Augie Posted August 7, 2023 Posted August 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said: Damn you have unrealistic expectations. The vast majority of RB's drafted in the 3rd round never become consistent starters. Singletary was but in your world - "Bills FAILURE. Every 3rd round pick we draft should be major contributors and not be replaceable." You've already determined Williams and Bernard aren't NFL caliber? Below is the percentage by round of having a consistent starter. https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round 3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%) I know he doesn’t have breakaway speed, but Singletary can make guys miss and has a career 4.7 YPC. That ain’t too shabby and I don’t think he got enough credit during his time here. 2 2 Quote
Nextmanup Posted August 7, 2023 Posted August 7, 2023 11 hours ago, jwhit34 said: This data would indicate that McDermott does not hesitate to use rookies in meaningful roles in their first year. This statement is FAR too broad to reflect the data you have presented here. Define "rookie" (what round?); define "use" (what in the world does that mean? 1 play = used); what the hell is a "meaningful role" ??? Your data shows a guy like Epenesa, a highly touted, well received SECOND ROUNDER played a mere 27% of the time in his rookie season. That goes directly against your conclusion, for example. I'm guessing there is some serious confirmation bias going on here; you wanted to believe the notion that McDermott won't use rookies is false, you dug up the data, and you interpreted it to suit your liking with quite a few subjective opinions along the way. That isn't how statistics works. Quote
Dopey Posted August 7, 2023 Posted August 7, 2023 5 hours ago, BananaB said: While trying to prove one point you ignored another point. Seems like over the past few years the players are getting less time. Which is what most are saying. The players that started more early in McDs tenure had to start because they were basically rebuilding. We got alot out of those guys, they are the backbone of the team right now. Which proves getting them on the field helps their progression Lately guys are not getting on the field as much and there is alot of frustration with why we picked these guys because they ain’t helping the team. Especially with the high picks It's harder for a rookie to get a lot of playing time when the team that drafted him is pretty stacked with good, veteran players. I'm glad we're to the point where we don't have to count on rookies like we used to. Based on our success over the past few seasons, he knows what he's doing. Quote
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted August 7, 2023 Posted August 7, 2023 12 hours ago, jwhit34 said: It seems that it has been said so many times that Sean McDermott does not usually give substantial playing time to rookies that this is accepted as fact. I looked at the snap counts of all draft picks that made the roster in their rookie year from 2017-2022. Here is what I found, grouping by round: First Round Player # Snaps % Snaps T. White 1,093 99% J. Allen 719 68% T. Edmunds 926 91% E. Oliver 556 54% (most by a DT, only behind Hughes and Murphy on DL who had 64% and 65%) G. Rousseau 531 49% (3rd most behind Oliver and Hughes, 58% and 52%) K. Elam 477 45% (3rd behind D. Jackson and T. Johnson) 2nd Round Player # Snaps % Snaps Z. Jones 792 75% D. Dawkins 781 74% C. Ford 739 69% (5th on OL) A. Epenesa 291 27% B. Basham 201 19% J. Cook 269 25% 3rd Round Player # Snaps % Snaps H. Phillips 389 38% (3rd for DT behind K. Williams and Star) D. Singletary 530 50% (most by RB, Gore 2nd with 35%) D. Knox 646 60% (more than double any TE) Z. Moss 403 37% (2nd to Singletary) S. Brown 726 61% T. Bernard 110 11% 4th Round Player # Snaps % Snaps T. Johnson 405 40% (only behind White and Wallace) G. Davis 797 73% Notables - Rounds 5-7 Matt Milano (5th) played 41% of snaps but started last half of season Wyatt Teller (5th) played 45% of snaps and had 3rd highest # for guards Darryl Johnson (7th) played 22% of snaps Tyler Bass (6th) has been their kicker since his rookie year Dane Jackson (7th) played 18% of snaps Christian Benford (6tth) played 34% of snaps despite his injuries Conclusions: First rounders have all started their rookie year with Elam the only one that was a part time starter. 2nd rounders have played less as the team has gotten better. Bernard has been the only 3rd rounder who did not get significant playing time as a rookie. The 3rd round has been pretty good for them. Beane likes to trade his 4th round picks but given the success of Davis and Johnson maybe he should hang onto them more often. Rounds 5-7 you don't expect contributions right away but it seems just about every year they find someone who can get on the field. Opinion seems to be influenced by the last 2-3 draft classes. The reality is that as the team has gotten better it is more difficult for rookies to play a lot in their first year, it's not necessarily that the coaches don't want to play rookies. This data would indicate that McDermott does not hesitate to use rookies in meaningful roles in their first year. What wouldbe interesting to know too is how these numbers compare against league averages. My guess is you'd find pretty similar results. As stated better teams will likely play less rookies. 11 hours ago, Doc Brown said: My concern with Elam is the fact that McDermott usually does start his first round rookies their rookie season. The fact that he was benched for the corpse of Xavier Rhodes against the Pats last year was concerning. The fact that a fifth round rookie the same year split time with him last year is concerning. That he's not the clear cut starting CB opposite Tre White going into this year is concerning. If you can't tell I'm concerned. To me it looks like they drafted Elam based on physical traits and the little bit I've read recently sounds like coverage wise, he's like glue. But he may be taking longer than expected to absorb, understand, and put into action all the mental parts of the game so that is what has been holding him back. Could be too early last year he really struggled in these areas. Benford may be the opposite, doesn't have near the skill set of Elam but relies on instincts and is going to be steady, may not make the great play, but won't make the big mistake either. Jackson is maybe also more like Benford, doesn't have the physical still set, but also has 4 years under his belt so again even less likely to make the big mistake. Could be that McD feels there's enough talent out there surrounding the CB2 spot so doesn't need spectacular play there but is more worried about mistakes and big plays. Does sound too like Elam's closing the gap. Not too concerned with Benford playing more on Sunday either. Quote
Royale with Cheese Posted August 7, 2023 Posted August 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, Nextmanup said: This statement is FAR too broad to reflect the data you have presented here. Define "rookie" (what round?); define "use" (what in the world does that mean? 1 play = used); what the hell is a "meaningful role" ??? Your data shows a guy like Epenesa, a highly touted, well received SECOND ROUNDER played a mere 27% of the time in his rookie season. That goes directly against your conclusion, for example. I'm guessing there is some serious confirmation bias going on here; you wanted to believe the notion that McDermott won't use rookies is false, you dug up the data, and you interpreted it to suit your liking with quite a few subjective opinions along the way. That isn't how statistics works. Define rookie? A guy in his first year. There is a concrete definition. Define use? How much they are playing and top round rookies generally play. AJ Epenesa doesn't make your point strong unless you are saying that McDermott doesn't play 100% of top round rookies much. And no, the data is not manipulated or slanted. Those are concrete numbers. You are also forgetting that we've been drafting in the early to late 20's the last few years. We aren't getting the top end talent in these drafts. 1 1 1 Quote
GoBills808 Posted August 7, 2023 Posted August 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: Define rookie? A guy in his first year. There is a concrete definition. Define use? How much they are playing and top round rookies generally play. AJ Epenesa doesn't make your point strong unless you are saying that McDermott doesn't play 100% of top round rookies much. And no, the data is not manipulated or slanted. Those are concrete numbers. You are also forgetting that we've been drafting in the early to late 20's the last few years. We aren't getting the top end talent in these drafts. Imo they would be more instructive if compared to the rest of the league Elam and McDuffie for example are reasonable comps and he played basically 100% defense snaps when healthy Quote
Royale with Cheese Posted August 7, 2023 Posted August 7, 2023 1 minute ago, GoBills808 said: Imo they would be more instructive if compared to the rest of the league Elam and McDuffie for example are reasonable comps and he played basically 100% defense snaps when healthy Rest of the league and separated by where they were drafted. It wouldn't be fair to compare teams drafting between 20-32 every year with teams that draft in the top 10 consistently. Quote
GoBills808 Posted August 7, 2023 Posted August 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: Rest of the league and separated by where they were drafted. It wouldn't be fair to compare teams drafting between 20-32 every year with teams that draft in the top 10 consistently. No doubt that's why McDuffie was the one I thought of 1 Quote
Saxum Posted August 7, 2023 Posted August 7, 2023 3 hours ago, Beck Water said: I suspect that at the whiteboard and in the film room, Peterman is unmatched. He's still in the league, you know. 2 seasons with the Raiders, now in his 2nd season with the Bears. I call what Peterman must have, "Catnip for Coaches". Other than naughty pics of 3 different coaching staffs, there's no other explanation. He can probably learn a playbook and understand what the correct read is given the defense superfast and superwell - he just can't apparently do that in real time at regular season game speed, and his brain writes checks his noodle arm can't cash (as Fitzpatrick did at times). "Catnip for Coaches". Quote
Saxum Posted August 7, 2023 Posted August 7, 2023 22 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said: To me it looks like they drafted Elam based on physical traits and the little bit I've read recently sounds like coverage wise, he's like glue. But he may be taking longer than expected to absorb, understand, and put into action all the mental parts of the game so that is what has been holding him back. Could be too early last year he really struggled in these areas. In order to get most use of Elam they need to mix man-on-man and zone. Assign Elam to cover one player of offense and rest of DBs cover other QB targets. If Elam is as good as college he might be able to neutralize one opposing offense player. 1 Quote
Rigotz Posted August 7, 2023 Posted August 7, 2023 10 hours ago, jwhit34 said: It seems that it has been said so many times that Sean McDermott does not usually give substantial playing time to rookies that this is accepted as fact. I looked at the snap counts of all draft picks that made the roster in their rookie year from 2017-2022. Here is what I found, grouping by round: First Round Player # Snaps % Snaps T. White 1,093 99% J. Allen 719 68% T. Edmunds 926 91% E. Oliver 556 54% (most by a DT, only behind Hughes and Murphy on DL who had 64% and 65%) G. Rousseau 531 49% (3rd most behind Oliver and Hughes, 58% and 52%) K. Elam 477 45% (3rd behind D. Jackson and T. Johnson) 2nd Round Player # Snaps % Snaps Z. Jones 792 75% D. Dawkins 781 74% C. Ford 739 69% (5th on OL) A. Epenesa 291 27% B. Basham 201 19% J. Cook 269 25% 3rd Round Player # Snaps % Snaps H. Phillips 389 38% (3rd for DT behind K. Williams and Star) D. Singletary 530 50% (most by RB, Gore 2nd with 35%) D. Knox 646 60% (more than double any TE) Z. Moss 403 37% (2nd to Singletary) S. Brown 726 61% T. Bernard 110 11% 4th Round Player # Snaps % Snaps T. Johnson 405 40% (only behind White and Wallace) G. Davis 797 73% Notables - Rounds 5-7 Matt Milano (5th) played 41% of snaps but started last half of season Wyatt Teller (5th) played 45% of snaps and had 3rd highest # for guards Darryl Johnson (7th) played 22% of snaps Tyler Bass (6th) has been their kicker since his rookie year Dane Jackson (7th) played 18% of snaps Christian Benford (6tth) played 34% of snaps despite his injuries Conclusions: First rounders have all started their rookie year with Elam the only one that was a part time starter. 2nd rounders have played less as the team has gotten better. Bernard has been the only 3rd rounder who did not get significant playing time as a rookie. The 3rd round has been pretty good for them. Beane likes to trade his 4th round picks but given the success of Davis and Johnson maybe he should hang onto them more often. Rounds 5-7 you don't expect contributions right away but it seems just about every year they find someone who can get on the field. Opinion seems to be influenced by the last 2-3 draft classes. The reality is that as the team has gotten better it is more difficult for rookies to play a lot in their first year, it's not necessarily that the coaches don't want to play rookies. This data would indicate that McDermott does not hesitate to use rookies in meaningful roles in their first year. Excellent work and thank you for posting this. That's all I have to say. I've been thinking anecdotally that I remember many early round picks playing, but this officially debunks the false narrative that McDermott and Beane are slow to introduce rookies to the lineup. Quote
Doc Brown Posted August 7, 2023 Posted August 7, 2023 1 hour ago, NewEra said: He was a strict press man corner in college. Played little zone. He was basically learning a different position and play style while playing behind a vet and equal to another rookie corner that had only played zone. I understand why he didn’t play full time last season based on those facts alone. This year is a different story. I really hope he can get acclimated by the playoffs and be our starter going forward. I like Benford and Jackson—— but their lack of speed could be a detriment to our D- especially in our division They trusted him enough in the playoffs though and J just assumed based off his good play he’d be the shoo in cb2 this year. It’s perplexing. 2 Quote
Einstein Posted August 7, 2023 Posted August 7, 2023 13 hours ago, jwhit34 said: It seems that it has been said so many times that Sean McDermott does not usually give substantial playing time to rookies that this is accepted as fact. I looked at the snap counts of all draft picks that made the roster in their rookie year from 2017-2022. Here is what I found, grouping by round: First Round Player # Snaps % Snaps T. White 1,093 99% J. Allen 719 68% T. Edmunds 926 91% E. Oliver 556 54% (most by a DT, only behind Hughes and Murphy on DL who had 64% and 65%) G. Rousseau 531 49% (3rd most behind Oliver and Hughes, 58% and 52%) K. Elam 477 45% (3rd behind D. Jackson and T. Johnson) 2nd Round Player # Snaps % Snaps Z. Jones 792 75% D. Dawkins 781 74% C. Ford 739 69% (5th on OL) A. Epenesa 291 27% B. Basham 201 19% J. Cook 269 25% 3rd Round Player # Snaps % Snaps H. Phillips 389 38% (3rd for DT behind K. Williams and Star) D. Singletary 530 50% (most by RB, Gore 2nd with 35%) D. Knox 646 60% (more than double any TE) Z. Moss 403 37% (2nd to Singletary) S. Brown 726 61% T. Bernard 110 11% 4th Round Player # Snaps % Snaps T. Johnson 405 40% (only behind White and Wallace) G. Davis 797 73% Opinion seems to be influenced by the last 2-3 draft classes. The reality is that as the team has gotten better it is more difficult for rookies to play a lot in their first year, it's not necessarily that the coaches don't want to play rookies. Assuming your data is correct, this also shows that there is little correlation between the round we draft a player and their rookie play time. Plugging your data into a regression analysis: We receive a summary output of: The coeffecient obviously has no practical meaning in this context, however the F-stat of 1.8 with a p-value of 0.2 shows that the regression model is not statistically significant at a 0.05 significance level. The r square backs this up with only 9.09% of the variation in the playing time explained by the round drafted. In other words the draft round does not account for a significant portion of the variation observed in the percentage of snaps played by rookies. This coaching staff is just as likely to start a 5th rounder as a 2nd rounder. Quote Opinion seems to be influenced by the last 2-3 draft classes. The reality is that as the team has gotten better it is more difficult for rookies to play a lot in their first year, it's not necessarily that the coaches don't want to play rookies. 3 draft classes is 50% of Beane's draft classes. That is a significant number. This could be re-hypothesized as "Opinion seems to be influenced by the last 3 draft classes. The reality is that our draft choices have not been as strong in recent years." Quote
DrDawkinstein Posted August 7, 2023 Posted August 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Nextmanup said: This statement is FAR too broad to reflect the data you have presented here. Define "rookie" (what round?); define "use" (what in the world does that mean? 1 play = used); what the hell is a "meaningful role" ??? Your data shows a guy like Epenesa, a highly touted, well received SECOND ROUNDER played a mere 27% of the time in his rookie season. That goes directly against your conclusion, for example. I'm guessing there is some serious confirmation bias going on here; you wanted to believe the notion that McDermott won't use rookies is false, you dug up the data, and you interpreted it to suit your liking with quite a few subjective opinions along the way. That isn't how statistics works. Well it kind is. Like the old saying goes "anyone with half a brain can make any statistic say anything they want". Also, the ol "lies, damned lies, and statistics". But I do appreciate OPs efforts. Quote
PBF81 Posted August 7, 2023 Posted August 7, 2023 43 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Is this referring to the benching of Tyrod in San Diego or the decision to start him week 1 of 2018? If the former then that DEFINITELY isn't true. It was actually Rick Dennison who initiated it. He was frustrated with Tyrod not running the scheme as designed and convinced McDermott that the offense would be more productive with someone who just "runs it as I call it." I believe it is true that the general feeling on the staff even then was "this is a mistake" but the offense had fallen into a bit of a hole with Tyrod and they went with it. I think it probably contributed to Dennison's firing after one year. McDermott owned the mistake, but the initiating of that decision was Rico. Equally I was told in 2018 that starting Peterman was 100% not Brian Daboll's doing, so if you meant that occasion you may well be right. There were even some in the building who think he called plays he knew Peterman couldn't complete in that first half in Baltimore to get Josh Allen on the field. Not sure, again, I know I read it somewhere, not sure the particular instances. We do know, via his own statements, that he was a lot more confident in Peterman than pretty much anyone else. Whether there was in fact an individual out there somewhere, or more than one, that also shared that rosy outlook I obviously cannot say. Simply stating what I read about that somewhat after the fact. And again, and what some of the pieces in the links below also state, why McD thought that Peterman was better than Taylor is mindboggling as well. A couple of quick pieces on the topic that turned up per a quick google as a refresher: https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/football/nfl/bills/2018/07/19/buffalo-bills-sean-mcdermott-brandon-beane-nathan-peterman-tyrod-taylor-los-angeles-chargers-nfl/790696002/ https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2018/10/sean_mcdermott_still_confidant_in_nathan_peterman_after_another_disaster.html "I understand the fans and that sentiment, but at the same time I have to do what we feel is best for the football team going forward," McDermott said. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/sean-mcdermott-needs-to-look-at-the-tape-before-deciding-whether-nathan-peterman-should-be-benched/ https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2017/11/sean-mcdermott-starting-nathan-peterman-wasnt-necessarily-a-bad-idea.html https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/09/nfl-buffalo-bills-sean-mcdermott-nathan-peterman-josh-allen https://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/11/nfl-bills-sean-mcdermott-nathan-peterman-tyrod-taylor Quote
NewEra Posted August 7, 2023 Posted August 7, 2023 Just when I thought he was gone for good 😢 1 Quote
GunnerBill Posted August 7, 2023 Posted August 7, 2023 26 minutes ago, PBF81 said: Not sure, again, I know I read it somewhere, not sure the particular instances. We do know, via his own statements, that he was a lot more confident in Peterman than pretty much anyone else. Whether there was in fact an individual out there somewhere, or more than one, that also shared that rosy outlook I obviously cannot say. Simply stating what I read about that somewhat after the fact. And again, and what some of the pieces in the links below also state, why McD thought that Peterman was better than Taylor is mindboggling as well. A couple of quick pieces on the topic that turned up per a quick google as a refresher: https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/football/nfl/bills/2018/07/19/buffalo-bills-sean-mcdermott-brandon-beane-nathan-peterman-tyrod-taylor-los-angeles-chargers-nfl/790696002/ https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2018/10/sean_mcdermott_still_confidant_in_nathan_peterman_after_another_disaster.html "I understand the fans and that sentiment, but at the same time I have to do what we feel is best for the football team going forward," McDermott said. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/sean-mcdermott-needs-to-look-at-the-tape-before-deciding-whether-nathan-peterman-should-be-benched/ https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2017/11/sean-mcdermott-starting-nathan-peterman-wasnt-necessarily-a-bad-idea.html https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/09/nfl-buffalo-bills-sean-mcdermott-nathan-peterman-josh-allen https://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/11/nfl-bills-sean-mcdermott-nathan-peterman-tyrod-taylor Well I am telling you for a fact that Dennison lobbied for the 2017 switch. I don't know for definite what happened in 2018. I was told Daboll wanted to start Josh and there were people in the building who felt he intentionally exposed Peterman (rather than giving him a babying gameplan to hide his flaws) but that was from a far less reputable source then the Dennison information which I would stake my reputation on being true. Quote
folz Posted August 7, 2023 Posted August 7, 2023 (edited) Another factor, which I actually really like with Sean's staff, is that players have to earn their playing time. It's not that McD won't play rookies, but you have to earn that playing time first. You don't get gifted a starting spot just because you were a first or second rounder or have a higher salary...you have to actually beat out (play better) than any vets or other players ahead of you. Like at the start of camp, etc, the vet/incumbent always gets the first crack at it (at least out of respect) and then they mix in the younger guy, and if he is better, he'll eventually take over. But he has to earn it. It just may take some rookies longer to earn playing time or a starting spot than others. I think this really matters in the locker room (with the vets), team chemistry, confidence in who's on the field, etc. And as others have mentioned (in regard to rookies), you have to realize that now that we are a very talented team across the board: 1. It is harder for young guys to crack the starting lineup, and 2. we are now drafting at the bottom of the draft. It is not a guarantee, but the odds are you'll hit more often with guys drafting say 7-16 than you will drafting 23-30. The lower you go in the draft, the harder it is to find guys that are ready to just step right in to a starting role. Also, it seems that Beane likes to take some shots early in the draft. Rather than take the guy who you kind of know his ceiling and he'll be a good/solid player, reach for the guy with untapped potential and more elite measurables and hope you can coach him up into a higher-end player. It's a bit of a boom or bust strategy maybe, but to me it looks like all of Beane's 1st rounders, except for Kincaid, fit that mold. We'll see if that strategy pans out in the long run and/or if he sticks with it, but the fact is that some of these rookies needed a lot more coaching and experience to reach their potential than other more pro-ready players---which obviously would affect their rookie playing time as well. Edited August 7, 2023 by folz Quote
Beck Water Posted August 7, 2023 Posted August 7, 2023 4 hours ago, mrags said: All I get out of this is that they should just trade their 3rd round picks. Knox and Brown are the only ones worth a damn. Singletary was about as average as it gets for a RB. The true definition of replaceable. And in the last 2 years they’ve managed to draft players into the LB role that are definitely not NFL caliber LBs. They drafted for need both times and neither is going to do anything in this league. Glad to know you can predict their future already. Got any stock picks or lottery numbers? 1 2 Quote
Buffalo716 Posted August 7, 2023 Posted August 7, 2023 31 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Well I am telling you for a fact that Dennison lobbied for the 2017 switch. I don't know for definite what happened in 2018. I was told Daboll wanted to start Josh and there were people in the building who felt he intentionally exposed Peterman (rather than giving him a babying gameplan to hide his flaws) but that was from a far less reputable source then the Dennison information which I would stake my reputation on being true. You Can't intentionally expose Nathan Peterman That means there was something good there in the first spot ... Like he was masking being good He had a long way to becoming an NFL backup... Let alone a guy who could start Not a strong arm , not very mobile, panicks under pressure ... Doesn't see the field But the bills had a weak receiving core and a weak line ... From a franchise perspective It's much better to trot out the weak link and let him take the lumps ... Instead of throwing your #1 pick to the wolves.. at least to start the year QB is absolutely the one position that sitting and learning won't hurt and getting thrown to the fire can ruin you ... The problem is fans in Buffalo would have revolted if they continued to start Peterman ... He wasn't even backup level.. an embarrassment If we trotted out Fitzpatrick for a year.. Josh absolutely could have learned from the bench But he had to learn on the fly which is a lot harder... It is sink or swim If you swim through all that muck you will come out great .. only problem Most quarterbacks who get thrown to the fire on bad teams have their growth stunted ... Taking 50 sacks a year and clobbered does a number David Carr... Coming out was much better than Derek as a prospect... But he took 65 sacks a year and got shell shocked The NFL IS ALL ABOUT SITUATIONS 1 Quote
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