Good Night / Bad Night - Pre-season game 1

[Warcodered]

Shakir actually had a pretty good night 1 bad drop obviously that triggered our PTSD but he made some tougher catches and picked up a great block on that Kyle Allen scramble.

[BillsFan130]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If I was me and I was Brandon Beane I'd work the phones immediately trying to upgrade at backup QB. I don't think you can look at that last night and say "yea, we're good."

The awkward part is Josh is super tight with Kyle Allen and Barkley, and a big role for the backup QB is to help the starter on game day and with preparation. (As I'm sure you know)

 

I am not saying you’re wrong as I do think QB2 is a liability if Josh ever goes down.

 

But I think Josh will have a big say for who he wants as the guy to help him get ready for game days, and Kyle and Barkley are his guys.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

The awkward part is Josh is super tight with Kyle Allen and Barkley, and a big role for the backup QB is to help the starter on game day and with preparation. (As I'm sure you know)

 

I am not saying you’re wrong as I do think QB2 is a liability if Josh ever goes down.

 

But I think Josh will have a big say for who he wants as the guy to help him get ready for game days, and Kyle and Barkley are his guys.

 

 

 

Tell Josh Allen he is QB and backup OC. Leave the GMing to someone else.

[BullBuchanan]

If Elam doesn't start this year, you have to consider the pick a catastrophic bust for the bills, regardless of how the player does. Not getting starting reps out of a 1st round DB is brutal

[BillsDad51]

Thanks for the write-up, Gunner. Appreciate it. I did see Spector stop an Indy run play stone dead on a 3rd and 1 (I think in 4th quarter.) On next play, Ingram blew up a run to turn the ball over on downs.

[BullBuchanan]

5 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

The awkward part is Josh is super tight with Kyle Allen and Barkley, and a big role for the backup QB is to help the starter on game day and with preparation. (As I'm sure you know)

 

I am not saying you’re wrong as I do think QB2 is a liability if Josh ever goes down.

 

But I think Josh will have a big say for who he wants as the guy to help him get ready for game days, and Kyle and Barkley are his guys.

 

 

Josh needs to level up his friend group then.

[Beck Water]

Nice write up as always, Gunner.

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

O'Cyrus Torrence - I think this competition is over guys. The job is won. O'Cyrus Torrence got the start at right guard after battling Ryan Bates in camp and he took every snap with the first team unit and then stayed in there for a couple of drives with the second team. Bates played exclusively as the second team center. And boy did he take the opportunity. He was a significant part of the Bills' early run game success. He moves people at the point of attack and while tougher tests will lie ahead in pass protection this was a really impressive first outing. Isn't impossible that the Bills revert to Bates at guard week 2, but I think it is trending strongly towards the rookie being the guy.

 

I don't know that I agree here.  I think the Bills def. wanted to get a good long look at Bates as backup C.  I saw something in an article about wanting to limit the snaps Ryan Bates had to play - which would have been A Lot if he played both G with the 1s and backup C with the 2s.  It was unclear if that was the author's take or something a coach said.  Also that Kromer wanted to see Torrence with both the 1s and 2s (written as though said by McDermott.

 

So I'm at "uncertain what that means" not at "Competition is over, job is won".   I'd go so far as to say Torrence is showing his value as a run blocker, but I'm less clear whether he's ready to rock in pass protection.  Jumping around to your "bad":

 

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Kyle Allen - Wow he was bad. Allen made a couple of nice throws but generally he just looked so uncomfortable back there. It looked like a guy who doesn't understand the offense, doesn't understand his reads and has no feel for the position. His feet were never settled, he was constantly moving even in pretty good pockets and twice he actually moved himself into pressure when if he stayed where he was and kept his eyes downfield he had oodles of time to make a throw. He played frenzied like a guy for whom it was all happening too quickly. The interception was mainly on him. Sure, Shavers should have caught it, but he threw a 5 yard receiver screen 3 yards off target. How the ***** is that possible? He was horrible. Not helped by the fact that as soon as Barkley stepped in he immediately looked comfortable, was just dropping back, executing reads and getting the ball out of his hands. Okay Allen played against starters and 2nd teamers; Barkley played against 2nd teamers and 3rd teamers but Allen was 8/15 with an INT and Barkley was 14/15 with 2 TDs. At the moment Kyle Allen is the 3rd best Quarterback on the roster

 

McDermott commented about Torrence "“When you’re talking about interior line play in particular, it’s hard to see with the naked eye out there, but good to see a young player get an opportunity,” McDermott said. “We’re trying to do that with some other young players as well. Now we go back and look at the film."

 

I know you're confident about your ability to evaluate players from TV broadcast, not even film - but canonically, when a QB isn't settled in what appears to be a perfectly good pocket, it can mean that from his viewpoint it isn't a perfectly good pocket.

So I provisionally give Kyle Allen a "pass" for some of the jitters - but nothing else.  He is not looking good.  worse, from the TBN article linked above:

Quote

“I thought it was smooth,” Allen said of his day. “We just wanted to execute, we wanted to put some plays together. I thought we had some good third-down conversions. We’d like to get the ball in the end zone more, but I mean, just overall I was pretty happy with it.”

 

If Kyle Allen can describe that performance as "smooth", use the word "execute" with it, and say "just overall I was pretty happy with it" - the problem isn't just that he's not looking smooth and in command, the problem is that he isn't recognizing where he is now vs. where he needs to be, he's got some 'Dunning-Kruger" going on.

Our head coach sounded less enthused by Allen's performance, talking about "open competition" and "hot and cold", then kind of describing "Matt getting the ball out, getting into the rhythm" as the "hot" part:

Quote

McDermott said after the game that he considers it an open competition to be Josh Allen’s backup. The Bills undoubtedly will want an answer to that question soon. “I thought it was kind of hot and cold at times,” McDermott said of his team’s quarterback play. “I thought we moved the ball at times, and then we stalled out. … In the second half, I felt it was a little bit better moving the ball on a more consistent basis. Matt getting the ball out, I thought we got into a good rhythm.”

I think Kyle Allen needs to listen to McDermott and take a memo, because being Josh's buddy didn't save Jacob Hollister from the cutting room floor, and Beane has made a point about an unknown player after the Texans playoff loss "it doesn't matter if you play golf and eat dinner with the coaches if you don't play well when your number is called"

 

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Boogie Basham - The one place where I think the Bills are guaranteed to cut someone who makes another NFL roster this season is defensive line. They have 5 proven vet tackles (Jones, Oliver, Phillips, Settle, Ford) and 6 proved vet edge players (Von, Groot, AJE, Floyd, Boogie and Shaq). I don't think they can keep 11. Shaq is the "easiest" cut of those but he has played a very specific role for the Bills in the past as an edge setting end and so I was leaning towards Boogie maybe being traded. But he was active yesterday, made a couple of nice run stops and had a sack. He hasn't flashed much in camp so it was a performance he needed.

 

So the Bills have Basham under contract for 2 more years at a moderate price.  He has a cap hit of $1.17M this season, with a dead cap of $0.74M if he's cut.  Lawson has a 1 year contract, $1.3M, $0.425 if he's cut but that's mostly guaranteed salary so the Bills may be off the hook for it if he signs elsewhere.  Capology says if the evaluation is similar, you cut Lawson and keep Basham.

 

Since the Bills have a great big roving question mark in the middle of their defense, you might think they want to go with the guy they can count on to set the edge.

 

I don't see how the Bills justify keeping even 10 DLmen, personally.  They *did* keep 10 in 2021, the year they drafted Basham and Rousseau, but the usual number is 9.  They would need to fit 10 into the roster at the expense of DB or LB...do they want to do that this year?

 

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Ryan Van Demark - The former UConn tackle came into the NFL as an UDFA of the Colts last year, but after being let go in final cuts declined an offer to join the Colts Practice Squad in order to join the Bills. After a year on the practice squad I have seen Astro's camp reports mention him a couple of times as a guy who has had some run with the 2nd team O Line in camp. Yesterday he was the left tackle on the 2nd line for the first drive that line was in. Then Quess replaced him but he came back as the left tackle of the 3rd line, switching to the right side when the luckless Tommy Doyle got hurt. It's fair to say tackle depth behind the starters is a question on this roster, but Van Demark looked good at both spots last night, and if there is a player who I would have told you a week ago had no shot at the 53 that I'm now seeing a path for - he is the guy!

 

I had mistakenly thought Van Demark actually was playing as the 3rd C during the Heatstroke Game in Miami.  I was incorrect, since he hasn't taken an NFL snap yet.  But, I'd rather see Van Demark in preseason to show us what he's got, than Quessenbery.  Wonder why he only got one drive with the 2's, though?  Unless it was "we want to see both you and Quessenberry with the same guys"?

 

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Ike Boettger - Man that was a tough watch. I have been an Ike guy since the Bills picked him up as an UDFA out of Iowa back in 2018. He was a classic Iowa lineman, tough and well coached technically even if he lacked the physical attributes to stand out. And in 2020 (in particular) he played really well for the Bills as a starter for much of the year. He was then a serviceable backup in 2021 before breaking his ankle late in the year. And while he played a handful of snaps at the end of the blow out in Chicago last year this was his first proper run since and he just does not look the same guy. He could barely move out there, didn't seem to have any confidence pushing off the ankle at all and was beaten on multiple plays. Maybe it was just a bad night, but it does kinda reflect what we have heard from camp. I suspect he is going to be a painful cut for the organisation when the time comes. I am told he is a really popular guy in the locker room.

 

I reluctantly have to agree with you.  Minor correction on the "breaking his ankle" - it was a torn Achilles.  One study suggests that ~1/3 of players who have torn Achilles do not return to play.and those who do have on average, a 50% reduction in power rating.  A 50% reduction in power rating for an OLman is not good, and it may be more.  They didn't cite OLmen specifically but:

Quote

There was a 95%, 87%, and 64% postinjury reduction in power ratings for linebackers, cornerbacks, and defensive tackles over a 3-year period. On average, players experienced a greater than 50% reduction in their power ratings following such an injury. Thirty-two percent (n = 10) of NFL players who sustained an Achilles tendon rupture did not return to play in the NFL.

 

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Jace Sternberger - It was really interesting to note that the Bills ran a TON of 12 personnel with the 1st team offense and the 2nd team offense last night. Again once the full game replay is up I'll try and go back and count but I reckon it was something like 60% of their snaps with the first two units. Kincaid and Knox were out there together and the Quintin Morris and Joel Wilson were the combo for the second unit. That means Sternberger is 5th of 5 on the depth chart and when he got his shot he caught a nice pass, and immediately had it knocked out for a fumble. I was excited about his addition given his USFL success and the fact I liked him coming out of Texas A&M in that same draft as Knox. But he faces a major uphill battle to make the team now and even the PS doesn't seem a guarantee.

 

I said before the season, and to some folks who put out early takes on a 53 man roster, don't sleep on Quintin Morris

 

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Shakir actually had a pretty good night 1 bad drop obviously that triggered our PTSD but he made some tougher catches and picked up a great block on that Kyle Allen scramble.

 

The problem is that that "1 bad drop" has been who he is as a player since Boise State. You can't have a double digit drop percentage and be successful in this league, not unless you are the elite of the elite in some other skill. Shakir is a pretty good route runner, he's pretty good with the ball in the hands, but he has below average physical abilities and abysmal hands (relative to the league standard). If we take away the draft hype around him, that is the profile of a player that should be firmly on the roster bubble.

[Rocky Landing]

Regarding the running backs, I have not at any point understood how Harris would be considered an upgrade to Singletary. Their stats in the last few seasons have been very, very similar, with Harris running with the Patriots*, and a better O-line, and Motor in our spread offense. But, of course, the biggest issue with Harris has been his durability, and that has already reared its ugly head. With Cook as the every-down back, and Murray as the downhill power back (that we've beed missing for so long), why waste a roster spot on a RB that can't stay on the field? Mimms showed real developmental potential, and Evans had a nice return, and whoever ends up our third RB should certainly be a ST player as well. 

[Steptide]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The problem is that that "1 bad drop" has been who he is as a player since Boise State. You can't have a double digit drop percentage and be successful in this league, not unless you are the elite of the elite in some other skill. Shakir is a pretty good route runner, he's pretty good with the ball in the hands, but he has below average physical abilities and abysmal hands (relative to the league standard). If we take away the draft hype around him, that is the profile of a player that should be firmly on the roster bubble.

Shakir is our new zay Jones. Just give him like 5 years and he'll figure it out 😅

[Rocky Landing]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The problem is that that "1 bad drop" has been who he is as a player since Boise State. You can't have a double digit drop percentage and be successful in this league, not unless you are the elite of the elite in some other skill. Shakir is a pretty good route runner, he's pretty good with the ball in the hands, but he has below average physical abilities and abysmal hands (relative to the league standard). If we take away the draft hype around him, that is the profile of a player that should be firmly on the roster bubble.

In his defense (weirdly), the fact that his terrible drop was on what should have been an easy reception, in a game in which he made some very difficult catches, might lead one to believe that his drop issues could be corrected? Very similar to Knox's early career issues, right?

[Beck Water]

25 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

Player for player trade.  What’s the harm I trying? Maybe Houston wants something we’re likely to cut, anyway.  
 

I saw Keenum mentioned upthread.  Hypothetically speaking I wonder what effect, if any, trading for him would have on comp formula.  I’ve never thought of a scenario like that before.  

 

Trading a player has no effect on the comp formula.  The comp formula strictly involves FA

https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks

 

I don't think Houston will have any interest in trading Keenum.  If any QB is available, it might be Davis Mills, but I think Houston will keep 3 QB: CJ Stroud as the promising rookie, Davis Mills as the vet who has shown he can play somewhat, and Case Keenum as the wily veteran mentor.
 

And this isn't for you, but with injuries etc no team is going to be trading us a QB in pre-season.  They will wait until they're heading into the season healthy.

7 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

In his defense (weirdly), the fact that his terrible drop was on what should have been an easy reception, in a game in which he made some very difficult catches, might lead one to believe that his drop issues could be corrected? Very similar to Knox's early career issues, right?

 

Maybe.  But then he needed to be spending part of his off-season making a project out of that, as Knox did.

[Rocky Landing]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Ryan Van Demark - The former UConn tackle came into the NFL as an UDFA of the Colts last year, but after being let go in final cuts declined an offer to join the Colts Practice Squad in order to join the Bills. After a year on the practice squad I have seen Astro's camp reports mention him a couple of times as a guy who has had some run with the 2nd team O Line in camp. Yesterday he was the left tackle on the 2nd line for the first drive that line was in. Then Quess replaced him but he came back as the left tackle of the 3rd line, switching to the right side when the luckless Tommy Doyle got hurt. It's fair to say tackle depth behind the starters is a question on this roster, but Van Demark looked good at both spots last night, and if there is a player who I would have told you a week ago had no shot at the 53 that I'm now seeing a path for - he is the guy!

 

I don't really follow enough teams in the NFL to say this with absolute certainty, but it strikes me that there is a real shortage of quality O-linemen in the league at the moment-- especially compared to the number of quality D-linemen. There's a lot of handwringing on this forum about the quality of our O-line depth, but is there a team in the league without that problem? In fact, there are numerous teams who don't have a quality starting RT. In fact, there are numerous teams that have issues at starting LT. 

 

I know it's only preseason, and I am an unapologetic homer, but yesterday left me feeling pretty good about the O-line.

[HappyDays]

12 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

In his defense (weirdly), the fact that his terrible drop was on what should have been an easy reception, in a game in which he made some very difficult catches, might lead one to believe that his drop issues could be corrected? Very similar to Knox's early career issues, right?

 

Sure, I believe catching is something that anybody can get better at, although some are just naturally more or less gifted. But there has been zero progression there from Shakir. It was an issue in college, he had 2 drops on 20 targets in the regular season last year, he had an awful momentum-shifting drop against the Dolphins in the wildcard round, he reportedly has struggled with drops at camp this year, and now he had 1 drop on 3 targets yesterday. Shakir is a 5th rounder with a limited physical skill set. Players like that don't get years to turn it around. The only reason he gets any hype at all from Bills fans is because he was projected to be drafted higher than we got him so the perception is that we got a steal. Instead, we are seeing why teams were lower on him than the amateur draft community.

 

Ideally for a starting slot player you want Mr. Reliable. That's what Beasley was for us before his athleticism fell off a cliff. If not Mr. Reliable, you want someone that is extremely explosive. That's what Harty will hopefully be for us. Shakir as of right now is neither of those. He's just a replacement level slot player the likes of which can be found on the waiver wire every year.

[Rocky Landing]

5 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

 

Maybe.  But then he needed to be spending part of his off-season making a project out of that, as Knox did.

If I recall correctly (I might not be), wasn't it Knox's second offseason that he hired the eye-hand coordination specialist, and spent the bulk of his offseason working on those issues?

[GunnerBill]

32 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

Nice write up as always, Gunner.

 

I don't know that I agree here.  I think the Bills def. wanted to get a good long look at Bates as backup C.  I saw something in an article about wanting to limit the snaps Ryan Bates had to play - which would have been A Lot if he played both G with the 1s and backup C with the 2s.  It was unclear if that was the author's take or something a coach said.  Also that Kromer wanted to see Torrence with both the 1s and 2s (written as though said by McDermott.

 

So I'm at "uncertain what that means" not at "Competition is over, job is won".   I'd go so far as to say Torrence is showing his value as a run blocker, but I'm less clear whether he's ready to rock in pass protection.  Jumping around to your "bad":

 

 

McDermott commented about Torrence "“When you’re talking about interior line play in particular, it’s hard to see with the naked eye out there, but good to see a young player get an opportunity,” McDermott said. “We’re trying to do that with some other young players as well. Now we go back and look at the film."

 

I know you're confident about your ability to evaluate players from TV broadcast, not even film - but canonically, when a QB isn't settled in what appears to be a perfectly good pocket, it can mean that from his viewpoint it isn't a perfectly good pocket.

So I provisionally give Kyle Allen a "pass" for some of the jitters - but nothing else.  He is not looking good.  worse, from the TBN article linked above:

 

If Kyle Allen can describe that performance as "smooth", use the word "execute" with it, and say "just overall I was pretty happy with it" - the problem isn't just that he's not looking smooth and in command, the problem is that he isn't recognizing where he is now vs. where he needs to be, he's got some 'Dunning-Kruger" going on.

Our head coach sounded less enthused by Allen's performance, talking about "open competition" and "hot and cold", then kind of describing "Matt getting the ball out, getting into the rhythm" as the "hot" part:

I think Kyle Allen needs to listen to McDermott and take a memo, because being Josh's buddy didn't save Jacob Hollister from the cutting room floor, and Beane has made a point about an unknown player after the Texans playoff loss "it doesn't matter if you play golf and eat dinner with the coaches if you don't play well when your number is called"

 

 

So the Bills have Basham under contract for 2 more years at a moderate price.  He has a cap hit of $1.17M this season, with a dead cap of $0.74M if he's cut.  Lawson has a 1 year contract, $1.3M, $0.425 if he's cut but that's mostly guaranteed salary so the Bills may be off the hook for it if he signs elsewhere.  Capology says if the evaluation is similar, you cut Lawson and keep Basham.

 

Since the Bills have a great big roving question mark in the middle of their defense, you might think they want to go with the guy they can count on to set the edge.

 

I don't see how the Bills justify keeping even 10 DLmen, personally.  They *did* keep 10 in 2021, the year they drafted Basham and Rousseau, but the usual number is 9.  They would need to fit 10 into the roster at the expense of DB or LB...do they want to do that this year?

 

 

I had mistakenly thought Van Demark actually was playing as the 3rd C during the Heatstroke Game in Miami.  I was incorrect, since he hasn't taken an NFL snap yet.  But, I'd rather see Van Demark in preseason to show us what he's got, than Quessenbery.  Wonder why he only got one drive with the 2's, though?  Unless it was "we want to see both you and Quessenberry with the same guys"?

 

 

I reluctantly have to agree with you.  Minor correction on the "breaking his ankle" - it was a torn Achilles.  One study suggests that ~1/3 of players who have torn Achilles do not return to play.and those who do have on average, a 50% reduction in power rating.  A 50% reduction in power rating for an OLman is not good, and it may be more.  They didn't cite OLmen specifically but:

 

 

I said before the season, and to some folks who put out early takes on a 53 man roster, don't sleep on Quintin Morris

 

 

Appreciate the correction on Boettger. You are of course right. Achillies not ankle. My bad. 

 

On Bates, yea I did acknowledge there isna chance they go back to that next week but I am not sure. I think then your rookie guard goes out and plays like that you are well advised not to worry about how your average previous starter looks or feels. I'd start Cyrus again next week with Josh behind him and I am only taking him off the field for Bates if he struggles. I think the signs are pointing towards Torrence being the starter.

 

On Van Demark getting one series with the 2s then them putting Quess in... I wonder that too. Could be something as silly as Quess wasn't ready to go when the 2s got called or there was a miscommunication. That stuff does sometimes happen in pre-season!

 

Agree on Boogie v Shaq. And you might get Shaq on the PS. You wouldn't get Boogie. If the evaluation is at all similar you keep the higher ceiling younger guy. I do expect them to keep 10 DL though. 

 

I thought McDermott sounded pissed with Kyle. Just listened to it an hour ago. For McD who gives you nothing those comments equate to positively seething. I don't really want Barkley as our #2 but at the moment I think they have to seriously allow him to compete for it. That likely means first in with the 2s next week. But they should do everything they can to explore alternatives this week. Work out who might end up on the street after cutdowns. Who might be tradeable....

 

 

[Beck Water]

33 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

The awkward part is Josh is super tight with Kyle Allen and Barkley, and a big role for the backup QB is to help the starter on game day and with preparation. (As I'm sure you know)

 

Barkley has been in this offense for years and knows it thoroughly.

 

If Kyle Allen hasn't been able to absorb the offense in the last 5 months to be able to figure out where he should go with the ball in a preseason game where the defense probably isn't scheming for you, has he really absorbed it enough to be able to be helpful with preparation in the QB room and on game day?

 

The other aspect of Kyle Allen is that his fiancee', Summer Juraszek, is 'super tight' with Brittany Williams.  From how the latter has posted a bit on Insta/Tiktok indicating a bit of a bone to pick vs. 'just didn't work out, we wanted different things on a different timeline', might be Awkward...

[SectionC3]

Just now, Beck Water said:

 

Barkley has been in this offense for years and knows it thoroughly.

 

If Kyle Allen hasn't been able to absorb the offense in the last 5 months to be able to figure out where he should go with the ball in a preseason game where the defense probably isn't scheming for you, has he really absorbed it enough to be able to be helpful with preparation in the QB room and on game day?

 

The other aspect of Kyle Allen is that his fiancee', Summer Juraszek, is 'super tight' with Brittany Williams.  From how the latter has posted a bit on Insta/Tiktok indicating a bit of a bone to pick vs. 'just didn't work out, we wanted different things on a different timeline', might be Awkward...

Read between the lines: I would be stunned if anyone in the organization wants the latter anywhere near Buffalo during football season.  And not because she's a good distraction. 

[GunnerBill]

38 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

If Elam doesn't start this year, you have to consider the pick a catastrophic bust for the bills, regardless of how the player does. Not getting starting reps out of a 1st round DB is brutal

 

They got starting reps last year and will again. But I agree that platooning starter in year 2 isn't what you want from a 1st rounder. I do think ultimately that pick is the one where there felt most disconnect between McD and Beane. Cos he is the guy they drafted. It is not like he is Zay Jones who was a terrific catcher in college and got the dropsies in the NFL. Elam is who he was. If they don't like that then why the hell did they draft him in the 1st round?

[balln]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They got starting reps last year and will again. But I agree that platooning starter in year 2 isn't what you want from a 1st rounder. I do think ultimately that pick is the one where there felt most disconnect between McD and Beane. Cos he is the guy they drafted. It is not like he is Zay Jones who was a terrific catcher in college and got the dropsies in the NFL. Elam is who he was. If they don't like that then why the hell did they draft him in the 1st round?

Cuz he takes notes and has a notebook