Good Night / Bad Night - Pre-season game 1

[GunnerBill]

22 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Trading a player has no effect on the comp formula.  The comp formula strictly involves FA

https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks

 

I don't think Houston will have any interest in trading Keenum.  If any QB is available, it might be Davis Mills, but I think Houston will keep 3 QB: CJ Stroud as the promising rookie, Davis Mills as the vet who has shown he can play somewhat, and Case Keenum as the wily veteran mentor.
 

And this isn't for you, but with injuries etc no team is going to be trading us a QB in pre-season.  They will wait until they're heading into the season healthy.

 

Maybe.  But then he needed to be spending part of his off-season making a project out of that, as Knox did.

 

Trades don't count you are right, because in essence he takes that qualifying contract with him. Players being cut in camp has knocked them out of consideration in previous years though. Don't know if it still does (and the exact formula is not published by the league) but there was a year the Ravens looked like they were on for no picks by the projections all summer and then cut like 3 of their lower level FA signings at the end of camp and ended up with a pick. 

[BADOLBILZ]

45 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Shakir actually had a pretty good night 1 bad drop obviously that triggered our PTSD but he made some tougher catches and picked up a great block on that Kyle Allen scramble.

 

 

Post-traumatic implies that it's stress because of something that happened in the past.   Not something that's still happening on a daily basis.   Yes he had a robust 11% drop rate on 27 targets last season but he's been dropping passes and/or punts on the regular in camp.    

 

Tupac might be gone but 2Drop Shakir is alive and well.

[Rocky Landing]

2 minutes ago, balln said:

Cuz he takes notes and has a notebook

I think that notebook, and his sit-down interview likely identified Elam, in their minds, as a process guy, and dedicated to self-improvement. Obviously, they felt confident that they could develop him into an effective, zone CB-- and they might still. But, it is taking a while....

[Sierra Foothills]

4 hours ago, Slippery Rubber Mats said:

As much as this forum has been growing a hate for Kyle Allen, he has a zip on his ball that Barkley couldn't dream of. Barkley throws ducks. Allen has NFL arm strength.

 

He needs to get his ***** together though

 

Is your screen name a reference to Kevin Kolb? 😅

 

Slippery Rubber Mats

Community Member

 1.1k

Location:Outside on a field where you least expect them

 

3 hours ago, without a drought said:

Allen looked bad, but did show some arm strength and some decent speed running.  He's only been here for a few months and this was the first time playing against someone besides his teammates. Barkley on the other hand is starting his 5th season out of the last 6 with this team, looking more comfortable should be a given. I believe that is why Barkley ran with the 2s more often was to get more productive practices for the rest of the team (on offense and defense).

 

 

To the bolded on Kyle Allen, for complete context he's entering his 6th season in the NFL after having started 2 years in college.

 

His play yesterday is disappointing but as was pointed out upthread, Keenum didn't look like a world beater in his preseason debut for the Bills so there's that.

 

2 hours ago, Dan Darragh said:

What's up with the undershirts sticking out the bottom of the jerseys?  Looks like crap.

 

I noticed that. I also wasn't very pleased with the ensembles worn by the athletic training staff and the strength coaches.

 

2 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

The last Bobby Babich press conference I saw he talked directly about that. If I'm not mistaken he even mentioned needing guys with speed and play aggressive with plus athletic make up to combat the way modern NFL offenses operate, so I believe you are spot on here.

 

Also found it interesting in the same interview he mentioned that the Bills do actually have a height/weight baseline that they look for and that Williams and Bernard exceeded that.

 

Absolutely agree on the disconnect between what the Bills look for in a LB as opposed to what traditional football fans look for in a LB.

 

On that subject has anyone heard anything about how Jack Campbell is looking in Lions' camp?

 

2 hours ago, Prospector said:

See what happens, you use the wrong “they’re” and then it catches on and Shaw66 uses the same wrong “they’re” right after you. I had to reread both a couple times to make sense of it. They’re using their wrong there’s. 

 

Their you go again...

 

33 minutes ago, Steptide said:

Shakir is our new zay Jones. Just give him like 5 years and he'll figure it out 😅

 

Josh Reed also comes to mind.

 

19 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

I don't really follow enough teams in the NFL to say this with absolute certainty, but it strikes me that there is a real shortage of quality O-linemen in the league at the moment-- especially compared to the number of quality D-linemen. There's a lot of handwringing on this forum about the quality of our O-line depth, but is there a team in the league without that problem? In fact, there are numerous teams who don't have a quality starting RT. In fact, there are numerous teams that have issues at starting LT. 

 

I know it's only preseason, and I am an unapologetic homer, but yesterday left me feeling pretty good about the O-line.

 

To the bolded, I can't remember a time watching the NFL that O-line depth wasn't thin across the league. There's maybe only 1-2 teams that actually have 5 solid starters much less backups.

 

[FireChans]

34 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The problem is that that "1 bad drop" has been who he is as a player since Boise State. You can't have a double digit drop percentage and be successful in this league, not unless you are the elite of the elite in some other skill. Shakir is a pretty good route runner, he's pretty good with the ball in the hands, but he has below average physical abilities and abysmal hands (relative to the league standard). If we take away the draft hype around him, that is the profile of a player that should be firmly on the roster bubble.

The Shakir hype train was so strange. Really goes to show that a pick that fills a need doesn’t mean the pick will be any good.

[FireChans]

34 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

I don't really follow enough teams in the NFL to say this with absolute certainty, but it strikes me that there is a real shortage of quality O-linemen in the league at the moment-- especially compared to the number of quality D-linemen. There's a lot of handwringing on this forum about the quality of our O-line depth, but is there a team in the league without that problem? In fact, there are numerous teams who don't have a quality starting RT. In fact, there are numerous teams that have issues at starting LT. 

 

I know it's only preseason, and I am an unapologetic homer, but yesterday left me feeling pretty good about the O-line.

If you polled the fans, about  28 teams in the NFL would say they have a terrible OL. 

 

Biggest issue from a performance perspective is how much of a liability your worst player on the OL is. You could have two All-Pros but you can’t have a Saffold at LG. 

[0017]

5 hours ago, benderbender said:

Kaiir was just watching Sauce Gardner highlights and can't understand why the refs don't swallow the whistle for him.

Exactly what I thought when they called Elam for PI, that is a standard play for sauce, every play he grabs jersey. It’s sickening. 

[oldmanfan]

Was moving my daughter back to college yesterday so watching the replay now.  Couple quick impressions:

 

1.  D line looks good, ton of depth

2.  We have at least 9 WRs that are NFL players.

3.  Torrence and McGovern are going to make the O line a lot better.

4.  Dodson will be OK.  Not great by any means but OK.  
5.  Dorsey is emphasizing short dump offs and the backup QBs got the message

6.  Williams will be a good LB down the road, very active.

7.  Having 3 guys competing for one CB spot is a helluva lot better than just 1.  We have 4 CBS that can play outside.

8.  Great to see Damar out there making plays

9.  Give Boettger an injury settlement.  And let Gouriage get some reps against better D linemen - liked what I saw from him.

Edited August 13, 2023 by oldmanfan

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

A lot of talk among Bills fans about Justin Shorter's lack of production yesterday. Here's the reality: Shorter was in the game for only 10 pass attempts during two series with Kyle Allen in the first half only. He never played with Barkley. Allen only looked to his side of the field on two of those plays.

[LeGOATski]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

As I said, I think they're options with Williams this season will be limited, because they've chosen not to give him experience in the middle this summer.   That suggests that if he gets significant playing time this season, it will be on the outside.  Milano's not coming off the field for significant snaps, so that means he slides to the middle.   I don't know that it's possible for anyone to take over that role without real experience there.  All the reads are different.   

 

Maybe Williams is turning out to be a quick learner and what people saw yesterday was that he's now getting up to speed.   My recollection is that Milano was the same early on - he was eye-popping quick closing and tackling in the run game, and he just kept having more impact from month to month.  If that's what's happening, maybe they'll start giving him reps in the middle during the season, and even rotating him onto the field a bit.  But I'd think the only he can be a factor in the middle is to have an off-season learning the position.  

In my opinion, the Bills have zero LBs who can be an impact in the middle. In a normal 4-3, Dodson or Klein could be good, but they're a liability with the extra coverage responsibilities they're given in this defense. If they opted to go with higher upside there, like Bernard or Williams, I'd be fine with living with those growing pains for a while.

[Scott7975]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Back by absolutely no popular acclaim it's Gunner's pre-season good night bad night thread. A sort of "Sal's arrow up / arrow down" but for the thinking man . The Bills made it 11 wins from their last 12 pre-season outings with victory over the Colts but what did it mean for those position groups and players where questions abound. Here's my take:

 

 

Good Night for...

 

The Running Backs - First things first, this is James Cook's job. All the "he can't be an RB1" naysayers are about to be proven wrong. Not only did he have a touchdown run on a nicely set up and executed (loved Trent Sherfield's block) outside rush but he showed nice burst and toughness running inside on a couple of plays too. I think he has better vision than the guy he is replacing and while I am fine with giving him a few snaps with Josh just to make sure they have mesh points down etc, I don't need to see much more of him this pre-season. Behind Cook Latavius Murray (whose roster spot has felt safe since a jet ski took care of Nyheim Hines' knee) took advantage of Damien Harris's absence to show he still has some burst in those old legs and Jordan Mims (highlighted in my sleepers thread before the draft) took his opportunity too. He might have only averaged 3.3 yards per carry, but he had a couple of nice bursts and a catch and run that showed his natural feel as a receiving back. He isn't a breakaway speed home run hitter but his vision really stands out and he sees the right gap instinctively. I don't think he will make the 53 but if the Bills are able to sneak him through to the PS he is someone more than able to step in if Harris's injury troubles catch up to him again. 

 

O'Cyrus Torrence - I think this competition is over guys. The job is won. O'Cyrus Torrence got the start at right guard after battling Ryan Bates in camp and he took every snap with the first team unit and then stayed in there for a couple of drives with the second team. Bates played exclusively as the second team center. And boy did Cryus take the opportunity. He was a significant part of the Bills' early run game success. He moves people at the point of attack and while tougher tests will lie ahead in pass protection this was a really impressive first outing. Isn't impossible that the Bills revert to Bates at guard week 2, but I think it is trending strongly towards the rookie being the guy. 

 

Boogie Basham - The one place where I think the Bills are guaranteed to cut someone who makes another NFL roster this season is defensive line. They have 5 proven vet tackles (Jones, Oliver, Phillips, Settle, Ford) and 6 proved vet edge players (Von, Groot, AJE, Floyd, Boogie and Shaq). I don't think they can keep 11. Shaq is the "easiest" cut of those but he has played a very specific role for the Bills in the past as an edge setting end and so I was leaning towards Boogie maybe being traded. But he was active yesterday, made a couple of nice run stops and had a sack. He hasn't flashed much in camp so it was a performance he needed. 

 

Ryan Van Demark - The former UConn tackle came into the NFL as an UDFA of the Colts last year, but after being let go in final cuts declined an offer to join the Colts Practice Squad in order to join the Bills. After a year on the practice squad I have seen Astro's camp reports mention him a couple of times as a guy who has had some run with the 2nd team O Line in camp. Yesterday he was the left tackle on the 2nd line for the first drive that line was in. Then Quess replaced him but he came back as the left tackle of the 3rd line, switching to the right side when the luckless Tommy Doyle got hurt. It's fair to say tackle depth behind the starters is a question on this roster, but Van Demark looked good at both spots last night, and if there is a player who I would have told you a week ago had no shot at the 53 that I'm now seeing a path for - he is the guy!

 

The bottom of the roster receivers - Where do we stand receiver wise? Diggs, Davis and Sherfield are locks based on camp reports and pre-season usage. I think based on contract and skillset Harty is a lock too. Shakir is close to a lock but not quite there. He had two nice plays last night and then an awful drop on a potential 3rd down conversion. After that there is a a spot to shoot for. I thought Shorter might have the inside track given draft status and special teams but I am pretty sure he didn't get first run as a gunner last night (I think Ingram was one and I presumed Neal was the other.... but the useless new gamepass international doesn't have the full game replay up yet so I can't double check). He also had zero targets in the pass game though I think was mainly out there with Kyle Allen. The guys who flashed were Andy Isabella, Tyrell Shavers, KeeSeanJohnson, Marcell Ateman and Dezmon Patmon who finshed as the Bills five leading receivers on the day. All of those except Shavers are former draft picks of other NFL teams so Shavers might be the most intriguing as an untapped potential guy but he did get hands on (and should have caught) the ball what went for a pick 6. Essentially I think that there might still be a battle on for the Bills' 6th receiver spot. 

 

 

Bad Night for...

 

Kyle Allen - Wow he was bad. Allen made a couple of nice throws but generally he just looked so uncomfortable back there. It looked like a guy who doesn't understand the offense, doesn't understand his reads and has no feel for the position. His feet were never settled, he was constantly moving even in pretty good pockets and twice he actually moved himself into pressure when if he stayed where he was and kept his eyes downfield he had oodles of time to make a throw. He played frenzied like a guy for whom it was all happening too quickly. The interception was mainly on him. Sure, Shavers should have caught it, but he threw a 5 yard receiver screen 3 yards off target. How the ***** is that possible? He was horrible. Not helped by the fact that as soon as Barkley stepped in he immediately looked comfortable, was just dropping back, executing reads and getting the ball out of his hands. Okay Allen played against starters and 2nd teamers; Barkley played against 2nd teamers and 3rd teamers but Allen was 8/15 with an INT and Barkley was 14/15 with 2 TDs. At the moment Kyle Allen is the 3rd best Quarterback on the roster.

 

Kaiir Elam - Not so much that Elam was awful, he wasn't. He got called on one defensive PI that I thought was a little ticky tacky. There was a little grab and by the letter of course that is a penalty, but he left go before the ball arrived and in pre-season not sure that needed to be called. But Dane Jackson got the start and in his 1 series had an interception. They then brought Elam in for the second series with the 1s and while I think that means the competition is still live (contrast their approach at MLB and RG the other two big competition spots in camp) the fact that Elam then stayed on the field throughout the 2s run suggests to me that it is a competition he is behind in. They never switched Jackson back in which says to me they are happy they know what they have there. Unless Elam starts next week I think we can start to call time on this competition. 

 

Ike Boettger - Man that was a tough watch. I have been an Ike guy since the Bills picked him up as an UDFA out of Iowa back in 2018. He was a classic Iowa lineman, tough and well coached technically even if he lacked the physical attributes to stand out. And in 2020 (in particular) he played really well for the Bills as a starter for much of the year. He was then a serviceable backup in 2021 before breaking his ankle late in the year. And while he played a handful of snaps at the end of the blow out in Chicago last year this was his first proper run since and he just does not look the same guy. He could barely move out there, didn't seem to have any confidence pushing off the ankle at all and was beaten on multiple plays. Maybe it was just a bad night, but it does kinda reflect what we have heard from camp. I suspect he is going to be a painful cut for the organisation when the time comes. I am told he is a really popular guy in the locker room. 

 

Jace Sternberger - It was really interesting to note that the Bills ran a TON of 12 personnel with the 1st team offense and the 2nd team offense last night. Again once the full game replay is up I'll try and go back and count but I reckon it was something like 60% of their snaps with the first two units. Kincaid and Knox were out there together and the Quintin Morris and Joel Wilson were the combo for the second unit. That means Sternberger is 5th of 5 on the depth chart and when he got his shot he caught a nice pass, and immediately had it knocked out for a fumble. I was excited about his addition given his USFL success and the fact I liked him coming out of Texas A&M in that same draft as Knox. But he faces a major uphill battle to make the team now and even the PS doesn't seem a guarantee. 

 

The Linebacker Shuffle - As expected Tyrel Dodson got the start at MLB. He did okay in the run game, was in on a couple of tackles, but he didn't inspire much confidence with his zone drops against the pass. He looked a bit like what he is. A backup level player who isn't a liability out there but is noticeably not at the level of much of the supporting cast. He was at least calling the defense when he was out there by the looks of it. He played through with the second unit as well with Dorian Williams who flashed his closing speed and coverage ability in the pass game but also showed with his run fits and taking on of blocks exactly why the Bills have quickly ruled him out of the conversation at MIKE. AJ Klein was the next man through after Dodson and again, looked what he is... an older less athletic guy who is okay moving vertically but struggles moving laterally. At the moment both options in the middle look like compromises. Braylon Spector got some late run with the 3s but was erratic in his play and if he makes this roster he makes it for special teams only. It might have been a good night for Terrel Bernard by virtue of him not playing. 

 

 

Fire away guys.... thoughts, comments, questions always welcome. I will be back with another of these after pre-season game 2!!

 

I didn’t watch the game so appreciate the write up. I always trust your opinions. 

[BillsFan130]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Tell Josh Allen he is QB and backup OC. Leave the GMing to someone else.

Like I said though- The most important part for the backup QB is to help the starter prepare through the week and on game day. 

 

They are basically like coaches.

 

If it helps him prepare better and Josh is comfortable with those guys helping him, why mess with that?

 

 

Edited August 13, 2023 by BillsFan130

[Beck Water]

23 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

On Bates, yea I did acknowledge there isna chance they go back to that next week but I am not sure. I think then your rookie guard goes out and plays like that you are well advised not to worry about how your average previous starter looks or feels. I'd start Cyrus again next week with Josh behind him and I am only taking him off the field for Bates if he struggles. I think the signs are pointing towards Torrence being the starter.

 

Like I said, you seem very confident in your ability to evaluate OL play based on television broadcast.  McDermott, in his interview, seemed much more guarded (Ha!) and as though he would want to watch film and evaluate before coming to a conclusion.  I'm not convinced (personally) that Torrence in pass pro was All That and a Bag of Chips.  McDermott doesn't sound convinced either.

 

23 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I thought McDermott sounded pissed with Kyle. Just listened to it an hour ago. For McD who gives you nothing those comments equate to positively seething. I don't really want Barkley as our #2 but at the moment I think they have to seriously allow him to compete for it. That likely means first in with the 2s next week. But they should do everything they can to explore alternatives this week. Work out who might end up on the street after cutdowns. Who might be tradeable....

 

I don't know about "pissed", but I'd certainly go with "critical".  McDermott made it pretty clear he thought the QB play in the first half was not good.

 

if you listen to McDermott's presser and then Kyle Allen's the contrast is .......Wow, "surreal" is the word that comes to mind.  It comes across to me as though they're in alternate universes or something, like "are we even talking about the same QB performance we just witnessed?"

 

As I said elsewhere, I doubt a team with a backup we might want is going to trade him to us right now.  They want to get closer to the regular season.  But Beane and his pro personnel scouts should definitely be scouring rosters.  Not just because it was a poor performance from Kyle Allen - but because Kyle Allen himself said he thought his performance was "smooth" and "overall he was pretty happy with it". 

[HappyDays]

59 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

Like I said, you seem very confident in your ability to evaluate OL play based on television broadcast.  McDermott, in his interview, seemed much more guarded (Ha!) and as though he would want to watch film and evaluate before coming to a conclusion.  I'm not convinced (personally) that Torrence in pass pro was All That and a Bag of Chips.  McDermott doesn't sound convinced either.

 

The other interpretation of this is that McDermott doesn't want to praise a rookie too much, to make sure he keeps working for it. He has sounded similarly guarded when talking about Kincaid. "He's done some nice things but still a long way to go." It's generic coach speak, I wouldn't read anything into it.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Trades don't count you are right, because in essence he takes that qualifying contract with him. Players being cut in camp has knocked them out of consideration in previous years though. Don't know if it still does (and the exact formula is not published by the league) but there was a year the Ravens looked like they were on for no picks by the projections all summer and then cut like 3 of their lower level FA signings at the end of camp and ended up with a pick. 

 

I think if you look at the Overthecap article that I linked, it is pretty clear.  Since the 2020 CBA, the criteria, if not the exact formula, has been pretty well publicized.

 

From the link:

Quote

It is important to note that only certain players qualify for the compensatory formula. Those are only players whose contracts expire. Players who are cut are the most common example of free agents ineligible to become CFAs, but other methods of disqualification, such as a Restricted Free Agent not given a tender, also exist. In its most general sense, players only become Compensatory Free Agents if they are free to leave their old team against that team’s will.

 

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

The other interpretation of this is that McDermott doesn't want to praise a rookie too much, to make sure he keeps working for it. He has sounded similarly guarded when talking about Kincaid. "He's done some nice things but still a long way to go." It's generic coach speak, I wouldn't read anything into it.

 

That's a very fair point, but that wasn't exactly the trend of what McDermott said this time.

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I think if you look at the Overthecap article that I linked, it is pretty clear.  Since the 2020 CBA, the criteria, if not the exact formula, has been pretty well publicised.

 

No you misunderstand me. It is very clear signing cut players doesn't count.... what is less clear is if a player who signs a contract which, at the end of the qualifying period, is considered a qualifying contract is then cut without playing on that contract - so like if Keenum is cut when the Texans cut to 53.... does he still count against the formula? There was definitely a year either 2019 or 2020 when the Ravens cut a qualifying player (or two) at the end of camp and brought themselves back into the black so far as comp picks are concerned.

[Airseven]

1 hour ago, 0017 said:

Exactly what I thought when they called Elam for PI, that is a standard play for sauce, every play he grabs jersey. It’s sickening. 

There’s a difference between grabbing in physical man coverage and grabbing to regain position.

[Augie]

8 minutes ago, Airseven said:

There’s a difference between grabbing in physical man coverage and grabbing to regain position.

 

Which one did the Chiefs do to us in the playoffs? That was pretty effective, if they let you do it.   

 

Bitter? Who, me???

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Airseven said:

There’s a difference between grabbing in physical man coverage and grabbing to regain position.

 

Agreed but that penalty yesterday was the former. I don't think it affected position at all.

[Freddie's Dead]

5 hours ago, Prospector said:

See what happens, you use the wrong “they’re” and then it catches on and Shaw66 uses the same wrong “they’re” right after you. I had to reread both a couple times to make sense of it. They’re using their wrong there’s. 

 

How do you comfort a grammar Nazi?  There, their, they're....