Outside of MLB, Where are the Bills Worse in 2023?

[BADOLBILZ]

43 minutes ago, eball said:

 

The only reason Harty's numbers don't dwarf Li'l Dirty's is because of injury -- which is relevant, but I'm working under the assumption that Harty can stay reasonably healthy now that he has the NFL's best training staff.  Li'l Dirty just wasn't reliable.  He'd have a big game (like the Pats* in '21) but disappear for large stretches.  He did not do a good job in the slot.  I'll go with Harty/Sherfield/Y2 Shakir over Li'l Dirty any day.

 

 

 

In fairness.........you should note that you didn't think this way about McKenzie last year.     You were high on him.   You made assumptions that he would become something he'd only shown flashes of before.........just as you are doing with the chronically gimpy Sharty.     I guess the flip side is that Lil' Dummy was at least durable.  Or that he had at least had a 100 yard receiving game in his career.   

[C.Biscuit97]

It’s so wild that DC and MLB of a top 3 defense isn’t a big loss to some. Kinda hilarious. Reminds me of the London Fletcher makes too many tackles down field stupid days. 
 

but I do agree other than MLB (it’s going to be a surprise for some of you) and backup QB (not a Kyle Allen fan), we are at worst the Same and mostly likely better.  I think our rb depth is better but DS was a good all around back. And still gotta see it with the receivers. 
 

but I love being more under the radar this year. I can see us having a worse regular season record (division is going to be really tough) but making a deeper playoff run. Hopefully, Vegas deep. 

[Beck Water]

5 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

McKenzie has never had a year in his career as good as the 2021 harty had on the dumpster fire passing game saints in only 11 games lol

 

Crowder hardly even played…why is he now retroactively getting talked up? Why are we comparing our expectations going into 2022 with what we have now when we played a full season with those guys?  Gabe Davis is still gabe Davis for better or worse, crowder never played and is gone, mckenzie was bad and is gone.  
 

We added the best pass catcher in the draft,a receiver who was ramping up in 2021 then got hurt last year, and a pretty capable player from a division rival that we likely have a lot of insider knowledge of. how can that not be better than what we saw on the field last year? 

 

Must we do this?

Apparently we must.

"McKenzie has never had a year in his career as good as the 2021 Harty had"

 

By what criteria?  Yards?  Ok.  Receptions?  Advantage, McKenzie.  1D?  McKenzie.  TD?  McKenzie  Catch %?  McKenzie

 

  (click to be able to read)

 

And don't overlook that "Best Ability is AVAIL ability" mantra of Sean McDermott.

 

"Crowder hardly even played"  He broke his leg the 4th game of the season with the Bills, you know that, right?

 

It can be "not better than what we saw on the field last year" if Hardy can't stay available and if it turns out Sherfield needed Hill and Waddle on the same team to be able to be productive.

 

I'm on team "theoretically, we improved".  Theoretically, Sherfield > Kumerow as a WR and Harty has a higher ceiling than McKenzie - IF he can stay healthy.  But games aren't played in theory, they're played on grass or turf on Sunday.

Edited August 2, 2023 by Beck Water

[Patrick Duffy]

1 hour ago, RyanC883 said:

Nowhere.  And not even sure they are worse at LB, I think Dorian Williams will fill the Edmunds role very well.  

 

Hope so at some point. I know there's not much to go off of to get an idea, but I'm not sure the amount of reps he's had with the 1's so far in TC, but I thought I saw a report that Dodson started pulling ahead of the others a bit and getting most of the reps as of now? 

 

 

Edited August 2, 2023 by Patrick Duffy

[Beck Water]

Just now, Patrick Duffy said:

 

Hope so at some point. I know there's not much to go off of to get an idea, but I'm not sure the amount of reps he's had with the 1's so far in TC, but I thought I saw a report that Dodson started pulling ahead of the others a bit and getting most of the reps as of now? 

 

 

 

Dorian Williams is, per Beane and McDermott, not in the rotation for MLB this season.  He will be backing up Milano.

 

The MLB rotation has been Dodson-Bernard-Spector. 

 

The kerfluffle is that on Tuesday, which would have been Spector's day, Dodson ran with the 1sts.

So the question is, does that mean Spector is out of the race, or was it just a switch-around for some reason?

[3rdand12]

53 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Dorian Williams is, per Beane and McDermott, not in the rotation for MLB this season.  He will be backing up Milano.

 

The MLB rotation has been Dodson-Bernard-Spector. 

 

The kerfluffle is that on Tuesday, which would have been Spector's day, Dodson ran with the 1sts.

So the question is, does that mean Spector is out of the race, or was it just a switch-around for some reason?

It just means we're screwd this year.

And likely playing three box safeties and two deep safeties. two corners. No slot corner excepting sometimes.
Taron is going to be bummed.

 JK of course
 

But really

 We could have brought in a decent or better MLB in FA. They were out there,

 Its a concern
 

 

 

[DeltaDigital]

2 hours ago, Dopey said:

Come on, now. There's plenty of highlight videos of him. I'm going to guess you don't have a babe ruth card to bet with. Why did Edmunds leave? Hint: to get paid. More than Milano. And you call him a dummy!? Pot to kettle. 

Below: How does Milano start off to the left of Edmunds and end up behind him and to his right?!?!? The cutback was right where your boy Milano should have been. For every "mistake" Edmunds makes in some eyes, I can find a mistake by Milano. Against GB last year, AJ Dillon carried Edmunds an extra 4-5 yds on an attempted tackle. Boy, was he made fun of here. A few plays later, AJ Dillon did the EXACT same thing to Milano. Not a peep. Seems like you don't really watch the game paying attention to LB play but come up with stuff like this. Just regurgitating what you read here by others. There can't be any other reason. Dummy, bum?! What's the hate about? You're mad about something else, aren't you? 

 

 

2 hours ago, Dopey said:

 

hahahah you're kidding me with this "highlight" right? milano got taken out of the play by a defender who beat his man off the LOS (wasn't even touched), tard-edmunds just got washed, took the wrong read and stumbled on his own two feet. Look here, 1st round vs 5th round. 5th round got paid by his original team and has WAY better statistacal numbers than this lauded 1st rounder. what an "OOF" of a pick. 

Nobody here's calling him dumb for getting paid. im calling him dumb because he's a vastly over rated, over paid football player. nothing more, nothing less.

Nice job projecting tho... I just want the buffalo bills to field the best players given their draft position. It's as much a failure by beane and the scouting staff as it is on edumnds refusal to develop. His rookie year, it looked like we had something with him. So good, I even bought a #49 Jersey. GO LOOK at the stats from his rookie year. They leap off the page. Subsequent years, not so much. I don't need some message board to tell me what to think of this poor football player. I have two eyes.

 

That's what the hate is about. Whiffing on a 1st round selection that should have been a perennial game changer for 10 years. That's not what we got. 

 

What else would I be mad about? 

 

Bears got fleeced, and buffalo wont miss a beat, and MAY actually improve performance out of the MLB spot. Would that settle the argument? 

 

 

Edited August 2, 2023 by DeltaDigital

[3rdand12]

1 hour ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

Hope so at some point. I know there's not much to go off of to get an idea, but I'm not sure the amount of reps he's had with the 1's so far in TC, but I thought I saw a report that Dodson started pulling ahead of the others a bit and getting most of the reps as of now? 

 

 

Edmunds didn't fit the Edmunds role that well first few years !

 Hoping McD has a sincere plan how to manage match ups week in and week out.
Willing to be surprised

[RyanC883]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They have ruled that out. Beane said it on OneBillsLive. MIKE is too much for him as a rookie they are going to work him exclusively at WILL behind Milano.

 

why is McD convinced everything is too much for rookies not drafted in the 1st.  Said the same about Milano and others as I recall, Milano eventually forced his way into playing as a rookie though. 

[Manther]

On 8/1/2023 at 11:23 AM, GunnerBill said:

It is only MLB that I think the team is definitely weaker on paper. The issue is I think that drop off is significant..... don't love any of our options there now that they have concluded it is too much for Williams as a rookie. I also think there remain questions about the secondary just because three older guys coming off injuries to differing extents is a legit concern. I hope they can play good football and stay healthy but it isn't a sure thing. 

Agree, but, optimistic

[Manther]

On 8/1/2023 at 11:43 AM, Nextmanup said:

Who says we are worse at MLB?  

 

Edmunds is extremely overrated and that's why we let him walk.

 

Anyone WITH SPEED can fit into his slot in that system and achieve similar results.

 

 

For starters, I think Edmunds was good, but, over rated.  We will miss him, but, hopefully not much.  I liked letting him go after we didn't sign him to a team friendly deal the previous off season.  However, this comment makes me think of...

 

[Manther]

On 8/1/2023 at 2:26 PM, ngbills said:

I agree with some of the depth comments. You can argue our depth has improved. But the talent needed to win in the playoffs?

 

Last year who were the top 5 Bills players: Allen, Diggs, Edmunds, Miller, Milano? Honorable mentions for guys like White, Poyer, Hyde, Singletary, Oliver, Dawkins.

 

Who is it this year? Allen, Diggs, Miller, Milano, Hyde? Honorable mentions for guys like White, Poyer, Oliver, Dawkins, Cook. What free agent or draft pick would crack the list? 

Meh comment.  Last years players had a bunch of injuries.  This is apples to oranges.  Also, Singletary was not a top player, he was a competing for a starting role and did well in that role and won the starting RB.  Based on your top players, it seems to be a combination of the beginning of the year and mid to end of season.  Not all of these players were top Bills at one time.  I think this is a flawed argument.  Including you don't have to cap top players at 5.  Some years you may have 3, some 5, some 10. 

 

White was not a top player last year from OTA's on.

 

Your thought process is good, but, the comparison is flawed.

 

We have more good, impactful healthy players this year except Von Miller.

 

 

[HappyCat]

On 8/1/2023 at 11:43 AM, Nextmanup said:

Who says we are worse at MLB?  

 

Edmunds is extremely overrated and that's why we let him walk.

 

Anyone WITH SPEED can fit into his slot in that system and achieve similar results.

 

 

I agree!  I think we may a bit better with 3 LB's who can tackle and have good instincts.

[MasterStrategist]

6 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I was very clear when I said "back half of prime" or well past.    You don't think Morse and Dawkins are even in back half of their primes?   Morse is probably in his last year altogether and Dawkins is a bad body tackle coming off a down year so I don't see him stringing together another 5 years of prime Dion.    

 

As for whether the team itself is old or not.....that wasn't my point.....but they ARE old.

 

When they break camp they will absolutely be one of the 5 oldest rosters in the NFL........in fact they will probably be the oldest roster in the NFL if the Saints aren't.   The Bills were 6th oldest at break of camp last year........and 4 of the 5 "older" teams have all undergone big shakeups and youth movements.

 

The narrative that they were ever a "young" team was always misleading.   They've been one of the oldest rosters EVERY YEAR going back to the Marrone/Rex years.

 

Now the numbers add up to probably an average age around 27 years.........and even their top 2 draft picks will hopefully be 24 before the Bills season ends so that's not skewing the numbers down either.

 

But they are actually old-old on defense.   Legit.   4 starters in secondary deep into second or third contracts.   Von,  Jones, Floyd........all in their 30's.   Can't be any team with that many 30 somethings in key defensive roles.   That is what concerns me about projecting.   Some vets get better at avoiding injury with age but in general there are diminishing returns in terms of availability with age.   Like, 3 years ago it was a virtual given that Hyde and Poyer would be there every game.   Now?  Eh.

 

 

This is a fair take, especially defensively.

 

But I guess it comes down to expectations.

 

For example in the secondary, we were down Micah for all but 2 game, Tre not himself/let alone didn't suit up until Thxgiving, Poyer dinged up since camp, Benford put on IR, Dane with a neck, and Elam a rookie with a lot of learning (ie: how to be an off-press zone corner).

 

All that said, it's possible the same thing happens again.. ..however, extremely unlikely.

 

The key really is come playoff time.  We've been down premier secondary players for the past 2 seasons, entering playoffs.  I'm more concerned we don't have an answer if Micah, Jordan, or Tre is out..come deep playoffs.  

 

On offense, especially pass catchers....we've discussed this.  And it's a matter of opinion right now.  I don't see much reason to compare how ppl viewed this group entering 2022 though...to me that's off topic, unless you're trying to prove a point that certain posters tend to be overly optimistic.   

 

Definitley easy in hindsight to say guys underperformed/injuries derailed the plan.  Same could happen again, but on paper this "new" group of pass catchers + more healthy Gabe + Shakir developing, etc is probably better bet to be "an improved unit" over LY.  How much better, or what's the odds?  Nobody knows yet, but we do know that we had zero reliable slot guys LY and Gabe battled an ankle all season.  So again, it could be the same this year, but odds are we find some slot option better than McKenzie (or Lil Dummy as you called him) and Gabe at least matches his production or within a reasonable range.  

 

I have complete faith Josh can carry this offense in the playoffs, if need be. Didn't happen LY, and not ideal, but call me less concerned. 

 

Defense is where I'm "leary", mainly for health reasons that have been stated and past letdowns/lack of adjustments.  My primary reason for optimism is the additions made on Dline, and my complete frustration/distrust in Frazier to coach a championship defense.  Outside of MLB, this is the most "top end" talent that we've possessed...just stay healthy and faith in Coach to make the right calls

[Drew21PA]

On 8/1/2023 at 11:10 AM, wppete said:

Losing Edmunds is going to hurt. 

No it won’t 

[BADOLBILZ]

56 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Definitley easy in hindsight to say guys underperformed/injuries derailed the plan.  Same could happen again, but on paper this "new" group of pass catchers + more healthy Gabe + Shakir developing, etc is probably better bet to be "an improved unit" over LY.  How much better, or what's the odds?  Nobody knows yet,

 

 

You do realize that there are ACTUAL sports gambling projections available for these players, right? 

 

So yeah......there are odds already set.

 

And they don't share your "good bet" opinion.

 

Fan Duel and Draft Sharks project Deonte Harty to produce only around 50 total yards receiving and Trent Sherfield around 150-170.

 

So around 200-220 yards combine. 

 

For comparison.........the combination of Jamison Crowder and Lil' Dummy are projected to produce about 350-360 combined for their new teams (Giants/Colts). 

 

Gabe is expected to be the same guy as last year and Shakir is expected to have about the same numbers as McKenzie did last season.  

 

I don't really know how to explain it any clearer...........the perception that you and some other Bills fans have that the team has so obviously and largely improved themselves by swapping 2022 Crowder/Dummy for 2023 Sharty/Sherfield is far from the actual general consensus or that of the "betting" public.

 

 

 

 

 

[ngbills]

13 hours ago, Manther said:

Meh comment.  Last years players had a bunch of injuries.  This is apples to oranges.  Also, Singletary was not a top player, he was a competing for a starting role and did well in that role and won the starting RB.  Based on your top players, it seems to be a combination of the beginning of the year and mid to end of season.  Not all of these players were top Bills at one time.  I think this is a flawed argument.  Including you don't have to cap top players at 5.  Some years you may have 3, some 5, some 10. 

 

White was not a top player last year from OTA's on.

 

Your thought process is good, but, the comparison is flawed.

 

We have more good, impactful healthy players this year except Von Miller.

 

 

Disagree. That’s like saying we have exact same roster as last year. So Allen gets hurt last season but is healthy this season we are saying the front office upgraded the roster? It’s about how are we entering this season vs last season. We lost a clear star player in edmunds and have added a handful of depth players. That is the reality. The argument could be we didn’t need to upgrade we just need guys to be healthy. But that is different than we upgraded. 

[ngbills]

Do people understand Edmunds role in this defense? A lot of critics that he did not blow up the line, make tackles behind the line, etc. That was not his job. He was not used like some middle LB that don’t have two gap responsibility or have such a big role in the passing game. That is why he rarely blitzed or was rarely chasing guys behind the line of scrimmage. 

[MasterStrategist]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You do realize that there are ACTUAL sports gambling projections available for these players, right? 

 

So yeah......there are odds already set.

 

And they don't share your "good bet" opinion.

 

Fan Duel and Draft Sharks project Deonte Harty to produce only around 50 total yards receiving and Trent Sherfield around 150-170.

 

So around 200-220 yards combine. 

 

For comparison.........the combination of Jamison Crowder and Lil' Dummy are projected to produce about 350-360 combined for their new teams (Giants/Colts). 

 

Gabe is expected to be the same guy as last year and Shakir is expected to have about the same numbers as McKenzie did last season.  

 

I don't really know how to explain it any clearer...........the perception that you and some other Bills fans have that the team has so obviously and largely improved themselves by swapping 2022 Crowder/Dummy for 2023 Sharty/Sherfield is far from the actual general consensus or that of the "betting" public.

 

 

 

 

 

First off, if Hartys 50 receiving yards is accurate that's an easy bet.  I'm not able to find that, but my point isn't necessarily about just stats (more on that below).  I could careless what McKenzie/Crowder are projected for on their new teams....they'll be getting different playing time/targets/etc.  It's about finding someone who can be more consistent/win 1-1 matchups/that isn't a total spaz, like Mck.

 

Second, Kincaid needs to be considered for obvious reasons (in my "new group" comment). 

 

Finally, the larger point isn't just about stats.  Yes, the stats will tell us alot about our Total offensive production/who contributed come year-end.  However, the main point is "consistency", and can these guys win their 1-1 matchups when Diggs is doubled. 

 

Again, there's alot of reasons to say "odds" are they will be better this year (consistency)...especially at slot, like I am pointing out.  McKenzie blew A LOT of opportunities and probably the most inconsistent player who received regular playing time.   Shakir, Kincaid, Harty, Sherfield...all guys I trust to be better/more reliable than McKenzie.

 

Did Gabe play consistent all year, of course not.  But if his ankle really did hold him back, then it's fair to say that as long as he doesn't injure it Week 2 again, then we might get better regular season production.

 

It's clear to me that we have improved at slot, the bar was super low vs LY tho.  Question is will it be enough.

 

I'm sure we can revisit this topic throughout the season 😁

[colin]

on d we are worse at MLB, but (right now, based on where we were last season) way better at pass rush, similar to better at corner, and way better at safety.

 

on O we are better by a bit at RT (healthy brown vs banged up, don't have too much expectation here tho), way better at both OG positions.  WR we are a little bit better (the ghosts of brown and bease getting signed on our super bowl run tell us everything), TE we are much better, and RB we are better (cook growing, our vets now are better than devin) but not by much given hines went down.

 

what matters, aside from allen and diggs and the usual, more than anything tho, is our D line has to get pressure on passers and our OL has to block.  if that happens, we can win the chip.  if it doesn't we are going to have to be near perfect in other areas.