Who else is in the let’s get Gabe Davis signed to an extension camp?

[Einstein]

31 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Agree with all of that except the "skill" part.

 

 Davis lacks the movement skills to excel at a wide variety of routes and has naturally hard hands.

 

The latter is why he claps at the ball, IMO.   He knows his hands suck so he's developed this weird technique that looks ridiculous when he drops the ball.........but at this point it seems likely that he is more comfortable catching the ball with his hands in motion than stationary like more highly skilled pass catchers.   

 

Gabe Davis is a hard worker but he's more of an overachiever than a guy with WR2 skill,  IMO.

You're right. I redact my skill comment.

[WhoTom]

45 minutes ago, DasNootz said:

This is a business - he has one shot at setting he and his family up for life.  He lives in Florida in the off-season.  He will (and should) follow the money if offered a better contract elsewhere.  

 

Even a team-friendly deal would net him tens of millions of dollars - more than enough to set someone up for life. If he's happy with the team and his role, then he may give the Bills a hometown discount. He often talks about listening to his mother, who told him not to chase the money but to be grateful that he's living the dream right now.

 

Milano, Poyer, and others have hit FA and stayed with the Bills even though they could have made more money on the open market. Some players want the ring more than they want the outrageous payday.

 

The question is whether the Bills think he's worth a modest contract extension or if they'll simply let him play out his contract and let him walk without an offer. I think the jury is still out on that one.

Edited September 27, 2023 by WhoTom

[NoSaint]

27 minutes ago, WhoTom said:

 

Even a team-friendly deal would net him tens of millions of dollars - more than enough to set someone up for life. If he's happy with the team and his role, then he may give the Bills a hometown discount. He often talks about listening to his mother, who told him not to chase the money but to be grateful that he's living the dream right now.

 

Milano, Poyer, and others have hit FA and stayed with the Bills even though they could have made more money on the open market. Some players want the ring more than they want the outrageous payday.

 

The question is whether the Bills think he's worth a modest contract extension or if they'll simply let him play out his contract and let him walk without an offer. I think the jury is still out on that one.

the bills don’t have the luxury of paying a guy that hasn’t stepped up 8 figures a year. 

[78thealltimegreat]

7 hours ago, finn said:

He might be an overall liability, actually, and the Bills might do better letting him go after this season. Look at the last game, for instance. Five targets, one catch for a TD, one drop, one interception that arguably was his fault. Not a fair sample, maybe, but his career catch rate is low, his drop rate high, he's not quick, has a hard time getting open, and often runs lazy routes. 

 

The positives people have pointed out (except for the blocking) flow almost entirely from playing with a future Hall of Fame quarterback. 

Oh I agree and a team like the Giants who of course he would have ties to us going to way overpay him. Next year is going to be one of the deepest receiver classes in years they don’t need to do this . 

[ColoradoBills]

2 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Oh I agree and a team like the Giants who of course he would have ties to us going to way overpay him. Next year is going to be one of the deepest receiver classes in years they don’t need to do this . 

 

There is also a big number of big name WRs in FA next year.  Gabe has a market value currently of $11.2M.  He probably will get that

unless the wheels fall off of his game.  Like @NoSaintsaid above, the Bills can't do 8 figures for him.  I'm hoping for a 4th round comp pick

and a Day 1 or Day 2 drafted WR.

[Old Coot]

Part of Gabe's problem with dropped passes may be that he does not have large hands for a WR. His hand size is 9 1/4 inches. Given that Josh throws fireballs (or Firebaughs), the combo of hand size and pass velocity might, in part, cause Gabe's dropsey.

[BADOLBILZ]

14 minutes ago, Old Coot said:

Part of Gabe's problem with dropped passes may be that he does not have large hands for a WR. His hand size is 9 1/4 inches. Given that Josh throws fireballs (or Firebaughs), the combo of hand size and pass velocity might, in part, cause Gabe's dropsey.

 

Eh, it doesn't help him I'm sure but he just doesn't have good hand eye coordination so his hands don't make that subtle adjustment at the catch point to decelerate the ball and create that "soft hands" look.

 

Davante Adams, for example, has smaller-than-Gabe 9" hands and his hands are great.    

 

Gabe had an astonishingly poor 10% drop rate last season..........Adams was at 3.9% last year after a couple years where he was sub 1% and sub 2% in 2020-2021.

 

 

[Solomon Grundy]

10 hours ago, GustheDog33 said:

Bills first round pick in 2024 needs to be a dynamic WR with size and speed.  Oh and Gabe will be fine wherever he ends up, but I don't think he is getting a second contract from Buffalo.

AD Mitchell from Texas or Johnny Wilson from FSU

[Dr.Sack]

Sign me up 

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, NoSaint said:

yea, I want to cheer for him. Seems like a good enough guy and the type you’d like to see succeed - even beyond the fact that we have the need… 

 

but he just isn’t naturally gifted at the job when compared to guys who are top 64 at it. Doesn’t have short or long speed. Doesn’t have exceptional hands. 
 

Even his long TD this week wasn’t particularly fluid or skilled as an example of success despite the challenges instead of success because of high skills. 
 

He’s not a bum or lazy or anything. He just seems to be a tier or two higher than his natural skill set would normally warrant.

 

 

Ability doesn't equal skills. It's a ton of different things, how hard you work, mental processing ability, fitness, strength. Fit with the QB and the system. There's a lot to it. But Josh loves him, there's no question about fit with Josh. And he absolutely does have speed, that's not a question either. Not Tyreek speed, or even close, but he gets open deep a lot and a lot of the time it's because he outruns his guy.

 

But without the skills, you don't even get in the door. Gabe's got skills, and a lot of them. It would certainly be nice if we had - outside of Diggs - yet another guy with #1 skills. But very very few teams are in that position, particularly teams that consistently draft later than #20.

 

 

 

 

8 hours ago, NoSaint said:

the bills don’t have the luxury of paying a guy that hasn’t stepped up 8 figures a year. 

 

 

Very true. However, that's not Gabe, Gabe has stepped up. He's a #2, and a productive one. For a 4th round pick, that is without question stepping up bigtime.

 

It's not clear that they'll re-sign him. They want to, but they absolutely won't be able to make all the moves they'd like to and retain everyone they would retain in an ideal world.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

18 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Don’t overpay Gabe he’s a number 3 receiver masquerading as a number 2 

 

 

You know what they call a number 3 receiver masquerading as a number 2? 

 

They call them a number two. 

 

If  you can do the things a number two can - and Gabe absolutely does - you're a #2. And the people who call you a #3 are wrong.

 

Gabe is currently on track for 901 yards and 11.3 TDs. That would make him 27th in yards and put him in a four-way tie for 3rd in TDs if you put him into last year's rankings.

 

Now in reality three games isn't a big enough sample size. We don't really know how he'll do yet. Duh. But he's performing well.

 

He just is.

 

 

[Richard Noggin]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You know what they call a number 3 receiver masquerading as a number 2? 

 

They call them a number two. 

 

If  you can do the things a number two can - and Gabe absolutely does - you're a #2. And the people who call you a #3 are wrong.

 

Gabe is currently on track for 901 yards and 11.3 TDs. That would make him 27th in yards and put him in a four-way tie for 3rd in TDs if you put him into last year's rankings.

 

Now in reality three games isn't a big enough sample size. We don't really know how he'll do yet. Duh. But he's performing well.

 

He just is.

 

 

 

You might mean he's PRODUCING well? Projecting season totals has nothing much to do with efficacy, and almost everything to do with opportunity. 

 

Performing well, in my mind, would include a couple more catches already, given the targets he's already seen. 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

You might mean he's PRODUCING well? Projecting season totals has nothing much to do with efficacy, and almost everything to do with opportunity. 

 

Performing well, in my mind, would include a couple more catches already, given the targets he's already seen. 

 

 

Richard, you're a great poster.  But come on.

 

Production doesn't mean you're playing well? Dude, that's ridiculous. 

 

You can have all the opportunity you want and you still either end up producing ... or not. Plenty of guys who get opportunities fail with them. Davis is succeeding.

 

As for receiving opportunities, let's look at both last year and this year.

 

Last year he was 33rd in yardage in the NFL and tied for 15th (a 9-way tie), putting him in the top 23 in the league in TDs ... all despite being 48th in the league in terms of targets. In other words, he got an awful lot more production than his opportunities would have led you to expect. 33rd and tied for 15th are both excellent production for having the 48th most opportunities in the league.

 

This year so far, he's 66th in the league in targets. And despite that he's 41st in yards and tied for 6th in TDs.

 

He's OVER-producing for the opportunities he's had.

 

And projected season numbers have a great deal to do with efficacy. Everything, really. They are produced directly from his productivity. He's been very productive. That's why his projected effectiveness is high.

 

 

Edited September 28, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Billsatlastin2018]

I don’t care how ‘good’ a dude you are, how well you fit in, how fabulous you practice.

 

On EVERY game day, as a WR, do you get open and do you catch the ball?

 

if either are deficient, as they ARE, you cannot play on this high calibre team!

[BananaB]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Richard, you're a great poster.  But come on.

 

Production doesn't mean you're playing well? Dude, that's ridiculous. 

 

You can have all the opportunity you want and you still either end up producing ... or not. Plenty of guys who get opportunities fail with them. Davis is succeeding.

 

As for receiving opportunities, let's look at both last year and this year.

 

Last year he was 33rd in yardage in the NFL and tied for 15th (a 9-way tie), putting him in the top 23 in the league in TDs ... all despite being 48th in the league in terms of targets. In other words, he got an awful lot more production than his opportunities would have led you to expect. 33rd and tied for 15th are both excellent production for having the 48th most opportunities in the league.

 

This year so far, he's 66th in the league in targets. And despite that he's 41st in yards and tied for 6th in TDs.

 

He's OVER-producing for the opportunities he's had.

 

And projected season numbers have a great deal to do with efficacy. Everything, really. They are produced directly from his productivity. He's been very productive. That's why his projected effectiveness is high.

 

 

Everyone knows Davis gets yardage. He makes big plays. Problem is he is very inconsistent in between the big plays. We need a guy who is reliable to help move the chains, not just produce on deep routes. 

Edited September 28, 2023 by BananaB

[NoSaint]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Ability doesn't equal skills. It's a ton of different things, how hard you work, mental processing ability, fitness, strength. Fit with the QB and the system. There's a lot to it. But Josh loves him, there's no question about fit with Josh. And he absolutely does have speed, that's not a question either. Not Tyreek speed, or even close, but he gets open deep a lot and a lot of the time it's because he outruns his guy.

 

But without the skills, you don't even get in the door. Gabe's got skills, and a lot of them. It would certainly be nice if we had - outside of Diggs - yet another guy with #1 skills. But very very few teams are in that position, particularly teams that consistently draft later than #20.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Very true. However, that's not Gabe, Gabe has stepped up. He's a #2, and a productive one. For a 4th round pick, that is without question stepping up bigtime.

 

It's not clear that they'll re-sign him. They want to, but they absolutely won't be able to make all the moves they'd like to and retain everyone they would retain in an ideal world.

 

 

Unfortunately his measurables don’t match what you are saying and his tape doesnt show a burner deep frankly. 
 

his agility measurables are very low for a guy in the league and we see that pretty consistently in his play specifically. 
 

 

[NoSaint]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Richard, you're a great poster.  But come on.

 

Production doesn't mean you're playing well? Dude, that's ridiculous. 

 

You can have all the opportunity you want and you still either end up producing ... or not. Plenty of guys who get opportunities fail with them. Davis is succeeding.

 

As for receiving opportunities, let's look at both last year and this year.

 

Last year he was 33rd in yardage in the NFL and tied for 15th (a 9-way tie), putting him in the top 23 in the league in TDs ... all despite being 48th in the league in terms of targets. In other words, he got an awful lot more production than his opportunities would have led you to expect. 33rd and tied for 15th are both excellent production for having the 48th most opportunities in the league.

 

This year so far, he's 66th in the league in targets. And despite that he's 41st in yards and tied for 6th in TDs.

 

He's OVER-producing for the opportunities he's had.

 

And projected season numbers have a great deal to do with efficacy. Everything, really. They are produced directly from his productivity. He's been very productive. That's why his projected effectiveness is high.

 

 

has it struck you yet that he’s not getting the targets because Josh and Dorsey might like him less than you? 

 

to be an established WR2 on a team that runs a top 5-10 play volume (and passing volume) and be 66th in targets is in and of itself a red flag. 

[GustheDog33]

10 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

AD Mitchell from Texas or Johnny Wilson from FSU

Love Wilson. He is like 6'6" and can run.  Let's get him!

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:

I don’t care how ‘good’ a dude you are, how well you fit in, how fabulous you practice.

 

On EVERY game day, as a WR, do you get open and do you catch the ball?

 

if either are deficient, as they ARE, you cannot play on this high calibre team!

 

 

Thing is, it takes more than you capitalizing the word "ARE" to make a statement true. They are not deficient.

 

If they were deficient, he couldn't do the job, and yet he can and does. Well enough that pretty much everyone agrees that he's likely to get a contact in the eight figures per year range. 

 

He could be better, as could everyone, really. But he's not deficient.

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, BananaB said:

Everyone knows Davis gets yardage. He makes big plays. Problem is he is very inconsistent in between the big plays. We need a guy who is reliable to help move the chains, not just produce on deep routes. 

 

 

When you look at the guys who have YPCs close to Davis's, most of them are inconsistent. It's really hard to be inconsistent when you're catching longer balls. The QB is likely not to be able to be as accurate and things just get tougher. Catch/target ratios go down for guys who are getting thrown a lot of longer balls. And that's Davis.

 

It would be nice if we had a guy who could do everything well. But very few guys can, and those guys get paid like #1s. Very few teams have two of them. That's just the way it is. Gabe gets big plays, and that is a very very important and valuable skill.

 

 

 

2 hours ago, NoSaint said:

Unfortunately his measurables don’t match what you are saying and his tape doesnt show a burner deep frankly. 
 

his agility measurables are very low for a guy in the league and we see that pretty consistently in his play specifically. 
 

 

 

 

Could you just point out where I said he was a burner?

 

I didn't. I did say that he does run past guys consistently. The reason I said that is because he does run past guys consistently. It's one of the reasons he often gets open deep.

 

I'm not going to argue the measurables. I'm arguing that he gets open deep, that he's effective and productive. He is. This is what makes him a very legit #2.