Who else is in the let’s get Gabe Davis signed to an extension camp?

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, DapperCam said:

Bills have a top-3 QB in the league, and should have a top-5 offense in the league (they have the past 3 years). It isn’t really fair to compare Davis to WR #2 on other teams. His stats should be better based on the offense that he’s in. Other WRs have Sam Howell and Zach Wilson throwing to them.

 

The only question you should ask, is if another WR were given the same reps in the Bills offense at Davis’ spot, would they perform better.

 

I think a lot of WRs would perform better, and it’s an obvious opportunity to upgrade.

I agree.  And the question for most of us has now become when does the FO do the upgrade?  Do they wait until next season or pull the trigger in-season.

 

My hope has been the plan for some time (since missing out on OBJ and DHop) is to acquire a veteran in-season.  They may have kept an outside hope that Gabe would rise to the occasion, but realized the long shot odds of that (and it has not happened).

 

And just to be clear this does not mean you trade Gabe, he remains as WR3.  

[ColoradoBills]

Gabe has up and down games.  He needs a big one this Sunday.

[BADOLBILZ]

8 hours ago, Dopey said:

I'm sure @Alphadawg7 feels so much better knowing you think he has potential (whatever the hell that means 🤣). As for me, I have my opinions like you. We disagree on a lot and IMO, you're wrong as much, if not more than I am. Thanks for reading my input though.

 

Consider it constructive criticism.   The upside is that, regarding your football takes, there is nowhere to go but up for you.

 

I've given @Alphadawg7 credit for his improving process because I am objective.   That's all.  I don't care if he likes it or hates it.    If it's logical, entertaining and/or improves the quality of conversation it's a good thing.

[BullBuchanan]

Big nope from me. Let him walk and get a cap controlled talent with a higher ceiling in the draft. There are dozens of highly productive WRs in the league. While Davis makes some big plays, no part of his game is special, and If I'm paying $10-$20M for a WR, he better be special. This is an easy Edmunds 2.0 decision. Let someone else overpay and go get a WR1B to eventually replace Diggs instead like the Colts did with Wayne, the Falcons Did with White (and Later Julio), the 49ers with Owens, Boldin with Arizona etc.

[Thurman#1]

19 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

This really only tells part of the picture. A half truth if you will. 

 

Gabe's numbers you refer to are a three game sample. Can't the same logic be used with regards to the others? You can't have your cake and eat it too. 

 

In this fans eyes Gabe is a mediocre WR2. He's cheap now and that's significant because Beane is up against a tight cap. He certainly isn't worthy of big money come next year. It would be a huge mistake if Beane allocates big money here.

 

Gabe is 100% replaceable. I disagree that a won't be easy to upgrade the position. I disagree that getting better WR2 would only be a slight upgrade.

 

Come playoff time Diggs will likely get taken right out of the game. That's largely because Gabe isn't a very good WR2. He has a limited route tree and can't sperate quickly. That's pretty much indisputable. The KC game was anomaly. The guy very rarely wins contested passes and has some issues with drops. Disappears in many games or is unproductive. In short, he's not consistent or reliable as a WR2. His best asset is breaking off routes and Allen finding him. 

 

I watch Addison and Flowers and say damn I wish they were in a Bills' uniform. Beane could have moved up to get one of them. Evans or DHop were possible alternatives as well. Next year, there will be more choices. The opportunity will be there to upgrade the position.

 

Lastly, I'd argue with strong validity that Allen makes Gabe successful. Not vice versa. Gabe would be an absolute fill in with a mediocre QB throwing him the ball. An upgrade to the WR2 position would be huge for the Bills offense. 

 

When you paint the whole picture one can only conclude that this will be Gabe's last year in a Bills uniform. 

 

 

 

Well, yes, it's a three-game sample. I've said at least three times in this thread that numbers for three games are not yet statistically significant. Here's one of them:

 

On 9/28/2023 at 1:44 PM, Thurman#1 said:

 

Gabe is currently on track for 901 yards and 11.3 TDs. That would make him 27th in yards and put him in a four-way tie for 3rd in TDs if you put him into last year's rankings.

 

Now in reality three games isn't a big enough sample size. We don't really know how he'll do yet. Duh. But he's performing well.

 

He just is.

 

 

 

 

 

Funnily, when people on here in this thread are attacking Gabe's performance this year so far, I don't see you leaping in to tell them that three games isn't enough to judge. Why is that? Strangely, it's only when good things are said about Gabe that you jump in to save the day this way.

 

When you're talking about Gabe's performance this year, the three games are all there is. There's nothing else to talk about. People insulted his performance this year. Of course I used the three games to point out how wrong they are.

 

Duh.

 

As for your belief that one, "can only conclude that this will be Gabe's last year in a Bills uniform," congratulations for giving us a superb example of confirmation bias. What that there is ... is an opinion. An opinion that might possibly turn out to be true. And equally, an opinion that could easily turn out to be utterly wrong. Anyone with a clear view of the whole situation knows that we just don't know yet.

 

It'll depend on financial demands from both sides. It'll depend on our cap situation. And it will GREATLY depend on the rest of the season. You're right when you say it's only a three-game sample. Right. You've clearly made your mind up far far too early, with too few facts. How come it's OK for you?

 

If Gabe is awful the rest of the year they won't want him. If he's terrific, they will want him and things will come down to contract negotiations. The most likely outcome - if he doesn't get injured - is that he'll improve somewhat and perform at the level he'd likely have performed at last year if he hadn't been injured and if Josh's arm hadn't also been injured. In that case they'll likely try to get him back, but it might easily be financially prohibitive.

 

 

Edited September 30, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

20 hours ago, BananaB said:

And Juju ain’t on the Chiefs anymore is he. Gabe scores touchdowns but also stalls drives that ultimately lead to less points. 

It hasn’t just been 3 games, the problem has carried over from last year. 
 

 

 

Continued from last year? Yup.

 

His good performance, his production at the level of a #2, has indeed continued from last year, except that he's improved this year. 

 

Last year he was 33rd in yardage in the NFL and tied for 15th (a 9-way tie) in TDs, putting him in the top 23 in the league ... all despite being 48th in the league in terms of targets.

 

This year so far, he's 66th in the league in targets. And despite that he's 41st in yards and tied for 6th in TDs.

 

So yeah, he's continuing his good #2 performance from last year.

 

 

 

 

And yeah, Juju ain't on the Chiefs this year. Which has zero relevance, since I was talking about last year. Irrelevant, but it is at least true, so you got that going for you, I guess.

 

Edited September 30, 2023 by Thurman#1

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Well, yes, it's a three-game sample. I've said at least three times in this thread that numbers for three games are not yet statistically significant. Here's one of them:

 

 

 

 

Funnily, when people on here in this thread are attacking Gabe's performance this year so far, I don't see you leaping in to tell them that three games isn't enough to judge. Why is that? Strangely, it's only when good things are said about Gabe that you jump in to save the day this way.

 

When you're talking about Gabe's performance this year, the three games are all there is. There's nothing else to talk about. People insulted his performance this year. Of course I used the three games to point out how wrong they are.

 

Duh.

 

As for your belief that one, "can only conclude that this will be Gabe's last year in a Bills uniform," congratulations for giving us a superb example of confirmation bias. What that there is ... is an opinion. An opinion that might possibly turn out to be true. And equally, an opinion that could easily turn out to be utterly wrong. Anyone with a clear view of the whole situation knows that we just don't know yet.

 

It'll depend on financial demands from both sides. It'll depend on our cap situation. And it will GREATLY depend on the rest of the season. You're right when you say it's only a three-game sample. Right. You've clearly made your mind up far far too early, with too few facts. How come it's OK for you?

 

If Gabe is awful the rest of the year they won't want him. If he's terrific, they will want him and things will come down to contract negotiations. The most likely outcome - if he doesn't get injured - is that he'll improve somewhat and perform at the level he'd likely have performed at last year if he hadn't been injured and if Josh's arm hadn't also been injured. In that case they'll likely try to get him back, but it might easily be financially prohibitive.

 

 

I have four years of Gabe's body of work. It speaks for itself. I don't need this season's 3 game sample as a reference. 

 

Of course, I don't know the future of Davis as a Bill. My statement wasn't a statement of fact. It was an opinion which your correctly pointed out. 

 

I wouldn't mind seeing Davis as a WR 3 or 4 at a reasonable salary for that type of player. 

 

 

Edited September 30, 2023 by newcam2012

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

I have four years of Gabe's body of work. It speaks for itself. I don't need this season's 3 game sample as a reference. 

 

 

You have four years of Gabe's body of work? Wow!! I call that amazing!!! Is your name Nostradamus, by any chance?

 

The rest of us only have three years and three games this year.

 

How did you get four years? Has Mr. Peabody given you access to the Wayback Machine? And does it work forwards as well?

 

As for not needing this year's three game sample as a reference, yeah, that's what I would have guessed you'd say. It's what people with serious confirmation bias say. They already know. They don't need no stinking new data. They know what the future will be like. I'm quite confident that you do feel that way.

 

Thing is, that doesn't say good things about your process.

 

Gabe showed last year that he's a #2. With the injury, in total he was an average to slightly below average #2. Hard to say what would have happened without his injury, and without Josh's throwing arm injury as well. But with both of those injuries, that's what he was.

 

 

 

Again, last year he was 33rd in yardage in the NFL and tied for 15th (a 9-way tie) in TDs, putting him in the top 23 in the league ... all despite being 48th in the league in terms of targets.

 

 

Edited September 30, 2023 by Thurman#1

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You have four years of Gabe's body of work? Wow!! I call that amazing!!! Is your name Nostradamus, by any chance?

 

The rest of us only have three years and three games this year.

 

How did you get four years? Has Mr. Peabody given you access to the Wayback Machine? And does it work forwards as well?

 

As for not needing this year's three game sample as a reference, yeah, that's what I would have guessed you'd say. It's what people with serious confirmation bias say. They already know. They don't need no stinking new data. They know what the future will be like. I'm quite confident that you do feel that way.

 

Thing is, that doesn't say good things about your process.

 

Gabe showed last year that he's a #2. With the injury, in total he was an average to slightly below average #2. Hard to say what would have happened without his injury, and without Josh's throwing arm injury as well. But with both of those injuries, that's what he was.

 

 

 

Again, last year he was 33rd in yardage in the NFL and tied for 15th (a 9-way tie) in TDs, putting him in the top 23 in the league ... all despite being 48th in the league in terms of targets.

 

 

You said it all right here "he was an average to slightly below average WR2." I want more than that from the WR2 position. Besides the big KC game Gabe's inconsistent play has been problematic. 

 

Also, Davis has one of the best QBs in the league throwing him the ball and an elite WR1 on the team. This in all likelihood helps him in the stat books. Can you imagine Davis' numbers with an average QB throwing him the ball? 

 

I'm not going to apologize for saying the Bills need to upgrade the WR2 position. I was hoping Kincaid was going to be that guy. After three games, it's pretty clear Kincaid isn't being utilized as such. Pretty disappointing early in the season. 

 

Like I said previously, I'm fine with him being a WR3/4. Pay him as such. 

[BillsMontreal]

Somewhere around the league, a Team will need him (and pay him). 

I really think a team could even try him as a WR1 if he has a good season.

For us, it will be too expensive for a WR2. No doupt about it.

It's a win-win for Davis and the Bills if he has a good season.

Do we have a compensatory draft pick if another team sigh him?

 

The best thing for us is to find the best WR in the draft sooner than later.

 

 

 

[BananaB]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Continued from last year? Yup.

 

His good performance, his production at the level of a #2, has indeed continued from last year, except that he's improved this year. 

 

Last year he was 33rd in yardage in the NFL and tied for 15th (a 9-way tie) in TDs, putting him in the top 23 in the league ... all despite being 48th in the league in terms of targets.

 

This year so far, he's 66th in the league in targets. And despite that he's 41st in yards and tied for 6th in TDs.

 

So yeah, he's continuing his good #2 performance from last year.

 

 

 

 

And yeah, Juju ain't on the Chiefs this year. Which has zero relevance, since I was talking about last year. Irrelevant, but it is at least true, so you got that going for you, I guess.

 

Last year

-10 games 3 catches or under

-8 games under 40 yards receiving 

-8 games 50% catch rate or lower

 

Hes the #2 guy in a pass happy offences with an all pro taking a huge majority of attention from defences. 
 

The shellacking they gave Pitt last year accounted for 20% of his yards, and 29% of his TDs. Take that game out and he’s averaging 44 yards a game with one TD every 3 games. How is that consistent? We never know what Gabe we’re gonna get on a game to game basis. He’s just too inconsistent for the position he is in. 

Edited September 30, 2023 by BananaB

[newcam2012]

21 hours ago, DapperCam said:

Bills have a top-3 QB in the league, and should have a top-5 offense in the league (they have the past 3 years). It isn’t really fair to compare Davis to WR #2 on other teams. His stats should be better based on the offense that he’s in. Other WRs have Sam Howell and Zach Wilson throwing to them.

 

The only question you should ask, is if another WR were given the same reps in the Bills offense at Davis’ spot, would they perform better.

 

I think a lot of WRs would perform better, and it’s an obvious opportunity to upgrade.

Bingo!!!

21 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

There's this weird fixation on TBD and elsewhere that if Buffalo drafts a player and they're not completely a bust then they need to be re-signed.  It's a risk-averse mindset where the Bills can't possibly acquire a better player and need to retain the old one.  It happened with Edmunds and is happening now with Davis

 

It's also because McBeane have re-signed all the guys who haven't completely stunk or played a position of lower value since 2017: Tre, Dawkins, Milano, Josh, Taron Johnson, Oliver, and Knox.  People have gotten used to this approach and now assume it's the only one.  Well, no...it's part of what has them in cap trouble.  Because you can say it's nice to have a guy like Knox, but at 13M AAV?  Or, Dawkins at almost 15M AAV?   I get loyalty, but too much makes players comfortable.    

 

If Buffalo's gonna stay competitive, they're going to need to move on from some vets who aren't busts, but represent an opportunity for improvement.  At one time, Belichick used to trade guys like Richard Seymour, a HOF'er, to Oakland when they had mileage left.  Few saw that coming, but it was what was best for the team.  Beane needs to replace some of these home-grown types that can be improved on with 1st contract players who aren't impacting their cap.  Because no way is Davis worth an extension given the production.   

Well said!

[newcam2012]

20 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I agree.  And the question for most of us has now become when does the FO do the upgrade?  Do they wait until next season or pull the trigger in-season.

 

My hope has been the plan for some time (since missing out on OBJ and DHop) is to acquire a veteran in-season.  They may have kept an outside hope that Gabe would rise to the occasion, but realized the long shot odds of that (and it has not happened).

 

And just to be clear this does not mean you trade Gabe, he remains as WR3.  

I'm all for Gabe being a WR3. He has great chemistry with Josh. He would be a very good WR3. 

 

I secretly was hoping the Bills were going to get Locket when the rumors were swirling he might be available. Obviously, Seattle retained him. 

 

I just not sure who is going to be available mid season worth picking up. Mike Evans cones to mind but not sure on his status. 

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Continued from last year? Yup.

 

His good performance, his production at the level of a #2, has indeed continued from last year, except that he's improved this year. 

 

Last year he was 33rd in yardage in the NFL and tied for 15th (a 9-way tie) in TDs, putting him in the top 23 in the league ... all despite being 48th in the league in terms of targets.

 

This year so far, he's 66th in the league in targets. And despite that he's 41st in yards and tied for 6th in TDs.

 

So yeah, he's continuing his good #2 performance from last year.

 

 

 

 

And yeah, Juju ain't on the Chiefs this year. Which has zero relevance, since I was talking about last year. Irrelevant, but it is at least true, so you got that going for you, I guess.

 

JuJu isn't someone I'd like to see in a Bills uniform. 

53 minutes ago, BillsMontreal said:

Somewhere around the league, a Team will need him (and pay him). 

I really think a team could even try him as a WR1 if he has a good season.

For us, it will be too expensive for a WR2. No doupt about it.

It's a win-win for Davis and the Bills if he has a good season.

Do we have a compensatory draft pick if another team sigh him?

 

The best thing for us is to find the best WR in the draft sooner than later.

 

 

 

No NFL team in their right mind would trot out Davis as a WR1. 

[newcam2012]

20 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

Gabe has up and down games.  He needs a big one this Sunday.

I had to laugh last game. Gabe almost never hauls in contested pass. That game he caught a contested ball on the sidelines. I had to do a double take. Low and behold he was out of bounds. 

46 minutes ago, BananaB said:

Last year

-10 games 3 catches or under

-8 games under 40 yards receiving 

-8 games 50% catch rate or lower

 

Hes the #2 guy in a pass happy offences with an all pro taking a huge majority of attention from defences. 
 

The shellacking they gave Pitt last year accounted for 20% of his yards, and 29% of his TDs. Take that game out and he’s averaging 44 yards a game with one TD every 3 games. How is that consistent? We never know what Gabe we’re gonna get on a game to game basis. He’s just too inconsistent for the position he is in. 

I agree 100%. As a fan, I don't need stats to back up what my eyes see. I see an underwhelming WR2 who lacks consistency. 

Edited September 30, 2023 by newcam2012

[NoSaint]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You have four years of Gabe's body of work? Wow!! I call that amazing!!! Is your name Nostradamus, by any chance?

 

The rest of us only have three years and three games this year.

 

How did you get four years? Has Mr. Peabody given you access to the Wayback Machine? And does it work forwards as well?

 

As for not needing this year's three game sample as a reference, yeah, that's what I would have guessed you'd say. It's what people with serious confirmation bias say. They already know. They don't need no stinking new data. They know what the future will be like. I'm quite confident that you do feel that way.

 

Thing is, that doesn't say good things about your process.

 

Gabe showed last year that he's a #2. With the injury, in total he was an average to slightly below average #2. Hard to say what would have happened without his injury, and without Josh's throwing arm injury as well. But with both of those injuries, that's what he was.

 

 

 

Again, last year he was 33rd in yardage in the NFL and tied for 15th (a 9-way tie) in TDs, putting him in the top 23 in the league ... all despite being 48th in the league in terms of targets.

 

 

next stop in breaking the stalemate: what do you think the average salary for that player should be, and do you think gabe should be a top 5 average salary in Buffalo?

1 hour ago, BananaB said:

Last year

-10 games 3 catches or under

-8 games under 40 yards receiving 

-8 games 50% catch rate or lower

 

Hes the #2 guy in a pass happy offences with an all pro taking a huge majority of attention from defences. 
 

The shellacking they gave Pitt last year accounted for 20% of his yards, and 29% of his TDs. Take that game out and he’s averaging 44 yards a game with one TD every 3 games. How is that consistent? We never know what Gabe we’re gonna get on a game to game basis. He’s just too inconsistent for the position he is in. 

and I’m not a huge fan of just taking games/plays out but in weighting his production from the past and looking forward part of me always wants to lop about 50 yards off that one catch and still credit him with a long TD but like 48 instead of 98 to normalize it a little. 

[Dopey]

55 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I had to laugh last game. Gabe almost never hauls in contested pass. That game he caught a contested ball on the sidelines. I had to do a double take. Low and behold he was out of bounds. 

I agree 100%. As a fan, I don't need stats to back up what my eyes see. I see an underwhelming WR2 who lacks consistency. 

Do your eyes still see a crappy LB that wears #43? I don’t trust your eyes. 
Maybe you should wear thicker glasses. 
 Sincerely, 

Your cousin Vinny. 

Edited September 30, 2023 by Dopey

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

21 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I agree.  And the question for most of us has now become when does the FO do the upgrade?  Do they wait until next season or pull the trigger in-season.

 

My hope has been the plan for some time (since missing out on OBJ and DHop) is to acquire a veteran in-season.  They may have kept an outside hope that Gabe would rise to the occasion, but realized the long shot odds of that (and it has not happened).

 

And just to be clear this does not mean you trade Gabe, he remains as WR3.  

 

You can't afford this or you're getting someone not much better than what they have.  I'm sure they tried to sign Hopkins, but the money was too high.  So now you're down to mid tier guys.  WR is probably one of the tougher positions for a player to come in and contribute right away as there's a learning curve on two sides, both for the QB to learn the WR and the WR to learn the QB.  Add to that, believe I've read the Bills playbook is more involved than many teams.

 

Even if they were to sign/trade for a player, that guy is going to have to jump over mid-season Shakir, Sherfield, and even Harty

 

Miami has two great WR's but one is still on a rookie contract who was drafted #6 overall.  The Bills actually kind of did that this year with Kincaid. 

 

There's a post about 2 or 3 above yours from Billsvet, while I don't totally agree with everything he said, the one statement is true here for the WR postion:  Beane needs to replace some of these home-grown types that can be improved on with 1st contract players who aren't impacting their cap.   That happens next year, but I'm not sure when you put Diggs, plus a very likely improved Kincaid, then add Knox and Cook out of backfield, the #2 WR will ever put up big stats in this offense.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Been going through this trade for a few weeks. It makes sense to me. We’d be getting a talented former 1st round WR with another year left on his contract and a 5th year option. 
 

The trade is Kaiir Elam for Rashod Bateman. Bateman could come in this year and push Davis. Learn the system. Then next year take over as WR2. Bateman has had a lot of injury history. Hasn’t taken off like expected.

 

What would you say?

[BarleyNY]

7 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Been going through this trade for a few weeks. It makes sense to me. We’d be getting a talented former 1st round WR with another year left on his contract and a 5th year option. 
 

The trade is Kaiir Elam for Rashod Bateman. Bateman could come in this year and push Davis. Learn the system. Then next year take over as WR2. Bateman has had a lot of injury history. Hasn’t taken off like expected.

 

What would you say?

 

Thank you for putting a very reasonable trade idea out here. I’d be down for this. It’s fair and would give two highly drafted players a change of scenery and scheme. From the Bill’s perspective, Bateman would be moving to an overall situation that is better structured and executed in a more typical NFL fashion. Props for a very good idea. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Just saw this on Spotrec, I'm guessing the reaction will be no way he's worth these numbers.  But I'll bet Spotrac is closer to where he ends up than posters here are.  He's somewhat below the averages in most categories but his projected salary is also a little lower.