Interesting NY Post article…claims Kincaid was Beane’s target days before the draft…

[JerseyBills]

On 8/10/2023 at 11:10 AM, BillsFanNC said:

In the video they have Pegula asking Beane pre draft (6:39 PM as suggested in video)...

 

"If somebody's falling..."

 

Beane:

 

"The Utah TE.."

Pegula- Kincaid would be a game changer. Certainly looks so. Got 1 of the best weapons in the draft. Unbelievable 

[Beck Water]

4 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

I’d be very disappointed in Beane if he wanted Kincaid more than any of the WRs that went before him, particularly JSN. 

 

Beane did say they had a first-round grade on one of the receivers who was drafted in the early 20s, before Kincaid. 

 

He didn't say which one (natch) and he didn't give any indication who he would have taken if they were both there.

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But the problem when you start justifying decisions in isolation is you can make a case why each and every decision is sensible "at the time". That is why strategy matters. I am not displeased with the outcome, but when you start saying to yourself "we must have a pass catcher" or "we must have X guy" you set yourself up to make mistakes. My point was never to say that they were just going to take any old receiver... but the fact that they lasered in so much on a pass catcher means you start saying things like "it makes sense to give up a 4th." And again, I'm not displeased with this outcome. But strategically giving up your 4th rounder two years in a row to make small moves up because you have said positions are that vital to you isn't the way I'd try and run my personnel operation. 

 

I don't think you (or any of us) can know whether the Bills did, in fact, "laser in on a pass catcher" or say "we must have a pass catcher".  And I don't think Beane was flying by the seat of his pants "oh, there's only one pass catcher we want left, and we really need one, let's give up a 4th"

 

On the other hand, obviously roster building does have to factor into it to some degree, or you wind up drafting CB (for example) every year when you have real needs at every position.

 

My guess would be that the Bills have a handful of guys, maybe 10-15, they have graded as first round talents then a smaller set, maybe 6, they have graded as a match between 1st round talent and roster-building needs.  They probably have  1 or 2 they would be willing to use resources to trade up for.  And then I suspect they work scenarios - three draft picks ahead of our slot, how many of those guys are left?  And how high is our grade on the ones that are left?  Are they players we have flagged as "trade up worthy?"

 

Because if it gets to 3 picks ahead of you and you have 2 guys graded as 1st round picks who remain, your choice is 1) trade up 2) stand pat and trade down if you can 3) stand pat and reach

 

That's how I think it happens, not "Oh my goodness, we MUST have a pass catcher, so much that we'll squander resources and trade up to get one".

 

Edited August 11, 2023 by Beck Water

[NewEra]

9 hours ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

I don’t get how he dropped still when having a top 5 tight end is the ultimate mismatch in todays NFL. 

I think it was the back injury. 

 

Maybe.  Maybe not.  

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Beane did say they had a first-round grade on one of the receivers who was drafted in the early 20s, before Kincaid. 

 

He didn't say which one (natch) and he didn't give any indication who he would have taken if they were both there.

 

 

I don't think you (or any of us) can know whether the Bills did, in fact, "laser in on a pass catcher" or say "we must have a pass catcher".  And I don't think Beane was flying by the seat of his pants "oh, there's only one pass catcher we want left, and we really need one, let's give up a 4th"

 

On the other hand, obviously roster building does have to factor into it to some degree, or you wind up drafting CB (for example) every year when you have real needs at every position.

 

My guess would be that the Bills have a handful of guys, maybe 10-15, they have graded as first round talents then a smaller set, maybe 6, they have graded as a match between 1st round talent and roster-building needs.  They probably have  1 or 2 they would be willing to use resources to trade up for.  And then I suspect they work scenarios - three draft picks ahead of our slot, how many of those guys are left?  And how high is our grade on the ones that are left?  Are they players we have flagged as "trade up worthy?"

 

Because if it gets to 3 picks ahead of you and you have 2 guys graded as 1st round picks who remain, your choice is 1) trade up 2) stand pat and trade down if you can 3) stand pat and reach

 

That's how I think it happens, not "Oh my goodness, we MUST have a pass catcher, so much that we'll squander resources and trade up to get one".

 

 

That is how it SHOULD happen. Beane pretty much told us in 2022 he didn't think he could sleep if he didn't come out of day 1 without a corner. He didn't quite say "we had to have one" but it was pretty clear their primary objective in 2022 was to come out of round 1 with a corner. He wasn't quite as explicit in the run up to, or after, this past draft but the way they went about their draft season and the way the draft panned out I very strongly suspect they were dead set on a pass catcher and if there wasn't a pass catcher there for them they though was value (or achievable with a small trade up) they were going to move down. They were not willing to pick a non-pass catcher at their original spot. They had lasered in on it to my eye. I accept that is supposition and I don't know it for certain, but I don't think it is an unreasonable conclusion to come to based on everything that we do know - from visits, to the way the draft played out, to Beane's interviews and to the draft room videos. 

[Beck Water]

On 8/10/2023 at 7:32 AM, BillsFanNC said:

 

Yep.

 

 

 

 

to @Gunnerbill's point, it's notable that in this video, Beane is busy wheeling and dealing (and has his crew querying) to see what he can get if he moves back.

 

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is how it SHOULD happen. Beane pretty much told us in 2022 he didn't think he could sleep if he didn't come out of day 1 without a corner. He didn't quite say "we had to have one" but it was pretty clear their primary objective in 2022 was to come out of round 1 with a corner. He wasn't quite as explicit in the run up to, or after, this past draft but the way they went about their draft season and the way the draft panned out I very strongly suspect they were dead set on a pass catcher and if there wasn't a pass catcher there for them they though was value (or achievable with a small trade up) they were going to move down. They were not willing to pick a non-pass catcher at their original spot. They had lasered in on it to my eye. I accept that is supposition and I don't know it for certain, but I don't think it is an unreasonable conclusion to come to based on everything that we do know - from visits, to the way the draft played out, to Beane's interviews and to the draft room videos. 

 

I didn't here that in 2022, but it's hard to prove a negative.  If you had any links to articles and videos demonstrating that, would be cool.

[SoMAn]

23 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Doing deals to trade UP, and giving up assets in the process, in order to get "that 1 guy that you really like" is fundamentally BAD BUSINESS and not how to proceed, long term.

 

Beane likes doing this, which is one of his few weak points.

 

We'll hopefully find out what Kincaid is about this year, assuming McDermott will play him a ton, which he should.

 

 

 

Exactly. Like the time Beane gave up assets in the 2018 draft for an unproven small school QB. What a dope.😒

[whorlnut]

13 hours ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Given that Beane was looking for a pass catcher in Rd1, imo he would have picked say Addison over Kincaid if both were available. And said the exact same thing he is saying about Kincaid

I honestly don’t believe this at all. I think he preferred Kincaid all along. He really like Davis at WR and has been pushing this type of TE for a few seasons now. 

[John from Riverside]

The thing that I am loving about Dalton Kincaid until he proves different is the consistency
 

He doesn’t appear to have any ups or downs in camp. He’s just good.

 

He’s also got a niche role if you have something that you’re really good at and you’ve got a coordinated that knows how to use it you will shine

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But the problem when you start justifying decisions in isolation is you can make a case why each and every decision is sensible "at the time". That is why strategy matters. I am not displeased with the outcome, but when you start saying to yourself "we must have a pass catcher" or "we must have X guy" you set yourself up to make mistakes. My point was never to say that they were just going to take any old receiver... but the fact that they lasered in so much on a pass catcher means you start saying things like "it makes sense to give up a 4th." And again, I'm not displeased with this outcome. But strategically giving up your 4th rounder two years in a row to make small moves up because you have said positions are that vital to you isn't the way I'd try and run my personnel operation. 

 

Yeah, but this isn't done in a vacuum, there is context and circumstances that dictate some of these decisions, including a substantial amount of draft research not only on the players but insight and how the board might fall.  

 

For example, in both cases, the Bills were picking late in the first round.  It's not like they went into the draft 100% certain they needed to trade up to get Elam for example.  He was a kid they were high on who they felt they would have a shot at where they were picking, and the pre-draft footage supports that, and as the draft fell he was by all accounts the last player on their board with a first round grade.  It was in that moment where they felt they needed to make a move to get him because they also didn't have anyone else graded high enough to take at their draft slot if he went before their pick.  

 

Had there been multiple players they liked at their spot then the need to make a move maybe doesn't happen.  Same with Kincaid, they didn't feel he was even going to make it to them.  And as they approached their pick, he was the only one on the board they felt had a first round grade at any position, and getting the offense more weapons was also a priority.  

 

So combine the fact that we needed more weapons for Allen and no one left beyond Kincaid had a first round grade, offense or defense, and the fact they had Kincaid graded high on their board and was a significant value add at where they could get him, they decided to make the move to go get him that was relatively inexpensive compared to some of the other moves teams made to move up in the first.

 

I don't think that if say Kincaid and the 2 WR's who they reportedly had a first round grade on were all on the board they would have felt the need to move up.  

 

Lastly, when you are top level team with a tight cap, best way to add high end talent cost effectively is to through the draft.  And when you are drafting late, you don't often have opportunities to land premium players, and they very much saw Kincaid as a premium prospect graded higher than where we got him.  In fact many felt he has the best hands of any TE or WR in the draft, so to be in position to get a premium prospect late in the first by only giving up a 4th is one of those opportunities that doesn't happen every year.  So I like that Beane is aggressive in these moments to go get the talent he has graded high rather than sit back and take someone they didn't even have a first round grade on.  

[WotAGuy]

11 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

The obligatory FIFY

Couldn't have been Angeline; Tempo is the only place that serves retatta. 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

The NYP is frequently entertaining. 

 

It is rarely, if ever, useful. 

[Warriorspikes51]

It would be a massive boost to the offense if he is borderline elite as a rookie.

There seems to be some Kelce in him with his route nuances, knowing where to be against certain coverages, being lucky on tipped balls, great hands

I just really hope that the staff puts him in positions to succeed and doesn't bench him for long periods of a game if he makes a mistake or misses a block 

Edited August 11, 2023 by Warriorspikes51

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

to @Gunnerbill's point, it's notable that in this video, Beane is busy wheeling and dealing (and has his crew querying) to see what he can get if he moves back.

 

 

I didn't here that in 2022, but it's hard to prove a negative.  If you had any links to articles and videos demonstrating that, would be cool.

 

He said it in the post pick presser. 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yeah, but this isn't done in a vacuum, there is context and circumstances that dictate some of these decisions, including a substantial amount of draft research not only on the players but insight and how the board might fall.  

 

For example, in both cases, the Bills were picking late in the first round.  It's not like they went into the draft 100% certain they needed to trade up to get Elam for example.  He was a kid they were high on who they felt they would have a shot at where they were picking, and the pre-draft footage supports that, and as the draft fell he was by all accounts the last player on their board with a first round grade.  It was in that moment where they felt they needed to make a move to get him because they also didn't have anyone else graded high enough to take at their draft slot if he went before their pick.  

 

Had there been multiple players they liked at their spot then the need to make a move maybe doesn't happen.  Same with Kincaid, they didn't feel he was even going to make it to them.  And as they approached their pick, he was the only one on the board they felt had a first round grade at any position, and getting the offense more weapons was also a priority.  

 

So combine the fact that we needed more weapons for Allen and no one left beyond Kincaid had a first round grade, offense or defense, and the fact they had Kincaid graded high on their board and was a significant value add at where they could get him, they decided to make the move to go get him that was relatively inexpensive compared to some of the other moves teams made to move up in the first.

 

I don't think that if say Kincaid and the 2 WR's who they reportedly had a first round grade on were all on the board they would have felt the need to move up.  

 

Lastly, when you are top level team with a tight cap, best way to add high end talent cost effectively is to through the draft.  And when you are drafting late, you don't often have opportunities to land premium players, and they very much saw Kincaid as a premium prospect graded higher than where we got him.  In fact many felt he has the best hands of any TE or WR in the draft, so to be in position to get a premium prospect late in the first by only giving up a 4th is one of those opportunities that doesn't happen every year.  So I like that Beane is aggressive in these moments to go get the talent he has graded high rather than sit back and take someone they didn't even have a first round grade on.  

 

Again what you are doing is saying "in isolation this made sense". I don't disagree with that. But you get yourself into the habit of justifying isolated decisions you can justify anything. Personally I think you have to take a more strategic view and I think Beane's aggression is mainly tactical and not strategic.

 

I don't dislike the outcome. Doesn't mean I agree with the process.

[NC-billsfan!]

On 8/10/2023 at 8:32 AM, BillsFanNC said:

 

Yep.

 

 

 

Thanks! Looks like they got at least two maybe three players they liked a lot.

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He said it in the post pick presser. 

 

OK.  But I do think after the draft, every GM channels his "inner cat"

 

You know, how a cat will fall off the edge of a table and then give you a look like "I meant to do that.  Obviously, that was what I wanted to do".    The players they wind up with are the ones they really wanted and are thrilled they had the opportunity to draft. 

 

After the draft, when talking up their draft picks, no "spin" intended at all 😇

Edited August 11, 2023 by Beck Water

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

OK.  But I do think after the draft, every GM channels his "inner cat"

 

You know, how a cat will fall off the edge of a table and then give you a look like "I meant to do that.  Obviously, that was what I wanted to do".    The players they wind up with are the ones they really wanted and are thrilled they had the opportunity to draft. 

 

No "spin" intended

 

I just don't believe the Bills are that unpredictable under this regime (not syaing that is a bad thing). In 2021 most thought it would be pass rusher. Was Rousseau. In 2022 most thought it would be corner. It was Elam. In 2023 most thought it would be receiver. It was Kincaid (a receiving tight end). 

 

Beane is bad at playing his cards close to his chest. He tells you straight (too straight sometimes). That isn't my critcism of him. It is part of why as a guy I really admire him. My criticism is his recent drafts - since we have been on the precipice - have been tactical not strategic.

[Doc]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I just don't believe the Bills are that unpredictable under this regime (not syaing that is a bad thing). In 2021 most thought it would be pass rusher. Was Rousseau. In 2022 most thought it would be corner. It was Elam. In 2023 most thought it would be receiver. It was Kincaid (a receiving tight end). 

 

Beane is bad at playing his cards close to his chest. He tells you straight (too straight sometimes). That isn't my critcism of him. It is part of why as a guy I really admire him. My criticism is his recent drafts - since we have been on the precipice - have been tactical not strategic.

 

He's said the past 3 drafts that every player he's taken was a 1st round talent, sometimes the last one left on their board.  That sounds strategic.

[Beck Water]

53 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I just don't believe the Bills are that unpredictable under this regime (not syaing that is a bad thing). In 2021 most thought it would be pass rusher. Was Rousseau. In 2022 most thought it would be corner. It was Elam. In 2023 most thought it would be receiver. It was Kincaid (a receiving tight end). 

 

Beane is bad at playing his cards close to his chest. He tells you straight (too straight sometimes). That isn't my critcism of him. It is part of why as a guy I really admire him. My criticism is his recent drafts - since we have been on the precipice - have been tactical not strategic.

 

I think, before potentially diving down a wormhole of misunderstanding in further discussion, I need to ask you what you mean by tactical and what you mean by strategic in this context

 

Because part of the behavior you believe you see - "the team really needs a CB on day 1 of the draft" "I must come out of day 1 with a receiving talent", IF it is what's occurring, sounds like what I would call draft strategy.  How you get there (trade up, stand pat and reach, trade back) sounds like tactics.

 

[Richard Noggin]

12 hours ago, WotAGuy said:

Couldn't have been Angeline; Tempo is the only place that serves retatta. 

 

Man, I was still only on the BBMB back in 2005 when "retatta" was a message board thing here. So I am completely missing the actual reference beyond knowing there was some obviously humorous TBD thread 18 years ago when I was exclusively frequenting the "official" Bills message board when that existed. 

 

Anyone care to summarize for us BBMB refugees (or for the many youngins)?