Outside of MLB, Where are the Bills Worse in 2023?

[jwhit34]

It has been fascinating to hear many, especially in the national media, state things like the Super Bowl window is closing for the Bills, the division has caught up to them, etc. Looking at the roster objectively and factoring in some of the TC news (and not overreacting to news out of camp), it is difficult to find an area of the team that should be worse in '23 than it was in '22 except MLB:

 

QB - Unless you think J Allen has had his career year(s) he will be no worse than the same.

RB - To err on side of being conservative, about the same though the optimist in me thinks Cook will be at least as good as Singletary and Harris/Murray > Rookie Cook/Hines/Moss

WR - Better - Diggs/Davis at worst the same, Harty/Sherfield/Shakir should be better than McKenzie/rookie Shakir/??? (last spot revolving door in '22)

OL - Better and better depth. McGovern a big upgrade, I think Torrence starts and Brown will be better. Only concern would be that we have seen peak Morse and Dawkins and their ceiling is probably the same. The interior OL depth is way better.

TE - I have 2 words for you Dalton  Kincaid - excitingly better. He very well could be the best addition to offense since Diggs (funny how that happens when you spend a first round pick on offense). 

DL - All back so at worst same but Floyd and Ford should make it better. Need Von Miller to come back at same level as '22. Contract year for Epenesa.

LBs - Worse without Edmunds

DBs - Better because of health of White, Poyer and Hyde, and another year of experience for Elam, Benford and Jackson make this possibly the most improved unit. 

Specialists - same guys 

Coaching - Dorsey year 2 better, McDermott calling defense > Frazier

 

One other comment about Elam: it is entirely possible that CB2 is a competition more so because Jackson and Benford have outperformed expectations rather than Elam having been a significant underperformer. I think the narrative needs to change. By all accounts Elam is having a pretty good camp and his performance in the playoffs last year was very good. The coaches recognize that. There aren't too many teams in the league that have 4-5 starter-worthy CBs, the Bills seem to have that with White, Johnson, Elam, Jackson and Benford. They do seem to have a knack of drafting roster-worthy DBs. 

[wppete]

Losing Edmunds is going to hurt. 

[GunnerBill]

It is only MLB that I think the team is definitely weaker on paper. The issue is I think that drop off is significant..... don't love any of our options there now that they have concluded it is too much for Williams as a rookie. I also think there remain questions about the secondary just because three older guys coming off injuries to differing extents is a legit concern. I hope they can play good football and stay healthy but it isn't a sure thing. 

[boyst]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

It is only MLB that I think the team is definitely weaker on paper. The issue is I think that drop off is significant..... don't love any of our options there now that they have concluded it is too much for Williams as a rookie. I also think there remain questions about the secondary just because three older guys coming off injuries to differing extents is a legit concern. I hope they can play good football and stay healthy but it isn't a sure thing. 

The secondary is interesting because we have reinvested into injured players: Hamlin, Hyde, Poyer. I like Marlowe more than most but am happy we have Rapp as insurance.

 

My trepidation in the secondary is the regression of Taron Johnson later in the season. We play nickel primarily. We cannot afford poor play here and while Neal could be a nickel on most teams and start - being a nickel player 60% of the time isn't for him. In Johnson we must trust. 

 

The LB unit is downgraded losing Edmunds. On paper it's major, as you noted. With better coverage on the DL adding Floyd, Puna, and Expenesa potentially breaking through will help. 

 

I think the dark horse is WR. I think it will be equal to last year. I don't see enough improvement on paper right now. 

[hondo in seattle]

25 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

It has been fascinating to hear many, especially in the national media, state things like the Super Bowl window is closing for the Bills, the division has caught up to them, etc. Looking at the roster objectively and factoring in some of the TC news (and not overreacting to news out of camp), it is difficult to find an area of the team that should be worse in '23 than it was in '22 except MLB:

 

QB - Unless you think J Allen has had his career year(s) he will be no worse than the same.

RB - To err on side of being conservative, about the same though the optimist in me thinks Cook will be at least as good as Singletary and Harris/Murray > Rookie Cook/Hines/Moss

WR - Better - Diggs/Davis at worst the same, Harty/Sherfield/Shakir should be better than McKenzie/rookie Shakir/??? (last spot revolving door in '22)

OL - Better and better depth. McGovern a big upgrade, I think Torrence starts and Brown will be better. Only concern would be that we have seen peak Morse and Dawkins and their ceiling is probably the same. The interior OL depth is way better.

TE - I have 2 words for you Dalton  Kincaid - excitingly better. He very well could be the best addition to offense since Diggs (funny how that happens when you spend a first round pick on offense). 

DL - All back so at worst same but Floyd and Ford should make it better. Need Von Miller to come back at same level as '22. Contract year for Epenesa.

LBs - Worse without Edmunds

DBs - Better because of health of White, Poyer and Hyde, and another year of experience for Elam, Benford and Jackson make this possibly the most improved unit. 

Specialists - same guys 

Coaching - Dorsey year 2 better, McDermott calling defense > Frazier

 

One other comment about Elam: it is entirely possible that CB2 is a competition more so because Jackson and Benford have outperformed expectations rather than Elam having been a significant underperformer. I think the narrative needs to change. By all accounts Elam is having a pretty good camp and his performance in the playoffs last year was very good. The coaches recognize that. There aren't too many teams in the league that have 4-5 starter-worthy CBs, the Bills seem to have that with White, Johnson, Elam, Jackson and Benford. They do seem to have a knack of drafting roster-worthy DBs. 

 

 

I agree with you nearly 100%.  But I think we have to acknowledge a lot of uncertainty.

 

Will Josh's UCL become a recurring problem?

Will Dorsey actually get better?

Will McD trying to wear two hats (HC & DC) at once prove to be a mistake?

Will our banged-up, aging DBs return to peak form?

How much of an impact will Kincaid have in his rookie year?

Can Von stay healthy?  If so, at what level of productivity?  

How good will Shakir, Harty, and Sherfield be?  

The OL seems improved but can it rise all the way to the level of averageness?  

Will MLB end up being the exploitable Achilles heel of this defense?  

Who's going to get hurt?

 

(Note: I've been a Bills fan for 40+ years so I've been trained to worry).  

 

 

 

[DeltaDigital]

32 minutes ago, wppete said:

Losing Edmunds is going to hurt. 

yea, now we get to see some half-drafted JAG make tackles 15 yards past the LOS and wag his arms around travis kelce while he runs through the middle of the defense. oh no, how are we ever going to replace 2 turn overs (maybe) a season with zero FF and 7 tackles behind the LOS? DOOMED. 

[ngbills]

The debatable:

WR - A lot of hope in Harty and Sherfield. If we flipped the script and last year had Harty/Sherfield and replaced with McK/Crowder/Brown we would believe that was an upgrade. I think folks are stuck on the we cant get worse mindset or "obviously" last years guys sucked.

RB - Similar to WR. People saw enough of Singletary. But he could be better than any RB we have on the roster. I am hopeful as a group this position is better,

OL - Repeat as stated above. The new is obviously better than the old. However, Saffold was an ex-pro bowler with high hopes. S Brown was expected to be an all pro. A year later we have a rookie that hopefully can contribute right away and a bunch of similar guys as we have seen in the past. Biggest concern is RT as if Brown cant protect the edge we are no using RB's and TE's to help which limits the offense even more. 

 

Worse:

LB - Edmunds is a big loss at a position that was already not deep. Outside of Milano we have a bunch of JAG's to nobody's. 

 

Better:

DL - Floyd and Ford are good additions

DB - Rapp is better depth at S

TE - Kincaid is upgrade assuming he is on the field which seems like he will be

 

No change

QB - Back up Keenum vs Back up Allen 

K - No changes

[Nextmanup]

Who says we are worse at MLB?  

 

Edmunds is extremely overrated and that's why we let him walk.

 

Anyone WITH SPEED can fit into his slot in that system and achieve similar results.

 

 

[ngbills]

Just now, Nextmanup said:

Who says we are worse at MLB?  

 

Edmunds is extremely overrated and that's why we let him walk.

 

Anyone WITH SPEED can fit into his slot in that system and achieve similar results.

 

 

 

1 minute ago, DeltaDigital said:

yea, now we get to see some half-drafted JAG make tackles 15 yards past the LOS and wag his arms around travis kelce while he runs through the middle of the defense. oh no, how are we ever going to replace 2 turn overs (maybe) a season with zero FF and 7 tackles behind the LOS? DOOMED. 

That is a very naïve mindset. It is one thing to say you would not may him $20M per, but to pretend that he is no different than a guy like Dodson, Spector, etc makes no sense. Edmunds is being paid like a top LB in the league because he is one. If he was not getting paid like he is there is no doubt he would be the starting MLB for the Bills. 

[SCBills]

MLB is the only spot we got worse at.  
 

Our secondary has question marks, which - if answered positively - puts us in the running for a Top 5 unit in the league. 
 

Milano is an elite OLB. 
 

DL is vastly improved, and if Von comes back at even 80% of what he was … this is a Top 5 DL (on paper) with Von, Rousseau, Floyd, Oliver, Jones and Ford.  

If you take into account Allen & Gabe’s injuries last year, with the additions of Kincaid, Torrence and McGovern .. I think it’s safe to say that every positional unit on Offense is much improved.  
 

Singletary isn’t bad.. but I hated him on this offense.  Give me speed or power at that position.   We now have both.  

Areas of concern:

 

-MLB 

-CB2 

-OL 

-Health (Von, Hyde, Tre)

 

We should be able to live with the drop off at MLB.  We didn’t invest heavily there, and we will have weaknesses moving forward with Allen’s contract hitting. 
 

CB2 and OL do not have excuses..  CB2 should be a strength given the investment and OL should, at the very least, be a middle of the pack unit once we get into the regular season. 

 

[mushypeaches]

I can't wait to hear Bears fans start complaining about Edmunds lack of stats, production, and overall inability to hit holes and/or shed blockers

 

But but but he's still young and learning, and wow look at his wingspan!

[Philly McButterpants]

12 minutes ago, ngbills said:

 

That is a very naïve mindset. It is one thing to say you would not may him $20M per, but to pretend that he is no different than a guy like Dodson, Spector, etc makes no sense. Edmunds is being paid like a top LB in the league because he is one. If he was not getting paid like he is there is no doubt he would be the starting MLB for the Bills. 

We'll see as the season progresses, but my long standing opinion was that Edmunds was "just a guy" out there. I don't foresee a drastic drop-off.

[Beck Water]

53 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

RB - To err on side of being conservative, about the same though the optimist in me thinks Cook will be at least as good as Singletary and Harris/Murray > Rookie Cook/Hines/Moss

 

So in some ways the RB room is upgraded.  Harris/Murray the more physical RBs we were told Moss would become.  Cook can hit the holes that Singletary couldn't.

 

But Singletary had become an excellent pass blocking RB.  And there's some concern whether Cook will "get it".

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, boyst said:

 

I think the dark horse is WR. I think it will be equal to last year. I don't see enough improvement on paper right now. 

 

Agree to an extent on WR. The reason I tend to see it as slightly upgraded is that last year we were one injury away from Jake Kumerow starting on the boundary and by week 2, hey presto, there was Jake Kumerow starting on the boundary. When he went down around Thanksgiving we re-signed the corpse of John Brown's football career because we had no other options split wide. I am not arguing that Sherfield or Harty are stars, but both of them have more flexibility to play split out than McKenzie, Crowder or Shakir. So at least there is a bit more flexibility to the depth. I feel like they have raised the floor of the top 5 receivers, though I don't think they have raised the ceiling unless a guy like Shorter emerges from nowhere. 

[MJS]

The team is objectively better at nearly every position group. RT and MLB are the big question marks. Can Spencer Brown take the next step? Who will play MLB?

 

Outside of that, the Bills are deeper everywhere. I get there is concern about WR, but it is still better than last year, plus we added a high-end pass catcher at TE.

 

If everyone thought the Bills were good going into last season, they should be even more confident now. The team is better, and healthy. The health of the team was a big hurdle last year.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

But Singletary had become an excellent pass blocking RB.  And there's some concern whether Cook will "get it".

 

This is a great point. One I'd not given a lot of thought to actually, but both Singletary and Zack Moss who we traded mid-season were very good pass protectors. Harris is solid in that regard but Cook struggled as a rookie. In his prime Latavius Murray was a very good pass protector. One of the best in fact. Hopefully he retains that ability. That might get him on the 53. 

[MJS]

5 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

So in some ways the RB room is upgraded.  Harris/Murray the more physical RBs we were told Moss would become.  Cook can hit the holes that Singletary couldn't.

 

But Singletary had become an excellent pass blocking RB.  And there's some concern whether Cook will "get it".

I'm not sure Singletary was excellent at pass blocking, but he was good. I'm not sure Cook is who you want out there for pass blocking. He is more slender. I'm sure Harris and Murray know what they are doing with pass blocking.

[Chicken Boo]

The secondary, perhaps.  Will Tre ever get back to elite form? Poyer and Hyde are a year older, coming off injury riddled seasons.

[MasterStrategist]

MLB is definitely worse on paper.  But, I'm gonna wait until we see what McDermott changes schemstically/subpackages, aggressive playcalls, etc.

 

No way they will straight up ask Dodson or Bernard to do what Tremaine did.  There's going to be changes. I think they can "piece" together a good MLB role, by using various subpackages (ie: Dime with Rapp, or Bernard who is a good Blitzer).

 

Tremaine took away alot of real estate, but had weaknesses too: quicker Rbs/matched up coverages, poor Blitzer, didn't generate enough turnovers.  His role can be replaced but will take more creativity from Sean and defensive coaches.  

 

On offense, if our pick ups perform to their potential, we are MUCH better at IOL and slot WR. Again on coaching, what is Dorsey going to adjust - to improve short area passing/middle of field, better redzone efficiency, etc.

 

On S/T, Hines was a top 5 returner.  Kickoffs I'm less concerned, with rule change, but on punts can Harty be dependable, or Shakir? We have very good backup options, just not Hines level.

[BuffaloBillyG]

I like Edmunds and am a big fan of what he brought to the table. Talent wise, losing him does downgrade the LB room.

 

However, I'm curious to see how losing Edmunds has a ripple affect on what the MLB position is asked to do. If they plug any of the guys in and ask them to do the same things Edmunds did it's not going to be good. If they adjust the role and ask more of a down hill type style, send on blitzes a bit more and don't drom the MLB into space 95% of the time (just an estimate) I think we will be fine.