Outside of MLB, Where are the Bills Worse in 2023?

[Jauronimo]

I think the OL added two decent pieces but I don't know if it will be enough to meaningfully change the issues we saw last year.  Unless Brown takes a major step forward and Torrance is starting material day 1, I think we see more of the same.  A middling line with an inability to get any push in the run game and is susceptible to speed rush off the ends and power rush up the middle.

 

Dawkins is on the downside of his career.  McGovern is decent in pass pro but weak in run blocking according to the reports I've read.  Brown remains a major question mark and his backup is not a sure thing.  I expect Torrance to add a lot to our run game but he is a rookie and I expect he will look like one at times in pass pro.

[noacls]

They have not played one down yet. How can you say they are worse. Edmunds constantly mis-diagnosed plays and looked like he was on rollerskates in the run game. Good Qb's and OC's absolutely abused him. 

Edited August 1, 2023 by noacls

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

I think the OL added two decent pieces but I don't know if it will be enough to meaningfully change the issues we saw last year.  Unless Brown takes a major step forward and Torrance is starting material day 1, I think we see more of the same.  A middling line with an inability to get any push in the run game and is susceptible to speed rush off the ends and power rush up the middle.

 

Dawkins is on the downside of his career.  McGovern is decent in pass pro but weak in run blocking according to the reports I've read.  Brown remains a major question mark and his backup is not a sure thing.  I expect Torrance to add a lot to our run game but he is a rookie and I expect he will look like one at times in pass pro.

 

That is all fair but not even sure we were a middling line last year. We were flat out bad. Getting back to middling would be progress.

[TheWeatherMan]

Out of the gate, we are worse at DE.  Until Von is back on the field it will remain that way.  RT is still a major weakness until proven otherwise.  All other positions are pretty solid.

[SCBills]

24 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I like Edmunds and am a big fan of what he brought to the table. Talent wise, losing him does downgrade the LB room.

 

However, I'm curious to see how losing Edmunds has a ripple affect on what the MLB position is asked to do. If they plug any of the guys in and ask them to do the same things Edmunds did it's not going to be good. If they adjust the role and ask more of a down hill type style, send on blitzes a bit more and don't drom the MLB into space 95% of the time (just an estimate) I think we will be fine.

 

I think we're getting a glimpse of it with all the dropping into coverage they have guys like Rousseau, Floyd and AJE doing.  

 

Simulated pressures with LB's and DB's blitzing while a DE drops into a zone or carries a receiver down the field. 

 

Edited August 1, 2023 by SCBills

[Airseven]

They're not worse. The concern is there's no significant upgrades across the roster, with the possible exception of Kincaid fulfilling some of these wild expectations. The Bills are dependent on: 1) aging players to overcome injury; and 2) other important starters to surpass recent ability and performance. Cap issues + weak drafts are a challenging predicament.        

[BullBuchanan]

The Bills may have gotten better at some areas of depth, but they made no improvements to the top of their roster. They added no playmakers and created a massive gap at the MLB position that will have to be filled by a low-grade prospect or low-tier veteran this season. They are effectively "running it back" this year, which says they think they were good enough to win it all last year and just got unlucky.

I personally think that's far from true. Unless we get very lucky and Burrow's calf continues to be a struggle all season long, I have us at best the 3rd best team in the AFC and no better than 4th (maybe 5th) overall. If the Dolphins or Jets take a meaningful step forward, as they no doubt expect to, we could be in very big trouble.

We're still very much in a position that if you take Diggs out of our offense, we're a mediocre team with limited weapons. We're also in a position on defense where we lack high end prospects and have too few playmakers. We absolutely need Rousseau to have a breakout season, need one of Benford or Elam to push Jackson to the bench, and need to see our depth front four be far more impactful than they were last season, if we want to compete with the 1A elite teams in the league.

[Saxum]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I like Edmunds and am a big fan of what he brought to the table. Talent wise, losing him does downgrade the LB room.

 

However, I'm curious to see how losing Edmunds has a ripple affect on what the MLB position is asked to do. If they plug any of the guys in and ask them to do the same things Edmunds did it's not going to be good. If they adjust the role and ask more of a down hill type style, send on blitzes a bit more and don't drom the MLB into space 95% of the time (just an estimate) I think we will be fine.

 

The defense IS going to change because the defense we have had in the last 5 years was dependent upon a LB Edmunds who could cover a lot more space than most other LBs which allowed them to plug in Taron Johnson as nickel defender / slot CB.  When he was out they tried to not adjust defense and it did not work and then when they did AJ Klein out on a show and got AP Defense Player of the Week.  

 

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

It is only MLB that I think the team is definitely weaker on paper. The issue is I think that drop off is significant..... don't love any of our options there now that they have concluded it is too much for Williams as a rookie. I also think there remain questions about the secondary just because three older guys coming off injuries to differing extents is a legit concern. I hope they can play good football and stay healthy but it isn't a sure thing. 

IMO gain of Hyde and loss of Edmunds is at least a wash in terms of how I feel about the backend.

 

the rotating safety door last year was really bad at times.

Edited August 1, 2023 by FireChans

[NoSaint]

2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

 

I agree with you nearly 100%.  But I think we have to acknowledge a lot of uncertainty.

 

Will Josh's UCL become a recurring problem?

Will Dorsey actually get better?

Will McD trying to wear two hats (HC & DC) at once prove to be a mistake?

Will our banged-up, aging DBs return to peak form?

How much of an impact will Kincaid have in his rookie year?

Can Von stay healthy?  If so, at what level of productivity?  

How good will Shakir, Harty, and Sherfield be?  

The OL seems improved but can it rise all the way to the level of averageness?  

Will MLB end up being the exploitable Achilles heel of this defense?  

Who's going to get hurt?

 

(Note: I've been a Bills fan for 40+ years so I've been trained to worry).  

 

 

 

well, that’s the thing with comparing this years full strength and full of optimism roster with last years already depleted and beat up one. Of course it looks better to say Hyde is healthy but Hyde was healthy last off-season too, right? Someone, and likely someone decent will be hurt at some point.

 

Our WR depth got marginally better harty/sherfield vs mckenzie/crowder but we still have a question mark at WR2

 

kincaid could be an answer but TE tends to have some ramp up associated. I expect him better than TE2 last year but not penciling in a pro bowl either.

 

MLB is drastically worse. Does that hamper assignments around it?  Can Milano roam less, do the safeties get sucked in more (and take more hits), do the lineman have to be more cautious?

 

miller is a huge wildcard - does he come back seamless or is it more like tre did? 
 

Is Torrance a fit in our scheme? Hard to think the line slips either way but lots of guys bust and we think of them at their best in august. 
 

I do think the teams slightly better, as long as Miller comes back as strong as he was pre injury but I suspect that gaps much smaller than threads like this portray and if Miller struggles that’ll be a big concern. 

 

[ngbills]

I agree with some of the depth comments. You can argue our depth has improved. But the talent needed to win in the playoffs?

 

Last year who were the top 5 Bills players: Allen, Diggs, Edmunds, Miller, Milano? Honorable mentions for guys like White, Poyer, Hyde, Singletary, Oliver, Dawkins.

 

Who is it this year? Allen, Diggs, Miller, Milano, Hyde? Honorable mentions for guys like White, Poyer, Oliver, Dawkins, Cook. What free agent or draft pick would crack the list? 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

One thing I would like to point out is how poorly Edmunds graded in 2021. Defense finished 1st in points and yards. This board was not happy with Edmunds. MLB was considered our weakest position outside of CB2. The next year Edmunds has a good year and grades well, defense has another good year statistically. But now we’re once again worried about MLB.

 

I don’t know what my point is concerning 2023 but maybe it’s more about the collective scheme than the individual players. It’s probably why Dodson is the front runner because he knows the system inside and out.

 

The Bills defense will be good no matter who the MLB is because the players around him are very experienced in the scheme. He’ll be in the right position more often than not. We saw it last year with all the injuries. They still had good stats. In the playoffs we need someone to make plays but the regular season should go much like previous years.

 

 

Edited August 1, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[LABILLBACKER]

I have mild concerns with our LT/RT and how healthy Tre and Von will be. Obviously the MLB situation will have to become "best player standing".  Was really hoping Elam and Dorian Williams would jump in as starters but that's not looking good?  With Kincaid and Knox being asked to block less (unless Spencer fails), I think the 12 personnel will help the receiving corp.

[BillsFan692]

2 hours ago, boyst said:

The secondary is interesting because we have reinvested into injured players: Hamlin, Hyde, Poyer. I like Marlowe more than most but am happy we have Rapp as insurance.

 

My trepidation in the secondary is the regression of Taron Johnson later in the season. We play nickel primarily. We cannot afford poor play here and while Neal could be a nickel on most teams and start - being a nickel player 60% of the time isn't for him. In Johnson we must trust. 

 

The LB unit is downgraded losing Edmunds. On paper it's major, as you noted. With better coverage on the DL adding Floyd, Puna, and Expenesa potentially breaking through will help. 

 

I think the dark horse is WR. I think it will be equal to last year. I don't see enough improvement on paper right now. 

You are predicting taron johnson declines? Based on what? That kid is pretty good at football.

[ngbills]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

One thing I would like to point out is how poorly Edmunds graded in 2021. Defense finished 1st in points and yards. This board was not happy with Edmunds. MLB was considered our weakest position outside of CB2. The next year Edmunds has a good year and grades well, defense has another good year statistically. But now we’re once again worried about MLB.

 

I don’t know what my point is concerning 2023 but maybe it’s more about the collective scheme than the individual players. It’s probably why Dodson is the front runner because he knows the system inside and out.

 

The Bills defense will be good no matter who the MLB is because the players around him are very experienced in the scheme. He’ll be in the right position more often than not. We saw it last year with all the injuries. They still had good stats. In the playoffs we need someone to make players but the regular season should go much like previous years.

 

 

I dont recall many people calling to replace Edmunds. Many wanted to add to the LB room. But I would not say there was a ton of get rid of Edmunds talk. He has been discussed of not living up to the expectations or not being worth a big contract. That is different than he should not be on the field. 

[boyst]

1 minute ago, BillsFan692 said:

You are predicting taron johnson declines? Based on what? That kid is pretty good at football.

He seemed to struggle later in the season

[SteveFreeman22]

NBA? NHL??   😆

[Buffalo_Stampede]

5 minutes ago, ngbills said:

I dont recall many people calling to replace Edmunds. Many wanted to add to the LB room. But I would not say there was a ton of get rid of Edmunds talk. He has been discussed of not living up to the expectations or not being worth a big contract. That is different than he should not be on the field. 

I don’t know. I don’t remember much get rid of Edmunds talk because it wasn’t realistic. But he was definitely the focus for many fans before last season.

 

He also didn’t grade very well in 2021 which had little impact on the defense. What I’m saying is the experience of the defense in this scheme is rare. We dont have to worry about MLB because the players and coaches will give him support. 

 

 

9 minutes ago, boyst said:

He seemed to struggle later in the season

What?

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

I'm not sure Singletary was excellent at pass blocking, but he was good. I'm not sure Cook is who you want out there for pass blocking. He is more slender. I'm sure Harris and Murray know what they are doing with pass blocking.

 

I will give Singletary props on that.  He didn't start out that way, but he improved a lot in year 2 and by year 3 I think you could confidently say he was a strong pass blocking RB.

 

Slenderness doesn't matter.  Fred Jackson famously leveled JJ Watt. Lil' Dirty McKenzie laid some licks down when called upon to pass protect.

 

It's a matter of 1) knowing the scheme - it isn't simple, the RB has to decode very quickly who his blocking assignment might be pre-snap and then understand the impact of any defensive adjustments post-snap on that assignment 2) having quick feet to maintain a position of leverage 3) being fearless to get in the way

[EmotionallyUnstable]

I must be the only guy who things the WRs aren’t actually better.