MLB Battle

[boyst]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

Thanks, yeah, agree with you and all's well.  

 

Appreciate the confirmation.   

 

 

I think you're marvelous. Really. 

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

BTW, you're going to look pretty ridiculous if Klein does get cut.  Just sayin'.  

 

 

You're going to look ridiculous when he is all pro, super bowl MVP and cures cancer. 

[Brand J]

Didn’t we sign Floyd for the same money B Wagz and Lavonte David got? I know pass rushers are more of a premium, but I dunno, I think I’d trade Floyd for one of those other two MLBs today. 

[PBF81]

44 minutes ago, boyst said:

I think you're marvelous. Really. 

 

You're going to look ridiculous when he is all pro, super bowl MVP and cures cancer. 

 

Thanks.  I am. 

 

I'll look silly if he starts.  

 

 

[MasterStrategist]

43 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

Didn’t we sign Floyd for the same money B Wagz and Lavonte David got? I know pass rushers are more of a premium, but I dunno, I think I’d trade Floyd for one of those other two MLBs today. 

A little more actually.

 

Difficult to know who/what they tried to do at MLB during FA and draft.  

 

And too early to know what happens at MLB for us...Dodson is who he is, but Bernard might give us something (even if it's subpackage).  

 

I take Floyd all day, easier to scheme around a MLB, go dime/subpackage looks...prefer the pass rusher

 

 

[Beck Water]

 

1 hour ago, JayBaller10 said:

Didn’t we sign Floyd for the same money B Wagz and Lavonte David got? I know pass rushers are more of a premium, but I dunno, I think I’d trade Floyd for one of those other two MLBs today. 

 

16 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

A little more actually.

Difficult to know who/what they tried to do at MLB during FA and draft.  

And too early to know what happens at MLB for us...Dodson is who he is, but Bernard might give us something (even if it's subpackage).  

I take Floyd all day, easier to scheme around a MLB, go dime/subpackage looks...prefer the pass rusher

 

 

Lavonte David decided he wanted to stay with the Bucs - he's been in that area a minute (12 years) makes sense.

 

Bobby Wagner decided "you can go home again!" and got himself released from the Rams to go back to aweing the Seasnakes in practice.

 

Doesn't sound as though either of them were very interested in changing teams.

Edited August 1, 2023 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

On 7/31/2023 at 10:52 AM, boyst said:

He just didn't move my needle. 🤷🏼‍♂️

That he couldn't handle it, and Spector didn't find time there was telling.

 

 

Spector was a healthy scratch for the Vikes game. So he wasn't an option when Edmunds went down.  But I don't think they would have played him.

 

Fun fact so was Kaiir Elam, so the starting CBs were Dane Jackson and Christian Benford.  Starting safeties were Damar Hamlin and ....I kid you not, Cam Lewis (Jaquan Johnson was available and played ST)

Edited August 1, 2023 by Beck Water

[Brand J]

6 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

 

 

 

Lavonte David decided he wanted to stay with the Bucs - he's been in that area a minute (12 years) makes sense.

 

Bobby Wagner decided "you can go home again!" and got himself released from the Rams to go back to aweing the Seasnakes in practice.

 

Doesn't sound as though either of them were very interested in changing teams.

Both were on the market for a minute. The reason for that I’m not sure, but it’s likely both overvalued their worth. Lavonte is on record as saying the Bills reached out very late in the process, just when he decided to go back to TB and if Von Miller had reached out to him earlier “we might be having a different conversation.” Paraphrasing, but he said something along those lines. The Bills didn’t pursue either aggressively, but if they had, going home for one of them might not have happened. 

[Buffalo716]

18 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Let's take a step back slightly from "who will play MLB?" and think about the makeup of the linebacker room more generally:

 

What do we know:

1. The Bills under this regime have fluctuated between keeping 5 and 6 linebackers.

2. Last year they started with 6 on the roster and ended with 7 having added AJ Klein in-season.

3. Matt Milano is one of their best players and will be one of the 5/6 and start at WILL (I'm going to say WILL now for ease of reference but they do use him as the SAM in some true nickel looks whereas in their "base" Taron Johnson to all intents and purposes plays SAM).

4. The backup linebackers HAVE to play special teams. 

5. Tyler Matakevich is a Special Teams captain (their other one, Taiwan Jones, has moved on) and there are $0 cap savings associated with moving on from him. So I think we can pencil him in. 

6. I think it is a pretty safe assumption that, even though they have now reverted to their original post-draft position of "Williams is not competing at MLB", they are not cutting their most recent 3rd round pick and he will be Milano's backup. That means they have the WILL position covered.

 

Which probably gets us to: there are three spots up for grabs and four players competing: Terrel Bernard, Tyrel Dodson, AJ Klein and Braylon Spector.

 

From that group they are looking for their 2 best options at MLB. I suspect AJ Klein will get one of those spots as the vet insurance. The safe floor guy. Even if they tab someone else to start, if they have any doubt at all about their choice they will keep Klein. The only way Klein doesn't make it is if someone flat out just wins the job and is obviously the best player of the group, in which case they might feel secure enough with a developmental guy as the backup. But that feels like a long shot. 

 

That leaves it very likely as Bernard v Dodson v Spector. So what do we know about that battle:

1. The defensive depth chart last year was Dodson, Bernard, Spector. 

2. Special Teams usage last year was also Dodson, Bernard, Spector.

3. #2 is partly because Spector was the guy who was a healthy scratch most of the year. But ceiling wise he is the best STer.

4. Cutting Dodson offers $0 in cap savings. Bernard and Spector would offer $900k and $800k in savings respectively. 

5. Dodson is a one year contract. Bernard and Spector would both be cheap depth for a longer period. 

 

My view is you end up coming down to it is Dodson or Bernard, not both and then Spector as a STer who they still think they can develop some at LB (and is the option that gives them some size). Based on camp reports so far it seems like Dodson is the guy getting the most run with the 1st unit. I suspect that is another example of the Bills valuing familiarity and experience in the scheme. But then Bernard is a 2nd year player who they spent a 3rd rounder on. To this point the highest pick guy they have given up on in year two is Vosean Joseph, a 5th rounder, who was essentially beaten out by Dodson as an UDFA from the same class). If Bernard is the odd man out then a) that pick stands alone atop of the Beane Bust Tree and b) he would essentially be beaten out by Spector a 6th rounder from the same class. 

 

I'm a little confused by the wording in the bolded ...

 

You use true nickel and then base... But generally your "base" defense is what you line up in the most 

 

So the Bills "base" defense the last few seasons is undoubtedly nickel .... Where there are 2 named linebackers ... MIKE AND WILL

 

Now Milano always played the will in those situations but doesn't always line up weak side in nickel .. it's just a name ..  he actually does line up strong side in nickel tons ... TE side

 

Now if by base you mean our heavy 43 defense... Then yes when we went 43 it was Tremaine at MIKE , Milano at SAM and Dodson/klein at WILL

 

But Taron Johnson isn't out there in the 43 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 2, 2023 by Buffalo716

[Sierra Foothills]

53 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

Both were on the market for a minute. The reason for that I’m not sure, but it’s likely both overvalued their worth. Lavonte is on record as saying the Bills reached out very late in the process, just when he decided to go back to TB and if Von Miller had reached out to him earlier “we might be having a different conversation.” Paraphrasing, but he said something along those lines. The Bills didn’t pursue either aggressively, but if they had, going home for one of them might not have happened. 

 

Fair enough JB but I'm happy to see the season play out and see if the money was properly allocated... and I'm certainly not going to assume that it wasn't.

 

I think I can speak for many Bills fans that there was extreme concern about our pass rush without Von Miller.

 

I think very many Bills fans are feeling good about our pass rush now with the signing of Leonard Floyd.

 

[BigAl2526]

With Klein, what you see is what you get.  His skill set allows him to do some things as a MLB and not others.  McDermott would definitely have to tweak the defense to allow Klein to be a fit.  Bernard also has a limited skill set.  It is a different skill set than Klein possesses.  In particular, his size is going to make it tough to him to take on bigger offensive players be they offensive linemen, running backs or tight ends.  He should be good in coverage and have better overall range than Klein.  Spector is smallish too, though not as small as Bernard.  He's also not as fast, but neither is he as limited athletically as Klein.  I think Dodson probably has the best overall blend of athleticism and size in the whole group, but I also think it's taken him the first several years of his career to get up to speed with where he needs to be mentally as a middle linebacker in this system.  The question on Dodson is, Is he there yet?  If he can handle it mentally, I think he's the leader in the race.  I agree with others that Klein is probably insurance in case nobody else can handle it.   It should be noted that all this is opinion and conjecture only and I have no expertise.  Thake it with a huge grain of salt.

 

[Saxum]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

while I don't think AJ will end up on the PS he IS eligible. You can have guys with as many vested years as you like on the PS now. That has been the rule for a while - since 2016. But there are a limit on the number of those guys. It started at 2 but is now up to 6. So basically you can keep whoever you want these days as long as they don't get signed to someone else's active roster.

 

NFL teams can also protect practice squad players.  Four players can be protected each week, so they can’t be signed by another team off their practice squad.  I can see this being an issue with a player if another team wants and needs player on practice squad and team keeps protecting him every week to keep player out of other teams roster.  

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

I'm a little confused by the wording in the bolded ...

 

You use true nickel and then base... But generally your "base" defense is what you line up in the most 

 

So the Bills "base" defense the last few seasons is undoubtedly nickel .... Where there are 2 named linebackers ... MIKE AND WILL

 

Now Milano always played the will in those situations but doesn't always line up weak side in nickel .. it's just a name ..  he actually does line up strong side in nickel tons ... TE side

 

Now if by base you mean our heavy 43 defense... Then yes when we went 43 it was Tremaine at MIKE , Milano at SAM and Dodson/klein at WILL

 

But Taron Johnson isn't out there in the 43 

 

 

 

I disagree with your last point. Taron plays as ostensibly a strong side linebacker a fair amount. PFF had it as about 20% of defensive snaps in 2022. 

 

I put base in inverted commas because I agree the Bills' base is nickel. But people often use base as a way of distinguishing a 43 from lining up in nickel. And my point on Milano was exactly the one you make he lines up on the strong side a ton in nickel. 

 

[Buffalo716]

41 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I disagree with your last point. Taron plays as ostensibly a strong side linebacker a fair amount. PFF had it as about 20% of defensive snaps in 2022. 

 

I put base in inverted commas because I agree the Bills' base is nickel. But people often use base as a way of distinguishing a 43 from lining up in nickel. And my point on Milano was exactly the one you make he lines up on the strong side a ton in nickel. 

 

I would like to see the snaps where taron Johnson is playing strong side linebacker and not Nickel back

 

And yes Milano lines up in the nickel formation on the strong side majority but that is because he primarily covers TEs in man and it's easier setup..  naming purposes he's still a Will to the Mike like a classic 2 ILB system

 

Milano has been playing the SAM in the 43 for a few years now 

 

 

 

Edited August 2, 2023 by Buffalo716

[GunnerBill]

21 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I would like to see the snaps where taron Johnson is playing strong side linebacker and not Nickel back

 

And yes Milano lines up in the nickel formation on the strong side majority but that is because he primarily covers TEs in man and it's easier setup..  naming purposes he's still a Will to the Mike like a classic 2 ILB system

 

Milano has been playing the SAM in the 43 for a few years now 

 

 

I promise you they are there on Taron. That is our only point of disagreement here. 

 

I know the names in a 2 ILB system are Mike and Will. Not everyone on the board understands stuff the way you do. I was trying to keep it simple for people. Getting bogged down in when a Will actually plays weak side and it is just a position name isn't particularly user friendly to 80% of the board. 

[LarryMadman]

FWIW the Bills LBs are quite small, listed they are

Dodson 6...237

Milano 6...223

Bernard 6'1...222

Klein 6'1...240

Spector 6'2...230

 

Size wise they are all the same, interested to see who wins the battle, will also be interested to see how Milanos game is without Edmunds. 

[Buffalo716]

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I promise you they are there on Taron. That is our only point of disagreement here. 

 

I know the names in a 2 ILB system are Mike and Will. Not everyone on the board understands stuff the way you do. I was trying to keep it simple for people. Getting bogged down in when a Will actually plays weak side and it is just a position name isn't particularly user friendly to 80% of the board. 

I still would like to see Taron at the SAM

 

I'm working right now but surely you should be able to find two clips of him playing SAM linebacker 

[Nephilim17]

Thinking the over/under for Harty's yards this year is 50 is foolish — unless he gets hurt again and misses the season. And that's possible.

 

In 2021 he had 59 targets for 570 yards. He was injured last season and had only 2 targets.

 

I don't expect him to be WR 3 but he may be a capable 4 or 5. Reports from camp suggest he has more speed than McKenzie. And I hope more brains. 

If he can stay healthy for 3/4 of the year I bet he outperforms McKenzie's 2022 production. If someone here wants to put $50 down on that, I'll e-transfer money to a mod here for that bet. And I'll certainly take any bet on up to $100 for the 50 yards total (I'm taking over).

Edited August 4, 2023 by Nephilim17

[ColoradoBills]

On 8/2/2023 at 7:48 AM, LarryMadman said:

FWIW the Bills LBs are quite small, listed they are

Dodson 6...237

Milano 6...223

Bernard 6'1...222

Klein 6'1...240

Spector 6'2...230

 

Size wise they are all the same, interested to see who wins the battle, will also be interested to see how Milanos game is without Edmunds. 

 

They are all the "same" size wise.  Which brings me to a question.  Beane and McDermott seem to have purposely done this.

It's a completely different profile from what they had with Edmunds.  IF they knew that Edmunds was most likely to command more

$s then they could afford it shows me that a change in "scheme" for the MLB was considered.

 

So, the question I have for those who know more is this.  What kind of "hybrid" scheme could they be considering?  Having McDermott taking

over the D could also give this idea credence.

 

I had thought the maybe the MLB role would be platooned depending on down and distance and opponents' personnel and habits.

If that is true, the only thing that would confuse me is who then wears the green dot helmet because the MLB would be a constant variable.

 

I can't help but wonder why Beane and McDermott have "broke the mold" on the standard LB body type, but it does seem to be a conscious decision. 

[LABILLBACKER]

On 8/1/2023 at 3:42 PM, JayBaller10 said:

Didn’t we sign Floyd for the same money B Wagz and Lavonte David got? I know pass rushers are more of a premium, but I dunno, I think I’d trade Floyd for one of those other two MLBs today. 

With Von probably not playing right away, Floyd's ability to put pressure on the qb will be far more valuable than whatever is missing from the Edmunds loss. I can easily see us sign a FA Mike next season as Dorian will be groomed to backup Milano.  Bernard was just a terrible selection and poor scouting.

[akcash]

Dodson changed his number to 25!

Edited September 2, 2023 by akcash