Rookie Playing Time in McDermott Era

[co_springs_billsfan]

8 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

It seems that it has been said so many times that Sean McDermott does not usually give substantial playing time to rookies that this is accepted as fact. I looked at the snap counts of all draft picks that made the roster in their rookie year from 2017-2022. Here is what I found, grouping by round:

 

First Round

Player                          # Snaps          % Snaps

T. White                     1,093                  99%

J. Allen                          719                  68%

T. Edmunds                  926                  91%

E. Oliver                        556                  54% (most by a DT, only behind Hughes and Murphy on DL who had 64% and 65%)

G. Rousseau                 531                  49% (3rd most behind Oliver and Hughes, 58% and 52%)

K. Elam                         477                  45% (3rd behind D. Jackson and T. Johnson)

 

2nd Round

Player                          # Snaps          % Snaps

Z. Jones                      792                    75%

D. Dawkins                  781                    74%

C. Ford                        739                    69%  (5th on OL)

A. Epenesa                 291                     27%

B. Basham                   201                    19%

J. Cook                        269                    25%

 

3rd Round

Player                           # Snaps             % Snaps

H. Phillips                    389                    38% (3rd for DT behind K. Williams and Star)

D. Singletary               530                     50% (most by RB, Gore 2nd with 35%)

D. Knox                        646                     60% (more than double any TE)

Z. Moss                        403                     37% (2nd to Singletary)

S. Brown                       726                     61%

T. Bernard                    110                       11%

 

4th Round

Player                             # Snaps               % Snaps

T. Johnson                    405                    40% (only behind White and Wallace)

G. Davis                         797                     73%

 

Notables - Rounds 5-7

Matt Milano  (5th) played 41% of snaps but started last half of season

Wyatt Teller (5th) played 45% of snaps and had 3rd highest # for guards

Darryl Johnson (7th) played 22% of snaps

Tyler Bass (6th) has been their kicker since his rookie year

Dane Jackson (7th) played 18% of snaps

Christian Benford (6tth) played 34% of snaps despite his injuries 

 

Conclusions:

• First rounders have all started their rookie year with Elam the only one that was a part time starter.
• 2nd rounders have played less as the team has gotten better.
• Bernard has been the only 3rd rounder who did not get significant playing time as a rookie. The 3rd round has been pretty good for them. 
• Beane likes to trade his 4th round picks but given the success of Davis and Johnson maybe he should hang onto them more often.
• Rounds 5-7 you don't expect contributions right away but it seems just about every year they find someone who can get on the field.
• Opinion seems to be influenced by the last 2-3 draft classes. The reality is that as the team has gotten better it is more difficult for rookies to play a lot in their first year, it's not necessarily that the coaches don't want to play rookies.                 

 

This data would indicate that McDermott does not hesitate to use rookies in meaningful roles in their first year. 

 

 

Thanks for the research!  I think it would be interesting to compare it to what the league average was for those rounds/years

[Mr. WEO]

5 threads just fell off page 1

[Don Otreply]

I have always looked at this on a case by case circumstance, blanket statements generally go awry…, 

 

[Augie]

24 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

I have always looked at this on a case by case circumstance, blanket statements generally go awry…, 

 

 

In all areas of life. 

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, BananaB said:

Dude look at your post, the top two rounds are in a decline. 

 

The top 2 rounds of last year?  That's your proof?

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Excellent data.

A few caveats though...

Allen didn't start right away. Somehow this coach thought it better to start Peterman. I don't for one second believe he thought Peterman was better. I think he was of the mindset to let Allen sit and learn as many coaches do with young QBs. But because Peterman was trash he was forced to play Allen.

Edmunds, White, Dawkins, Oliver, and Knox all started because there were literally no other options. Bills got rid of the previous starters and did nothing in free agency to replace them. They were all good need picks by Beane except Oliver which I still hate that pick. 

Oliver started but was relegated to second string mid-season. He always seems to look good in camp and then rarely makes plays during the season.

 

So there's no mysterious "somehow" about it.  Allen was far from ready. 

 

Peterman had a great preseason - we all saw it.  At the slower pace and lower defensive quality of preseason games, he was making all the reads and enough of the throws.  And don't overlook that Daboll likely had a learning curve as our OC. 

 

I suspect that at the whiteboard and in the film room, Peterman is unmatched.  He's still in the league, you know. 2 seasons with the Raiders, now in his 2nd season with the Bears.  I call what Peterman must have, "Catnip for Coaches".  Other than naughty pics of 3 different coaching staffs, there's no other explanation.  He can probably learn a playbook and understand what the correct read is given the defense superfast and superwell - he just can't apparently do that in real time at regular season game speed, and his brain writes checks his noodle arm can't cash (as Fitzpatrick did at times).

 

Then, people act like Allen came in all ready to be coachable and succeed.  If one pays attention to various things that were said about him by Bohl (his coach at Wyoming) and even stories Allen himself tells - that isn't the case.  Allen was hard-headed and would sometimes ignore coaching to do what he thought best, with disasterous results at times.  Allen told a story about Daboll in one of his rookie training camp practices.  The play call was he was supposed to throw to the running back in the flat.  Instead he threw to the back corner of the endzone and "it didn't go too well" (it was picked).  Daboll was furious and started yelling in Allen's headset.  Allen came to the sideline and took his helmet off and Daboll came over and was still yelling.  Went away, calmed down, thought it over some more and came back and yelled.  And there was still yelling from Daboll going on the sidelines into 2019.  This is Allen's story!  He has also said he is embarrassed now to realize how little he knew about the Bills protections at that time.  Eric Wood on one show intimated that between the Vikes game and the Green Bay game, Allen wasn't focused on a proper week of preparation. 

One of the reasons McDermott will absolutely bench rookies, or not start rookies, is if they aren't "being coachable" - listening to the coaches, following their assignment as laid out in the play call, taking direction about needed changes in technique.  These are young, high-testosterone males who have suddenly become wealthy beyond most people's dreams, including most of the coaches and coaching assistants.  And like Allen, some of them have succeeded against all odds, and sometimes they did so by "tuning out the noise" (including coaching) and following their own path.  It's no surprise that sometimes it's tough for the coaches to get their attention. 

One of the only tools the coaches have to get their attention, is to say "you're gonna sit and watch until you're ready to listen and learn".   These guys love ball, and it hurts them to sit and watch, especially if they think they could do it better (and as Talley said, if you don't have an ego you don't belong on the field). And yeah, Allen tore his UCL his rookie season, but I think he was kept on the bench a bit longer than he could have been, because they wanted him to watch and learn how to prepare properly and get into a proper routine as demonstrated by Anderson and Barkley.  Did the FO totally mishandle the QB room in 2018, and did the coaches tremendously mis-evaluate whether Peterman could start?  Yeah, they did.  There should have been an experienced vet in there from the start.

 

With Elam, it was pretty much spelled out that the reason he was benched during his rookie year was freelancing and seeking picks at the expense of his assignment.  One of the Athletic guys did a feature.

 

With Cook, it wasn't just the fumble.  McDermott said about him in a presser, something to the effect of "he's starting to learn that what you practice, carries over into the game.  Very seldom does it happen that you play well after practicing differently".  If that wasn't pointed I don't know what is.

 

Edited August 7, 2023 by Beck Water

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

Jury's still out on Cook too.  

 

 

 

Not in my courtroom.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, BananaB said:

While trying to prove one point you ignored another point. Seems like over the past few years the players are getting less time. Which is what most are saying. The players that started more early in McDs tenure had to start because they were basically rebuilding. We got alot out of those guys, they are the backbone of the team right now. Which proves getting them on the field helps their progression Lately guys are not getting on the field as much and there is alot of frustration with why we picked these guys because they ain’t helping the team. Especially with the high picks

 

 

You seriously misunderstand - or misuse - the word "prove." It doesn't come anywhere even vaguely close to proving that getting them on the field helps their progression. That is probably what you'd like it to prove, and so it's the first and only explanation that occurs to you. But that only shows your confirmation bias.

 

Just as likely, probably more so, is that the guys who they considered ready to start were in fact more ready to start and that that had a ton to do with why many of them are still playing and well. They were better players (several, such as Allen, Edmunds and Oliver, were picked much earlier than the folks we are now choosing around the mid-twenties) and were further competing against a less competitive roster with weaker players in their first year or two.

 

You also happily ignore the counter-examples like Cody Ford and Zay Jones, who played a lot early but are very much not the backbone of the team now.

 

Lately guys are getting on the field a bit less. But still getting on the field. Whether some fans are frustrated about this is completely unimportant. Irrelevant, really. The important thing is the futures those players put up.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Don Otreply said:

I have always looked at this on a case by case circumstance, blanket statements generally go awry…, 

 

 

1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

In all areas of life. 

 

 

Pre ... cisely.

[mrags]

All I get out of this is that they should just trade their 3rd round picks. Knox and Brown are the only ones worth a damn. Singletary was about as average as it gets for a RB. The true definition of replaceable. And in the last 2 years they’ve managed to draft players into the LB role that are definitely not NFL caliber LBs. They drafted for need both times and neither is going to do anything in this league. 

[Don Otreply]

2 minutes ago, mrags said:

All I get out of this is that they should just trade their 3rd round picks. Knox and Brown are the only ones worth a damn. Singletary was about as average as it gets for a RB. The true definition of replaceable. And in the last 2 years they’ve managed to draft players into the LB role that are definitely not NFL caliber LBs. They drafted for need both times and neither is going to do anything in this league. 

Don’t mince words with us, tell us what you really think…, 

[Royale with Cheese]

7 minutes ago, mrags said:

All I get out of this is that they should just trade their 3rd round picks. Knox and Brown are the only ones worth a damn. Singletary was about as average as it gets for a RB. The true definition of replaceable. And in the last 2 years they’ve managed to draft players into the LB role that are definitely not NFL caliber LBs. They drafted for need both times and neither is going to do anything in this league. 

 

Damn you have unrealistic expectations.

 

The vast majority of RB's drafted in the 3rd round never become consistent starters.  Singletary was but in your world - "Bills FAILURE.  Every 3rd round pick we draft should be major contributors and not be replaceable."

 

You've already determined Williams and Bernard aren't NFL caliber?  

 

Below is the percentage by round of having a consistent starter.  

 

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

 

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, mrags said:

All I get out of this is that they should just trade their 3rd round picks. Knox and Brown are the only ones worth a damn. Singletary was about as average as it gets for a RB. The true definition of replaceable. And in the last 2 years they’ve managed to draft players into the LB role that are definitely not NFL caliber LBs. They drafted for need both times and neither is going to do anything in this league. 

 

Think it is early to call that on Williams. A more legit criticism of that pick is that they knew when they drafted him he was a WILL in their system... and their current WILL is one of their best players. I think Williams has a chance to be an NFL player. Bernard, however..... I agree with your analysis. 

[Royale with Cheese]

16 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Don’t mince words with us, tell us what you really think…, 

 

This is what he said about Bernard just one year ago.  

 

Edited August 7, 2023 by Royale with Cheese

[Buftex]

I do believe that all the pre-season games are broadcast live on NFL+.  Not the case for the regular season, but in the preseason only.

 

If you don't have NFL+, NFL Network will show the game at 7am eastern Sunday Morning (Aug.13), and again Wednesday (Aug. 16th) at 4pm eastern.

 

Personally, Saturday games suck for me, so though I will watch, it won't be live. 

[GoBills808]

ty for the research👍

 

would be interesting to see how this compares to league averages

[hondo in seattle]

10 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

My concern with Elam is the fact that McDermott usually does start his first round rookies their rookie season.  The fact that he was benched for the corpse of Xavier Rhodes against the Pats last year was concerning.  The fact that a fifth round rookie the same year split time with him last year is concerning.  That he's not the clear cut starting CB opposite Tre White going into this year is concerning.  If you can't tell I'm concerned.

 

I have the same concern.

But I remind myself that we drafted a man-coverage CB for a zone defense.  There's bound to be a learning curve.  

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

I suspect that at the whiteboard and in the film room, Peterman is unmatched. 

 

LOL   Could be.   He's got nearly three times a many INTs as he does starts.  His career rating is 39.4 and his respective ratings in Buffalo, Las Vegas, and Chicago are 32.5, 72.9, and 68.6.  Whatever's in his head ain't even approaching translating to the field as you say.  

 

 

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

He's still in the league, you know. 2 seasons with the Raiders, now in his 2nd season with the Bears. 

 

So are Tim Boyle, Kyle Trask, Chris Streveler, Jeff Driskel, David Blough, and John Wolford. son of Will BTW.  He's right in their company, perhaps even low-end for them.  I'm not sure that it's all that unusual for those types of QBs to be around.  Once they hit 30 or so they tend to disappear as more "nothing QBs" that are younger have entered the league.  Looking at QBs 30+, I can't find one of that caliber around that took any snaps last season.  It would be very odd to see a QB like that around at the age of say 35.  I can't imagine he'll be on anyone's roster much longer.  

 

 

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

I call what Peterman must have, "Catnip for Coaches".  Other than naughty pics of 3 different coaching staffs, there's no other explanation.  He can probably learn a playbook and understand what the correct read is given the defense superfast and superwell - he just can't apparently do that in real time at regular season game speed, and his brain writes checks his noodle arm can't cash (as Fitzpatrick did at times).

 

LOL  It is and was somewhat perplexing.  I remember reading somewhere that McD was on an island re: the Peterman decision, no one else on the staff supported it.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

LOL  It is and was somewhat perplexing.  I remember reading somewhere that McD was on an island re: the Peterman decision, no one else on the staff supported it.  

 

 

Is this referring to the benching of Tyrod in San Diego or the decision to start him week 1 of 2018? If the former then that DEFINITELY isn't true. It was actually Rick Dennison who initiated it. He was frustrated with Tyrod not running the scheme as designed and convinced McDermott that the offense would be more productive with someone who just "runs it as I call it." I believe it is true that the general feeling on the staff even then was "this is a mistake" but the offense had fallen into a bit of a hole with Tyrod and they went with it. I think it probably contributed to Dennison's firing after one year. McDermott owned the mistake, but the initiating of that decision was Rico. 

 

Equally I was told in 2018 that starting Peterman was 100% not Brian Daboll's doing, so if you meant that occasion you may well be right. There were even some in the building who think he called plays he knew Peterman couldn't complete in that first half in Baltimore to get Josh Allen on the field. 

Edited August 7, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

great post ty

[NewEra]

11 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

My concern with Elam is the fact that McDermott usually does start his first round rookies their rookie season.  The fact that he was benched for the corpse of Xavier Rhodes against the Pats last year was concerning.  The fact that a fifth round rookie the same year split time with him last year is concerning.  That he's not the clear cut starting CB opposite Tre White going into this year is concerning.  If you can't tell I'm concerned.

He was a strict press man corner in college.  Played little zone.  He was basically learning a different position and play style while playing behind a vet and equal to another rookie corner that had only played zone.  
 

I understand why he didn’t play full time last season based on those facts alone.  This year is a different story.  I really hope he can get acclimated by the playoffs and be our starter going forward.  I like Benford and Jackson—— but their lack of speed could be a detriment to our D- especially in our division