Training Camp - 8/9 - 9:45am

[eball]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Is "Isn't exactly falling off a cliff" another version of Promo's "at least we're not the Lions" rationale from the drought?

 

The Bills receivers literally had the most dropped passes in the NFL last season.   

 

Allen saw his passer rating drop 15 points from 2020 to 2021.........he was on a different plane as a passer that year and so was the entire offense.

 

Instead Allen has seen his completion % drop from 4th in the NFL to 24th and 22nd the past two seasons.

 

Don't you think he's a better QB now than he was then?  

 

The talent level around him has caused a tangible decline in his per snap productivity as a passer...........and subsequently he's had to take it upon himself to make up for lost production on the ground.    It's also adding up to extra hits/mileage.   That's not falling off a cliff but it's a decline that shouldn't have been allowed to happen for lack of attention to the offense in recent offseasons.    

 

 

Last year was closer to 2020 than 2021 for Josh, and the bottom line was that his OL sucked.  The drops also hurt, but Josh was dealing as a passer last season despite his injury.  He also only rushed an average of one more time per game than he did in 2020.

 

For those who like the ESPN QBR rating:

 

2020 QBR: 76.6

2021 QBR:  60.7

2022 QBR:  71.4

 

Josh is most certainly continuing to improve as a QB.  If his pass-catchers actually do that this season he’ll be back to 2020 form (if not beyond).

 

[BADOLBILZ]

51 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Last year was closer to 2020 than 2021 for Josh, and the bottom line was that his OL sucked.  The drops also hurt, but Josh was dealing as a passer last season despite his injury.  He also only rushed an average of one more time per game than he did in 2020.

 

For those who like the ESPN QBR rating:

 

2020 QBR: 76.6

2021 QBR:  60.7

2022 QBR:  71.4

 

Josh is most certainly continuing to improve as a QB.  If his pass-catchers actually do that this season he’ll be back to 2020 form (if not beyond).

 

 

 

Having the ball-droppinest group of receivers is a major problem.   But the receiving corps struggles were more than that.    The staggering 40 point drop in QB rating when throwing from most targeted (Diggs 120.3) to second most targeted (Davis a woeful 80.8) is just untenable if you want to reach a SB.    

 

Nobody is saying the OL wasn't also mishandled.   Cutting Daryl Williams to give all of that savings to Rodger Saffold........then watching him be maybe the worst starting guard in football.......was a big issue.

 

And QBR is a fine stat but that formula of passing + rushing greatly reflects Allen putting himself in harms way on the ground to gain a lot of needed extra yards the past 2 seasons.

 

And the conversation you jumped into is just talking about the passing game in isolation.

 

No doubt Allen has really been pushing the envelope on the ground the past two years trying to do work they were doing in the passing game in 2020.   Allen has been trending toward rushing MORE and farther as the talent around him has declined.    You can dismiss it as once more per game........but that's over 20% more.    7 more sacks in 1 less game played between 2021-2022 was also concerning.   

 

Josh Allen rush attempts per game:

 

2020 6.4

2021  7.2

2022  7.8

 

 

[The Wiz]

 

[Robert Paulson]

8 hours ago, NewEra said:

I think shakir and Sherfield are definitely competing for snaps.  Not only vs each other, but vs Harty and Kincaid as well.  Sherfield is listed as outside…: but he was the starting slot for Miami last year.  He can definitely play inside.  He’s a much better blocker and so far in camp, has been a much more reliable pass catcher (if reports are true).

 

I’m on record as loving the shakir pick and the player.  That said- it’s time to put up or shut up.  There’s a chance he’s buried behind Kincaid- Harty and Sherfield in terms of snaps.  If he keeps dropping the ball, I’d rather we have Morris out there and run more 13 personnel.  Morris has been a standout and I think he’s a player.  
 

I don’t think shakir will get cut, but if his drops continue, I wouldn’t blame them for cutting him loose. A WR ain’t **** if his hands can’t be trusted.  

Cut him. I've seen enough.

[NewEra]

7 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

This is fair. Just have to hope it actually translates on the field as that slot WR and not another Mike Gesicki. 

And if we traded up for any of the WRs in this draft, it would be the same things.  We’d have to hope that they weren’t Kevin White.

 

Beane used his most valuable asset on a pass catcher

4 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

That's an interesting thought, but I think (as far as we can tell from what's public) that the buck stops with Beane for who is on the 53 man roster.

 

I'm not sure why you'd think that; there are only so many ways to construct a roster that both has sufficient personnel/depth at each primary position AND enough talent at ST.  I'm sure it's influenced by the coaches, but it's probably indirect.  For example, demanding to have a full rotation of talented players at all DL positions and enough depth at DB to play a 3-2-5 primary defense probably constrains those roster construction options.

I don’t believe that Beane would cut a player that McD wanted in order to keep a player that McD wanted to cut.  
 

There’s nothing that could convince me otherwise- other than them admitting that it happened in a particular instance.

 

 

 

[NewEra]

I’m really excited about our RBs this year.  It’s a very understated thunder and lightning threesome we have.  
 

Cook is going he be a star if he can improve his pass protection.  Murray is beyond capable, even at 33.  I think he’ll going to give Harris a run for RB2.  If he loses out, he’ll be in the rotation by week 4 when Harris inevitably gets injured 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

 

I don’t believe that Beane would cut a player that McD wanted in order to keep a player that McD wanted to cut.  
 

There’s nothing that could convince me otherwise- other than them admitting that it happened in a particular instance.

 

 

 

I agree.  Ultimately they agree.  Beane couldn't and wouldn't force McDermott to keep a player McD didn't want.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Beane used his most valuable asset on a pass catcher

I don’t believe that Beane would cut a player that McD wanted in order to keep a player that McD wanted to cut.  
 

There’s nothing that could convince me otherwise- other than them admitting that it happened in a particular instance.

 

Well, it has happened that Beane has moved a player McDermott wanted to keep at least for the season, and they have admitted it. ( I don't think Beane would try to keep a player McDermott wanted to cut though).  Beane has discussed McDermott not always agreeing with the moves that he made but after discussion, maybe not agreeing but understanding why he made the move he did.  I believe Marcell Dareus was one of the examples used.

 

I had a little look to see if I could find the interview and couldn't.

[Richard Noggin]

9 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

You can't exclude trading a #1 pick for a WR and say the Bills are opposite the rest of the league.  Its the exact opposite of the point you are trying to make. They invested a #1 pick on a WR. Makes no difference if it is a veteran or a rookie. 

 

It DOES make a difference. What the Bills pay Diggs over his first 5 years with the team and what they'd pay a 1st round WR over that same span is dramatically different.

 

(In the 1st year or two we'd want to assume the production is also fairly different, favoring the acquired vet, but then again, the actual production of that #22 pick since entering the league really drives home the potential value in drafting the player instead of trading for him.)

[Bills!Win!]

How long have the practices usually lasted? 

[JerseyBills]

Some of the best news is that Tre White appears to be back to his all pro self

[beerme1]

9 hours ago, Virgil said:

Whenever I go to a camp, it’s interesting to see how the starters act vs guys who have jobs locked up.   For example, you absolutely know Josh is our starting QB, even without seeing him throw.   It’s not a cocky thing, just how they interact and sometimes do their own thing.  
 

With that being said, Cook looks the part to me.  Murray did have a great day too, but Cook looks like a guy who knows he’s gonna be the man.  
 

Harry looks like a kid stole a jersey and snuck on the field in a bad Disney movie.  Dude is so tiny you worry he will get hurt.  
 

Shakir and Josh seem to have a pretty good relationship.  
 

Tons of swing passes and check down drills today.  

 

 

Didn't Beasley look so tiny that he would get hurt?

[snamsnoops]

40 minutes ago, Bills!Win! said:

How long have the practices usually lasted? 

30 days ..... or so!

 

[eball]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Having the ball-droppinest group of receivers is a major problem.   But the receiving corps struggles were more than that.    The staggering 40 point drop in QB rating when throwing from most targeted (Diggs 120.3) to second most targeted (Davis a woeful 80.8) is just untenable if you want to reach a SB.    

 

Nobody is saying the OL wasn't also mishandled.   Cutting Daryl Williams to give all of that savings to Rodger Saffold........then watching him be maybe the worst starting guard in football.......was a big issue.

 

And QBR is a fine stat but that formula of passing + rushing greatly reflects Allen putting himself in harms way on the ground to gain a lot of needed extra yards the past 2 seasons.

 

And the conversation you jumped into is just talking about the passing game in isolation.

 

No doubt Allen has really been pushing the envelope on the ground the past two years trying to do work they were doing in the passing game in 2020.   Allen has been trending toward rushing MORE and farther as the talent around him has declined.    You can dismiss it as once more per game........but that's over 20% more.    7 more sacks in 1 less game played between 2021-2022 was also concerning.   

 

Josh Allen rush attempts per game:

 

2020 6.4

2021  7.2

2022  7.8

 

 

 

I think you misunderstand me slightly.  Your comments suggest a continuing trend for Josh and I don’t think the stats support that.  I believe 2021 was the “bad” year and Josh rebounded quite a bit last season in the passing game despite the issues with his receivers and OL.  Those 1.4 more rush attempts from 2020 to 2022 aren’t necessarily because Josh wanted to run more…you could chalk that difference up to the horrid OL play and Josh needing to scramble.  The lack of a competent short yardage running game also meant Josh became the #1 option on 3rd/4th and short.

 

But getting back to passing stats.  Josh’s TD % went back up to 2020 levels last season and pretty much all of his numbers were better than they were in 2021.

 

I share your concern about Josh being placed in harm’s way, even though his two significant arm injuries haven’t been the result of his running.  If those rushing attempts per game don’t drop this season I’ll consider it a failure by Dorsey.  Josh’s running should be a weapon used judiciously and not a fall-back option.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

I think you misunderstand me slightly.  Your comments suggest a continuing trend for Josh and I don’t think the stats support that.  I believe 2021 was the “bad” year and Josh rebounded quite a bit last season in the passing game despite the issues with his receivers and OL.  Those 1.4 more rush attempts from 2020 to 2022 aren’t necessarily because Josh wanted to run more…you could chalk that difference up to the horrid OL play and Josh needing to scramble.  The lack of a competent short yardage running game also meant Josh became the #1 option on 3rd/4th and short.

 

But getting back to passing stats.  Josh’s TD % went back up to 2020 levels last season and pretty much all of his numbers were better than they were in 2021.

 

I share your concern about Josh being placed in harm’s way, even though his two significant arm injuries haven’t been the result of his running.  If those rushing attempts per game don’t drop this season I’ll consider it a failure by Dorsey.  Josh’s running should be a weapon used judiciously and not a fall-back option.

 

 

 

 

WRT the passing game..........the point is that the eye test shows that he's a better passer now, IMO,  and the numbers should reflect that.........but do not.

 

Some want to say it's just OL play but he was pressured 65 times in 2020 and "only" 41 in 2022.

 

The quality of the 2020 OL is a misty water-colored memory of fans.   The lasting impression should be what happened in the AFCCG.   Allen was pressured hard.   The fastball of the offense was the WR corps.........when that fell apart due to injury the OL got exposed.

 

As the Bills quick passing game options declined in 2021 and further declined in 2022 we saw Allen take more hits.   

[eball]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

WRT the passing game..........the point is that the eye test shows that he's a better passer now, IMO,  and the numbers should reflect that.........but do not.

 

Some want to say it's just OL play but he was pressured 65 times in 2020 and "only" 41 in 2022.

 

The quality of the 2020 OL is a misty water-colored memory of fans.   The lasting impression should be what happened in the AFCCG.   Allen was pressured hard.   The fastball of the offense was the WR corps.........when that fell apart due to injury the OL got exposed.

 

As the Bills quick passing game options declined in 2021 and further declined in 2022 we saw Allen take more hits.   

 

You do realize it’s possible we both have valid points….

 

[BADOLBILZ]

12 hours ago, eball said:

 

You do realize it’s possible we both have valid points….

 

 

 

Sure, but the argument you initiated was different from the one actually under discussion.   Which is what the old folks used to call a "straw man fallacy".

 

Nobody was saying that the OL has been good.

 

Yes there are some who think, in retrospect, that the 2020 OL was good........and that was the good ol' days of Bills OL play.  But as I pointed out.........that was not actually the case.  

 

The 2020 OL allowed a ton of pressure but the WR corps was top 3 that year and they had a dynamic quick passing game balanced with deep threats and even some YAC talent to cover for suspect starters like Brian Winters/Jon Feliciano/Ike Boettger on the OL.

 

When injuries took their toll on the WR corps in the playoffs..........the OL showed what they were made of.   Not much good.   Like the OL we've seen since the WR corps has gradually eroded.  

 

IMO the OL has never been good since Josh Allen has been a Bill.   But when they had a top 3 receiving group it didn't matter nearly as much.   

 

It's hard for some to accept the idea that a few WR can make an OL look better than it is.........but the Bengals reached a SB with a terrible OL..........primarily because they had 2 WR1 type receivers.     Which is basically the common denominator between the last 10 teams that have played in the SB.  

 

I think the stats that I've used to illustrate my point are pretty convincing.......moreso than a random example like "TD %".    There are more things WORSE about the Bills passing game since 2020 than there are those that are as good or better.   A lot of them, actually.   Do you deny that despite what the numbers(and the eyeball test) strongly/broadly indicate?    If not.......then I don't know what the point of your arguing about it is.

[eball]

17 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Sure, but <snip for brevity>

 

You again miss the point because you are incapable of doing anything other than self-aggrandizing.

 

2022 was better than 2021 for the Bills’ offense; they’re not on a downward spiral.  I’m not making any OL argument.  If you can’t accept that you’re just stubborn.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, eball said:

 

You again miss the point because you are incapable of doing anything other than self-aggrandizing.

 

2022 was better than 2021 for the Bills’ offense; they’re not on a downward spiral.  I’m not making any OL argument.  If you can’t accept that you’re just stubborn.

 

 

Again........you have created a bullish!t straw man argument simply because you don't like that the discussion was specifically about the passing offense.   

 

Who said the Bills 2022 offense wasn't better than the 2021 version?

 

But fwiw.........you are even wrong about that.

 

They averaged 28.4 points in both 2021 and 2022.

 

More consistent from game to game in the regular season, IMO.........but clearly not better.   You saw that team in the second half of the season and playoffs and thought that was BETTER?   Fans were pretty disappointed with the chaotic offense from November on......which  ultimately went down with a whimper against Cinci so I don't think you will get much agreement there.

 

As is often the case,  your arguments conflate two things that don't actually fit together.........like assuming that Allen's improvement in *some* passing stats from 2021 to 2022 meant that the offense as a whole was better.......when it was not. 

 

And you hyperbolized that the Bills offense was in a "downward spiral".......nobody said that either.......but the passing game has undeniably  declined notably since 2020 and it wasn't all better in 2022 than in 2021........especially in the red zone and wrt turnovers.

 

There isn't any passing game statistic where they have been as good or better than 2020.

 

Allen is having to run more, getting hit more, completing a significantly lower % of passes for less yards and TD's per attempt and throwing more interceptions and fumbling a lot more.    

 

 

    

Edited August 11, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[eball]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Again........you have <snip>

 

I give up.  You put words in my mouth I didn’t say, and you are incapable of having a discussion unless the other party praises your insight.  I really have tried, but it’s not worth my time.  Have a good one.