MLB Battle

[MasterStrategist]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Let's take a step back slightly from "who will play MLB?" and think about the makeup of the linebacker room more generally:

 

What do we know:

1. The Bills under this regime have fluctuated between keeping 5 and 6 linebackers.

2. Last year they started with 6 on the roster and ended with 7 having added AJ Klein in-season.

3. Matt Milano is one of their best players and will be one of the 5/6 and start at WILL (I'm going to say WILL now for ease of reference but they do use him as the SAM in some true nickel looks whereas in their "base" Taron Johnson to all intents and purposes plays SAM).

4. The backup linebackers HAVE to play special teams. 

5. Tyler Matakevich is a Special Teams captain (their other one, Taiwan Jones, has moved on) and there are $0 cap savings associated with moving on from him. So I think we can pencil him in. 

6. I think it is a pretty safe assumption that, even though they have now reverted to their original post-draft position of "Williams is not competing at MLB", they are not cutting their most recent 3rd round pick and he will be Milano's backup. That means they have the WILL position covered.

 

Which probably gets us to: there are three spots up for grabs and four players competing: Terrel Bernard, Tyrel Dodson, AJ Klein and Braylon Spector.

 

From that group they are looking for their 2 best options at MLB. I suspect AJ Klein will get one of those spots as the vet insurance. The safe floor guy. Even if they tab someone else to start, if they have any doubt at all about their choice they will keep Klein. The only way Klein doesn't make it is if someone flat out just wins the job and is obviously the best player of the group, in which case they might feel secure enough with a developmental guy as the backup. But that feels like a long shot. 

 

That leaves it very likely as Bernard v Dodson v Spector. So what do we know about that battle:

1. The defensive depth chart last year was Dodson, Bernard, Spector. 

2. Special Teams usage last year was also Dodson, Bernard, Spector.

3. #2 is partly because Spector was the guy who was a healthy scratch most of the year. But ceiling wise he is the best STer.

4. Cutting Dodson offers $0 in cap savings. Bernard and Spector would offer $900k and $800k in savings respectively. 

5. Dodson is a one year contract. Bernard and Spector would both be cheap depth for a longer period. 

 

My view is you end up coming down to it is Dodson or Bernard, not both and then Spector as a STer who they still think they can develop some at LB (and is the option that gives them some size). Based on camp reports so far it seems like Dodson is the guy getting the most run with the 1st unit. I suspect that is another example of the Bills valuing familiarity and experience in the scheme. But then Bernard is a 2nd year player who they spent a 3rd rounder on. To this point the highest pick guy they have given up on in year two is Vosean Joseph, a 5th rounder, who was essentially beaten out by Dodson as an UDFA from the same class). If Bernard is the odd man out then a) that pick stands alone atop of the Beane Bust Tree and b) he would essentially be beaten out by Spector a 6th rounder from the same class. 

 

Good breakdown. 

 

My thoughts...

1.Starting MLB is really going to boil down to Dodson vs Bernard.  Loser of that is a primary backup, but both these guys are making the team

 

2. I don't think Spector is a serious candidate for the starting MLB role.  He needs to at least be "close" to Kleins level on S/T AND some growth at playing MLB, OR straight up outperform Klein on S/T

 

3. Klein is the perfect/ideal P/S guy for us.. but he makes this team if either: see above about Spector OR Dorian looks completely lost at WLB (in which case, I think they try to sneak Spector back to the P/S)

 

My guess: we keep 6, Klein to the P/S, and Dodson starts the year at MLB.  I'm expecting more subpackages for MLB, so Dodson might only get 70% of snaps per game

[boyst]

38 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

My thoughts as well.  Klein's a 32 year-old below average LB.  No significant cap hit and hasn't done much of anything in his most recent appearances.  

 

Does he qualify for the practice squad though?  

 

 

a guy playing in the nfl for 10 consecutive seasons is below average?

 

AJ will be on the active roster because he can play all 3 linebacker positions, is a playing coach, and a leader on the team.

[Beck Water]

 

[Beck Water]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Let's take a step back slightly from "who will play MLB?" and think about the makeup of the linebacker room more generally:

 

What do we know:

1. The Bills under this regime have fluctuated between keeping 5 and 6 linebackers.

2. Last year they started with 6 on the roster and ended with 7 having added AJ Klein in-season.

3. Matt Milano is one of their best players and will be one of the 5/6 and start at WILL (I'm going to say WILL now for ease of reference but they do use him as the SAM in some true nickel looks whereas in their "base" Taron Johnson to all intents and purposes plays SAM).

4. The backup linebackers HAVE to play special teams. 

5. Tyler Matakevich is a Special Teams captain (their other one, Taiwan Jones, has moved on) and there are $0 cap savings associated with moving on from him. So I think we can pencil him in. 

6. I think it is a pretty safe assumption that, even though they have now reverted to their original post-draft position of "Williams is not competing at MLB", they are not cutting their most recent 3rd round pick and he will be Milano's backup. That means they have the WILL position covered.

 

Which probably gets us to: there are three spots up for grabs and four players competing: Terrel Bernard, Tyrel Dodson, AJ Klein and Braylon Spector.

 

From that group they are looking for their 2 best options at MLB. I suspect AJ Klein will get one of those spots as the vet insurance. The safe floor guy. Even if they tab someone else to start, if they have any doubt at all about their choice they will keep Klein. The only way Klein doesn't make it is if someone flat out just wins the job and is obviously the best player of the group, in which case they might feel secure enough with a developmental guy as the backup. But that feels like a long shot. 

 

That leaves it very likely as Bernard v Dodson v Spector. So what do we know about that battle:

1. The defensive depth chart last year was Dodson, Bernard, Spector. 

2. Special Teams usage last year was also Dodson, Bernard, Spector.

3. #2 is partly because Spector was the guy who was a healthy scratch most of the year. But ceiling wise he is the best STer.

4. Cutting Dodson offers $0 in cap savings. Bernard and Spector would offer $900k and $800k in savings respectively. 

5. Dodson is a one year contract. Bernard and Spector would both be cheap depth for a longer period. 

 

My view is you end up coming down to it is Dodson or Bernard, not both and then Spector as a STer who they still think they can develop some at LB (and is the option that gives them some size). Based on camp reports so far it seems like Dodson is the guy getting the most run with the 1st unit. I suspect that is another example of the Bills valuing familiarity and experience in the scheme. But then Bernard is a 2nd year player who they spent a 3rd rounder on. To this point the highest pick guy they have given up on in year two is Vosean Joseph, a 5th rounder, who was essentially beaten out by Dodson as an UDFA from the same class). If Bernard is the odd man out then a) that pick stands alone atop of the Beane Bust Tree and b) he would essentially be beaten out by Spector a 6th rounder from the same class. 

 

 

Good writeup as usual, Gunner, with interesting points, so Thank You for that.

 

I'm curious about how you see point #3 about Spector's "ceiling wise he is the best STer"?

 

It's a fact that Spector was actually a healthy scratch much of the year, and when he did play, between him and Bernard, Bernard still got more ST snaps.

 

Is this just hypothetical, based on athleticism and size?

[PBF81]

4 minutes ago, boyst said:

a guy playing in the nfl for 10 consecutive seasons is below average?

 

AJ will be on the active roster because he can play all 3 linebacker positions, is a playing coach, and a leader on the team.

 

So in your opinion Klein's an above-average LB then.  

 

OK.  Noted.  

 

I'd be curious on what basis, other than non-performance related measures such as the above that you based your opinion on.  That's something we can discuss.  

 

Out of curiosity, did the comment on his age prompt any thoughts in your rush to opine?  

 

 

[Beck Water]

15 hours ago, boyst said:

I like that you use that word patience. I think that sums up what I did not see last year, and it might be confusing to some. His hustle to the ball was genuine, but it seemed like he broke out of assignments, lost discipline on the overall scheme, and just played more like a backyard style ball that an actual piece of this defense.

 

Is built to be a symbiotic unit. As strong as their weakest link in every sense of the term. Losing Gap integrity, tell Richard responsibility, and the vision needed to play middle linebacker in this defense is very costly. This is something that people jumped all over Edmunds about but he is truly an athletic freak that allowed him to recover with not just his size but his quickness to react. The sharper I always criticized that he was too late to react or recognize the place.

 

Anyway, time will tell. And I hope I'm wrong. It's not like seeing preseason action of this guy last year is 100% the story but I am a pessimist in this regard

 

Agree - McDermott's defense is totally designed to be a symbiotic unit where the whole is much greater than the sum of the parts - and it can fail and give up big plays when one guy is out of position.

 

It fascinates me, actually.  I'm forgetting who did a great breakdown on the 1st NWE game in 2021.  We played some base D with Dodson, and whoever broke it down pointed out how Poyer chose the wrong gap and gave up a big gain, because Dodson looked the wrong way towards one gap, but then covered the other.  Interesting look at the intricacies of how these guys communicate with each other on the field.

 

Fans in preseason go for "eye candy" and can get all enthused about players like Tank Carder or Kiko Alonso who are actually free-lancing out of position and going for the ball - which can make for a big play at times, but is not what NFL defense is all about.

 

14 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

So in your opinion Klein's an above-average LB then.  

 

OK.  Noted.  

 

I'd be curious on what basis, other than non-performance related measures such as the above that you based your opinion on.  That's something we can discuss.  

 

Out of curiosity, did the comment on his age prompt any thoughts in your rush to opine?  

 

 

 

AJ Klein

 

First, it would help if you would explain what you mean by "below average player". 

Are you talking "no longer a starter"? 

 

But most teams keep 5 or 6 LB.  Are you thinking, relative to the 180 or so LB that are signed to NFL rosters for half or so of the games during a given season, he's in the bottom 90?

 

Whatever your metric is, what is your basis for your opinion that he is a below average player?

 

That's something we can discuss.

Edited August 1, 2023 by Beck Water

[Sierra Foothills]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

My thoughts as well.  Klein's a 32 year-old below average LB.  No significant cap hit and hasn't done much of anything in his most recent appearances.

 

IMO Klein has never been a below average LB. There are limitations to his game that the team masks well but also, that he more than makes up for in other aspects of his game.

 

43 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Dodson is apparently starting with the 1s today which breaks up the MLB rotation. Today would have been Spector's turn. Could mean he's out of the running, or could be random.

 

The thing I simply can't wrap my head around is Dodson starting. I thought he looked lost last year and it was his 3rd year in the system. Maybe I'm wrong and the difference between him succeeding and failing is less than I think.

 

[GunnerBill]

24 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Good writeup as usual, Gunner, with interesting points, so Thank You for that.

 

I'm curious about how you see point #3 about Spector's "ceiling wise he is the best STer"?

 

It's a fact that Spector was actually a healthy scratch much of the year, and when he did play, between him and Bernard, Bernard still got more ST snaps.

 

Is this just hypothetical, based on athleticism and size?

 

And ST play at Clemson, yep. 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

The thing I simply can't wrap my head around is Dodson starting. I thought he looked lost last year and it was his 3rd year in the system. Maybe I'm wrong and the difference between him succeeding and failing is less than I think.

 

 

Dodson is the clubhouse leader IMO. I have felt that throughout. He was very poor against Cleveland last year when he started, but he rebounded well the next week against Detroit and he had a decent game vs Pittsburgh on his other start too (albeit they were bad). I think he was better than Bernard was when he got on the field. 

 

I don't love the Dodson idea because he struggles in coverage IMO, but I think Bernard struggled with everything. 

[boyst]

24 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

So in your opinion Klein's an above-average LB then.  

 

OK.  Noted.  

 

I'd be curious on what basis, other than non-performance related measures such as the above that you based your opinion on.  That's something we can discuss.  

 

Out of curiosity, did the comment on his age prompt any thoughts in your rush to opine?  

 

 

Gosh you're adorable.

 

So, logic is something that we can work on.  Grab your planet fitness card, brah, cuz we gonna get a workout on.

 

See, by me declaring that I believe Klein is not below average it doesn't mean I think he is above average. It means I think he's not below average. He could be average, excellent, terrible, anything in my opinion. But that opinion isnt linked to the process of critical thinking I am exercising.

 

Mutual exclusive doesn't mean it can only be one or the other. My statement is simply that he is not below average after serving 10 years in the capacity of an NFL linebacker.

 

Now that we are warmed up, calisthenics! We gonna stretch that mind out. 

 

In the modern NFL there are very few if any complete NFL MLB. It's a demanding position to be able to stuff a run, read a QB, and cover a TE, shadow a RB, and keep up with a slot WR. So, while Klein is not able to keep up with many receiving threats he is smart and capable of not losing position. He, like many - almost all - MLB's lack the full toolbox that would be perfect. This is a major factor to consider he is above average - he's smart, he can shed blocks, he can move through traffic without getting caught up in the scrum

 

Now that we are good and warmed up and properly stretched. Here is a big load to bare. Opinions can vary, don't have to match, and can be discussed... Then people can disagree! Novel concept!

 

If you'd like a cool down I can further discuss how Klein started in Wisconsin and through his young career the speed he lacked was sufficient to play in the NFL in that era (7-10 years ago).  Or I can explain how in this system the 1/11 of the responsibility of the player does not mean Klein has to be all pro to be a contributor. McDermott can get a lot out of LB's. He did this with Thompson, and before Milano with Davis.

 

I can make this a master class if you'd like. I have time...

[GunnerBill]

41 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Good breakdown. 

 

My thoughts...

1.Starting MLB is really going to boil down to Dodson vs Bernard.  Loser of that is a primary backup, but both these guys are making the team

 

 

Agree that the job comes down to these two, but I am not sold that they both make the team. If it is a close run battle where neither really wins the job so much as the Bills decide to go with the least worst option then I remain of the view that they will keep Klein on the 53 as the insurance policy and the loser of the starting battle will be out. 

 

41 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

2. I don't think Spector is a serious candidate for the starting MLB role.  He needs to at least be "close" to Kleins level on S/T AND some growth at playing MLB, OR straight up outperform Klein on S/T

 

Agree. I don't think he is a starting MLB option either in 2023. 

 

41 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

3. Klein is the perfect/ideal P/S guy for us.. but he makes this team if either: see above about Spector OR Dorian looks completely lost at WLB (in which case, I think they try to sneak Spector back to the P/S)

 

My guess: we keep 6, Klein to the P/S, and Dodson starts the year at MLB.  I'm expecting more subpackages for MLB, so Dodson might only get 70% of snaps per game

 

As I said to @HappyDays for Klein to be stashed on the PS I think they have to feel pretty good about the guy that has won the starter battle. I just don't have a ton of confidence that they will be. My guess is Dodson starts (agree re. subpackages), Klein is the backup MLB and Bernard is the odd man out. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

15 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Agree

 

 

At 32 he may be the best option there, but he ain't gettin' any faster and 4.5 of those sacks and one of the two FFs were clumped up in three games in 2020, he hasn't had a sack or FF since in over 500 defensive snaps.  

 

Last season he had 86 defensive snaps (not sure at which LB position, presumably MLB), to Dodson's 220 and Bernard's 110.  

 

 

If it’s not Klein then hopefully Bernard puts it all together. Or possibly they can get some kind of MLB rotation going like they do on the defensive line and see who separates themselves. 

[JohnBonhamRocks]

I know he’s a DE, but I think Floyd should be considered in this numbers game. Not for “MLB” or “ILB”, but I do think he ends up deployed as a hybrid 3-4 OLB type who figures to handle some coverage and OLB-like responsibilities. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

Dodson is apparently starting with the 1s today which breaks up the MLB rotation. Today would have been Spector's turn. Could mean he's out of the running, or could be random.

So he started be Cleveland. I didn’t really think much about that game. Went back and watched. Stat line looked good. 9 solo tackles but none for loss. Didn’t do anything else stat wise.

 

I turned it off when QB Jacoby Brissett made him look like a fool in the open field. 1v1 and Brissett juked him and Dodson wiffed.
 

I don’t think Dodson is starting quality.

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

So he started be Cleveland. I didn’t really think much about that game. Went back and watched. Stat line looked good. 9 solo tackles but none for loss. Didn’t do anything else stat wise.

 

I turned it off when QB Jacoby Brissett made him look like a fool in the open field. 1v1 and Brissett juked him and Dodson wiffed.
 

I don’t think Dodson is starting quality.

 

He sucked in that game. Watch the next week against Detroit when he started again. He played much better that day. I agree I don't really think he is starting quality. He is a backup level player. I fear he may be the best of the bunch though unless they want to go pure placeholder with Klein and it looks like they don't. Unless of course this camp battle is to narrow it down to a winner who then competes with Klein in pre-season?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He sucked in that game. Watch the next week against Detroit when he started again. He played much better that day. I agree I don't really think he is starting quality. He is a backup level player. I fear he may be the best of the bunch though unless they want to go pure placeholder with Klein and it looks like they don't. Unless of course this camp battle is to narrow it down to a winner who then competes with Klein in pre-season?

I don’t think we know anything about Bernard yet. Can’t really judge from his rookie year. He obviously needed some time from watching rookie snaps.

 

Rashaan Evans is sitting out there for cheap. We’ll see what happens.

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I don’t think we know anything about Bernard yet. Can’t really judge from his rookie year. He obviously needed some time from watching rookie snaps.

 

Rashaan Evans is sitting out there for cheap. We’ll see what happens.

 

Oh Bernard was terrible when he got on the field. He couldn't line up right, he couldn't hit his gap, he couldn't tackle, he couldn't run, he couldn't cover. Now I get it - limited sample size. And he was a rookie. But he looked totally overmatched and overwhelmed against the Jets. Based on what they showed on the field last year he has a significant gap to close to even be on a par with Dodson. 

 

EDIT: I don't hate the Evans idea. It would be a learning curve for him playing in a 4-3 though. He has played his entire career in a 3-4. not sure he is exactly a pick up this late, plug and play option. 

Edited August 1, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Buffalo_Stampede]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Oh Bernard was terrible when he got on the field. He couldn't line up right, he couldn't hit his gap, he couldn't tackle, he couldn't run, he couldn't cover. Now I get it - limited sample size. And he was a rookie. But he looked totally overmatched and overwhelmed against the Jets. Based on what they showed on the field last year he has a significant gap to close to even be on a par with Dodson. 

 

EDIT: I don't hate the Evans idea. It would be a learning curve for him playing in a 4-3 though. He has played his entire career in a 3-4. not sure he is exactly a pick up this late, plug and play option. 

If you’re not ready mentally everything will suffer. It’s impossible to know how Bernard will play after a full offseason in the same defense.

 

It does seem like Dodson is their choice as of now with only Bernard as a challenger.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Dodson is the clubhouse leader IMO. I have felt that throughout. He was very poor against Cleveland last year when he started, but he rebounded well the next week against Detroit and he had a decent game vs Pittsburgh on his other start too (albeit they were bad). I think he was better than Bernard was when he got on the field. 

 

I don't love the Dodson idea because he struggles in coverage IMO, but I think Bernard struggled with everything. 

 

I agree that from what we've seen so far, Dodson struggles in coverage.

 

I wonder if you've got your  games mixed a bit, though.  Pittsburgh was one of Dodson's starts.  The other two were Cleveland and Detroit, true - but I think vs. Detroit, the team started in base, because Klein and Milano played 100% of the LB snaps vs. Detroit.

 

Dodson played most of the game vs. Minnesota, though.  Edmunds started, but left due to injury and Dodson played 2/3 of the snaps.  And I think that's where he looked very bad in coverage - but to be fair, Minnesota was a top passing team for both attempts and yards so it was a strong test.

[Beck Water]

47 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

So he started be Cleveland. I didn’t really think much about that game. Went back and watched. Stat line looked good. 9 solo tackles but none for loss. Didn’t do anything else stat wise.

 

I turned it off when QB Jacoby Brissett made him look like a fool in the open field. 1v1 and Brissett juked him and Dodson wiffed.
 

I don’t think Dodson is starting quality.

 

I reluctantly agree with you, which is kind of a scary thought; if the plan is to start either Dodson or Bernard, I fear that's a Bad Plan.

 

38 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He sucked in that game. Watch the next week against Detroit when he started again. He played much better that day. I agree I don't really think he is starting quality. He is a backup level player. I fear he may be the best of the bunch though unless they want to go pure placeholder with Klein and it looks like they don't. Unless of course this camp battle is to narrow it down to a winner who then competes with Klein in pre-season?

 

Again, vs Detroit, both Milano and Klein started and played 100% of the snaps and Dodson only shows as a 'starter' because the Bills started out in base, with Dodson getting the nod.  Dodson only played 10 defensive snaps vs. Detroit (14%)

 

To be fair, against Cleveland, that was the week the Bills practice schedule was severely disrupted due to weather, thus in a week where the LB needed more coaching and more prep, they got less.

 

The most concerning game to me is Minnesota.  he played about 2/3 of that game for Edmunds, and looked bad.  Of course, he was straight subbing in for the Edmunds-based game plan vs. having a game plan tailored to his skills.