE sets offense at Utah and was an older prospect which means his development track is already ahead of schedule. You're throwing out all of that evidence because of a completely different player drafted by the Lions nearly a decade ago? That's poor analysis.

 

One factor I think you are severely underestimating is Kincaid's cerebral abilities. That is what makes Kelce great, as much or more than his physical skills IMO. Kincaid on his college tape and apparently throughout training camp shows a knack for working himself open in zone coverage. I think that gives him a huge edge as a player beyond what other former prospects may have offered.

 

So your entire thesis is that a thing that has never happened before is definitely going to happen now. Makes sense and puts the rest of this thread in context.

I don't play the lottery.

I've repeatedly mentioned Kincaid's liabilities as a blocker as limit on his near term ability to get on the field. He's also smaller than you'd like to see in an elite TE and doesn't have elite level athleticism, though he is a very solid athlete. Take a guy like Mike Gesicki who is a far superior athelete with much better size who played in a  pro style offense and wasn't a very good blocker coming out of college either. If you told me that was Kincaid's comp, ok I'm on board. ANy talk about Kelce should be immediately and thoroughly ridiculed though. The players couldn't be more different.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/dalton-kincaid/32004b49-4e06-9130-e563-7edd228031c8
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/mike-gesicki/32004745-5349-0798-d83d-d46852aa6fbb

[Doc]

The first 3 picks will be starters at the latest by the last quarter of the season.

[BullBuchanan]

23 minutes ago, Motorin&#x27; said:

 

So Brandon Beane is a liar when he said his first round draft pick is a big slot receiver. Got it. 

No, but you don't seem interested in having an intelligent discussion. If all he is is a "big slot receiver" then that will keep him off the field even more than if he was a hybrid TE and WR. You can't have a big slow WR in the slot 100% of your offensive snaps.

[Billl]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

The truth is I don't care about other TEs that have been drafted. Their success or failure has nothing to do with Kincaid. It's no different than when you tried to claim earlier in the thread that because 12 personnel league-wide is not very common, that means we shouldn't expect it to be common in our offense. None of that data matters at all. Before Josh Allen there were no <60% completion QBs from the Mountain West that ended up being successful. Picking out data from entirely different players in entirely different circumstances tells us nothing about the specific player in question.

It only tells you nothing if you choose to ignore it.  Rookie TEs have a long history of not being immediately productive.  

 

Last season, Trey McBride was the first TE taken.  He had 29 catches, 265 yards, and 1 TD.  The top performer was Okonkwo who had 32/450/3.

 

In 2021, Pitts was the first taken at pick 4 overall.  He's got 96 catches, 1382 yards, and 3 TDs in two seasons.  Friermuth has been the most productive TE from that class with 123/1229/9.

 

In 2020, Kmet was the first taken at 43rd overall.  In three seasons, he's put up 138/1399, 9.  He's been the only TE from that class to do anything at all 

 

In 2019, Hockenson was the 8th overall pick.  In four seasons, he's got 246/2587/18.  He's been the most productive from that class.

 

Even the most elite TE prospects put up very pedestrian numbers early in their careers.  Kincaid was largely considered to be the best or second best prospect this year, but he wasn't considered to be elite.  If there was any reason to believe that he was, he wouldn't have made it anywhere near the 25th pick in a weak draft class.

 

Now that doesn't mean that DK won't put up big rookie numbers, but it would make him an extreme outlier.  Assuming that a late first round pick is going to be historically productive based on nothing more than a few weeks of training camp coach-speak and one pre-season game where he played six snaps and had no stats doesn't make a ton of sense.

[GunnerBill]

58 minutes ago, Billl said:

It only tells you nothing if you choose to ignore it.  Rookie TEs have a long history of not being immediately productive.  

 

Last season, Trey McBride was the first TE taken.  He had 29 catches, 265 yards, and 1 TD.  The top performer was Okonkwo who had 32/450/3.

 

In 2021, Pitts was the first taken at pick 4 overall.  He's got 96 catches, 1382 yards, and 3 TDs in two seasons.  Friermuth has been the most productive TE from that class with 123/1229/9.

 

In 2020, Kmet was the first taken at 43rd overall.  In three seasons, he's put up 138/1399, 9.  He's been the only TE from that class to do anything at all 

 

In 2019, Hockenson was the 8th overall pick.  In four seasons, he's got 246/2587/18.  He's been the most productive from that class.

 

Even the most elite TE prospects put up very pedestrian numbers early in their careers.  Kincaid was largely considered to be the best or second best prospect this year, but he wasn't considered to be elite.  If there was any reason to believe that he was, he wouldn't have made it anywhere near the 25th pick in a weak draft class.

 

Now that doesn't mean that DK won't put up big rookie numbers, but it would make him an extreme outlier.  Assuming that a late first round pick is going to be historically productive based on nothing more than a few weeks of training camp coach-speak and one pre-season game where he played six snaps and had no stats doesn't make a ton of sense.

 

The Pitts numbers are a bit misleading though cos he had over 1,000 yards as a rookie. Then injury and bad QBing held him back in 2022. Not that I am comparing Dalton Kincaid to Pitts (except in that I don't really think of either of them as "Tight Ends" they are basically both big receivers) but Pitts was the most freakishly talented Tight End designated player probably ever to come out. Kincaid isn't in that class. 

 

But equally he is way more talented than both McBride and Kmet in the same breath. I had like half a round difference in his grade compared to those two (and Friermuth for that matter). I had him a tick below where I had Hock (actually level with where I have Noah Fant that year), largely because Hock is a dual function player. He isn't a great blocker but he can block just enough and he can play inline. Honestly if I was comparing them just receiver vs receiver I'd hedge slightly towards Kincaid but not much in it. 

 

Of course none of that is determinative on his NFL career. Draft evaluations never are, you still gotta go out and do it. 

 

I am not a lover of pro comparisons for draft prospects but if you forced me into one for Kincaid it would have been Zach Ertz. He is a good enough receiver to be a receiver and have 1,000 yard seasons (Ertz had his year 6, I'd hope with Allen at QB Kincaid can get there sooner but it won't happen right away). He doesn't block well enough to ever be a single tight end in an offense that is going to run a lot of 11 personnel. 

 

Realistic career arc projection...

 

2023 - (Rookie) circa 55% of the O snaps; 45 receptions; 500 yards and 4 TDs

 

2024 - circa 65% of the O snaps; 65 receptions; 750 yards and 5 TDs

 

2025 - 75-80% of the O snaps; 80 receptions; 900 yards 6 TDs

 

And then hopefully he will hover in that 850-1,100 yards range for the following 4 or 5 seasons health permitting. Ertz had 5 years in that sort of territory (lower end of it but with much worse QB play) before the injuries and decline got him.

 

 

[BuffaloBillyG]

4 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

I guess it depends what kind of numbers you're thinking when you say " a ton". Personally I'll be floored if he eclipses 50 catches without injuries to Diggs/Knox

Fromm is on the Commanders

It's not that far off base IMO. That's (if he plays all 17 games) a hair under 3 catches a game. You don't think he'll average 3 catches a game? For a team that throws quite a bit that's some pretty low expectations.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

So your entire thesis is that a thing that has never happened before is definitely going to happen now.

 

No.

 

A player with Kincaid's exact skill set, background, etc. has NEVER been drafted. I don't mean that he's a generational talent, I mean every player's unique traits are ultimately going to define them. Player comps are fun but they don't actually mean anything. You're throwing out names like Ebron and Hockenson and Pitts and I'm telling you that none of those players' careers mean anything to what Kincaid will do.

 

Every single player that ends up successful in the NFL is an outlier. Almost every player that ends up successful you could point to some aspect of their profile that had never ended up successful before. In this case you're using a broad brush of "1st round TEs" which has an extremely limited sample size to go off of.

 

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

I've repeatedly mentioned Kincaid's liabilities as a blocker as limit on his near term ability to get on the field.

 

Nonsense. Cole Beasley was on the field for 73% of offensive snaps in 2020 and 66% in 2021. He wasn't asked to block. We're a high volume passing offense. The best pass catchers are going to be on the field most of the time.

 

I'm not predicting he actually gets 70% of the snaps by the way, they are going to make sure he is given ramp up time to acclimate to the pros. But his liabilities as a blocker will not keep him off the field.

 

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

ANy talk about Kelce should be immediately and thoroughly ridiculed though. The players couldn't be more different.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/dalton-kincaid/32004b49-4e06-9130-e563-7edd228031c8
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/mike-gesicki/32004745-5349-0798-d83d-d46852aa6fbb

 

That scouting report on Kelce is not an accurate depiction of the player he became. The Chiefs rarely use him as a run blocker, he has become quite explosive, and he comes out of his breaks as well as any TE I've ever seen.

 

When people compare Kincaid to Kelce, they're referring to Kelce's current skill set and role in the Chiefs offense. Obviously expecting Kincaid to become the GOAT TE at any point in his career, let alone as a rookie, is not realistic. But there are some comparative traits:

 

-Elite hands

-Good breaks out of his route

-RAC ability

-Instincts to work open in zone coverage and make himself available for his QB

 

You seem to think that when people compare him to Kelce they're predicting he will have the same type of career. That isn't it at all. Ertz is another fair example, although personally I see more RAC ability from Kincaid than I ever saw from Ertz.

 

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Kincaid was largely considered to be the best or second best prospect this year, but he wasn't considered to be elite.  If there was any reason to believe that he was, he wouldn't have made it anywhere near the 25th pick in a weak draft class.

 

Teams had concerns about the back injury he suffered in college.

[krf139]

Can we at least wait until the season starts before making declarations about the draft class?