Elam the Next Teller?

[Sierra Foothills]

Just now, Luka said:

... Make excuses for the shoddy job this coaching staff does in evaluating and utilizing talent all you like, there's a reason we haven't overcome the Chiefs to win it all, and it's usually clapping for no reason.

 

 

I laughed my ass off... 

[Chaos]

9 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Elam didn't start because he didn't execute as well as the others in games

That is less apparent to others than you.  And developing young talent needs to be factored into play time too. 

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, Chaos said:

That is less apparent to others than you.  And developing young talent needs to be factored into play time too. 

No, no, no.   The Bills are very public about the extent to which they grade people.  Every player is graded every day.  How they play on the field is graded in minute detail.  McDermott has been very clear, over and over, that the guy who plays the best plays, regardless of his draft position.   And no, he does NOT play guys in real games so that they can develop.  Practice is for developing, games are for winning.  So, yes, it may be less apparent to you, but that's just because you're not paying attention.    The guy who does the job best plays, period.  That's the way it works on almost every team, from pee wees up to the NFL.  

[Shaw66]

9 minutes ago, Luka said:

 

But as a corner your NUMBER ONE job is to cover the receiver. Allowing a couple extra yards on a run is a lot different than giving up chunk yardage down the field. Corner that can cover >>>> corner that can play the run. Make excuses for the shoddy job this coaching staff does in evaluating and utilizing talent all you like, there's a reason we haven't overcome the Chiefs to win it all, and it's usually clapping for no reason.

 

That's you talking.  That's not McDermott.   On this team, as on every other team, your job is to do your job, the whole job, not just part of the job.   The players get graded on how well they do the whole job.  Elam hasn't played because he doesn't do the whole job as well as the other guys.  Simple as that.   Even if covering the receiver is the most important part of the job, even if grading is weighted to reflect that, which it probably is, Elam is not grading out better than the other guys.   That's why he isn't playing.  That's why Epenesa isn't a starter, no matter how good he may have been in college.   That's why Cody Ford didn't start.    That's why Cook didn't get significant snaps the first half of the last season.   Somehow, because you have some love affair going with Elam, you think Elam should start even though he isn't the best at the position.   

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

BTW, other than Edmunds, here have been our draft picks for LB since Edmunds in 1018.  

 

Vosean Joseph:  5th round 

Bernard:  Late 3rd 2022 

Spector:  7th 2022 

Williams:  Late 3rd 2023  

 

Bernard with the hopes of playing MLB.  

 

 

Have you ever known Beane to leave a position of need ignored?   Ever?   He needed guards this year, and he got them.   He need corners last year, and he got them.   He need edge rushers starting about three years ago, and he got them, in spades.  Beane ALWAYS fills needs.   

 

So you know what your list of drafted linebackers, and the list of free agent linebackers signed, means?  It means that Beane and McDermott do not think that MLB is a position of need, that they think they have the guys they need to play the position.   

 

You actually seem to believe that all the linebackers, other than Milano, suck, and that somehow McDermott and Beane haven't noticed?   Don't you see how unrealistic that is?  Their linebackers DON'T suck, or they would have gone out and gotten someone. 

[Royale with Cheese]

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

I'm saying that factors heavily into the decision.  

 

For starters, has it been Frazier's D and his decisions, or McD's D and his decisions?  

 

If the latter, why the sudden change from his time in Carolina and our first three seasons here, to this, and only when the talent lacks to play that more classic 4-3?  

 

 

 

Well, I think it does make sense.  LOL  

 

Nothing has stopped them from throwing resources at other positions on D, so why haven't they at LB knowing that Edmunds was gone?  late 3rd-rounders aren't those resources.  MLB is a pretty big hole.  And if it's been their plan all along to play devoid of a classic MLB, then why did they draft Edmunds back then.  

 

If it's been there plan to play a 2 LB set featuring only a MLB and WLB (Milano), why throw good money at Floyd?  

 

It doesn't add up that "this was the plan all along."  

 

We'll disagree as to any notion that starts translate to how good a player is.  None of our CBs last year were any better than average and I'm not even sure that any even played consistently to average levels.  Yet they started.  Lotulolei started many games, he sucked.  Any number of players that started here were not average.  While I disagree, the majority sentiment is that Davis is a below-average starter here.  Just sayin'.  

 

 

 

Yes, so I do keep open the possibility that it's all planned, but the disconnects mentioned above seem to indicate that it was not, that again, it's more reacting to a situation that good or effective planning.  

 

We'll find out a good many things this season.  McD's finally in charge of the D, no more potential scapegoats there.  Dorsey's in his second season.  We've finally drafted a seemingly solid IOL/OG in Torrence.  

 

If the lack of a bona fide MLB hurts us, it'll be a clue.  If the OL is still below average or average at best, then that will provide more info.  etc.  

 

We'll see how it shakes out.  Hopefully just about 6 months from now exactly, we'll be discussing how we won the Super Bowl.     If so, who cares, this is all then water under the bridge.  

 

 

If they wanted to run more traditional 4-3, they would put resources towards it but they don’t.  Does this stat mean that every single NFL team doesn’t have 3 good LB?  As an entire league, defenses aren’t in base 4-3 80% of the time.  Do you honestly still think that makes sense?  

 

 

I don’t think it means anything of what personnel he ran in Carolina.  Every coach adjusts or changes in some way, if you don’t and become predictable. 
 

And Lorax became a pass rushing end when we went to nickel looks.  

[PBF81]

33 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Have you ever known Beane to leave a position of need ignored?   Ever?   He needed guards this year, and he got them.   He need corners last year, and he got them.   He need edge rushers starting about three years ago, and he got them, in spades.  Beane ALWAYS fills needs.   

 

Well, I'm not, but many have been crying about Beane not properly getting receivers.  You can take that up with them.  But we have had needs, and how many draft picks on days 1 or 2 have expended on WRs?  

 

How about OL-men, which are 23% of the starting 22?  

 

So you tell me.  It's a little bit of a trick question otherwise.  A bunch of 1-2 year cast-off signees from other teams and 6th and 7th round picks technically are "filling a position of need."  

 

I think that the results are the important thing.  But when every offseason there are a few positions where you constantly need to upgrade, then it suggests that perhaps they haven't done the best job to date.  Not sure how else there is to spin that.  

 

 

33 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

So you know what your list of drafted linebackers, and the list of free agent linebackers signed, means?  It means that Beane and McDermott do not think that MLB is a position of need, that they think they have the guys they need to play the position.   

 

That's correct.  So let's see how they play.  What if it turns out that the ones that we have, the ones that you just said that they think are adequate, can't handle the job?  

 

In my book that means that they either don't know what they're doing, or can't properly judge talent.  We'll see.  It's too early to tell.  I'll tell you what I think has a decent chance of occurring, I think that it's quite possible that neither Dodson nor Bernard, nor anyone else, is going to be able to play the MLB position well.  I then think that there's a good chance that they attempt to tweak the D to mitigate that.  But let's suppose that were to occur, how would you spin it?  To me it would translate to an admission of failure and having to adjust beyond what they wanted.  Either that or we play with a weakness in the middle of the D, a pretty key spot that IMO most opposing DCs will exploit with a fair amount of ease.  

 

 

33 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You actually seem to believe that all the linebackers, other than Milano, suck, and that somehow McDermott and Beane haven't noticed?   Don't you see how unrealistic that is?  Their linebackers DON'T suck, or they would have gone out and gotten someone. 

 

I see.  Kind of like our OL has sucked for six seasons and they go out and continuously sign cast-offs from other teams that few teams are fighting with us to get in a revolving door solution leaving Allen and the O without any long-term chemistry on the OL.  

 

All I'm asking is that if they're wrong, don't defend them.  Call them out on it.  Why is that so difficult for most.  I'm the one defending Gabe Davis, most others think he sucks.  

 

Who cares about all this stuff now anyway.  It's time for the season.  Two more camp days and the preseason games begin.  

 

 

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

If they wanted to run more traditional 4-3, they would put resources towards it but they don’t.  Does this stat mean that every single NFL team doesn’t have 3 good LB?  As an entire league, defenses aren’t in base 4-3 80% of the time.  Do you honestly still think that makes sense?  

 

 

I don’t think it means anything of what personnel he ran in Carolina.  Every coach adjusts or changes in some way, if you don’t and become predictable. 
 

And Lorax became a pass rushing end when we went to nickel looks.  

 

I'm trying to reconcile it.  I leave open the possibility that I am wrong.  

 

That's an interesting and telling stat.  Thanks for sharing it.  

 

 

[Berky1010]

They know he has potential and are pushing him in all aspects of his game. I have no problem with that. If Elam is a true future #1CB he will need to be Uber motivated which the coaching staff is trying to do

[oldmanfan]

9 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, I'm not, but many have been crying about Beane not properly getting receivers.  You can take that up with them.  But we have had needs, and how many draft picks on days 1 or 2 have expended on WRs?  

 

How about OL-men, which are 23% of the starting 22?  

 

So you tell me.  It's a little bit of a trick question otherwise.  A bunch of 1-2 year cast-off signees from other teams and 6th and 7th round picks technically are "filling a position of need."  

 

I think that the results are the important thing.  But when every offseason there are a few positions where you constantly need to upgrade, then it suggests that perhaps they haven't done the best job to date.  Not sure how else there is to spin that.  

 

 

 

That's correct.  So let's see how they play.  What if it turns out that the ones that we have, the ones that you just said that they think are adequate, can't handle the job?  

 

In my book that means that they either don't know what they're doing, or can't properly judge talent.  We'll see.  It's too early to tell.  I'll tell you what I think has a decent chance of occurring, I think that it's quite possible that neither Dodson nor Bernard, nor anyone else, is going to be able to play the MLB position well.  I then think that there's a good chance that they attempt to tweak the D to mitigate that.  But let's suppose that were to occur, how would you spin it?  To me it would translate to an admission of failure and having to adjust beyond what they wanted.  Either that or we play with a weakness in the middle of the D, a pretty key spot that IMO most opposing DCs will exploit with a fair amount of ease.  

 

 

 

I see.  Kind of like our OL has sucked for six seasons and they go out and continuously sign cast-offs from other teams that few teams are fighting with us to get in a revolving door solution leaving Allen and the O without any long-term chemistry on the OL.  

 

All I'm asking is that if they're wrong, don't defend them.  Call them out on it.  Why is that so difficult for most.  I'm the one defending Gabe Davis, most others think he sucks.  

 

Who cares about all this stuff now anyway.  It's time for the season.  Two more camp days and the preseason games begin.  

 

 

Too many fans think that unless a guy is All Pro caliber he stinks.  That is not how the NFL works.  The cap does not allow it.  So some guys on a team are going to be average players.  Beane has tried to improve the O line every year.  Some moves didn’t work the way he wanted, so he tries again like he has this past off season.   Edmunds signed for a fortune with someone else, and they have 4 candidates to take that spot, one of whom (Dodson) with which they were I believe undefeated when he started last year.  We’ll see what happens there.  Davis was hurt most of last year, so we’ll see there.  And if you look at the best passing game in the league (KC) none of their WR are fantastic.  But they do have a possible GOAT in Kelce.  So enter Kincaid; let’s see what he does.

Edited August 7, 2023 by oldmanfan

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

It's correct that McDermott has not always played a 4-2-5 or "nickel" defense.  It's also correct that he hasn't always played the "little to no dime" defense.  That is personnel driven by the fact that Milano is so good in pass coverage and that Taron Johnson can function as a linebacker in run fits that allow us to use a 4-2-5 base.

 

However, the idea that 4-2-5 or "nickel" was "new" to McDermott during the 2020 season is just factually incorrect.  So is the idea that the Bills are playing this defense because they don't have 3 quality LB, rather than because they feel it is the best match for most of the teams they face in today's pass-heavy NFL.

 

And I don't know how to put it tactfully, but the stuff in your post I responded to "They started 3 LBs well into the 2020 season, McD's 4th season."   "We officially started 3 LBs into McD's 4th season and only switched mid-season. " is straight-out verifyably Incorrect.

 

Taron Johnson played the overwhelming majority of the snaps - >75% --- in the first eight games of the season with the exception of vs LVR (72%) and Tenn (56%).  He played slightly more snaps (>90%) for a 3 game stretch while Milano was on IR, then actually saw his snaps drop a bit the last few games of the season - not because we were playing a 4-3, we weren't, but because Siran Neal and sometimes Dean Marlowe was splitting the snaps with him.

 

You trend to post very definitive sounding posts in which you claim to be factual and definitive, but (as in this instance) are sometimes just mistaken, and frankly that IMHO casts doubt upon your other claims, which I don't have energy into tracking down at the moment - just saying it how it was. 

 

PS I'll take on this: "Remember, Milano still hadn't come into his own as an all-around top LB yet, he was excellent in passing D, but a liability in the running D dept.".  This is nonsense.  Milano was a very developed, mature LB in 2020, his 4th year in the league, because he was a "thumper" in the run game as well as a strong coverage LB.  He was a pending free agent that off-season and widely expected to have great interest and to claim a price the Bills wouldn't be able to match, had he not made the decision to stay here.  As Beane said "the only knock on Matt, and he's aware of it himself, is injuries"

 

Maybe you're right here.  I get my starting line-up info from NFL gamebooks and ourlads.  Possible one or both wasn't entirely accurate.  

 

Royale with Cheese just posted a stat that I was unfamiliar with as well, a general league wide stat.  

 

I do know that in his first season or two fans and media were both critical of Milano's run defending skills.  Perhaps my timing on when that was was off.  I'll try to do a bit more research next time.  Sometimes I go off memory and that's not always a good thing  

 

I posed it to Shaw just now also, but one thing that think is quite possible this season, is that our MLB position remains unsolved.  Should that occur, and should McD tweak the D to minimize the impact of that, again, merely as a possibility, what would you think?  

 

And related to that, at the same time, it'd be refreshing from time to time to actually here some criticism from your side of the tracks as it were, when McD and/or Beane make mistakes, errors in judgement, bad decisions, etc., and not always blame things on "anything but them."  

 

I think that some of this is a two-way street.    

 

Appreciate the info.  Let's hope for the best this season, it's time to come together as fans.  We can sort it out later if things don't go as planned, or all revel together should we finally land a Lombardi in Buffalo!  

 

Go Bills!  

 

 

[PBF81]

14 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Too many fans think that unless a guy is All Pro caliber he stinks.  That is not how the NFL works.  The cap does not allow it.  So some guys on a team are going to be average players.  

 

Agree, entirely.  In fact, other than for a QB, my position is and always has been, that a team is better off with 21 other players rated at a 5-7 (1-to-10 scale, 10 being best/premier/all-pro), than with a handful of players at 8-9 and the rest average or below-average.  Also, chemistry, how long they've played together.  

 

 

14 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Beane has tried to improve the O line every year.  Some moves didn’t work the way he wanted, so he tries again like he has this past off season.  

 

Exactly, but more people think he hasn't done a great job than done a great job.  Most haven't worked out well on the OL, but I'm not sure what anyone expects when the primary methodology employed after whiffing on a pair of day-2 OL-men, is to stock the team with cast-offs that aren't in high-demand as 1-2 year signees.  I mean if every season the OL is average or below-average, and I can't think of a time on their watch that it's been above-average with any consistency, then it would be nice to hear people admit to that instead of defending the methodology and the decisions.  

 

 

14 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Edmunds signed for a fortune with someone else, and they have 4 candidates to take that spot, one of whom (Dodson) with which they were I believe undefeated when he started last year.  We’ll see what happens there.  

 

Agree.  But again, if they whiff there too, it'd be nice to hear some criticism of obviously failed moves rather than a defense of it all and apologetics.  If they don't, great, we're all happy.  

 

 

14 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Davis was hurt most of last year, so we’ll see there.  And if you look at the best passing game in the league (KC) none of their WR are fantastic.  But they do have a possible GOAT in Kelce.  So enter Kincaid; let’s see what he does.

 

Completely agree there.  I'm one of Davis' biggest advocates.  He's been a fall-guy for the most part.  

 

 

[BananaB]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

No, no, no.   The Bills are very public about the extent to which they grade people.  Every player is graded every day.  How they play on the field is graded in minute detail.  McDermott has been very clear, over and over, that the guy who plays the best plays, regardless of his draft position.   And no, he does NOT play guys in real games so that they can develop.  Practice is for developing, games are for winning.  So, yes, it may be less apparent to you, but that's just because you're not paying attention.    The guy who does the job best plays, period.  That's the way it works on almost every team, from pee wees up to the NFL.  

Maybe that’s the problem and a reason why we can’t get over the hump with McD. If a guy is slightly better but the other player shows more overall potential it’s more beneficial for the team to get that younger player to full potential at a faster pace.  
 

[EasternOHBillsFan]

13 hours ago, Tom Donahoe, GM said:

Teller wasn't a first round pick

Elam hasn't been traded

Teller plays offense

Elam plays defense

 

You totally missed the point... poor personnel decisions is the common theme.

[gobills1212]

I dont think this thread came across the way you meant it to...

[RyanC883]

7 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Yes. And they get graded against what they were supposed to do.  It is a certainty that Elams grades were lower; that's why he didn't play more.   

 

Why would anyone have a problem with that?

 

how do you know his were lower?  Jackson is consistently behind the WR.   

[Dr.Sack]

When was the last time Dane Jackson made a critical play in a big game? I don’t remember. I recall Elam picking Mahomes, and making 2 huge plays vs Miami in the playoffs. 

[Punch]

Although he may have struggled somewhat as a rookie I think he's simply too talented to wind up working at a bank anytime soon.

[Shaw66]

10 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

how do you know his were lower?  Jackson is consistently behind the WR.   

How do I know?   Really?  How do I know?

 

How many teams have you been on where the coach played the second best player at some position over the best player at the position?   I've been on a lot of teams, and I can't recall the coach EVER playing the second best player.   Coaches want to win.   Coaches also want the respect of the players; the players know who the best players on the team are, and they lose respect for the coach when the coach doesn't play them.   It's true about all teams I've known.   

 

Coaches quit when the owner makes them play players who aren't the best at their positions.  

 

So, it's simple:   The Bills grade their players in detail.  They play the best players.  Elam is not a regular starter.  It follows that Elam doesn't have the best grades at the position.  

 

Compare Elam to Cook.   Cook didn't play a lot early in the season.  Why?  Same reason as Elam: He didn't grade out as being good enough to play.  He played more as the season progressed.  Why?  Because he kept working and his grades improved, in practice and in games.  Better grades, more playing time.   Eventually, his grades got so good that he passed Motor, and the Bills finally concluded they could let Motor go.   Cook passed Singletary.   Elam hasn't passed Jackson and Benford.   It's that simple.  

[Shaw66]

13 hours ago, BananaB said:

Maybe that’s the problem and a reason why we can’t get over the hump with McD. If a guy is slightly better but the other player shows more overall potential it’s more beneficial for the team to get that younger player to full potential at a faster pace.  
 

It's really simple, and people don't want to accept it.  McDermott (and lots of other coaches) say it all the time.  The best player plays.   It's a competition, in practice, in games, all the time.   The current winner of the competition plays.   You aren't the winner in the competition because you're a close second but have more potential.   Potential doesn't make you better.  

 

The guy with potential has every day in practice to show he's better.   If he's a close second, like Elam was last season, he gets playing time in games.   He gets graded.   If his grades are better than the others, he gets more playing time.  If they aren't, he doesn't.   

 

How much playing time did Ford get because he had more potential?   Very little.  Why?  Because other players were better, and the Bills wanted the best players on the field.  Ford kept getting tryouts for the first time, a little playing time here and there, and he never did it. 

 

Somehow people think it should be different for Elam.   All it really means is that your evaluation of Elam is different from McDermott's.   

McDermott desperately wants to win, and he has about 100 times more information about Elam than you do.   I think if McDermott thought Elam was the best option, he'd put him on the field more.  

[Royale with Cheese]

11 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

how do you know his were lower?  Jackson is consistently behind the WR.   

 

How do you know he graded higher?

 

You watch the game in a broadcast view.  You aren't seeing the whole field and certainly not focusing on Jackson.  You have no idea how he's graded.

 

Do you really think McDermott sees Elam is better than Benford and Jackson but just doesn't make him the #2 for no reason at all?  He was our first pick last year.

[Nextmanup]

Question to the OP:  Do you live on the second floor?