Who else is in the let’s get Gabe Davis signed to an extension camp?

[FireChans]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Why is that? Everyone is going nuts over Gabe's camp. Sherfield by all reports has also been really good.

 

If I had my choice, I would sign Gabe to a long term deal right now somewhere in the $10-$15m range. I bet his agent is seeking north of that, though.

 

I know you enjoy trolling me, which is fine. That said, Sherfield isn't a scrub. Harty isn't a scrub. And dare I bring up the fact that Isabella has been impressing a lot of people in camp... and not just as a KR/PR...?

 

Keep Gabe if we can. But Gabe isn't one of the irreplaceable pieces of this offense.

Because it makes no sense. As a cap strapped team, why would you sign Gabe to a large contract if there’s not much drop off between him and a guy who is on the vet minimum?

 

The reasons to sign Gabe to a 4 year, $60M deal now would not include “Sherfield is almost as good and we don’t really need Gabe.”

[BarleyNY]

On 8/10/2023 at 9:30 PM, Solomon Grundy said:

I'd rather talk what will it take to get Marvin Harrison Jr😎

It would mean trading into the top 5 picks of the draft. Nearly impossible unless something catastrophic happens. 

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, Eastport bills said:

Gabe is about to become elite and his production the last three post seasons is enough proof to do everything possible to sign him before he hits FA. The value of getting your own draft pick on the cheap is huge. You know the guy’s work ethic, character and desire to be a Bill, along with his relationship and trust factor with Josh. Any time a GM wants to sign a player they can find the money and structure the deal to make it doable.

define on the cheap. 
 

I swear these threads should come with a requirement to include numbers if making claims 

[Einstein's Dog]

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Because it makes no sense. As a cap strapped team, why would you sign Gabe to a large contract if there’s not much drop off between him and a guy who is on the vet minimum?

 

The reasons to sign Gabe to a 4 year, $60M deal now would not include “Sherfield is almost as good and we don’t really need Gabe.”

I agree, the idea of giving Gabe $15M per season seems outrageous.  That's more than DHop got. 

 

If you are signing Gabe early, like now, the FO would be doing so to get a discount.  A perceived discount to what he would get when hitting FA, so around $8M - $10M.  I wouldn't do it if I were the GM.

 

Personally, I am still holding out hope that the FO will pick up a WR2 before the trade deadline.  Move Gabe back to where he is a stellar Wr3 and let him hit FA next year and hopefully get a compensatory pick after another team signs him to a contract.

[NoSaint]

Just now, Einstein's Dog said:

I agree, the idea of giving Gabe $15M per season seems outrageous.  That's more than DHop got. 

 

If you are signing Gabe early, like now, the FO would be doing so to get a discount.  A perceived discount to what he would get when hitting FA, so around $8M - $10M.  I wouldn't do it if I were the GM.

 

Personally, I am still holding out hope that the FO will pick up a WR2 before the trade deadline.  Move Gabe back to where he is a stellar Wr3 and let him hit FA next year and hopefully get a compensatory pick after another team signs him to a contract.

even now the “discount” is largely giving him a 10m raise this year to get him 2m cheaper the next 5, right? 
 

by the time you do the math on hometown discounts it’s usually just having the extra year of the rookie deal baked in vs just straight free agency 

[BarleyNY]

9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Why is that? Everyone is going nuts over Gabe's camp. Sherfield by all reports has also been really good.

 

If I had my choice, I would sign Gabe to a long term deal right now somewhere in the $10-$15m range. I bet his agent is seeking north of that, though.

 

I know you enjoy trolling me, which is fine. That said, Sherfield isn't a scrub. Harty isn't a scrub. And dare I bring up the fact that Isabella has been impressing a lot of people in camp... and not just as a KR/PR...?

 

Keep Gabe if we can. But Gabe isn't one of the irreplaceable pieces of this offense.

 

Currently there’s not a reasonable way to fit a 4/$40M to 4/$60M contract under the Bills cap. So it’s pretty much a moot point. But it is worth having a conversation about what Davis’ value is to the Bills specifically and what his MV is generally. I agree that the $10M-$15M AAV range on a 4 or 5 year deal is right for him. 

 

I don’t see how it’s the right fit for the Bills though. Not long term at least. Diggs turns 30 this season and is signed through 2027 on a contract paying him $24M AAV. IMO also paying $12M (or so) AAV for Davis would be tough given his limitations as a WR. I would rather the Bills use their draft resources to find a future #1 WR who can take over for Diggs when he retires. They can easily coexist while the draftee is on his rookie deal.

 

A possible middle ground is if the Bills do sign Davis to a contract they can get out of in two seasons. They can probably squeeze that into the cap and use the time to draft their next #1. I hoped they’d do that and get their next guy this season (JSN), but no dice. 

[Einstein's Dog]

3 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

even now the “discount” is largely giving him a 10m raise this year to get him 2m cheaper the next 5, right? 
 

by the time you do the math on hometown discounts it’s usually just having the extra year of the rookie deal baked in vs just straight free agency 

Often times the "discount" is you're giving the current market rate to rising prospect before they hit the open market.  The player is amenable to doing it because they get big guaranteed money a year early.  I would expect to see this type of bargaining to take place with Groot.

 

As for Gabe, I would like the FO to consider other options for WR2 in the $10-$12M range.

[BarleyNY]

2 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Often times the "discount" is you're giving the current market rate to rising prospect before they hit the open market.  The player is amenable to doing it because they get big guaranteed money a year early.  I would expect to see this type of bargaining to take place with Groot.

 

As for Gabe, I would like the FO to consider other options for WR2 in the $10-$12M range.

 

Yup. The real issue is what $10M - $12M AAV gets you in the WR market. Spotrac WR AAV  Michael Gallup, Allen Lazard, Jacobi Meyers and the like. Next offseason it’ll be $12M+ for the likes of Gabe Davis, Donovan Peoples-Jones, etc. It might be better to go the trade route or draft one high and look at some cheaper options to hold the fort. Not a lot of great options readily available. 

[Einstein's Dog]

2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Yup. The real issue is what $10M - $12M AAV gets you in the WR market. Spotrac WR AAV  Michael Gallup, Allen Lazard, Jacobi Meyers and the like. Next offseason it’ll be $12M+ for the likes of Gabe Davis, Donovan Peoples-Jones, etc. It might be better to go the trade route or draft one high and look at some cheaper options to hold the fort. Not a lot of great options readily available. 

I'm hoping the FO is interested in the in-season trade candidates, such as:  

 

Mike Evans - Tampa should stink.  Their WR group is expensive and they will probably want draft capital for a run at a QB.  Evans is on the last year of his contract, and they could pick up his $13M a third of the way through and send Tampa the Edmunds third we have.

Tyler Lockett - Seattle will probably suck and like Tampa above would want draft capital.  Seattle also has a lot invested in WR and may want to move Tyler.

J Jeudy/C Sutton - there had been rumors.  Probably harder now that T Patrick already had his year ending injury.

M Thomas - probably a long shot in that N Orleans should win the division, but if things go badly for them.

 

Honorable mentions:  H Renfro (but I don't really want a slot), A Thielen (maybe too old and just signed this yr), C Samuel (don't know how good he is).

[FireChans]

30 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I'm hoping the FO is interested in the in-season trade candidates, such as:  

 

Mike Evans - Tampa should stink.  Their WR group is expensive and they will probably want draft capital for a run at a QB.  Evans is on the last year of his contract, and they could pick up his $13M a third of the way through and send Tampa the Edmunds third we have.

Tyler Lockett - Seattle will probably suck and like Tampa above would want draft capital.  Seattle also has a lot invested in WR and may want to move Tyler.

J Jeudy/C Sutton - there had been rumors.  Probably harder now that T Patrick already had his year ending injury.

M Thomas - probably a long shot in that N Orleans should win the division, but if things go badly for them.

 

Honorable mentions:  H Renfro (but I don't really want a slot), A Thielen (maybe too old and just signed this yr), C Samuel (don't know how good he is).

We don't have the Edmunds third yet I don't think. It's awarded after the season.

[Shaw66]

I'm a Gabe Davis fan.  I think he's a solid #2 receiver.   He'll never be a #1 in a good passing game.  I think the Bills should let him play out his contract and test the market.   If his stock is low, the Bills might resign him.  Otherwise, let him go. 

 

Beane signs guys off their rookie contracts when he thinks the guy is a key long-term building block.  I don't think that's what Davis.   Your #2 receiver is only a long-term building block if he's going to replace your #1, and Davis isn't replacing Diggs.  Assuming Kincaid works out, Davis will be at best the third option in the passing game, and that just isn't worth a lot of money. 

 

I think, other than your stars, you have to keep turning over your skill position players.   I think Beane's done it right at running back.   Year after year he's looking for serviceable guys, and he keeps finding them.  He got a few good years out of Singletary, he's looking for a few years from Cook, and he has pretty good backups.  Same at receiver.   You have a parade of guys coming through and fit them into your offense as it continues to evolve.  I think the Bills should be planning on a first or second round wideout in the draft, coach him up to fit into the #2 role.  If he turns out to be good, he's the replacement for Diggs when the time comes.   If he isn't that good, he's still good enough to inflict pain on defenses as the second or third option in the offense. 

 

I think it's a dynamic league.  It keeps changing, everyone keeps adapting.   When you keep good but not great players, it tends to make your team stagnate, and you can't afford to stagnate; you have to keep changing. 

 

The Bills already have plenty of keepers:   Hyde, Poyer, White, Miller, Oliver, probably Rousseau, Dawkins, Allen, Diggs.  Potential keepers in Torrence, Kincaid, Cook.   You can't pay everyone.  As the current keepers age out, you'll have more money to pay new keepers, but your #2 receiver is only a keeper if he's going to become you're #1.   That isn't Davis.  

[NoSaint]

21 minutes ago, FireChans said:

We don't have the Edmunds third yet I don't think. It's awarded after the season.

though you could send our existing and figure it’s about 5 picks apart hopefully. 
 

that said, not racing to trade this year.

 

I’d be quite alright with letting Gabe walk, drafting a guy 1-2 and considering a mid tier or aging vet for a short deal as insurance against the draft option not working out right 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, NoSaint said:

though you could send our existing and figure it’s about 5 picks apart hopefully. 
 

that said, not racing to trade this year.

 

I’d be quite alright with letting Gabe walk, drafting a guy 1-2 and considering a mid tier or aging vet for a short deal as insurance against the draft option not working out right 

IMO, the time to draft that guy to replace that Gabe was this year. I don't like relying on a rookie for high-level contributions, especially when we are gonna be picking late every year.  I understand it's not easy to do and fit the value/need equation, but the Bills are often a little late in this regard.

[C.Biscuit97]

This is basically the only chance we have to resign him. If he has a good season, he will cost too much. If he struggles, he will be cheaper but do we want him back then? 
 

I think we expected way too much from him last year and he still had some good moments. Not sure if he is a legit number 2 but I think he will have a good year this year and would love a price is right contract now. 
 

 

Just now, FireChans said:

IMO, the time to draft that guy to replace that Gabe was this year. I don't like relying on a rookie for high-level contributions, especially when we are gonna be picking late every year.  I understand it's not easy to do and fit the value/need equation, but the Bills are often a little late in this regard.

The Bills should have been drafting Diggs’ replacement as well. They need to just constantly draft guys so they can get young, cheap guys to grow with Allen. The Chiefs are constantly bringing in young receiver and letting the old expensive vets go.

[Eastport bills]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

define on the cheap. 
 

I swear these threads should come with a requirement to include numbers if making claims 

17 or 18 with incentives making it worth 20 if he meets thresholds. That’s Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore territory but Gabe’s much younger.

[NoSaint]

19 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

This is basically the only chance we have to resign him. If he has a good season, he will cost too much. If he struggles, he will be cheaper but do we want him back then? 
 

I think we expected way too much from him last year and he still had some good moments. Not sure if he is a legit number 2 but I think he will have a good year this year and would love a price is right contract now. 
 

 

The Bills should have been drafting Diggs’ replacement as well. They need to just constantly draft guys so they can get young, cheap guys to grow with Allen. The Chiefs are constantly bringing in young receiver and letting the old expensive vets go.

As expensive as receivers are, I’d be drafting a ton of them too. 

7 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

17 or 18 with incentives making it worth 20 if he meets thresholds. That’s Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore territory but Gabe’s much younger.

I think Gabe would eagerly sign that today. I think the OP was thinking like half that. @John from Riverside?

 

i think it makes little to no sense for the bills roster construction 

Edited August 12, 2023 by NoSaint

[Eastport bills]

6 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

As expensive as receivers are, I’d be drafting a ton of them too. 

I think Gabe would eagerly sign that today. I think the OP was thinking like half that. @John from Riverside?

 

i think it makes little to no sense for the bills roster construction 

Why do you think our options are better if he walks? A late 2nd rd draft choice or worse who takes 2 or 3 seasons to produce at Gabe’s level or a 2nd tier FA who gets close to the money I called for and has been inconsistent or injury riddled enough to be passed over by his previous team. I think Gabe’s a legitimate #2 for our team going forward, and these receivers get 15 to 20. The cap will be going up and this position group is right behind QBs.

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

IMO, the time to draft that guy to replace that Gabe was this year. I don't like relying on a rookie for high-level contributions, especially when we are gonna be picking late every year.  I understand it's not easy to do and fit the value/need equation, but the Bills are often a little late in this regard.

They did.

 

Shorter is Gabes replacement 

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

They did.

 

Shorter is Gabes replacement 

Okay let me rephrase.

 

The time to draft a non-lottery ticket replacement for Gabe Davis was this year.

 

Expecting fifth round players to start on a Superbowl team is a bad strategy.

[Jay_Fixit]

I hope he has a massive season. Then Buffalo tags him and some team trades for him a La Peerless Price and they’ll realize dude was just standing on the shoulders of others.

 

Then I’ll sit back, light up a cigar and say, that’s right. While I look over my kingdom. Of idiots.